# Do you think Trump will win in 2020? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 19, 2019, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728 "2019-06-19T01:50:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![pjacks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@pjacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjacks)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2019, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/121 "2019-06-22T03:28:06Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Yeah, this is making me nuts. Biden is talking about a time when even people who hated each other in private could work together in public. That was a Good Thing. Today’s young lawmakers seem to think that standing with your arms folded, shouting “NO!” year after year is the way to get things done. This saintly bipartisanship is ultimately what led to wonderful things like the Iraq War and the Great Recession. Those times are dead and rightfully so. Standing with his arms folded shouting “NO!” year after year also worked great for Mitch McConnell. The courts have been transformed for a generation, while Trump has pretty much made erased most of everything Obama accomplished (I cringed typing that, because he didn’t accomplish much at all, besides whining about how mean Republicans are). The democrats need to realize we are in a Cold Civil War, and any chance of bipartisanship or “getting things done” is over. The system needs to be radically altered, and the Dems need to start disenfranchising conservative voters whenever possible, just as Republicans do to their enemies. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2019, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/122 "2019-06-22T03:43:41Z")
> [@pjacks](#): > > … Ronald Reagan’s approval rating was in the low 30s through much of his first term … No it wasn’t. He relatively briefly dropped as low as Trump has consistently been and by the end of his third year was back over 50% approval. Never low 30s and upper 30s only briefly. Why make up shit? Reagan’s approval was down for a bit after being higher due to a poor economy and came up as the economy picked up. Trump is in the dump with a booming economy continuing the expansion that predates him. I hope the economy stays fine but cycles are cycles and a downturn is very possible. If he’s this low now what would he be during a sputter? ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2019, 6:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/123 "2019-06-22T06:39:13Z")
> [@2ManyTacos](#): > > It’s hard to say and I am reluctant to make a firm prediction, but from my POV _today_ Trump is ever-so-slightly the favorite, so 55-45% likelihood that he is reelected. Still, that’s really based on nothing other than the fact that most incumbent presidents are reelected, so Trump is favored by default if nothing else. Now, if you factor in any potential cheating that he, his DOJ, and Republican states may do during the election - not to mention the possibility that Russian meddling might lead to ACTUAL vote-switching - then his odds may skyrocket. > > The thing is, though, I think he has basically no chance at winning the popular vote, but because of the EC he could still win anyway. If that were to happen then we are all going to run headfirst into a legitimacy crisis of the US government. There is no legitimacy crises because the so-called popular vote is irrelevant. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2019, 8:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/124 "2019-06-22T08:26:59Z")
Trump has shocked me many times over the past four years. But today he did so in a brand new, completely different way. To understand what I am saying, please go to this link and resist reading the tweets, which are less coherent and delivered in his usual hyperbolic manner. Just watch the video and try to push out of your mind everything you know about this guy. Doesn’t he sound rational, authoritative, even thoughtful? 😕 If he had pivoted into this mode immediately after the 2016 election and never deviated from it, he would be unbeatable right now. I want Democrats to win, so I am glad he did not! [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/06/21/trump\_to\_chuck\_todd\_i\_stopped\_iran\_attack\_before\_it\_happened\_killing\_150\_people\_is\_not\_proportionate.html](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/06/21/trump_to_chuck_todd_i_stopped_iran_attack_before_it_happened_killing_150_people_is_not_proportionate.html) ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2019, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/125 "2019-06-22T17:23:26Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Trump has shocked me many times over the past four years. But today he did so in a brand new, completely different way. To understand what I am saying, please go to this link and resist reading the tweets, which are less coherent and delivered in his usual hyperbolic manner. Just watch the video and try to push out of your mind everything you know about this guy. Doesn’t he sound rational, authoritative, even thoughtful? 😕 If he had pivoted into this mode immediately after the 2016 election and never deviated from it, he would be unbeatable right now. I want Democrats to win, so I am glad he did not! > > [Trump to Chuck Todd: I Stopped Iran Attack Before It Happened, Killing 150 People Is Not Proportionate | Video | RealClearPolitics](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/06/21/trump_to_chuck_todd_i_stopped_iran_attack_before_it_happened_killing_150_people_is_not_proportionate.html) stopped clock, blind squirrel. ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2019, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/126 "2019-06-22T17:32:57Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > There is no legitimacy crises because the so-called popular vote is irrelevant. A president who twice wins in spite of acquiring millions of fewer votes than his opponent necessarily calls into question whether the US government legitimately represents the will of its people. I get that the electoral college exists and yadda yadda yadda, but…people vastly overestimate the stability of the US Constitutional order. The persistent inability of the majority to exert its will is the kind of shit that has historically led to revolutions. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/127 "2019-06-24T02:17:29Z")
I loathe him with a passion, am a loyal Dem and hope to God I’m wrong, but yes, I suspect Trump will win. An incumbent President with a (seemingly) good economy is always tough to beat. If Trump stopped tweeting between now and Election Day 2020 and didn’t start a war with Iran or anyone else, I think he just might win in a landslide. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/128 "2019-06-24T02:58:41Z")
I voted “no”. I’m willing to risk being wrong again. And I may very well be, given the incumbent effect and the fact that we are nowhere near determining who the specific Democratic nominee may be. Nevertheless, in an informal personal poll with the respondents consisting of “people I know and who have expressed a political viewpoint recently”, the weight and depth of loathing for Mr. Trump is really quite striking. But, yeah, yeah, miniscule sample size and non-random, so take it with a block of salt. OP: IMO it would be best to re-run this poll once the actual Dem nominee has been selected. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/129 "2019-06-24T03:15:42Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > I loathe him with a passion, am a loyal Dem and hope to God I’m wrong, but yes, I suspect Trump will win. An incumbent President with a (seemingly) good economy is always tough to beat. If Trump stopped tweeting between now and Election Day 2020 and didn’t start a war with Iran or anyone else, I think he just might win in a landslide. Since 1900, the following incumbent Presidents have run for a second term, and lost William Howard Taft Herbert Hoover Gerald Ford Jimmy Carter George H.W. Bush. Taft lost because he was seen as Teddy Roosevelt’s weak carbon copy, and Roosevelt decided he wanted to be President again. Hoover got stuck in the worst economic turmoil the U.S. has ever suffered. Being President is the only thing Hoover ever failed at. Gerald Ford was such a special case I don’t think he can be used for an example, but [even he didn’t lose by very much.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_United_States_presidential_election) Carter was hit by both economic and foreign policy problems, and he faced an extremely charismatic opponent in Ronald Reagan. And Bush Sr. ticked off conservatives in his own party, and they sat on their hands, plus he was a weak candidate, plus he got hit by a recession, plus there was a third-party candidate with nationwide appeal. Trump could win this thing, even if he deliberately wants to lose. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/130 "2019-06-24T05:04:03Z")
In the instance of Bush Sr., I think it was more that Republicans had had the White House for 12 straight years and the public was tired of it. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 8:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/131 "2019-06-24T08:02:03Z")
If Joe Biden survives the primary but limps into the general the way Hillary Clinton did, yes, Trump could win the electoral college vote. The same is true if a far left candidate like Warren or Sanders - even if the party is energized, they will face skeptical voters in much of the industrial Midwest and they will almost certainly lose Florida. I won’t say that Warren or Sanders can’t win, but they’d probably need Trump to be in bad shape. If Biden loses, I don’t know which of the remaining candidates is viable and capable of building a coalition of hard left and center left progressives the way Obama did. Biden is not my idea of the prototypical candidate – maybe a younger Jerry Brown would have fit that description. But I hope Biden can avoid foot-in-mouth syndrome and I hope that Democrats can see past trivial controversies and support him. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 9:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/132 "2019-06-24T09:12:32Z")
> [@Mean\_Mr.Mustard](#): > > For a fun walk down memory lane, refer to [this poll](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=799202) from July 2016 in which 82% of responders predicted Clinton winning the election. > > A few comments from that thread: > > [ul] > [li]Hillary in a landslide.[/li][li]It is going to be Clinton. It was always going to be Clinton.[/li][li]Clinton, by more than predicted.[/li][li]There simply aren’t enough uneducated angry white male sexist racists out there to win for Trump.[/li][li]I can’t see how (Clinton) can avoid being elected right now.[/li][/ul] > > (I know it’s easy to cherry-pick with hindsight, just presenting these comments to illustrate how perfectly wrong we can be with great confidence) > mmm I didn’t reply in that particular thread, but I couldn’t conceive that female Republicans would actually vote for Trump. I expected them to simply abstain on the Presidential race. I was let down. ---
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 9:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/133 "2019-06-24T09:41:10Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > But I hope Biden can avoid foot-in-mouth syndrome Have you even \*met \*Joe Biden ? ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 11:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/134 "2019-06-24T11:08:07Z")
If the economy holds, then I think he wins. So I voted yes. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/135 "2019-06-24T11:44:48Z")
> [@Kobal2](#): > > Have you even \*met \*Joe Biden ? LOL, no. But to follow up, his recent gaffes with respect to working with segregationists to get legislation done may hurt him a little going into the campaign, but I think he can survive it. What would worry me if I were a Biden adviser is how he responds in the debates when Cory Booker and others confront him about the comments and push him to apologize in front of a national audience. Subconsciously, people are attracted to perceived strength and repulsed by perceived weakness. Making Biden defend himself and putting him on the defensive in front of millions of people might be damaging, even if voters weren’t necessarily aware of or offended by his original remarks. There’s no more hiding from the cameras for Biden. He has to bring it. ---
**Author:** ![Brayne\_Ded](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Brayne\_Ded](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brayne_Ded)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/136 "2019-06-24T12:14:10Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > Seriously? He and/or his “best people” have already engaged in multiple activities which, committed by a Clinton or any Democrat, would have been blown up into DEFCON-2 scandals by the Fox News party. We have a 400-page report documenting activity that any GOP congress would have used to launch immediate impeachment proceedings against any Dem president. > > Short of being caught on video handing Putin $100 billion in cash along with the nuclear launch codes, while simultaneously sucking the man’s dick and signing a notarized affidavit stating he knew all along evangelical Christians were idiots who would fall for his bullshit, no scandal is going to hurt his election chances. He weathered the Stormy Daniels business, unfortunately, but there could be more. Saw a report today that he allegedly raped a journalist. Well, it ain’t over till it’s over, hence my slightly plaintive "yet?) addition to my points. There’s still time for him to screw (up). ---
**Author:** ![Brayne\_Ded](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Brayne\_Ded](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brayne_Ded)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/137 "2019-06-24T12:20:40Z")
It is beginning to look as if Boris Johnson might become the British PM. Common ground with The First Cockatoo? - bad hair - incredible self-confidence (the word overweening comes to mind) - no clear agenda, despite some loudly proclaimed issue - total belief that he is right - poltiics as showbiz - the punters love it! - serious issues? Not here. The world is in good hands. The problem is that the hands belong to Bozo. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/138 "2019-06-24T13:17:22Z")
> [@Brayne\_Ded](#): > > …The world is in good hands. The problem is that the hands belong to Bozo. You have a peculiar definition of “good.” ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/139 "2019-06-24T13:49:45Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > You have a peculiar definition of “good.” I took that as irony. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/140 "2019-06-24T14:24:06Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > LOL, no. > > But to follow up, his recent gaffes … To be clear _those_ were not gaffes, they were his on point _branding_. IF (and while he is the odds on favorite it is very much still IF) he becomes the standard-bearer, he will have done so based on the appeal of that message to Democratic primary voters and will be selling that as the alternative to Trumpist hyper-partisan us vs themism. His brand is the counter-narrative to ever greater polarization. He is precisely positioning his message as one that tries to work things out with those “on the other side” and who negotiates rather than demands, trying to find the common ground to achieving the common good. It is aimed especially at the Obama-Trump voters, the Clinton-Romney voters, and eligible voters who don’t bother because the hyper-partisanship just turns them off. Those who are swingable and those who can be convinced to vote want to hear that something can actually get done, that government is not doomed to forever cycles of dysfunction, one side blocking the other forevermore. Even those who think that such is a dream have to accept that it is a dream that appeals to those voters. In the general those are not gaffes that will hurt him they are the image that he hopes will sell him: limiting the “other” to be demonized specifically to Trump and Trumpism. One can disagree with whether or not that brand message is going to be effective or not, but staying on that brand message is no gaffe. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=8)