# Do you think Trump will win in 2020? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 19, 2019, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728 "2019-06-19T01:50:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2019, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/41 "2019-06-19T17:08:55Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > No. My reasoning: > 1- He isn’t running against Hillary > 2- People are getting tired of his shtick. > 3- Democrats are energized > 5- Women are terrified about him nominating more SC justices > 6- Farmers have been getting screwed by his tariffs > 8- The middle class saw no benefits to his tax cuts > 9- Decent people are offended by seeing refugee children in cages > 11- He has been exposed as the racist piece of shit that he is > 12- Those mining and manufacturing jobs never came back (Duplicates removed from quote) 1. If they can vilify Hillary and make it stick, they can do that to anybody. 2. Those people never supported Trump in the first place. His approval rating hasn’t changed more than a few percent. 3. Trump supporters are also energized. 4. 2018 Senate election showed that SC justices aren’t very important to Democratic voters, but _are_ important to Republican voters. 5. Most voters aren’t farmers. 6. The middle class weren’t hurt by tax cuts either. And many think the tax cuts helped improve the economy. 7. Decent people didn’t vote for Trump to begin with. 8. He was exposed as a racist piece of shit long before the 2016 election. 9. Most people don’t know that. ---
**Author:** ![Unreconstructed\_Man](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/76d3ee/32.png) [@Unreconstructed\_Man](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Unreconstructed_Man)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2019, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/42 "2019-06-19T17:11:04Z")
Until we know who he’s running against, it’s pointless to speculate about the result. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2019, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/43 "2019-06-19T17:11:29Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > I won’t be shocked if he wins again. Horribly disappointed, but not shocked. Who would have thought that “horribly disappointed” could be a gross understatement? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2019, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/44 "2019-06-19T17:14:25Z")
No, Trump wont win, becuase: 1. No Comey letter. 538 put that as the #1 reason Hillary lost. 2. The Dems will remember 2016 and campaign harder in battleground states. 3. The Russian trolls won’t have as much of a impact. Facebook, etc are wise to them, and to a lesser extent so is the American voter. 4. Tump lied to the rust belt to get their votes. Their factory jobs have not come back (and they can’t). They are angry and disillusioned. Biden has the best chance, but many others could do it also. I suspect Sanders and Buttigieg are the main two losers. Even tho i am no Harris fan, she could beat trump. Beto, Warren, a good shot. **If** Beto can bring in Texas, he’s in. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2019, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/45 "2019-06-19T17:18:42Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > 1. The Russian trolls won’t have as much of a impact. Facebook, etc are wise to them, and to a lesser extent so is the American voter. What makes you think that? Remember the fake Pelosi video a couple of weeks ago? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2019, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/46 "2019-06-19T17:28:12Z")
> [@scr4](#): > > What makes you think that? Remember the fake Pelosi video a couple of weeks ago? Yes, but that was very quickly discredited, so fast I never even saw the original. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2019, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/47 "2019-06-19T17:47:19Z")
I voted no, based on this simple if speculative reasoning: no one who didn’t like Trump in 2016 will be motivated to turn around and vote for him now, while many people\* who were unmotivated to vote (or maybe willing to give him the benefit of the doubt against Hilary) in 2016 will now be motivated by what they’ve seen to vote against him. \*How many? It doesn’t have to be millions. 70,000 in the right states would have done the trick in 2016, and the mid-terms make me confident that at least that many will come through in 2020. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2019, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/48 "2019-06-19T17:52:27Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Not to flog a deceased equine, but let’s remember that Clinton won the popular vote by 3 MILLION. > > Has anyone ever calculated how big a popular vote margin Clinton could have won by and still lost the Electoral vote? It depends where the votes are. Win by huge margins in CA and NY, lose by a hair in TX, FL, PA, MI, and WI, and the popular vote win with EC loss could be much much bigger. Theoretically. You’ve got to win those last three states. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2019, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/49 "2019-06-19T17:56:13Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Not to flog a deceased equine, but let’s remember that Clinton won the popular vote by 3 MILLION. > > Has anyone ever calculated how big a popular vote margin Clinton could have won by and still lost the Electoral vote? > [@DSeid](#): > > It depends where the votes are. > > Win by huge margins in CA and NY, lose by a hair in TX, FL, PA, MI, and WI, and the popular vote win with EC loss could be much much bigger. Theoretically. > > You’ve got to win those last three states. This is important. And disturbing. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2019, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/50 "2019-06-19T17:58:35Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > It depends where the votes are. > > Win by huge margins in CA and NY, lose by a hair in TX, FL, PA, MI, and WI, and the popular vote win with EC loss could be much much bigger. Theoretically. > > You’ve got to win those last three states. No, if the Dems win Fla, the numbers change. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2019, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/51 "2019-06-19T18:53:39Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > No, if the Dems win Fla, the numbers change. Correct, there is just about no way for a Republican to win the presidency without Florida. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2019, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/52 "2019-06-19T19:05:08Z")
> [@Unreconstructed\_Man](#): > > Until we know who he’s running against, it’s pointless to speculate about the result. Job Number One is for Dems to convince one another that they will be voting for the Democratic candidate named “Not Donald Trump,” sorta like the Orlando Sentinel suggested yesterday. Oops, I guess in the interest of fair play that’s the “failing” Orlando Sentinel. ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2019, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/53 "2019-06-19T19:11:06Z")
Trump supporters (most Republicans) are one- or two-issue voters: abortion, gun rights Democrats have too many issues to promote and must also defend themselves from the single issue people. This makes their efforts too dilute to be effective. So, Trump. (gawd help us all) ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2019, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/54 "2019-06-19T19:30:18Z")
**KarlGauss** , don’t forget about the single-issue voters whose one issue is “libtard tears”. They’re an important part of Trump’s coalition, too. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2019, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/55 "2019-06-19T19:38:59Z")
> [@KarlGauss](#): > > Trump supporters (most Republicans) are one- or two-issue voters: abortion, gun rights > > Democrats have too many issues to promote and must also defend themselves from the single issue people. This makes their efforts too dilute to be effective. > > So, Trump. > > (gawd help us all) Single issue gun votes are maybe 5% of gun owners, and they have voted GOP for quite some time, we still got Obama and Bill Clinton. Trump is no friend to gun owners, anyway. Same with abortion, since on the left you got single issue Choice voters. ---
**Author:** ![Mean\_Mr.Mustard](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mean_mr.mustard/32/3865_2.png) [@Mean\_Mr.Mustard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mean_Mr.Mustard)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2019, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/56 "2019-06-19T20:58:37Z")
> [@Unreconstructed\_Man](#): > > Until we know who he’s running against, it’s pointless to speculate about the result. More pointless than posting that a thread is pointless? mmm ---
**Author:** ![CAH66](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7bcc69/32.png) [@CAH66](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CAH66)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2019, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/57 "2019-06-19T21:08:22Z")
I think he’ll win. As soon as the Democrats replace “Not Donald Trump” with a real name on the ballot it’s going to be downhill for them. Trump has a rock solid base that won’t abandon him under any foreseeable circumstance, and it’s dispersed enough to leverage the electoral map better than the Democratic field is. He’ll fight dirty as hell, relentlessly attacking any opponent with no regard for the truth, and based on what I see on FaceBook, he’ll have an army of followers who are as truth-agnostic as he is. At the end of the election, the politics of division and fear is going to resonate more than anything and anyone the Democrats put forth. I hope I am proven wrong, but my faith in America and my fellow citizens is certainly lower than it’s ever been. ---
**Author:** ![Translucent\_Daydream](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/translucent_daydream/32/16170_2.png) [@Translucent\_Daydream](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Translucent_Daydream)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2019, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/58 "2019-06-19T21:26:12Z")
I don’t see how he doesn’t get re-elected, excepting a recession or a botched disaster response. (Others have said this too, and I agree with it.) Maybe its for the best. He is going to fuck shit up, of course, but the economy is going to hit the crapper sooner or later. If Rando-Democrat gets elected in 2020 and there is a recession right after they hit office, President Rando-D gets blamed for it. The Republican party, who’s “stay the fuck on message ability” is vastly more superior than the DNC’s, points to the recession and they get elected again. The House Democrats are literally playing politics with the whole Mueller affair anyway, and people are seeing it. If they feel he should be impeached, they should just do it already, whether or not they are going to get the senate to convict. Its not supposed to matter if you are going to succeed if you are supposed to “do the right thing”. If they aren’t really doing it, then the trust isn’t there. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2019, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/59 "2019-06-19T21:28:08Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Yes, but that was very quickly discredited, so fast I never even saw the original. I thought Facebook was refusing to take it down. It’s “discredited” only if you subscribe to (like/follow) liberal groups on Facebook. That’s the problem with Facebook. Every user’s experience is different. And mostly, our Facebook experience is determined by what advertisers want each of us to see. A Bernie supporter sees what advertisers want Bernie supporters to see. A Warren supporter sees something different. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2019, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/60 "2019-06-19T21:31:58Z")
[**For True Trump Believers, the Magic Isn’t Lost**](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/06/trump-2020-campaign-kickoff-orlando/592018/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheAtlantic+%28The+Atlantic+-+Master+Feed%29) From Orlando… > [@](#): > > Under the tent, Joseph Belnome, a 43-year-old white man from New Jersey with “Trump” and “2020” stenciled in white eyeliner on either side of his buzz cut, looks at the sea of people with pride. “I’ve been following Trump since the day that he came down the escalator,” he says. “And I never regretted that decision because he’s been keeping every promise that he’s made since day one. And I’ve been defending him ever since because he’s been criticized and ridiculed ever since.” > … > > Joining Belnome is Nick Fadael, a 29-year-old black man from New York. Fadael wears a red MAGA hat—though not the one Trump signed when he visited the White House as part of Turning Point USA’s Young Black Leadership Summit last fall. That one, Fadael says, he framed. “He’s not a politician to me. He’s one of us who happened to be sent to the White House to get the job done,” Fadael tells me. “Usually politicians lie; they don’t keep their promises or anything like that, and POTUS—promises made, promises kept. He’s the first guy who’s been ridiculed and bashed because he’s keeping his promises.” > > A high moment of the past two years for Belnome, he says, was Trump’s “exoneration by the Mueller report.” (Trump was not exonerated by the Mueller report.) “That was a proud moment because I knew he’s been telling the truth from the beginning, and now it’s been proven by our Justice Department.” Really, though, he adds, “when is there not a proud moment when you have Donald Trump as your president?” Fadael jumps in. “Here’s what I’m most proud of,” he says. “He tweeted yesterday that those millions of people that got into the border are being deported ASAP. That one: number one.” As the rain stops, the two say they plan to go find the Fox News tent. > … > > Rick Carter, a 58-year-old white man, is here from Indiana for his fourth rally. His self-designed cap and T-shirt both read: My president tweets!!! “Ever since he was elected president, they say they didn’t like it,” he explains, referring to the media and/or Democrats, “and when they don’t like something, I love it.” > … > > “So,” she _[“Chris,” a Trump supporter]_ says, turning back to me. “I’m here today because I think he’s the greatest president there ever was in this country.” I ask her if there’s anything Trump could do that would make her rethink her support. “No,” she says. > … What delusional planet are these people living on? There’s more, but I can’t read any more. ☹ \ [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=4)