# Do you think Trump will win in 2020? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 19, 2019, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728 "2019-06-19T01:50:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 38
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2019, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/741 "2019-12-13T21:13:16Z")
It’s probably because they assume the (Russian) fix is in. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2019, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/742 "2019-12-13T22:01:06Z")
It’s probably the same partisan impulse that makes some Democrats think that Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders would be good presidential candidates. The triumph of hope over reason. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2019, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/743 "2019-12-13T22:09:30Z")
If Sanders is the nominee Trump will have some voters think Bernie wrote the Communist manifesto. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2019, 8:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/744 "2019-12-14T08:23:37Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > The confidence of Trump supporters continues to astonish me. Their guy may indeed win but the implication that they have some kind of secret knowledge about Trump being a shoo-in is something I’ve never seen before. What gives widdat, Trump peoples? It’s not that Trump is a strong candidate – historically he’s among the weakest ever to be nominated. And yet he won in 2016 despite his weakness, and I don’t see evidence that leads me to believe anything has changed since then. The real problem is that the country is now fragmented into parties within parties, which is how scoundrels like Trump can succeed. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2019, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/745 "2019-12-14T13:57:32Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > The confidence of Trump supporters continues to astonish me. Their guy may indeed win but the implication that they have some kind of secret knowledge about Trump being a shoo-in is something I’ve never seen before. What gives widdat, Trump peoples? For a hint at the sheer scale of the cognitive dissonance, consider the persistence of the “Trump as nth-dimensional chessmaster” theory that I gather is still being peddled by the FoxBartWars slopmeisters to their piggies scrambling for a place at the trough: e.g. that the Leader of the Free World spends hours every day sitting on the toilet tweeting memes, boasts, insults and lies not because he’s a subliterate, self-absorbed cretin with no desire or capacity to perform the duties of his job, but as part of a grand plan whose blueprint exists only in the steel trap of his exceptional mind. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2019, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/746 "2019-12-14T14:12:41Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > The confidence of Trump supporters continues to astonish me. Their guy may indeed win but the implication that they have some kind of secret knowledge about Trump being a shoo-in is something I’ve never seen before. What gives widdat, Trump peoples? As \*\*Sam Stone \*\*said, a lot of it is based off of a confusion of what they _wish were_ the case, with what is actually the case. Based off the Trumpers I’ve encountered on Facebook, many assume that the rest of the American public thinks what they think. I can’t count how many posts I’ve read that go like this: _“Democrats are doing a witch hunt with these impeachment proceedings, can’t wait for November 2020 when the American electorate punishes the Democrats for their witch-hunting.”_ Sure, Democrats can behave similarly at times (remember all those Democrats confidently predicting that “America will soundly repudiate Trump’s racism and sexism at the ballot box come Election Day 2016?”) but since Trump is who we’re talking about, they assume others think similarly as they. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2019, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/747 "2019-12-14T14:42:06Z")
**[How Trump wins in 2020](https://www.axios.com/how-trump-wins-in-2020-68c9a4de-1274-418c-8115-7e031e17e83c.html)** > [@](#): > > President Trump’s re-election campaign wields more money, staff, infrastructure and advanced digital operations than the Democratic competitors — and a fan base that hears “impeachment” as a rallying cry. > > Driving the news: Over a 90-minute PowerPoint session at a hotel in Arlington, Va., on Thursday, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, campaign manager Brad Parscale and other senior Trump campaign officials presented dozens of national political reporters their theory of how Trump can win again in 2020. > > ``` > The briefing took place as the House Judiciary Committee debated the articles of impeachment against Trump — setting up his near-certain impeachment by the full House next week. > > ``` > > The top takeaways: > > 1. Crushing the Never-Trumpers: They’ve “remade” the state parties in “the president’s image,” per one official — with 42 state party chair elections since the 2018 midterms. The Trump campaign isn’t tolerating anti-Trump officials in state party leadership positions in 2020. > > 2. “New math”: Tiny counties traditionally overlooked by candidates helped deliver Trump his 2016 victories in states like Wisconsin (where the smallest 48 counties = 22% of the statewide vote) and Pennsylvania (where the 45 smallest counties = 20% of the statewide vote), senior officials said. > > 3. “The DJT Disengager”: This is another focus for the campaign. These are voters who remain enthusiastic about Trump but didn’t vote in the 2018 midterms when Trump wasn’t on the ballot. > > 4. Making the best of his unpopularity: Impeachment has been good for business, advisers said. > > 5. The machine: They’re now trying to turn a single Trump rally into a “four or five day experience for that location,” an official said, by building in an extra stop by Vice President Mike Pence, local media hits from surrogates, targeted fundraising drives and volunteer outreach. With Dirty Tricks to back up this strategy, it’s [del]gonna[/del] very likely to happen. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2019, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/748 "2019-12-14T14:51:58Z")
People were excited to vote for Obama. Lots of bumper stickers, hats, etc. I did not see people being excited about Clinton in 2016. And I don’t see people excited about Biden. One good thing about Warren and Sanders is their backers are excited about them. ---
**Author:** ![racepug](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f1d935/32.png) [@racepug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/racepug)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2019, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/749 "2019-12-14T14:58:12Z")
Unfortunately, more and more I’m beginning to think that the answer is “Yes.” I _really_ hope I’m wrong on that count but I’m seeing it as more and more of a possibility. ---
**Author:** ![racepug](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f1d935/32.png) [@racepug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/racepug)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2019, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/750 "2019-12-14T15:01:25Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > People were excited to vote for Obama. Lots of bumper stickers, hats, etc. I did not see people being excited about Clinton in 2016. And I don’t see people excited about Biden. One good thing about Warren and Sanders is their backers are excited about them. This. As I’ve posted elsewhere, “Sleepy Joe” strikes me as being about as exciting as wet toilet paper. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2019, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/751 "2019-12-14T16:43:24Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > **[How Trump wins in 2020](https://www.axios.com/how-trump-wins-in-2020-68c9a4de-1274-418c-8115-7e031e17e83c.html)** > > With Dirty Tricks to back up this strategy, it’s [del]gonna[/del] very likely to happen. > > ☹ I’ll add one more, which might sound crazy but isn’t: increasing the Black and Brown vote. It sounds nuts, but it isn’t when you think about the fact that in 2016, he couldn’t do much worse with these demographics. If he can just go from off-the-charts historically bad with Black and Latino voters to, well, still pretty damn bad, it might make a difference, particularly in areas with large numbers of black and brown voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Further, he doesn’t necessarily have to bring all that many more Black and Brown voters to his side if he and Putin can wage enough information warfare against the Democrats to discourage them from voting for Biden, or whoever the nominee is. I’ll add that, even though I am not really a supporter of Sanders or Warren, this type of info warfare campaign probably works better against an establishment centrist like Biden than it does against the rest of the field. On another note, I think that, assuming the nominee is Biden, the map for 2020 is nearly set in stone already, from what I can tell. I don’t think Trump loses in Florida. I don’t think he loses in Ohio or North Carolina, either. Biden will keep most (if not all) of what Clinton won in 2016. The question is whether Trump can keep the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He needs to win two of three. I think he is in danger of losing in all three states, but impeachment and a strong economy will energize his voters, and since many moderate voters who supported Dems in the midterms didn’t want an impeachment anyway, they may turn against the left in 2020. But Trump’s campaign and Russia will inundate Black and Brown voters with messaging warfare that will dampen whatever enthusiasm they might have. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2019, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/752 "2019-12-14T17:12:54Z")
I am posting to thank **ThelmaLou** for several excellent links, including these: > [@ThelmaLou](#): > > The “need for chaos” drives thump supporters. > > [ **The Trump Voters Whose ‘Need for Chaos’ Obliterates Everything Else** > _Political nihilism is one of the president’s strongest weapons._](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/04/opinion/trump-voters-chaos.html?emc=rss&partner=rss) > [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Voter suppression-- look for more of it … > > [The Student Vote Is Surging. So Are Efforts to Suppress It.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/24/us/voting-college-suppression.html?searchResultPosition=1) … > But the Republicans don’t want those uppity, _librul, edumacated_ stoo-dunts out there telling their elders and betters how to run this here country. College is a bad influence-- it just makes them too big for their britches. > [@ThelmaLou](#): > > [ **America After Trump** > _Even if he loses the next election, the damage he’s done to our political system will be lasting._](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/12/when-trump-goes/600736/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheAtlantic+%28The+Atlantic+-+Master+Feed%29)On the other hand, Even if he loses (please God), we’re screwed for a looooong time. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2019, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/753 "2019-12-14T17:34:06Z")
Economic forecaster David Rosenberg is pretty confident that recession will strike in 2019. (I think he predicts it to be a mild recession.) This may seem like good news for the D’s electoral chances. But, regardless of who wins in November, I’m afraid that even a mild recession may turn into more than a minor blip. We can expect the Fed Res to react aggressively, pushing interest rates down to near-zero, and resuming Quantitative Easing. Furthermore, worried about the Fall elections, the GOP regime will act aggressively with more fiscal spending intended to stimulate (though Rosenberg thinks beneficial effects are well-diminished there). Expect Trump to announce a trade deal which, if nothing else, may give a psychological boost. The stock market is already buoyed up by the debt bubble and record-setting buybacks; more and more effort must be applied to keep this party going. (Looking beyond the coming recession and election, I think the world economy has been in an uncharted malaise for the last decade. I predict that over-reach by Trump and his Party to salvage the 2020 election will exacerbate the unprecedented debt bubble and take the world economy into even more treacherous seas. But this belongs in a a different thread.) ---
**Author:** ![str8cashhomie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/7cd45c/32.png) [@str8cashhomie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/str8cashhomie)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2019, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/754 "2019-12-14T17:38:49Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I’ll add one more, which might sound crazy but isn’t: increasing the Black and Brown vote. > > It sounds nuts, but it isn’t when you think about the fact that in 2016, he couldn’t do much worse with these demographics. If he can just go from off-the-charts historically bad with Black and Latino voters to, well, still pretty damn bad, it might make a difference, particularly in areas with large numbers of black and brown voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Further, he doesn’t necessarily have to bring all that many more Black and Brown voters to his side if he and Putin can wage enough information warfare against the Democrats to discourage them from voting for Biden, or whoever the nominee is. I’ll add that, even though I am not really a supporter of Sanders or Warren, this type of info warfare campaign probably works better against an establishment centrist like Biden than it does against the rest of the field. Trump did worse with Black and Latino voters than average for a GOP candidate in the last 40 years, but he wasn’t outside of the normal range by any stretch. Trump, 2016: 8% of Black vote, 28% of Hispanic vote Romney, 2012: 6%, 27% McCain, 2008: 4%, 31% G W Bush, 2004: 11%, 44% Bush, 2000: 8%, 35% Dole, 1996: 12%, 21% G HW Bush, 1992: 10%, 25% (Ross Perot did get 7% and 14% respectively, which makes this a slightly worse sample) G HW Bush, 1988: 11%, 30% (source: [How Groups Voted | Roper Center for Public Opinion Research](https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/data-highlights/elections-and-presidents/how-groups-voted)) His numbers with these groups also [haven’t](https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/268517/analyzing-black-support-president-trump.aspx) [changed](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/05/trump-latino-poll-066187) since the 2016 elections. AFAIK, the only significant demographic change in Trump’s approval since last election is [losing significant ground with white women](https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2019-10-24/poll-donald-trump-has-a-woman-problem). ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2019, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/755 "2019-12-14T17:41:07Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Economic forecaster David Rosenberg is pretty confident that recession will strike in 2019. 2019? He’s got only seventeen days left for his prediction to come true. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2019, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/756 "2019-12-14T17:46:25Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > The confidence of Trump supporters continues to astonish me. Their guy may indeed win but the implication that they have some kind of secret knowledge about Trump being a shoo-in is something I’ve never seen before. What gives widdat, Trump peoples? What I find fascinating is that BOTH Trump supporters and Trump opponents seem to be energetically predicting a Trump victory in 2020, on the same scant evidence. (I mean, he _could_ win, absolutely, but it would be a tight, close win, and both head-to-head polling and actual election results from 2017, 2018, and 2019 suggest that he is probably not the favorite.) I dunno, maybe there is more hand-wringing in private on the Republican side and I’m just not privy to those conversations, but I think it reflects an interesting difference in temperament between the parties. (I believe there is also political science research that shows BOTH Democrats and Republicans tend to assume that Republican policies are more popular with the public than they really are.) ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2019, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/757 "2019-12-14T18:09:24Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > I am posting to thank **ThelmaLou** for several excellent links, including these: Oh goodness. 🙂 You’re certainly welcome. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2019, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/758 "2019-12-14T18:18:58Z")
> [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > What I find fascinating is that BOTH Trump supporters and Trump opponents seem to be energetically predicting a Trump victory in 2020, on the same scant evidence. (I mean, he _could_ win, absolutely, but it would be a tight, close win, and both head-to-head polling and actual election results from 2017, 2018, and 2019 suggest that he is probably not the favorite.) I dunno, maybe there is more hand-wringing in private on the Republican side and I’m just not privy to those conversations, but I think it reflects an interesting difference in temperament between the parties. (I believe there is also political science research that shows BOTH Democrats and Republicans tend to assume that Republican policies are more popular with the public than they really are.) I suspect one reason is that some Democrats want to do the “hedge-your-bets” psychological thing whereby you deliberately predict or claim that something is likely worse than it actually is, so that you feel better when it turns out not to happen. By analogy, a Miami sports journalist, Israel Gutierrez, was known to do this when it came to the Miami Heat. He would predict that the Heat would lose, so that if they lost, he’d appear correct, but if they won, he could enjoy their winning. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2019, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/759 "2019-12-14T19:54:14Z")
a lot of Trump fans only care about getting right wing judges. they don’t care if Trump bangs 1000 porn stars if he nominates the right judges. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2019, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/760 "2019-12-14T20:22:08Z")
I think there’s an almost 50% chance of a re-election. If the actual campaign were held now I’d say it would be more like 30% in a fair election. But a lot can happen between now and the election, most of it bad, since so many states only barely favor the generic blue candidate. And add in the chance of foul play and the election is no sure thing. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=37) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=39)