# Do you think Trump will win in 2020? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 19, 2019, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728 "2019-06-19T01:50:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 25
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2019, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/481 "2019-07-30T22:10:33Z")
At this point I think Trump will in fact win again. The reason why is simple. He already has a strategy that works. The Democrats are scrambling to figure out what their strategy will be. At this point they’re doing so to try to win the primary, but even after that, the nominee is going to have to regroup and figure out a strategy for moving forward in the general. More responsibility; more stress; more work; more uncertainty. All Trump has to do is say “we’ve had four great years and we’re going to have FOUR! MORE! GREAT! YEARS!” or some variant thereof. He will hang on to his base. That’s a given. Can the Democrats get enough turnout in the swing states to make up for that? Maybe, but they’re fighting an uphill battle. That means, advantage = Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2019, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/482 "2019-07-30T23:51:15Z")
> [@Lamoral](#): > > At this point I think Trump will in fact win again. The reason why is simple. He already has a strategy that works. The Democrats are scrambling to figure out what their strategy will be. At this point they’re doing so to try to win the primary, but even after that, the nominee is going to have to regroup and figure out a strategy for moving forward in the general. More responsibility; more stress; more work; more uncertainty. All Trump has to do is say “we’ve had four great years and we’re going to have FOUR! MORE! GREAT! YEARS!” or some variant thereof. He will hang on to his base. That’s a given. Can the Democrats get enough turnout in the swing states to make up for that? Maybe, but they’re fighting an uphill battle. > > That means, advantage = Trump. His “strategy” only works on a certain group, a demographically distinct group declining as a percentage of the electorate. While we’ve had four good years economically, we’ve also had four years to observe an unhinged Trump drunk with power. I don’t think we yet have a handle on how many he has horrified, though post-election polls after the midterms give us some idea. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2019, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/483 "2019-07-31T03:37:15Z")
Cosign RW. To expand on that: after the shitshow we have seen (as opposed to a hope among some reluctant 2016 Trump voters that he would pivot to being a strong and dignified CEO once the gravity of the office settled upon him), if any reasonable Democratic nominee can’t win, we are fucked as a country. It’s a litmus test on the American people. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2019, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/484 "2019-07-31T03:59:54Z")
Beto! I thought he had a great debate, and: [https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/455313-poll-beto-orourke-leads-2020-democrats-in-texas-by-3-points-followed-by](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/455313-poll-beto-orourke-leads-2020-democrats-in-texas-by-3-points-followed-by) > [@](#): > > Four of the six leading primary candidates in Texas beat Trump in a general election mockup, based on the poll. > O’Rourke holds the strongest lead over Trump, at 48.8 percent to 37.6 percent. Warren holds a 40.7 to 38.2 percent lead, Sanders holds a 39.2 to 37.3 percent lead, and Harris tops Trump with 39.8 percent to 38.5 percent. > Trump holds a lead over Biden, the Democratic frontrunner, though only two-tenths of a point separate the two candidates. Trump wins 37.1 percent to Biden’s 36.9 percent. Trump has a larger lead overButtigieg, taking 38.6 percent to Buttigieg’s 33 percent. He has already qualified for the next debate, where he will have more time to hammer this electability argument. I guarantee you, the Trump people see this and thank their lucky stars that he is so low in the polls among Democrats nationally. Losing Texas would checkmate them. ---
**Author:** ![MyFootsZZZ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/myfootszzz/32/12580_2.png) [@MyFootsZZZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MyFootsZZZ)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2019, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/485 "2019-07-31T04:19:41Z")
This poll scares the shit out of me. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2019, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/486 "2019-07-31T04:28:06Z")
How so? ---
**Author:** ![MyFootsZZZ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/myfootszzz/32/12580_2.png) [@MyFootsZZZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MyFootsZZZ)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2019, 8:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/487 "2019-07-31T08:08:59Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > How so? Something ‘Straight Doped’ often has a lefty bias. If almost half think Trump is going to be president in 2020, that’s scary to me. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2019, 9:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/488 "2019-07-31T09:30:31Z")
> [@MyFootsZZZ](#): > > Something ‘Straight Doped’ often has a lefty bias. If almost half think Trump is going to be president in 2020, that’s scary to me. 2016 is still fresh in our minds. And looking at the numbers objectively tells us that '20 is going to be another close one. I’m hopeful but the current president holds a couple of important advantages. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2019, 10:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/489 "2019-07-31T10:19:30Z")
> [@MyFootsZZZ](#): > > Something ‘Straight Doped’ often has a lefty bias. If almost half think Trump is going to be president in 2020, that’s scary to me. Funny, I see it the opposite way. Lefty bias means, for many people, pessimism bordering on paranoia. Many seem for instance to sincerely believe we are literally on the verge of “The Handmaid’s Tale”. So getting 50% to see Trump’s vulnerability is a sign of how great that vulnerability is. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2019, 12:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/490 "2019-07-31T12:00:23Z")
Maybe what I should have said was that a “lefty” board like the Dope represents itself well in this poll by refusing to look at an objective issue in a partisan or cheerleading manner. Trump shouldn’t win in any advanced society. But Trump can certainly win again, with the help of tens of millions of disgruntled voters and an antiquated and unrepresentative electoral system. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2019, 12:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/491 "2019-07-31T12:06:05Z")
Or with the help of behavioral economics and a clumsy approach to universal healthcare, which I just [started a thread about.](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=879651) ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2019, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/492 "2019-07-31T13:20:58Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Very interesting article: > > [MSN](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/how-third-party-votes-sunk-clinton-what-they-mean-for-trump/ar-AAF1Evx?ocid=spartanntp&fbclid=IwAR3mOiNnFwtnPuVMwGnyWTXWHQ-xxDK8eqWZJjs7tlvboVWqJzWzMquBNb0) > > \*An astounding 7.8 million voters cast their presidential ballots for someone other than Trump or Hillary Clinton. The two biggest third-party vote getters were Libertarian Gary Johnson (almost 4.5 million votes) and Green Party nominee Jill Stein (1.5 million voters). But others received almost another 1.9 million votes, as well. > > Libertarians and Greens may try to convince you that this reflects growing support for their parties. It doesn’t. > > Their strong showing was due to the unpopularity of the two major party nominees…An astounding 7.8 million voters cast their presidential ballots for someone other than Trump or Hillary Clinton. The two biggest third-party vote getters were Libertarian Gary Johnson (almost 4.5 million votes) and Green Party nominee Jill Stein (1.5 million voters). But others received almost another 1.9 million votes, as well. > > [Election assistance agency pleads for more money ahead of 2020] > > Libertarians and Greens may try to convince you that this reflects growing support for their parties. It doesn’t. > > Their strong showing was due to the unpopularity of the two major party nominees.\*" > > So if the Libertarians and Greens have learned their lesson about trump, this next elections should be a dem win. “Our candidate got more votes than ever before in the last election - therefore, I should vote for the Democrat” is not the lesson that leaps out from the article, at least for me. And I voted Libertarian in 2016. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2019, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/493 "2019-07-31T14:17:27Z")
In 2016, the election results were not completely legitimate but we didn’t fully know it at the time. A concern I have is that in 2020, we’ll have a very tight election with similar doubts about legitimacy, but this time, we’ll know it the days and weeks that follow. It sets up a dynamic that is ripe for social unrest. There’s been a lot of speculation about how the right would react if it lost the election, but I worry about that from the left as well. To be clear: the left would be justifiably outraged, but I wonder what the reaction would be, and I worry also about how President Trump and his retooled federal police force (perhaps even a _posse comitatus_) would react to that reaction. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2019, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/494 "2019-07-31T18:33:20Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > “Our candidate got more votes than ever before in the last election - therefore, I should vote for the Democrat” is not the lesson that leaps out from the article, at least for me. And I voted Libertarian in 2016. So, we can blame trump on you. Good to know. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2019, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/495 "2019-07-31T18:36:55Z")
Hmm. Close race here. I wonder if this means Dopers are overly pessimistic, or just realists. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2019, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/496 "2019-07-31T18:44:46Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > Hmm. Close race here. I wonder if this means Dopers are overly pessimistic, or just realists. Obviously none of us are fortune tellers but my take is that there’s we have essentially four front-runners right now, and I suspect that Bernie’s ceiling is not much higher than what it is right now, so that means we might be down to three good candidates, leaving open the possibility that a dark horse could emerge. All of those top tier candidates are vulnerable. I don’t see anyone right now who makes me think “Oh that guy/lady would kick Trump’s ass all over the place.” As nutbar as this is going to sound, maybe it’s going to take someone like Marianne Williamson to go toe-to-toe with Trump. And yes, I know how nutbar that sounds - my keyboard is covered with little bits of grains as I type it out. But if you look at her debate style and how she performs in front of a camera, it’s hard not to think “Yeah, I could see her being a viral candidate, and I could see her standing up to Trump.” I have to confess to being irritated that she’s sharing the stage with the rest of the field, but I simultaneously admit to being impressed with her oratory. She may be a little league candidate but her speaking skills are major league. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2019, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/497 "2019-07-31T19:02:22Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Obviously none of us are fortune tellers but my take is that there’s we have essentially four front-runners right now, and I suspect that Bernie’s ceiling is not much higher than what it is right now, so that means we might be down to three good candidates, leaving open the possibility that a dark horse could emerge. All of those top tier candidates are vulnerable. I don’t see anyone right now who makes me think “Oh that guy/lady would kick Trump’s ass all over the place.” > > As nutbar as this is going to sound, maybe it’s going to take someone like Marianne Williamson to go toe-to-toe with Trump. And yes, I know how nutbar that sounds - my keyboard is covered with little bits of grains as I type it out. But if you look at her debate style and how she performs in front of a camera, it’s hard not to think “Yeah, I could see her being a viral candidate, and I could see her standing up to Trump.” I have to confess to being irritated that she’s sharing the stage with the rest of the field, but I simultaneously admit to being impressed with her oratory. She may be a little league candidate but her speaking skills are major league. Honestly, is Williamson winning the Presidency any less laughable a year+ out than Trump was? I don’t think so. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2019, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/498 "2019-07-31T19:09:49Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > Honestly, is Williamson winning the Presidency any less laughable a year+ out than Trump was? I don’t think so. I think that’s why I put it out there. Yes, it’s nutbar to suggest that Williamson could be a real candidate (and I’m not necessarily arguing she is without the evidence to support it in the polls), but we live in nutty times. #WhynotWilliamson? ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2019, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/499 "2019-07-31T19:16:31Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > But- gawd- please no, Hillary, please. I voted for you, but your time on the presidential stage is over. Maybe Secy of State again, that’d be nice. From a strategy point I agree with you, but if I’m going to be totally honest I’ve got to admit that all else being equal if politics were put aside, I would rather have Hillary as president than any of the current slate of Democratic hopefuls. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2019, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/500 "2019-07-31T20:11:22Z")
Williamson has oratory for miles. But…no. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=24) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=26)