# Do you think Trump will win in 2020? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 19, 2019, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728 "2019-06-19T01:50:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 31
**Author:** ![Translucent\_Daydream](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/translucent_daydream/32/16170_2.png) [@Translucent\_Daydream](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Translucent_Daydream)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2019, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/601 "2019-08-20T17:39:47Z")
I was hoping it was leporiphobia. Fear of bunnies. What else is coming in March besides the Easter Bunny? ---
**Author:** ![Crotalus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crotalus/32/41_2.png) [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2019, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/602 "2019-08-20T17:39:51Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Oh, nothing. Scaramooch is promoting his book and is merely making waves. I don’t think he could make the case for March, either. 🙂 Mooch’s prediction concerning March would only make sense if there were a significant primary challenge to Trump. Super Tuesday in 2020 is March 3. Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia will all hold their presidential primaries on that date. But that is unlikely to happen. I am not sure that Trump’s vaunted base is big enough to win him a second term, but it is damned sure big enough to win Republican primaries. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2019, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/603 "2019-08-20T17:48:44Z")
> [@Translucent\_Daydream](#): > > I was hoping it was leporiphobia. Fear of bunnies. What else is coming in March besides the Easter Bunny? (April 12th, 2020). ---
**Author:** ![Translucent\_Daydream](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/translucent_daydream/32/16170_2.png) [@Translucent\_Daydream](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Translucent_Daydream)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2019, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/604 "2019-08-20T18:01:01Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > (April 12th, 2020). See, I’ll let you in on a little secret, okay? Just because the big day may or may not be in April, the Easter Bunny gets started early. He is creeping around, doing his thing. [Honest to God documentary on The REAL EASTER BUNNY](https://youtu.be/YDNSK5Jkqvc) ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2019, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/605 "2019-09-04T13:47:47Z")
The “need for chaos” drives thump supporters. [ **The Trump Voters Whose ‘Need for Chaos’ Obliterates Everything Else** _Political nihilism is one of the president’s strongest weapons._](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/04/opinion/trump-voters-chaos.html?emc=rss&partner=rss) > [@](#): > > Over the four years during which he has dominated American political life, nearly three of them as president, Donald Trump has set a match again and again to chaos-inducing issues like racial hostility, authoritarianism and white identity politics. > > Last week, at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, the winner of the best paper award in the Political Psychology division was [“A ‘Need for Chaos’ and the Sharing of Hostile Political Rumors in Advanced Democracies.”](https://psyarxiv.com/6m4ts/) > > The paper, which the award panel commended for its “ambitious scope, rigor, and creativity,” is the work of Michael Bang Petersen\* and Mathias Osmundsen, both political scientists at Aarhus University in Denmark, and Kevin Arceneaux, a political scientist at Temple. > > It argues that a segment of the American electorate that was once peripheral is drawn to “chaos incitement” and that this segment has gained decisive influence through the rise of social media. > > “The rise of social media provides the public with unprecedented power to craft and share new information with each other,” they write. In the political arena, this technological transformation allows the transmission of a type of information that portrays “political candidates or groups negatively” and has “a low evidential basis.”\*\* The “new information” transmitted on social media includes “conspiracy theories, fake news, discussions of political scandals and negative campaigns.” > > The circulation of this type of information (which the authors label “hostile political rumors”) has been “linked to large-scale political outcomes within recent years such as the 2016 U.S. presidential election.” > … > > The authors describe “chaos incitement” as a “strategy of last resort by marginalized status-seekers,” willing to adopt disruptive tactics. Trump, in turn, has consistently sought to strengthen the perception that America is in chaos, a perception that has enhanced his support while seeming to reinforce his claim that his predecessors, especially President Barack Obama, were failures. > > Petersen, Osmundsen and Arceneaux find that those who meet their definition of having a “need for chaos” express that need by willingly spreading disinformation. **Their goal is not to advance their own ideology but to undermine political elites, left and right, and to “mobilize others against politicians in general.” These disrupters do not “share rumors because they believe them to be true. For the core group, hostile political rumors are simply a tool to create havoc.”** > … > > While Trump’s focus on disorder and chaos worked to his advantage during the 2016 campaign, there is no guarantee that he will benefit from it when he is an incumbent seeking re-election. > > As the 2018 election demonstrated, Trump’s personally chaotic approach to governance, his record of undermining relations with allies and strengthening ties to autocrats; his use of trade policy to heighten market insecurity; his aggression, his recklessness, his incessant lying; and his sneering contemptuous, bullying style, together worked against him and the Republican Party. > … > > The phrase “like to see the democratic system go down” is chilling — and raises the question: How worried should we be about a fundamental threat to democracy from the apparently large numbers of Americans who embrace chaos as a way of expressing their discontent? Might Trump and his loyal supporters seek to bring down the system if he is defeated in 2020? What about later, if the damage he has inflicted on our customs and norms festers, eroding the invisible structures that underpin everything that actually makes America great? > > A political leader who thrives on chaos, relishes disorder and governs on the principle of narcissistic self-interest is virtually certain to find defeat intolerable. > … My bold. This is a really long article, which I have not done justice to with my edits. It supports what we’ve said all along: there is no strategy behind the president’s so-called “policies.” “Drain the swamp” in essence means “bring down the whole shootin’ match!” (excuse the expression). It’s the message of destruction that appeals to his base, not the promise that he is going to make life good for them. So when he doesn’t deliver on The Good Life, that’s okay, as long as the libruls are in tears at the end of it. He says he’s never heard of a Category 5 storm?? HE IS a Category 5 storm. Destruction for all in his path as he blows back to where he came from, untouched and unchanged. \*Michael Bang Peterson-- is that the BEST researcher’s name you’ve ever heard? He should just start writing it \*“Michael ! Peterson.” \* \*\*“a low evidential basis” :rolleyes: That’s Scholar Talk for LIES. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2019, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/606 "2019-09-04T14:33:05Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Oh, nothing. Scaramooch is promoting his book and is merely making waves. I don’t think he could make the case for March, either. 🙂 Mooch is a dick but maybe he’s on to something. It is possible that the recession arrives in late 2019 or early 2020. Farmers and factory workers might be sick of taking a bullet for the madman’s stupidity. Polls may show Biden on his way to a landslide. With that in his face, Donald may prefer resignation to a humiliating defeat. He may come up with butt spurs that prevent him from sitting in the Oval Office or say he needs to devote full time to supervising Tiffany’s diet. We can always hope. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2019, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/607 "2019-09-04T16:35:15Z")
> [@Translucent\_Daydream](#): > > I was hoping it was leporiphobia. Fear of bunnies. What else is coming in March besides the Easter Bunny? What is the technical term for someone who has a fear of people who have a fear of bunnies? They scare me, and I want to stay away from them! 🙂 Oh, and no, I don’t think he will. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2019, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/608 "2019-09-04T17:20:55Z")
I will say, the signs of his growing decline can be seen in this comparison between 2015 and 2019 Dotard: > ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2019, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/609 "2019-09-04T18:35:20Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > I will say, the signs of his growing decline can be seen in this comparison between 2015 and 2019 Dotard: > > [https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1167183515433230349?s=19](https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1167183515433230349?s=19) :eek: WHOA!! That is scary. The difference in his delivery, tone, and just ease in talking is shocking. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2019, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/610 "2019-09-04T18:48:31Z")
By picking Hillary Clinton, the Democrats (National Committee or primary voters - you decide) chose one of only two people who could possibly lose to Trump. If Biden gets the nomination then you’ll see who the second is. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2019, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/611 "2019-09-04T19:34:46Z")
You mean the guy who is polling better than any other Democrat? ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2019, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/612 "2019-09-04T19:36:20Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > By picking Hillary Clinton, the Democrats (National Committee or primary voters - you decide) chose one of only two people who could possibly lose to Trump. If Biden gets the nomination then you’ll see who the second is. No, there’s at least two others - Warren and Sanders. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2019, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/613 "2019-09-04T19:45:28Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > By picking Hillary Clinton, the Democrats (National Committee or primary voters - you decide) chose one of only two people who could possibly lose to Trump. If Biden gets the nomination then you’ll see who the second is. Which is exactly what the Kremlin and the GOP wants us to believe. We now know why Clinton lost and those mistakes wont and cant be repeated. Many people are now aware of kremlin dis-information and Fake news, and Facebook, etc have been taking steps to stop it also. Also, there wont be any Comey Memo for Biden. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2019, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/614 "2019-09-04T19:48:27Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > No, there’s at least two others - Warren and Sanders. I love how you wave away the top three candidates. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2019, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/615 "2019-09-04T19:55:39Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > No, there’s at least two others - Warren and Sanders. Oh and of course Beto and Booker and Pete and Julian and Ryan and Bullock can’t win either. And there’s no way Obama is gonna beat war hero John McCain. Bottom line: no one’s electable until they are. Often, there’s just an unpredictable something on the campaign trail that puts someone over the top, regardless of what the “common sense” or their resume says. I don’t think most of these current candidates are unelectable against Trump\*, and I say this as someone who, up until about a month ago, was convinced only a moderate white male who would appeal to blue collar white males and their families in the Industrial Midwest could win. Now I’m open to almost anything. I think almost any one of these candidates has potential to win, as long as they don’t ignore the people Hillary ignored in 2016 (blue collar white males and their families in the Industrial Midwest). \*Except Marianne Williamson. She’s a joke candidate. Andrew Yang’s not much better. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2019, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/616 "2019-09-04T20:23:35Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Oh and of course Beto and Booker and Pete and Julian and Ryan and Bullock can’t win either. I would imagine most of those can. They don’t have the decades of baggage that the others have and, related to that, aren’t far too old for the job. Since Kennedy, all Democratic Presidents (except Johnson, who wasn’t elected for his first term) were relatively young, charismatic and from outside the party machine - or at least appeared that way. With the arguable exception of Carter in 1980, that can’t be said of any Democratic losers. There’s a pattern here. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2019, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/617 "2019-09-04T20:44:34Z")
Random internet person says certain candidates can’t win! Film at 11! ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2019, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/618 "2019-09-04T21:36:28Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Random internet person says certain candidates can’t win! Film at 11! That was a constructive comment. Care to say what I’ve missed in the pattern I’ve seen over the past several decades? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2019, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/619 "2019-09-04T21:49:40Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > I would imagine most of those can. They don’t have the decades of baggage that the others have and, related to that, aren’t far too old for the job. > … But you see, in order not to get Swiftboated- baggage is _necessary._ But please keep this up, you are making trump very happy indeed. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2019, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/620 "2019-09-04T21:53:43Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > That was a constructive comment… Not in the least. It was purely 100% negative. How about who _you_ support and why? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=30) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=32)