# Do you think Trump will win in 2020? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 19, 2019, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728 "2019-06-19T01:50:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 40
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2019, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/781 "2019-12-16T19:35:42Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > This is the way Fox News and the GOP apparatus want these folks to think about Democratic policy, but there are a ton of Democratic policies supported by pretty much everyone that would greatly help these folks (and are generally very popular with these folks): higher minimum wage, universal health care, stronger labor protection, mandatory paid parental leave, child care assistance, etc. So are you saying that the democrats have not shifted their focus from equality of opportunity to equality of results? Are you saying that democrats are not engaging in identity politics? Or are you saying that democrats are doing stuff that also helps poor white males. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2019, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/782 "2019-12-16T19:48:30Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > So are you saying that the democrats have not shifted their focus from equality of opportunity to equality of results? > > Are you saying that democrats are not engaging in identity politics? > > Or are you saying that democrats are doing stuff that also helps poor white males. No. Not unless you consider that the Republicans are engaging in straight, white male identity politics. One of the parties has to counter that. Yes. Most Democratic policies would help everyone except maybe the very wealthy. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2019, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/783 "2019-12-16T19:53:14Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > So are you saying that the democrats have not shifted their focus from equality of opportunity to equality of results? Yes, I’m saying this, speaking generally. > [@](#): > > Are you saying that democrats are not engaging in identity politics? Yes, I’m also saying this, speaking generally. They’re certainly engaging in “identity politics” far less than the Republicans are. > [@](#): > > Or are you saying that democrats are doing stuff that also helps poor white males. Yes, they’re also doing this. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2019, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/784 "2019-12-16T22:16:48Z")
> [@Airbeck](#): > > No. Can you clarify that? > [@](#): > > Not unless you consider that the Republicans are engaging in straight, white male identity politics. One of the parties has to counter that. And a lot of these swing voters in the rust belt are straight white males, aren’t they. Perhaps they can pander to them a little bit. > [@](#): > > Yes. Most Democratic policies would help everyone except maybe the very wealthy. It’s not the policies (aside from affirmative action) that make them race panderers. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2019, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/785 "2019-12-17T03:30:51Z")
> [@Sterling\_Archer](#): > > … For most people, voting is about right and wrong, not “who can help me with my disadvantage?” I really hope most people don’t vote completely selfishly like you are assuming here. As a white man in the top 10% income percentile, I vote democratic because the Republican Party has become an absolute shit show with no regard for reality or morality. I feel that _because_ “my vote won’t matter anyway” I should cast my vote in society’s interest rather than my own. In a tiny local election where my vote _might_ matter, I might feel obliged to vote selfishly in my family’s interest, but in a large election I have the luxury of altruism. Do others feel this way? > [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > So are you saying that the democrats have not shifted their focus from equality of opportunity to equality of results?.. > [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > It’s not the policies (aside from affirmative action) that make them race panderers. Sadly, I fear **Damuri Ajashi** has a point. And affirmative action isn’t the only policy: there’s also talk of “reparations.” Also blacks suffer disproportionately from student loan delinquency, so loan forgiveness can be considered pro-black. (Because I’m certain blacks still suffer oppression, my immediate reaction on hearing — from Warren? — that blacks had a big student loan problem was “maybe student loan forgiveness isn’t such a bad idea.” Am I, too, a race panderer?) ---
**Author:** ![TimeWinder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bcef8e/32.png) [@TimeWinder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TimeWinder)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2019, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/786 "2019-12-17T03:45:36Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > So are you saying that the democrats have not shifted their focus from equality of opportunity to equality of results? Despite this as a constant Republican talking point, equality of opportunity and equality of results ARE THE SAME THING. If we’re not achieving the latter, we didn’t achieve the former, either. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2019, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/787 "2019-12-17T03:53:51Z")
> [@TimeWinder](#): > > Despite this as a constant Republican talking point, equality of opportunity and equality of results ARE THE SAME THING. They are absolutely, absolutely, \*\*not \*\*the same thing. Give LeBron James and I each a basketball and say, “Go dunk the basketball in that hoop over there.” LeBron will dunk that thing all day long. I would be lucky to even reach within one foot of the hoop. ---
**Author:** ![Sterling\_Archer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f1d935/32.png) [@Sterling\_Archer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sterling_Archer)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2019, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/788 "2019-12-17T04:15:22Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > They are absolutely, absolutely, \*\*not \*\*the same thing. > > Give LeBron James and I each a basketball and say, “Go dunk the basketball in that hoop over there.” LeBron will dunk that thing all day long. I would be lucky to even reach within one foot of the hoop. So you’re saying the gulf between white people’s success in society and African-American success in society is like the talent gap between me and Lebron? I know, I know, you were illustrating a point, not making an analogy but seriously… in this case with large populations it should be safe to assume that opportunity and results would be extremely closely aligned. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2019, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/789 "2019-12-17T04:18:32Z")
> [@Sterling\_Archer](#): > > So you’re saying the gulf between white people’s success in society and African-American success in society is like the talent gap between me and Lebron? > > I know, I know, you were illustrating a point, not making an analogy but seriously… in this case with large populations it should be safe to assume that opportunity and results would be extremely closely aligned. I’d be happy to discuss this in another thread - we probably shouldn’t sidetrack a “Will Trump get reelected in 2020” thread. ---
**Author:** ![TimeWinder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bcef8e/32.png) [@TimeWinder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TimeWinder)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2019, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/790 "2019-12-17T04:49:06Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > They are absolutely, absolutely, \*\*not \*\*the same thing. > > Give LeBron James and I each a basketball and say, “Go dunk the basketball in that hoop over there.” LeBron will dunk that thing all day long. I would be lucky to even reach within one foot of the hoop. FFS, we’re talking huge populations here, not individuals. Does that really have to be spelled out here? ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2019, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/791 "2019-12-17T14:11:05Z")
looks like the last president not re-elected with a good economy was Taft in 1912 but that was a 3 way race with Teddy Roosevelt taking a lot of GOP votes from Taft. Wilson the Dem won. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2019, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/792 "2019-12-17T14:48:23Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Sadly, I fear **Damuri Ajashi** has a point. And affirmative action isn’t the only policy: there’s also talk of “reparations.” Also blacks suffer disproportionately from student loan delinquency, so loan forgiveness can be considered pro-black. (Because I’m certain blacks still suffer oppression, my immediate reaction on hearing — from Warren? — that blacks had a big student loan problem was “maybe student loan forgiveness isn’t such a bad idea.” Am I, too, a race panderer?) > **[Now Pete Buttigieg is Pandering for Votes by Breaking the Law - Elections -...](http://www.city-data.com/forum/elections/3055174-now-pete-buttigieg-pandering-votes-breaking-2.html)** > > First we had 1/1024 Warren drinking the "beer" youtube moment. Now Pete Buttigieg decides it's good idea to drink out of a paper bag like a > **[Sriracha Gate? Hillary Clinton Mocked Mercilessly for Hot Sauce Comment -...](https://www.thewrap.com/sriracha-gate-hillary-clinton-mocked-mercilessly-for-hot-sauce-comment/)** > > Former secretary of state feels the heat after telling hip hop radio show that she always carries a bottle of hot sauce in her purse Stuff like that. Took me about 30 seconds when I googled democrats pandering to blacks ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2019, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/793 "2019-12-17T14:52:00Z")
> [@TimeWinder](#): > > Despite this as a constant Republican talking point, equality of opportunity and equality of results ARE THE SAME THING. If we’re not achieving the latter, we didn’t achieve the former, either. That is exactly the faulty logic being used by democrats to push their equality of results agenda. What evidence do you have for your assertion? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2019, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/794 "2019-12-17T14:57:16Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > That is exactly the faulty logic being used by democrats to push their equality of results agenda. > > What evidence do you have for your assertion? It involves the presumption that black people aren’t inherently inferior to other groups. Lots of Americans, unfortunately, believe otherwise… but if there aren’t inherently superior and inferior groups, then in a truly fair society, there will be fair and equal representation at the top (and bottom). ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2019, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/795 "2019-12-17T14:57:40Z")
Trump leads all four Democratic front runners in a recent USA Today poll. > **[USA TODAY Poll: Impeached or not, Trump leads his Democratic rivals for...](https://www.yahoo.com/news/usa-today-poll-impeached-not-215953702.html)** > > President Trump, facing impeachment in his first term, now leads top Democratic rivals in his bid for a second, a new USA TODAY/Suffolk poll finds. Given how the impeachment process is going, I’m of the opinion that right now Trump has a 50/50 chance at winning. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2019, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/796 "2019-12-17T14:59:08Z")
> [@Sterling\_Archer](#): > > So you’re saying the gulf between white people’s success in society and African-American success in society is like the talent gap between me and Lebron? > > I know, I know, you were illustrating a point, not making an analogy but seriously… in this case with large populations it should be safe to assume that opportunity and results would be extremely closely aligned. Why would it be safe to that opportunity and results would be closely aligned? Different groups have different cultures, priorities and values. Unless you think that having parents that make sacrifices for education is a form of “opportunity” I think a disparity in results would be expected based on differences in culture. The poorest ethnic group in NYC sends a disproportionate number of students to the three magnet schools compared to whites. Do these poor asian immigrants have more opportunity than the white kids in NYC? ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2019, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/797 "2019-12-17T15:00:08Z")
> [@TimeWinder](#): > > FFS, we’re talking huge populations here, not individuals. Does that really have to be spelled out here? Do you understand what an analogy is? ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2019, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/798 "2019-12-17T15:06:29Z")
I think this election is still going to be very tight. I still think Trump is going to win. I was originally saying 50/50, but I think it is probably more like 60/40. If Trump’s obvious criminal behaviour isn’t convincing anybody that he shouldn’t be reelected, then I think he’s going to win. He’s going to lie to voters (and they’ll believe him). There will be the maximum amount of cheating from the GOP that they think they can get away with while still being able to claim it was a free and fair election (democracy in the USA will continue to be eroded over the next 20 years). There will be interference from the Russians to press down on the scales even more, in particular trying to divide the Democrats. The economy will be doing at least ok, and it won’t matter because Trump will just lie and say it is doing great. Any obvious indicators that it isn’t doing great will be because of the Democrats in Congress. The average voter makes me very sad. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2019, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/799 "2019-12-17T15:11:13Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > Why would it be safe to that opportunity and results would be closely aligned? > > Different groups have different cultures, priorities and values. > > Unless you think that having parents that make sacrifices for education is a form of “opportunity” I think a disparity in results would be expected based on differences in culture. > > The poorest ethnic group in NYC sends a disproportionate number of students to the three magnet schools compared to whites. Do these poor asian immigrants have more opportunity than the white kids in NYC? Do you think some types of people are intrinsically better or more capable than other types of people? Be it, race, color, class, gender, or whatever category you want to consider. If you do believe this, then you would not expect equality of opportunity to correlate to equality of outcome. If you believe that all people have potential and that one type of person is on average equal to other types of people, then you would expect equality of opportunity across all types of people to lead to a closer equality of outcome for everyone. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2019, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/800 "2019-12-17T15:12:24Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > Do you understand what an analogy is? Do you understand the concept that one anecdote is not data? Same principal here. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=39) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=41)