# Do you think Trump will win in 2020? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 19, 2019, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728 "2019-06-19T01:50:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 33
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/641 "2019-10-20T16:42:53Z")
> [@Yankees\_1996\_Champs](#): > > If they double-down on a hard left campaign, Trump unfortunately wins again. I’m really curious what you think “hard left” looks like. As far as I can see, the best America can muster is a slightly left-of-center candidate; many of the dems are centrist or center-right. You may not agree with [political compass](https://www.reddit.com/r/YangForPresidentHQ/comments/cdz39d/the_political_compasss_2020_candidate_ratings/), but I throw it out as a starter: they have everyone but Sanders and Crazy Gabbard as right of center; Warren is quite close to center, and O’Rourke and Castro are well to the right. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/642 "2019-10-20T18:51:04Z")
**Asahi** , you wrote: > [@](#): > > I won’t feel confident in Trump losing until his administration is blamed for a major failure that he can’t hide from. The most likely event that fits that description would be a severe economic downturn > … Then I asked: > [@ThelmaLou](#): > > … > Storyboard for me how a hypothetical “severe economic downturn” would pull the rug out from under him. IOW how would it be clear that it was HIS admin’s fault? I see him lying his way out of it as he goes from rally to rally around the country, blaming Dems, Hillary, Obama, and the birds in the trees. > > Please, please, spell out how you see it happening… > [@asahi](#): > > I don’t see the farmers voting for a Democrat; I could see farmers simply deciding “Fuck it, I’ll sit this one out.” That’s what we must hope for. I agree. Forget the farmers. But I’m really interested in your thoughts on how a “severe economic downturn” would doom FPT\*. Would it turn some Trumpniks against him? Or bring out to the polls people who have not voted in the past? You’ve been saying for a long time that a change for the worse in the economy will be FPT’s\* downfall. I tend to agree, but I can’t see specifically how it would play out. (My former work colleagues will tell you I’m aggravatingly literal-minded and detail oriented.) Look in your crystal ball and spell out how it COULD happen without DJT being able to squirm out from under the blame. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/643 "2019-10-20T19:02:44Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Trump could still win. There’s not a shred of doubt in my mind he could. > > I think people who look at his poll numbers and assume that a Dem is a **shoe-in** are ignoring the myriad possibilities in which this race could go sideways. For example, consider a third party run - or a third and fourth party run. > > I know we all want “normal” again, but I fear that normal is gone - forever. “SHOO-in.” As in _“Shoo! Get your ass in there, now!”_ That is all. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/644 "2019-10-20T19:13:10Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Democrats HAVE to unite behind whatever candidate emerges from the current pileup. There can’t be any spoilers (I’m lookin’ at you, Bernie) to split the vote. Will that happen? Maybe not. Maybe people will still need to make some kind of statement with their vote instead of putting it behind anyone to beat FPT\*. > > Absolutely yes. FPT\* could lose the popular vote by even more than he did before and still win the electoral college vote. Yep. Consider California as having, say 30,000,000 eligible voters. 29,999,951 vote for the Democratic candidate. EVERY OTHER STATE has a voter turnout of 3. The America-hating fuckstick wins each of those by 2 votes to 1. Popular vote is 30,000,000 to 147. Electoral vote count is 483-55 in favor of the America-hating fuckstick. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/645 "2019-10-20T19:18:09Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > Follow-up question: let’s say that, shortly before the election, Trump gets the chance to name a replacement for Ginsburg or Breyer — or, since we’re apparently now living in a movie, _both_. Do his odds of re-election go down, or up? > [@KarlGauss](#): > > “Both”! You should write horror stories. In real life, he’s Dean Koontz. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/646 "2019-10-20T19:39:55Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > “SHOO-in.” As in _“Shoo! Get your ass in there, now!”_ > > That is all. \ That’s what I wrote! I never wrote shoe-in, and I really hope the media pays attention this time! ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/647 "2019-10-20T19:48:31Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > **Asahi** , you wrote: Then I asked: > > I agree. Forget the farmers. But I’m really interested in your thoughts on how a “severe economic downturn” would doom FPT\*. Would it turn some Trumpniks against him? Or bring out to the polls people who have not voted in the past? > > You’ve been saying for a long time that a change for the worse in the economy will be FPT’s\* downfall. I tend to agree, but I can’t see specifically how it would play out. (My former work colleagues will tell you I’m aggravatingly literal-minded and detail oriented.) Look in your crystal ball and spell out how it COULD happen without DJT being able to squirm out from under the blame. I think that it really depends on how severe and sudden the downturn is, and if you’re asking whether I believe we need a recession to remove this guy, my answer is unfortunately yes. I think that is our best chance to get him out of power. I think the average voter is too confused and ignorant to understand even blatant corruption and they can’t find Ukraine and Syria on a map. The only sure way that the country turns on him is if they begin to feel the direct consequences of his policies. So if there’s a significant downturn in the economy, sure, he’ll still have his supporters, but they want be as enthusiastically behind him. Those who want him out of power will be more motivated to show up at the polls. That’s what it comes down to. ---
**Author:** ![TimeWinder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bcef8e/32.png) [@TimeWinder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TimeWinder)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/648 "2019-10-20T20:50:32Z")
> [@Dr.Drake](#): > > I’m really curious what you think “hard left” looks like. As far as I can see, the best America can muster is a slightly left-of-center candidate; many of the dems are centrist or center-right. You may not agree with [political compass](https://www.reddit.com/r/YangForPresidentHQ/comments/cdz39d/the_political_compasss_2020_candidate_ratings/), but I throw it out as a starter: they have everyone but Sanders and Crazy Gabbard as right of center; Warren is quite close to center, and O’Rourke and Castro are well to the right. Remember that to half the country “not throwing kids in cages” and “not conspiring with an enemy nation to steal a second election” are considered hard-left positions. ---
**Author:** ![TimeWinder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bcef8e/32.png) [@TimeWinder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TimeWinder)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/649 "2019-10-20T20:58:26Z")
Too late to edit: In a world where batshit insane candidates like Paul Ryan and Ted Cruz are considered “moderates,” the ability to make distinctions between the positions on those on the left is clearly lost. By today’s standards, Ronald Reagan would be a hard left liberal. The Overton Window has moved so far to the right it’s now on a house in another neighborhood. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2019, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/650 "2019-10-20T22:57:57Z")
Full disclosure: I haven’t voted yet - because I honestly don’t know. 2020 will be hard to predict, but my prediction is that if the economy is still this good next year, Jesus could run as a Democrat and Trump will find a way to pull off a squeaker. If the economy totally tanks, Antonio Brown or Vontaze Burfict could run as a Democrat and win. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2019, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/651 "2019-10-21T00:45:51Z")
I think nothing matters, no issue matters, economy does not matter, foreign policy does not matter. The only things that matters are the tribes, and whoever can get their tribe out to vote is going to win. Since Republicans always vote, the only thing that matters is will Democrats show up? If they do, he loses and if they don’t, he wins. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2019, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/652 "2019-10-21T01:11:34Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I think nothing matters, no issue matters, economy does not matter, foreign policy does not matter. The only things that matters are the tribes, and whoever can get their tribe out to vote is going to win… Alas, I believe you are correct. The economy could slide into a new depression and FPT\* would not be blamed by any of his fans. If they all wound up broke and living on the street, they would still sing his praises and blame everyone but him. Sad but true. > [@](#): > > Since Republicans always vote, the only thing that matters is will Democrats show up? If they do, he loses and if they don’t, he wins I agree, Dems must show up to vote. But the Republicans are going to do everything they can, legal and illegal, to either keep them from voting or keep their votes from counting. And there’s still the Electoral College. It looks grim. Another five years of… ohgod… ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2019, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/653 "2019-10-21T01:17:39Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Alas, I believe you are correct. The economy could slide into a new depression and FPT\* would not be blamed by any of his fans. If they all wound up broke and living on the street, they would still sing his praises and blame everyone but him. Sad but true. Trump voter 2021: “Obama stole mah job away. I usta git 20 bux an hour changin’ the toilet soaps. Not anny moar.” ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2019, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/654 "2019-10-21T17:39:19Z")
I think, and have always thought, that Trump’s _real_ base - or his floor - is around 20-30%. By that I mean, it doesn’t matter what happens to the economy, or what he does in office: they’re going to show up and vote for the sonofabitch because God wants them to, or because it’s important to stick it to brown people, or because they want oligarchy - or maybe he’s just their idea of a good luck charm. Whatever. I think that the number of people who would vote for Trump under the absolute worst of circumstances is probably around 27%, possibly as high as 30%, or in the low 20s if I’m overestimating. There’s probably another 10-15% that would really, really like to vote for Trump, and they will unless they have a really good reason not to. And I never felt like Mueller’s investigation into collusion with Russia was that reason. I’m not sure that the quid pro quo is either. In both cases, some people in this softer tier of Trump support would acknowledge that the optics are bad, but they still don’t have a reason not to vote for him on a personal level. This is really not much worse than say some of the most outrageous shit he says on twitter or at his pressers. Some people in this softer tier might find this distasteful, but their tax rates are still low, he’s still gettin’ stuff done on the border, and giving Dems hell. The difference between the 20-30% who will support him no matter what and that second 15% is that for that softer tier of Trump voters, results matter. Their lives matter. Their welfare matters. And they, like most other voters, will want to hold someone accountable. Now some within this softer tier - those who are closer along the spectrum to those diehards - will stick with the president through an awful lot. But as you get further away from his core, there will be lines of demarcation. I do believe that Trump has already screwed himself beyond repair with that very small percentage of independents and centrists who frequently switch between parties - I think he’s lost them for good, and this will have an impact in places like Pennsylvania, and perhaps in Florida and Ohio, too. But for Trump’s real support (which now probably stands at around 42%) to crack, the only thing that’ll do it is the economy. And even if they bail on Trump, they won’t necessarily vote for a Democrat. What I’m saying is that you’d just have a very bad turnout. Republicans in GOP-controlled states may try to compensate for that by putting conservative ballot initiatives, but that will only go so far. I think that when Trump tanks, he’ll tank hard, and so will his party. It’s just a question of when that’ll happen, and more importantly, how much damage will be sustained by then. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2019, 11:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/655 "2019-10-27T11:27:19Z")
Voter suppression-- look for more of it … [The Student Vote Is Surging. So Are Efforts to Suppress It.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/24/us/voting-college-suppression.html?searchResultPosition=1) My bold. > [@](#): > > \*The share of college students casting ballots doubled from 2014 to 2018, a potential boon to Democrats. But in Texas and elsewhere, Republicans are erecting roadblocks to the polls. > \* > AUSTIN, Texas — At Austin Community College, civics is an unwritten part of the curriculum — so much so that for years the school has tapped its own funds to set up temporary early-voting sites on nine of its 11 campuses. > > No more, however. This spring, the Texas Legislature outlawed polling places that did not stay open for the entire 12-day early-voting period. When the state’s elections take place in three weeks, those nine sites — which logged many of the nearly 14,000 ballots that full-time students cast last year — will be shuttered. So will six campus polling places at colleges in Fort Worth, two in Brownsville, on the Mexico border, and other polling places at schools statewide. > > “It was a beautiful thing, a lot of people out there in those long lines,” said Grant Loveless, a 20-year-old majoring in psychology and political science who voted last November at a campus in central Austin. “It would hurt a lot of students if you take those polling places away.” > > The story at Austin Community College is but one example of a political drama playing out nationwide: After decades of treating elections as an afterthought, college students have begun voting in force. > > Their turnout in the 2018 midterms — 40.3 percent of 10 million students tracked by Tufts University’s Institute for Democracy & Higher Education — was **more than double the rate in the 2014 midterms** , easily exceeding an already robust increase in national turnout. Energized by issues like climate change and the Trump presidency, students have suddenly emerged as a potentially crucial voting bloc in the 2020 general election. > > And almost as suddenly, Republican politicians around the country are throwing up roadblocks between students and voting booths. > > Not coincidentally, the barriers are rising fastest in political battlegrounds and places like Texas where one-party control is eroding. > > **Students lean strongly Democratic** : In a March poll by the Institute of Politics at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, **45 percent of college students ages 18-24 identified as Democrats** , compared to 29 percent who called themselves independents and 24 percent Republicans > … Remember back when getting college students to vote and care about government was a \*good thing? \* :dubious: But the Republicans don’t want those uppity, _librul, edumacated_ stoo-dunts out there telling their elders and betters how to run this here country. College is a bad influence-- it just makes them too big for their britches. ---
**Author:** ![Sterling\_Archer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f1d935/32.png) [@Sterling\_Archer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sterling_Archer)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2019, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/656 "2019-10-27T18:05:28Z")
I think Trump will lose but it will be super close and he will erupt with claims of voter fraud and we will have a mess on our hands. Ohio and Wisconsin will stay red. Michigan and Florida will go blue. Pennsylvania and Iowa will be extremely close, probably lean red. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2019, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/657 "2019-11-04T14:39:29Z")
**[How an impeached Trump wins](https://www.axios.com/trump-impeachment-senate-republicans-178c6d1d-f75d-4e18-8edf-0ecd639cdf05.html)** > [@](#): > > President Trump is showing how he could be impeached, survive and still win re-election, something never done before in American history. > > \*\*Between the lines: \*\*Trump officials think two things must unfold for this to happen: Republicans must stay unified, in votes and voice, and the economy must be strong, in jobs and market returns. The trends are strong on both fronts. > > ``` > [ul] > > ``` > > [li]Every single House Republican voted against a formal impeachment proceeding, a powerful show of unity. In the Senate, there are very few public signs of the Great Red Wall cracking.[/li][li] Importantly, Senate Republicans are discussing how they will defend Trump even if Democrats prove beyond a shadow of a doubt Trump offered Ukraine a quid pro quo to investigate Joe Biden. [/li][li] Sources close to Republican leadership told us they expect many GOP senators to ultimately settle on a talking point that Trump’s actions were “inappropriate but not impeachable.”[/li][li] The economy is humming, too. Markets are rising; growth continues, albeit more slowly; and more jobs are materializing. It’s hard to argue that the Trump economy is anything but consistently strong one year out from the presidential election.[/li][/ul] > **The big picture:** “The worst-case scenario” — that the Senate convicts Trump — “only presents itself if there’s a material change in fact pattern,” said a source close to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. “If we know what we know right now, there is no problem.” > … (Formatting appears in the original.) I think this is exactly what will happen. Add in aggressive and shameless Republican tactics to obstruct voting. A dose of Democratic in-fighting and spoiler candidates (who may yet appear). Capped off with Democrats playing mostly by the rules. (Not that I think the Dems should turn into lawless thugs.) Result: Four. More. Years. God only knows what state the country will be in by then… ☹ ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2019, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/658 "2019-11-04T15:04:35Z")
[ **America After Trump** _Even if he loses the next election, the damage he’s done to our political system will be lasting._](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/12/when-trump-goes/600736/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheAtlantic+%28The+Atlantic+-+Master+Feed%29) > [@](#): > > It might work. The damage Trump could do in a second term would be substantial, and possibly irreversible—starting with the harm that would be done to the legitimacy of the American political system if he once again wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote. If that happens, three of the past four Republican presidential terms will have lacked a popular mandate. This harm will be compounded if a Senate trial proves all charges against Trump, then acquits him on a party-line vote. > > A second-term Trump would surely continue to rely on the countermajoritarian Senate—at this point it’s less democratically representative than the Electoral College—to cram through conservative judges who will act as umpires for a game that the American majority is not allowed to win. > … On the other hand, > [@](#): > > … what if, as seems more likely at this point, he is defeated? If Trump loses, a cloud will lift from American politics. But the circumstances that produced him will not vanish—and the changes that he wrought will outlast him. Like Lewis Carroll’s Cheshire cat, when Donald Trump fades from the scene, his teeth will linger after him—but unlike the cat’s, those teeth will not be smiling. They will bite and draw blood for years to come… Even if he loses (please God), we’re screwed for a looooong time. > [@](#): > > …Even a roundly defeated Trump will bequeath a hard legacy to his Democratic successor, however: fiscal deficits in excess of $1 trillion for years to come; no-win trade wars, not only against China but against the European Union and other friends. > > The leading Democrats of 2020 have offered expensive plans for progressive reform. But under current fiscal and political conditions, a costly progressive agenda stands little chance of being enacted. Medicare for All? Student-debt relief? There won’t be money for those—nor, more pertinent, the votes in the Senate. > > Like Bill Clinton opening his administration with “NAFTA because we hafta” and Barack Obama beginning by rescuing banks, the next Democratic president will be compelled to focus on an agenda—trade-restoring, budget-balancing, ally-coaxing—that is at best boring to the Democratic base and at worst deeply unpopular. The Senate won’t allow much more than that. Republicans will be locked in payback mode; even Republicans who never much liked Trump will feel entitled to do anything and everything to inflict retribution upon the party that dared try to impeach him… ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/659 "2019-11-06T23:08:52Z")
Here’s some positive news: **[The Suburban Backlash Against the GOP Is Growing](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/11/republican-party-suburbs-kentucky-virginia/601504/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheAtlantic+%28The+Atlantic+-+Master+Feed%29)** > [@](#): > > …“When Trump was elected, there was an initial rejection of him in the suburbs,” says Jesse Ferguson, a Virginia-based Democratic strategist. “We are now seeing a full-on realignment.” > > In that way, the GOP’s losses again raised the stakes for Republicans heading into 2020. In both message and agenda, Trump has reoriented the Republican Party toward the priorities and grievances of non-college-educated, evangelical, and nonurban white voters. His campaign has already signaled that it will focus its 2020 efforts primarily on turning out more working-class and rural white voters who did not participate in 2016. > > But yesterday’s results again suggested that the costs of that intensely polarizing strategy may exceed the benefits. Republicans again suffered resounding repudiations in urban centers and inner suburbs, which contain many of the nonwhite, young-adult, and white-collar white voters who polls show are most resistant to Trump. If the metropolitan movement away from the Trump-era GOP “is permanent, there’s not much of a path for Republican victories nationally,” former Representative Tom Davis of Virginia, who chaired the National Republican Congressional Committee about two decades ago, told me. > > Some in both parties see the results as more confirmation of the pattern from the 2018 midterm elections, when Democrats won a majority in the House of Representatives: Trump’s effort to mobilize his nonurban base around white identity politics is having the offsetting effect of turbocharging Democratic turnout in metropolitan areas, which are growing faster than Trump’s rural strongholds. > … Maybe common sense and education will win out over stupidity in 2020 and beyond. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/660 "2019-11-06T23:28:24Z")
Let’s hope. Unfortunately, some suburbs are worth more than others. One of the highest value ones, the ‘burbs of Milwaukee, haven’t shown much sign of blueness, as far as I’m aware. Milwaukee overall is amazingly segregated, and Trump’s messaging plays quite well around there even among more educated whites. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=32) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=34)