# Do you think Trump will win in 2020? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 19, 2019, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728 "2019-06-19T01:50:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 30
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2019, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/581 "2019-08-14T22:30:52Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I recall a saying (paraphrased) that everyone wants someone who says out loud what they are thinking deep down in private. Trump did that for many evangelicals. If the deranged blather being ejected from Trump’s face hole is what’s knocking around in their heads, they’re even more profoundly fucked up than I thought. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2019, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/582 "2019-08-16T13:01:29Z")
**[Trump at N.H. rally: ‘You have no choice but to vote for me’](https://a.msn.com/r/2/AAFSLJ5?m=en-us&referrerID=InAppShare)** > [@](#): > > MANCHESTER, N.H. — Even as markets show signs of a coming recession, President Donald Trump told New Hampshire voters Thursday that they had to support his re-election campaign or suffer the economic consequences. > > “I won the election, the markets went up thousands of points, things started happening,” Trump said at a rally here. “If, for some reason, I were not to have won the election, these markets would have crashed. That will happen even more so in 2020. You have no choice but to vote for me, because your 401(k), everything is going to be down the tubes.” > > “Whether you love me or hate me, you have got to vote for me,” he added. > > Trump, appearing at his first campaign stop in New Hampshire this year, delivered a wide-ranging speech lasting more than 90 minutes that addressed Hillary Clinton’s emails, eradicating the AIDS epidemic and the prospects of the nearly two dozen Democrats running for president against him. > > … What an arrogant SOB. Glad he managed to work Hillary’s emails into it. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2019, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/583 "2019-08-16T14:03:42Z")
Nice economy we got here. Be a shame if something happened to it. I could do a lot of damage on the way out the door, you wouldn’t want that, would you? ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2019, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/584 "2019-08-16T20:45:05Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > \*\*[Trump at N.H. rally: ‘You have no choice but to vote for me’](https://a.msn.com/r/2/AAFSLJ5?m=en-us&referrerID=InAppShare) > \*\*What an arrogant SOB. Glad he managed to work Hillary’s emails into it. :rolleyes: [Turns out I didn’t cover the speech as thoroughly as it deserved:](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/08/trumps-new-hampshire-rally-was-2016-throwback/596269/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheAtlantic+%28The+Atlantic+-+Master+Feed%29) > [@](#): > > MANCHESTER, N.H.—During a rally in the nation’s first primary state last night, President Donald Trump delivered two hours’ worth of musings on his favorite topics, including, in the order mused: the 2016 election, “fake polls,” the “fake news media,” crowd size, “fake witch hunts,” the success of “Make America Great Again” as a slogan, China tariffs, farmers, “Sleepy Joe” Biden, “Pocahontas,” personnel matters at The New York Times, socialism, communism, the Green New Deal, the military, Barack Obama, jobs, the stock market, the unemployment rate, law enforcement, Democrats calling people Nazis, the Border Patrol, faith, the American flag, freedom, “America First,” receiving the nonexistent honor of Michigan’s “Man of the Year,” Mexico, winning Pennsylvania, winning North Carolina, winning South Carolina, winning Florida, Hillary Clinton’s emails, ethanol, Rudy Giuliani, Corey Lewandowski, NAFTA, tax cuts, coal, oil, the effect of windmills on property values, steel and aluminum, Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, China’s currency manipulation, the Wall Street Journal editorial board, globalism, violent crime, how guns are shot, the Second Amendment, the opioid epidemic, the progress of a border wall, drug smuggling, sanctuary cities, illegal immigrants, voter-ID laws, “the Democrat Party,” Obamacare, late-term abortion, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, astronauts, Mars, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, rockets, the Iran nuclear deal, moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, the American dream, eradicating AIDS, curing childhood cancer, and, again, winning. > … I guess that’s all the important stuff. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2019, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/585 "2019-08-17T02:44:49Z")
Yep, trump will win. All the dems are busy doing the GOPs job for them and tearing down each other, especially the frontrunner. “Bidens too old!” (Except Sanders is older and trump is almost as old) etc, etc. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2019, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/586 "2019-08-17T03:17:55Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Yep, trump will win. All the dems are busy doing the GOPs job for them and tearing down each other, especially the frontrunner. > > “Bidens too old!” (Except Sanders is older and trump is almost as old) > > etc, etc. Dude, chill. I’m not a fan of Sanders, but at least Sanders isn’t withdrawing himself from public view because his handlers are afraid of how he’ll look in front of the camera. Joe Biden doesn’t look like he’s a candidate for president right now; he looks like he’s a candidate for a retirement home. I came into the race leaning toward Biden, and I don’t think he would be a particularly disastrous president, but he looks weak on camera and there’s no getting around that. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2019, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/587 "2019-08-19T20:20:15Z")
"huge danger sign for Trump in new NBC/WSJ poll: among white women without college degrees, Trump trails generic 2020 Democrat by 6 percentage points in 2016, exit polls showed him beating Hillary among those voters by 27 percentage points." > Link to poll: [https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6297116-NBCWSJ-August-2019-Poll.html](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6297116-NBCWSJ-August-2019-Poll.html) ---
**Author:** ![GreysonCarlisle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@GreysonCarlisle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreysonCarlisle)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2019, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/588 "2019-08-19T21:24:00Z")
[Trouble in paradise?](https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/19/politics/donald-trump-fox-news/index.html) > [@](#): > > Before he boarded Air Force One to fly back to Washington on Sunday afternoon, President Donald Trump was asked about a recent [Fox News poll](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-most-back-gun-restrictions-after-shootings-trump-ratings-down) that showed him in serious trouble vis a vis the 2020 election. Trump, as he is wont to do, went off at length on his once-favorite network. > … > Unsurprisingly, Trump didn’t like that. Here’s the key bit: > > “Well, Fox has always given me – I’ll tell you, Fox is a lot different than it used to be, I can tell you that. … Fox has changed. And my worst polls have always been from Fox. There’s something going on at Fox, I’ll tell you right now. And I’m not happy with it.” > > “There’s something going on at Fox.” ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2019, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/589 "2019-08-19T21:55:35Z")
“My worst polls have always been from Fox”, lol. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2019, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/590 "2019-08-19T23:06:07Z")
> [@GreysonCarlisle](#): > > [Trouble in paradise?](https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/19/politics/donald-trump-fox-news/index.html) Fox abandoning Trump? Reminds me of the headline: “Rats Desert Stinking Shit” ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2019, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/591 "2019-08-20T12:12:40Z")
For the purposes of this thread I would like to point out that Anthony Scaramucci predicts that Trump will resign by March. My birthday is in March. Oh, PLEASE, let this happen! 😉 Link: > **[The Mooch Says He Was ‘Wrong’ About Trump In Blistering Op-Ed](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/anthony-scaramucci-trump-ends-support_n_5d5b41fce4b0f667ed676432)** > > The Mooch said he isn't "seeking absolution," but felt it was time to warn voters that Trump shouldn't be re-elected. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2019, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/592 "2019-08-20T12:19:35Z")
Scaramucci is, at best, slightly less a colossal fool now than before. More likely he’s still just a lying opportunist trying to figure out which way the wind is blowing. Just like he (probably) was before. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2019, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/593 "2019-08-20T12:31:14Z")
Oh, no doubt. But! It’s still a data point for this thread. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2019, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/594 "2019-08-20T14:55:46Z")
The idea that Democrats should not impeach Trump, because it may rile up his voters and be a detriment to their chances in the presidential election, has been brought up here and elsewhere. In an [article at Salon.com](https://www.salon.com/2019/08/17/this-political-scientist-completely-nailed-the-2018-blue-wave-heres-her-2020-forecast/) Rachel Bitecofer addresses this, not directly, but suggestively, in an interview: > [@](#): > > I’m also able to show that even in these districts [in the Virginia 2017 election] where Democrats ran Blue Dog candidates who were as unobtrusive as possible — with, exactly as you stated, the goal of not riling up Trump voters — the turnout for Republican voters in those districts was huge. > > In fact, not only did Democrats not get the benefit of not stirring up the Trump base — the Trump base was stirred up and showed up in huge numbers — but by not tapping into anti-Trump sentiment in their own campaign strategy, by not intentionally activating that Trump angst, they paid a price in terms of their own base turnout. It was depressed, compared to other districts. She will be releasing her full data after Labor Day, but this suggestive of sort of what I and others have said elsewhere, in a nutshell: _the best course for Democrats is to go after Trump with impeachment without fear of riling up anyone. They are already riled up._ In other news from that article, she is predicting a Democrat victory at this point, with 278 electoral votes, and has other interesting things to say, especially about the midwest, if anyone is interested. > [@](#): > > My model for 2020 starts off with Democrats at 278 Electoral College votes, and that’s a problem for Trump, because of course you need 270 to win. It does that because of my model’s prediction, based on turnout and predicted vote share, that Pennsylvania and Michigan will slip back to the Democrats. I’m uncertain about Ohio, but even if Trump wins Ohio, he can’t win the other three Midwestern states. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2019, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/595 "2019-08-20T15:22:53Z")
If there are clear high crimes and misdemeanors and the House fails to impeach due to political considerations then agreed, the political Realpolitik would likely backfire. And we can leave what are clear high crimes and misdemeanors for another thread. Politically the investigation of such crimes needs to not be the major focus and order of business though. The House has to first and foremost be seen as trying to do the business of governance (with the Senate and the president continuing to be the operatives of No.) both can be done at the same time and one must be in the spotlight. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2019, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/596 "2019-08-20T16:07:15Z")
> [@Fiddle\_Peghead](#): > > The idea that Democrats should not impeach Trump, because it may rile up his voters and be a detriment to their chances in the presidential election, has been brought up here and elsewhere. In an … It’s not “riling up”. Its the fact that trump will be proven “Not Guilty”. Thus to all the fence sitters, it will be evidence that the Dems were just on a witch hunt and that trump is innocent. The Senate will _not_ vote to remove/convict. ---
**Author:** ![Translucent\_Daydream](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/translucent_daydream/32/16170_2.png) [@Translucent\_Daydream](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Translucent_Daydream)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2019, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/597 "2019-08-20T16:18:36Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > For the purposes of this thread I would like to point out that Anthony Scaramucci predicts that Trump will resign by March. > > My birthday is in March. Oh, PLEASE, let this happen! 😉 > > Link: > > [Anthony Scaramucci Says He Was ‘Wrong’ About Trump In Blistering Washington Post Op-Ed | HuffPost Latest News](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/anthony-scaramucci-trump-ends-support_n_5d5b41fce4b0f667ed676432) So whats the deal in March? Whats looming around that would want him to bounce specifically then? If its in the article, sorry to ask. I can’t get it to load for some reason. It has a pop up ad on it that seems to hose it from loading. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2019, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/598 "2019-08-20T16:45:04Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > It’s not “riling up”. Its the fact that trump will be proven “Not Guilty”. Thus to all the fence sitters, it will be evidence that the Dems were just on a witch hunt and that trump is innocent. > > The Senate will _not_ vote to remove/convict. I highly doubt anyone here is so deluded as to believe theSenate would convict (barring something happening that causes Trump’s very base to abandon ship). Who do you mean by the fence sitters? The potentially swingable are Romney Trump voters, who get that Senate failure to convict is political only, and Obama Trump voters, who likely think both impeachment and conviction are purely acts of political theater. I don’t see many who would be convinced of his innocence by this would did not already believe it. If the evidence is overwhelming maybe a couple the other way. Do what history demands as the right thing depending on what the case is. Abdicate that demand at a turnout deficit cost. ---
**Author:** ![Crotalus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crotalus/32/41_2.png) [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2019, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/599 "2019-08-20T17:12:42Z")
What the article JohnT linked to says is that Trump will drop his re-election bid by March. > [@TheMooch](#): > > He also predicted that Trump would drop out of the 2020 presidential race by March as he realized the tide of discontent had grown against him. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2019, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/600 "2019-08-20T17:29:37Z")
> [@Translucent\_Daydream](#): > > So whats the deal in March? Whats looming around that would want him to bounce specifically then? > > If its in the article, sorry to ask. I can’t get it to load for some reason. It has a pop up ad on it that seems to hose it from loading. Oh, nothing. Scaramooch is promoting his book and is merely making waves. I don’t think he could make the case for March, either. 🙂 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=29) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=31)