# Do you think Trump will win in 2020? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 19, 2019, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728 "2019-06-19T01:50:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 34
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/661 "2019-11-06T23:31:30Z")
Majority expect Trump will win: > **[Poll: Majority expect Trump to win in 2020](https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-majority-expects-trump-win-100719696.html)** > > With less than a year to go before the 2020 election, a majority of registered voters say they think it’s at least somewhat likely that President Donald Trump will secure a second term in the White House, a new poll has found, with more than... ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2019, 10:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/662 "2019-11-07T10:28:14Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Majority expect Trump will win: > > [Poll: Majority expect Trump to win in 2020](https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-majority-expects-trump-win-100719696.html) Heh. The first sentence contradicts the headline. A majority think it’s “at least somewhat likely” Trump will win. Well, duh! Nice try, though. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2019, 11:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/663 "2019-11-07T11:22:07Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Majority expect Trump will win: > > [Poll: Majority expect Trump to win in 2020](https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-majority-expects-trump-win-100719696.html) > [@JKellyMap](#): > > Heh. The first sentence contradicts the headline. A majority think it’s “at least somewhat likely” Trump will win. Well, duh! > > Nice try, though. I caught that, too, but further down the article says: > [@](#): > > According to a POLITICO/Morning Consult survey released on Wednesday, **56 percent of voters expect the president to be reelected next year** , including 85 percent of Republicans and 51 percent of independents. By comparison, more than a third of Democrats (35 percent) say the same. My bold. The people who write the headlines don’t write the articles. Sometimes I think that the people who write the headlines don’t even READ the articles… :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2019, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/664 "2019-11-07T11:31:39Z")
Interesting — thanks! My mistake. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2019, 11:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/665 "2019-11-07T11:52:39Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Interesting — thanks! My mistake. At best, the headline is misleading, as 56% is hardly a flaming, screaming, _newsworthy_ majority. Of course, it DID make us read, and that’s the goal. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2019, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/666 "2019-11-07T15:19:25Z")
In light of polling and interim elections since '16, the continuing confidence of Trump voters and the lack of it from non-Trump voters is astonishing to me. And I’m guilty of it, too. It’s so important to beat Alpha Don next year, and it was so disillusioning to me that he won in the first place, that I can’t bring myself to believe that the country is principled enough and energetic enough to get off its collective butts and vote the man out of office. ---
**Author:** ![wictor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b3f665/32.png) [@wictor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wictor)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2019, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/667 "2019-11-07T18:37:15Z")
Yes, with the help of the Russians and the NRA. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2019, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/668 "2019-11-07T22:46:22Z")
If it’s Trump against Warren or Sanders, Trump is going to win. Just wait until all those blue-collar union workers with gold-plated health care plans, along with all the liberal professors, teachers, nurses, and other professionals with great health care plans discover that Warren is going to invalidate their contracts, make their health insurance illegal, and force them all into the brave new system of ‘medicare for all’ with the rest of the rabble. Congress, of course, will be exempt. After all, she’d need their votes. Warren is already dropping in the polls due to this stupidity, and the average voter isn’t really paying attention yet. Bernie’s ideas are even more politically destructive to the Democrats. If the Democrats don’t get those two lunatics off the top of the ticket, Trump will win again, and probably by a bigger margin than last time. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2019, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/669 "2019-11-07T23:04:14Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > If it’s Trump against Warren or Sanders, Trump is going to win. Just wait until all those blue-collar union workers with gold-plated health care plans, along with all the liberal professors, teachers, nurses, and other professionals with great health care plans discover that Warren is going to invalidate their contracts, make their health insurance illegal, and force them all into the brave new system of ‘medicare for all’ with the rest of the rabble. Congress, of course, will be exempt. After all, she’d need their votes. > > Warren is already dropping in the polls due to this stupidity, and the average voter isn’t really paying attention yet. Bernie’s ideas are even more politically destructive to the Democrats. > > If the Democrats don’t get those two lunatics off the top of the ticket, Trump will win again, and probably by a bigger margin than last time. Yes, what kind of fool would put the welfare of all Americans ahead of their own person I-got-mine situation? We should instead vote for someone who will lower taxes on the middle class and otherwise perpetuate the status quo, which is working out just great. ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2019, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/670 "2019-11-07T23:42:34Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > If it’s Trump against Warren or Sanders, Trump is going to win. Just wait until all those blue-collar union workers with gold-plated health care plans, along with all the liberal professors, teachers, nurses, and other professionals with great health care plans discover that Warren is going to invalidate their contracts, make their health insurance illegal, and force them all into the brave new system of ‘medicare for all’ with the rest of the rabble. Congress, of course, will be exempt. After all, she’d need their votes. > > Warren is already dropping in the polls due to this stupidity, and the average voter isn’t really paying attention yet. Bernie’s ideas are even more politically destructive to the Democrats. > > If the Democrats don’t get those two lunatics off the top of the ticket, Trump will win again, and probably by a bigger margin than last time. Did Warren explicitly rule out _all_ ‘private’ health care? Just because there’s ‘medicare for all’ doesn’t mean people have to avail themselves of it. Wouldn’t they still be free to look for, and pay for, 'gold-plated health care"? In fact, by doing so, they’d lighten the load on the public system. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2019, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/671 "2019-11-07T23:45:32Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > If it’s Trump against Warren or Sanders, Trump is going to win. Just wait until all those blue-collar union workers with gold-plated health care plans, along with all the liberal professors, teachers, nurses, and other professionals with great health care plans discover that Warren is going to invalidate their contracts, make their health insurance illegal, and force them all into the brave new system of ‘medicare for all’ with the rest of the rabble. Congress, of course, will be exempt. After all, she’d need their votes. > > Warren is already dropping in the polls due to this stupidity, and the average voter isn’t really paying attention yet. Bernie’s ideas are even more politically destructive to the Democrats. > > If the Democrats don’t get those two lunatics off the top of the ticket, Trump will win again, and probably by a bigger margin than last time. Or maybe you’re wrong, and maybe your prediction is worth no more than mine in 2015 that there’s no way Trump can win. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2019, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/672 "2019-11-13T16:07:47Z")
If \*\*asahi \*\*is correct, then this means DJT is a shoo-in for four more years. **[Recession fears have vanished](https://www.axios.com/recession-fears-have-vanished-0d02ba58-81ac-4c47-a645-001ff8908023.html)** > [@](#): > > Money managers are not just bullish about the stock market, they’re euphoric about the current and future state of the global economy, data from the Bank of America Merrill Lynch shows. > \*\* > What’s happening:\*\* BAML’s monthly survey of fund managers from around the world finds investors are all in on the stock market, with global optimism rising by the most in 20 years and expectations of real economic growth jumping by the most in the history of the survey. > > **Why it matters:** Investors have done a complete 180-degree turn in sentiment, moving from distrustful of the market’s 2019 gains to full-fledged cheerleaders. > [ul] > [li]This is thanks to an expected pause in the U.S-China trade war and slight improvements in U.S. and global manufacturing, services and housing data.[/li][/ul] > **Details:** The survey saw a 43 percentage point increase in the number of investors expecting a stronger global economy in the next year, the biggest month-to-month jump on record. > … Formatting present in original. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2019, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/673 "2019-11-13T18:00:26Z")
> [@KarlGauss](#): > > Did Warren explicitly rule out _all_ ‘private’ health care? Just because there’s ‘medicare for all’ doesn’t mean people have to avail themselves of it. Wouldn’t they still be free to look for, and pay for, 'gold-plated health care"? In fact, by doing so, they’d lighten the load on the public system. > [@](#): > > Under Ms. Warren’s plan, private health insurance — which now covers most of the population — would be eliminated and replaced by free government health coverage for all Americans. [Cite](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/01/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-medicare-for-all.html). > [@](#): > > The Massachusetts Democrat was one of only two candidates to raise their hand when moderator Lester Holt asked for a showing of who would be willing to get rid of private health coverage in favor of a government-run system. [Cite](https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/26/warren-private-insurance-medicare-1558522). I am not sure if Ms. Warren’s plan includes forbidding doctors from treating private patients. And maybe eliminating private health insurance doesn’t include eliminating supplemental or complementary coverage. Would breast augmentations or rhinoplasty be covered under M4A? I don’t know. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2019, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/674 "2019-11-13T18:17:30Z")
> [@KarlGauss](#): > > Did Warren explicitly rule out _all_ ‘private’ health care? Just because there’s ‘medicare for all’ doesn’t mean people have to avail themselves of it. Wouldn’t they still be free to look for, and pay for, 'gold-plated health care"? In fact, by doing so, they’d lighten the load on the public system. \ Sanders plan rules out any private health care. Sanders Plan is\* called \*MFA, but it has no relation to Medicare at all. ---
**Author:** ![Sterling\_Archer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f1d935/32.png) [@Sterling\_Archer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sterling_Archer)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2019, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/675 "2019-11-13T20:46:58Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > If it’s Trump against Warren or Sanders, Trump is going to win. Just wait until all those blue-collar union workers with gold-plated health care plans, along with all the liberal professors, teachers, nurses, and other professionals with great health care plans discover that Warren is going to invalidate their contracts, make their health insurance illegal, and force them all into the brave new system of ‘medicare for all’ with the rest of the rabble. Anyone who currently has gold-plated health care through their union or university… wouldn’t they simply negotiate for a gold-plated supplemental plan? They could end up with even better coverage. I believe Sanders’s plan is essentially gold-plated coverage for all. Single payer, no copay, totally free healthcare for all. Not sure this is possible, but it would make all private insurance superfluous. Warren’s plan is, I think, Medicare-for-all which would still leave room for supplemental coverage, but I could be wrong there. She hasn’t been real clear when asked about private coverage in debates. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2019, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/676 "2019-11-13T22:11:08Z")
If you honestly think that a universal, federally managed single payer health care system will provide the same benefits to all as the major union-negotiated health care benefits and those that have been negotiated for by professionals, then you are delusional. There are simply not enough hospitals, doctors and nurses to give everyone that level of care. And under Warren’s plan, which severely cuts reimbursement to hospitals and doctors, there will be even fewer resources available. Her plan to simply pay drug companies 30% of what they get now will end drug research, and cause massive flight of drug companies and researchers out of the U.S. Her plan to reduce payments to doctors and hospitals to medicare rates will kill hospitals, because they rely on private payments to subsidize the medicare patients they currently serve. Take away the private payments, and there is no money left for capital costs since Medicare only reimburses variable costs. Warren’s plan would destroy the health care system as you know it. So would Sanders’. Such sweeping reform to a huge part of the economy would also come with plenty of unintended consequences, and if history is any guide the cost estimates are rosy pie-im-the-sky estimates assuming that everything goes perfectly, supply continues as before, doctors keep working at 60% salary, he same number of people go to med school when their eventual salaries are capped at 60% of what doctors earn now, etc. None of these issues are addressed by any of the ‘Medicare for all’ advocates. It’s all blue skies and rainbows, so long as you turn over another huge chunk of the economy to the federal government. Get ready for waiting lists and shortages. That’s how this always ends. ---
**Author:** ![Chingon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chingon/32/17645_2.png) [@Chingon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chingon)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2019, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/677 "2019-11-13T22:14:14Z")
Death Panels!!! ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2019, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/678 "2019-11-13T22:18:32Z")
> [@Chingon](#): > > Death Panels!!! Nobody said anything about death panels, Captain Non-Sequitur. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2019, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/679 "2019-11-13T22:18:59Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > If you honestly think that a universal, federally managed single payer health care system will provide the same benefits to all as the major union-negotiated health care benefits and those that have been negotiated for by professionals, then you are delusional. > > There are simply not enough hospitals, doctors and nurses to give everyone that level of care. And under Warren’s plan, which severely cuts reimbursement to hospitals and doctors, there will be even fewer resources available. > > Her plan to simply pay drug companies 30% of what they get now will end drug research, and cause massive flight of drug companies and researchers out of the U.S. Her plan to reduce payments to doctors and hospitals to medicare rates will kill hospitals, because they rely on private payments to subsidize the medicare patients they currently serve. Take away the private payments, and there is no money left for capital costs since Medicare only reimburses variable costs. > > Warren’s plan would destroy the health care system as you know it. So would Sanders’. Such sweeping reform to a huge part of the economy would also come with plenty of unintended consequences, and if history is any guide the cost estimates are rosy pie-im-the-sky estimates assuming that everything goes perfectly, supply continues as before, doctors keep working at 60% salary, he same number of people go to med school when their eventual salaries are capped at 60% of what doctors earn now, etc. None of these issues are addressed by any of the ‘Medicare for all’ advocates. It’s all blue skies and rainbows, so long as you turn over another huge chunk of the economy to the federal government. > > Get ready for waiting lists and shortages. That’s how this always ends. You are aware of other countries, right? And that the rest of the first world did manage to make this transition? I don’t know how people can, in good conscience, enjoy decent health care at the expense of consigning fellow Americans to inferior care. That’s not right. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2019, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/680 "2019-11-13T22:29:19Z")
> [@Dr.Drake](#): > > You are aware of other countries, right? And that the rest of the first world did manage to make this transition? > > I don’t know how people can, in good conscience, enjoy decent health care at the expense of consigning fellow Americans to inferior care. That’s not right. I AM aware of other countries, since I live in one My wife is currently on a 7-month waiting list for a specialist. We have made two trips to the US to get medical services we couldn’t get in a timely fashion here. My grandmother waited on a list for years for a knee replacement. In a system that removes prices as a mechanism to control demand, he demand must be controlled in some other way. Rationing is just about the only tool the government has to do this. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=33) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=35)