# Do you think Trump will win in 2020? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 19, 2019, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728 "2019-06-19T01:50:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 32
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2019, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/621 "2019-09-04T21:54:10Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > That was a constructive comment. Care to say what I’ve missed in the pattern I’ve seen over the past several decades? Such patterns are essentially meaningless when the sample size is in the single digits. All the Democratic candidate needs to do to win in is as good as Hillary plus a tiny bit more in 3 states. Maybe some of the candidates can or can’t do that, but there’s no way to know right now… any such prediction is just a wild guess. Until Nate Silver puts his model out, we just don’t have any idea. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2019, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/622 "2019-09-04T22:13:00Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > But please keep this up, you are making trump very happy indeed. Yes, obviously he cares what an effectively neutral observer thinks. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2019, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/623 "2019-09-04T22:20:44Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Bottom line: no one’s electable until they are. Often, there’s just an unpredictable something on the campaign trail that puts someone over the top, regardless of what the “common sense” or their resume says. I would put it somewhat differently. When both parties nominate a person who is unelectable, one of them will win anyway. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2019, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/624 "2019-09-10T17:26:57Z")
Trump’s tariff war has hurt farmers, but according to a report from Reuters, hope that the farmers will turn against him at the ballot-box may be misplaced: > [@](#): > > Many farmers are angry, and some are directing their anger not at the Republican president, but at Washington’s bureaucracy. > … > Instead of directing their anger at Trump, dozens of farmers interviewed by Reuters blasted the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and other Washington institutions they believe are thwarting his true agenda. Unsubstantiated conspiracy theories involving USDA staff are circulating in farm country and gaining traction online… > > Farmers are struggling with how to emotionally process their pain from the Trump administration’s policies, and anger at the USDA may be a coping mechanism, said Ted Matthews, a Minnesota psychologist who has spent 30 years counseling farmers and rural residents across the Midwest. > > “The question I hear from farmers who voted for (Trump) is, ‘We believed him when he said he would help make the farm economy better, that we could save our farms. Now, who do we blame?’” Matthews said. > > Many farmers told Reuters they intend to support Trump again in his re-election bid in 2020. > > “It’s much easier to be angry at a faceless Washington bureaucracy than at the man you voted for,” said Jere Solvie, 69, grain and hog farmer from west-central Minnesota who voted for Trump and still supports him. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2019, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/625 "2019-09-10T17:33:54Z")
Enjoying your shit sandwiches, fellas? Eat up, don’t be shy! ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2019, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/626 "2019-09-10T17:49:32Z")
> [@VinylTurnip](#): > > Enjoying your shit sandwiches, fellas? Eat up, don’t be shy! “This sandwich tastes like shit!” “Maybe blame the guy who made it and sold it to you?” “Nah. I’m going to blame “the government” And buy another sandwich from the same guy.” ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2019, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/627 "2019-09-10T21:48:43Z")
> [@JohnT on August 6th](#): > > So, I’m going to say something stupid, something crazy, something that you’ll want to bookmark and throw back at me in 15, 17 months or so as I’m possibly wrong, and can’t be proven even if I’m correct. > > But still going to say it anyway. > > I think yesterday, Monday, August 5th 2019, is the day America decided “we can’t re-elect this chump.” > > I heard it at home: “Toledo?” I heard it at work: “how’s the Dow?” I heard it on the radio: “stop blaming video games”. I read it in the paper: “China ag restrictions to hit TX hard”. I hear it while shopping: “I’m nervous.” > > All this was yesterday. None of it the SDMB. None of it Twitter. Out of people’s mouths. > > And then, on the feed, there is this where the adults are coming out saying the future’s so dark we gotta take our shades off: > > It’s Larry Summer, former Treasury Sec, saying: > > [We may well be at the most dangerous financial moment since the 2009 Financial Crisis with current developments between the US and China.](https://twitter.com/LHSummers/status/1158520853606404098?s=19) > > And then Fitch puts a very bearish signal on oil prices: [https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil\_price\_forecast\_majorly\_revised\_at\_fitch-06-aug-2019-159492-article/](https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_price_forecast_majorly_revised_at_fitch-06-aug-2019-159492-article/) > > There’s a dawning understanding that the Brexit Bill is coming due soon and nobody knows how it’s going to get paid: [Germany will plunge into recession if UK leaves the EU without a deal, business leaders warn](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7312717/amp/Germany-plunge-recession-UK-leaves-EU-without-deal-business-leaders-warn.html) > > Oh, China devalued its currency, leaving Munchkin to call them a currency manipulator. > > [https://twitter.com/DTR\_Markets/status/1158500629133664256?s=19](https://twitter.com/DTR_Markets/status/1158500629133664256?s=19) > In earlier days this would have been a serious accusation with tons of paperwork being filed, nowadays his aides are likely having to scramble because of this bombshell. Or not, because it doesn’t matter because almost everyone in this admin is Michael Scott. But I keep hearing the same drumbeat… _Recession2020… recession2020… recession2020(or21!)_… and we have Donald Trump still President. > > And… yesterday, I think… America gave up on this guy. Oh, he might still win - the field is uneven and the game is being cooked - but it won’t be a popular victory in any sense of the word. I love replying to myself. [Trumps approval rating drops a whopping 6 points in a single month.](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/ten-call-recession-trump-approval-drops-points-poll/story?id=65414875) > [@](#): > > Six in 10 Americans say a recession is likely in the next year and as many are concerned about higher prices because of the trade war with China, helping to knock 6 points off President Donald Trump’s job approval rating in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll. > > Trump fell from a career-high 44% approval in July to 38% now, a point off his career average, with 56% disapproving. His average rating since taking office remains the lowest on record for any modern president at a comparable point in his term, and he is the first never to have achieved majority approval. > > … > > Ratings of the U.S. economy overall, 56% positive, are down from 65% last fall in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. Most ominously, 60% see a recession as very or somewhat likely in the next year. That’s within sight of the 69% who said so in November 2007, in advance of the Great Recession. > > In another measure, Trump gets far more criticism than credit for his economic stewardship. Americans by nearly a 3-1 margin, 43-16%, say his trade and economic policies have increased rather than decreased the chance of a recession in the next year. > > … > > Economic attitudes include a high degree of partisanship. Ninety% of Republicans rate the economy positively, compared with 52% of independents and 33% of Democrats. One in three Republicans sees a recession as very or somewhat likely in the next year; that rises to 60% of independents and 83% of Democrats. > > That said, looking just at Republicans and Republican-leaning independents – “leaned Republicans” – shows the risk that negative economic attitudes pose to Trump. His approval rating is 58% among leaned Republicans who are concerned that the trade dispute with China will raise the price of things they buy, compared with 90% among those who are less worried about that outcome. There’s a similar gap among leaned Republicans based on whether or not they think a recession is more or less likely in the next year. > > A statistical analysis called regression backs this result. Controlling for demographics, partisanship and political ideology, seeing a recession as more likely independently predicts lower approval for Trump, as do both being concerned about paying more because of the trade dispute with China and holding more negative views of the economy overall. Indeed, each of these alone, in its respective equation, is the single strongest predictor of Trump’s approval rating – more so than the customary prime factors in presidential approval, partisanship, ideology and race or ethnicity. > > … > > Two other shifts this month make Trump appear increasingly isolated in a core support group, white men who don’t have a college degree. They give him 69% approval. But he’s lost 12 points among non-college white women, to 42%; and Trump is down 15 points among college-educated white men, to 34%, a new low. They’re now as critical of the president as are college-educated white women. ---
**Author:** ![str8cashhomie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/7cd45c/32.png) [@str8cashhomie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/str8cashhomie)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/628 "2019-09-11T04:11:39Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > “This sandwich tastes like shit!” > > “Maybe blame the guy who made it and sold it to you?” > > “Nah. I’m going to blame “the government” And buy another sandwich from the same guy.” Let us not forget that both shit and sandwiches existed under the Obama and Clinton administrations. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2019, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/629 "2019-10-19T12:12:08Z")
Today’s reality: [**Analysis: Trump leans on a changed GOP**](https://a.msn.com/r/2/AAIYTBy?m=en-us&referrerID=InAppShare) > [@](#): > > WASHINGTON — Donald Trump won the White House in large part by changing the mix of voters who make up the Republican Party. Now, as he faces the threat of impeachment, the party base he helped to create is proving to be his most important barrier to removal from office. > > Mr. Trump accelerated the movement of working-class voters into the Republican Party, creating a GOP that now represents more middle- and lower-income Americans, a Wall Street Journal analysis shows. He has reframed much of the Republican agenda to appeal to these voters, particularly on trade, immigration and foreign affairs, in many cases upending 40 years of GOP policy. > > And Mr. Trump’s combative personal style and dominating presence in the nation’s political discourse have created an unusually tight bond with the new GOP base. > > The result: Mr. Trump heads into the impeachment inquiry—the most dangerous political waters of his presidency—with support from the vast majority of his party. **Some 84% of Republicans approve of how Mr. Trump is handling his job** , essentially unchanged from 86% just after he was sworn in, Journal/NBC News polling this month found. More than three-quarters of Republicans say Congress should abandon the impeachment investigation. > > “This is Donald Trump’s party, and everyone knows it,” said Peter Wehner, a critic of the president who served in the Reagan and both Bush administrations. > … The question is, what percent of the total electorate is that 86% in the phrase I’ve bolded. And will the Republicans be successful in blocking/limiting voters who oppose the party? (Assuming FPT\* is the nominee, barring some unforseen–yet longed-for–event.) ---
**Author:** ![Yankees\_1996\_Champs](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/5f8ce5/32.png) [@Yankees\_1996\_Champs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yankees_1996_Champs)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/630 "2019-10-20T00:00:30Z")
A Democrat wins in 2020 if they run a campaign that wins MI, PA, WI. If they double-down on a hard left campaign, Trump unfortunately wins again. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/631 "2019-10-20T01:07:00Z")
The Democrats are squandering the meltdown of the Trump administration on internecine squabbling. So much :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Yankees\_1996\_Champs](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/5f8ce5/32.png) [@Yankees\_1996\_Champs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yankees_1996_Champs)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/632 "2019-10-20T01:28:36Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > The Democrats are squandering the meltdown of the Trump administration on internecine squabbling. So much :smack: The Democrats always squabble and argue. They can’t beat a corrupt businessman in the likes of a George Steinbrenner, who reinvented himself after the Yankees won the 1996, 1998-2000 World Series. If Trump wins again in 2020, and he is a 2-term president, watch as he may be reinvented as the GOP looks for a 2024 standard-bearer. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/633 "2019-10-20T01:37:43Z")
I’m really baffled at the lack of (D) confidence in this thread. Trump is going down in a landslide. Whatever internecine squabbling there is among the D’s right now is irrelevant; come August or October next year, the Democrats will be united like we haven’t seen in 40+ years. Trump will be lucky to hit 200 electoral votes. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/634 "2019-10-20T01:53:31Z")
Trump could still win. There’s not a shred of doubt in my mind he could. I think people who look at his poll numbers and assume that a Dem is a shoe-in are ignoring the myriad possibilities in which this race could go sideways. For example, consider a third party run - or a third and fourth party run. I know we all want “normal” again, but I fear that normal is gone - forever. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/635 "2019-10-20T02:06:27Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I’m really baffled at the lack of (D) confidence in this thread. Trump is going down in a landslide. Whatever internecine squabbling there is among the D’s right now is irrelevant; come August or October next year, the Democrats will be united like we haven’t seen in 40+ years. Trump will be lucky to hit 200 electoral votes. Democrats HAVE to unite behind whatever candidate emerges from the current pileup. There can’t be any spoilers (I’m lookin’ at you, Bernie) to split the vote. Will that happen? Maybe not. Maybe people will still need to make some kind of statement with their vote instead of putting it behind anyone to beat FPT\*. > [@asahi](#): > > Trump could still win. There’s not a shred of doubt in my mind he could… Absolutely yes. FPT\* could lose the popular vote by even more than he did before and still win the electoral college vote. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/636 "2019-10-20T12:24:38Z")
I won’t feel confident in Trump losing until his administration is blamed for a major failure that he can’t hide from. The most likely event that fits that description would be a severe economic downturn, though if there’s a major embarrassment as a result of his handling of the Middle Eastern situation, that might do the trick as well. But the average person needs to be angry at the incumbent in order for them to be motivated to oust him, and it’s hard to be angry when there’s record low unemployment and wage growth. If that changes, then Trump’s fortunes change. Trump is an intensely polarizing figure, but he can still win by Balkanizing the electorate. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/637 "2019-10-20T13:42:42Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I won’t feel confident in Trump losing until his administration is blamed for a major failure that he can’t hide from. The most likely event that fits that description would be a severe economic downturn, though if there’s a major embarrassment as a result of his handling of the Middle Eastern situation, that might do the trick as well. But the average person needs to be angry at the incumbent in order for them to be motivated to oust him, and it’s hard to be angry when there’s record low unemployment and wage growth. If that changes, then Trump’s fortunes change. > > Trump is an intensely polarizing figure, but he can still win by Balkanizing the electorate. One wonders. I was reading an article the other day (sorry, no cite, but prolly WaPo) about why farmers still support FPT\*. They know he is hurting them economically, even potentially bankrupting them, but they love that he is trashing EPA regs. \ Storyboard for me how a hypothetical “severe economic downturn” would pull the rug out from under him. IOW how would it be clear that it was HIS admin’s fault? I see him lying his way out of it as he goes from rally to rally around the country, blaming Dems, Hillary, Obama, and the birds in the trees. Please, please, spell out how you see it happening… a story like that would make me so happy, but I can’t picture it. And I want to, soooo bad. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/638 "2019-10-20T13:51:27Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > One wonders. I was reading an article the other day (sorry, no cite, but prolly WaPo) about why farmers still support FPT\*. They know he is hurting them economically, even potentially bankrupting them, but they love that he is trashing EPA regs. \ > > Storyboard for me how a hypothetical “severe economic downturn” would pull the rug out from under him. IOW how would it be clear that it was HIS admin’s fault? I see him lying his way out of it as he goes from rally to rally around the country, blaming Dems, Hillary, Obama, and the birds in the trees. > > Please, please, spell out how you see it happening… a story like that would make me so happy, but I can’t picture it. And I want to, soooo bad. Follow-up question: let’s say that, shortly before the election, Trump gets the chance to name a replacement for Ginsburg or Breyer — or, since we’re apparently now living in a movie, _both_. Do his odds of re-election go down, or up? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/639 "2019-10-20T14:07:00Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > One wonders. I was reading an article the other day (sorry, no cite, but prolly WaPo) about why farmers still support FPT\*. They know he is hurting them economically, even potentially bankrupting them, but they love that he is trashing EPA regs. \ > > Storyboard for me how a hypothetical “severe economic downturn” would pull the rug out from under him. IOW how would it be clear that it was HIS admin’s fault? I see him lying his way out of it as he goes from rally to rally around the country, blaming Dems, Hillary, Obama, and the birds in the trees. > > Please, please, spell out how you see it happening… a story like that would make me so happy, but I can’t picture it. And I want to, soooo bad. I don’t see the farmers voting for a Democrat; I could see farmers simply deciding “Fuck it, I’ll sit this one out.” That’s what we must hope for. ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/640 "2019-10-20T14:34:29Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > Follow-up question: let’s say that, shortly before the election, Trump gets the chance to name a replacement for Ginsburg or Breyer — or, since we’re apparently now living in a movie, _both_. Do his odds of re-election go down, or up? “Both”! You should write horror stories. His chances of being elected would change, downward. Not because farmers or anyone who now supports Trump would switch and vote Democrat. Rather, they would have become sufficiently sated by the many and various conservative “wins” of the Trump Republicans to prefer to stay home and watch reruns of Duck Dynasty instead of putting on their pants and heading to the voting booth. OTOH, Democrats and anti-Trumpists in general would become even further enraged and vote in record-breaking numbers. Then, following the parallel Democratic victory in the Senate, the new government would, with clear purpose and clear conscience, modify SCOTUS appointment laws. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=31) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=33)