# Do you think Trump will win in 2020? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 19, 2019, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728 "2019-06-19T01:50:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/141 "2019-06-24T14:40:28Z")
Joe Biden is IMHO neither smart enough nor disciplined enough to stay on-brand. Goofy remarks that have to be explained away and damage-controlled are just Joe being Joe. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/142 "2019-06-24T15:08:05Z")
Voted yes, and with that, brought the results back to 50/50. 🆒 Realistically, all we need to talk about is 3-5 states. I’m not persuaded enough has happened/changed to cause them to come out differently. Has there been any change in demographics to cause any states to change hue? What single issue/issues will cause a 16 Trump voter to vote for ANY of the Dems? The very things many of us find reprehensible, are a large part of why many people voted for this ignorant, offensive braggart. Many, many voters are stupid. And a good majority vote on how the economy is reported as doing - whether or not they feel the benefit personally. I’m not persuaded that the “anyone bout Hillary” voters swayed it to Trump. Take out “Lock her up!” and the remainder of Trump’s BS tweets will play the same to the same people. Many folk think governing via tweet is entirely appropriate - maybe even desirable. Many others enjoy the “entertainment” aspect of Trump as president - either enjoying the unpredictability, or the fact that Dems are apoplectic. Plus, I’d prefer being pessimistic, with a slight chance of being pleasantly surprised, rather than the alternative. :o ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/143 "2019-06-24T15:44:26Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Joe Biden is IMHO neither smart enough nor disciplined enough to stay on-brand. Goofy remarks that have to be explained away and damage-controlled are just Joe being Joe. And could be. I am in fact sure there will be gaffes. To some degree the expectation of them is as baked in for him as they are for Trump. And like for Trump for some they are part of the actual appeal, his “authenticity”, Joe being Joe, a real guy, not the result of focus groups. Nevertheless, those particular items were not gaffes. ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/144 "2019-06-24T16:08:08Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > If the economy holds, then I think he wins. So I voted yes. I don’t know why people keep harping on the “economy.” I don’t think it’s that great, and nobody I know (middle-aged professionals) thinks so either. I see storefronts closing all the time, wages are stagnant, the DJIA is flat, and there are panhandlers everywhere. What’s so great about it? ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/145 "2019-06-24T16:59:30Z")
I voted Yes. I just watched [Chris Cuomo interview Bill Maher.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrqWNDIOWtA) At the very end of the interview, beginning about 7:45, Maher talks about _political correctness_: > [@](#): > > I don’t think you can overestimate how much people have been choking on political correctness and hating it. There were two studies [published in _N.Y. Times_ and _Atlantic_]: … the vast majority of liberals in this country hate it: they think political correctness has gone way too far. No one likes to be living on eggshells. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/146 "2019-06-24T17:41:11Z")
> [@beowulff](#): > > I don’t know why people keep harping on the “economy.” > I don’t think it’s that great, and nobody I know (middle-aged professionals) thinks so either. I see storefronts closing all the time, wages are stagnant, the DJIA is flat, and there are panhandlers everywhere. What’s so great about it? That is why I said **a good majority vote on how the economy is reported as doing - whether or not they feel the benefit personally.** I have long been shocked at working class support for Repubs, whose policies seem directly aimed at hurting their economic position. But look at the papers - the economy is being WRITTEN ABOUT as going great guns. The stock market is up - nevermind that most middleclass folk have few stocks. Unemployment is down - no matter than new jobs are pt-time, min wage, etc. AND - perhaps most importantly - nevermind that the president is EXTREMELY limited in his/her responsibility for the economy’s ups or downs! Saw reported in the paper the consistent gains over the past decade. Yeah - well, I guess if you trash the economy badly enough 11-12 years ag, the last 10 can look downright rosy in comparison! (Too many) people are stupid, and are overly swayed by simplistic media. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/147 "2019-06-24T17:54:04Z")
> [@beowulff](#): > > I don’t know why people keep harping on the “economy.” > I don’t think it’s that great, and nobody I know (middle-aged professionals) thinks so either. I see storefronts closing all the time, wages are stagnant, the DJIA is flat, and there are panhandlers everywhere. What’s so great about it? What on earth? The DJIA was 19,827 on Inauguration Day, and Friday’s close was 26,719. How is that _flat_? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/148 "2019-06-24T18:16:21Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > What on earth? The DJIA was 19,827 on Inauguration Day, and Friday’s close was 26,719. How is that _flat_? I’d say Donald’s a piker. The Dow was 7550 when Obama took office, more that doubling during his tenure. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/149 "2019-06-24T18:21:29Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Trump has shocked me many times over the past four years. But today he did so in a brand new, completely different way. To understand what I am saying, please go to this link and resist reading the tweets, which are less coherent and delivered in his usual hyperbolic manner. Just watch the video and try to push out of your mind everything you know about this guy. Doesn’t he sound rational, authoritative, even thoughtful? 😕 If he had pivoted into this mode immediately after the 2016 election and never deviated from it, he would be unbeatable right now. I want Democrats to win, so I am glad he did not! > > [Trump to Chuck Todd: I Stopped Iran Attack Before It Happened, Killing 150 People Is Not Proportionate | Video | RealClearPolitics](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/06/21/trump_to_chuck_todd_i_stopped_iran_attack_before_it_happened_killing_150_people_is_not_proportionate.html) Ben Wittes over at Lawfare also made the same comment: [https://www.lawfareblog.com/praise-presidents-iran-tweets](https://www.lawfareblog.com/praise-presidents-iran-tweets) Given that Trump also had his first success on the job (by his own criteria), making Mexico mildly blink a few weeks ago, it is possible that he’s finally starting to sober up and do the job. More likely, though, he’s compromised and had to back down on Iran because Russia or someone told him to. Unfortunately, I do think that’s the more likely explanation - I’m not politically motivated to think that Trump has been compromised, I just think there’s too many actions that he has taken that make no sense, even from a Trumpian viewpoint. He just sounds coherent because he’s repeating what the people who advised him not to do it said. In the case of Mexico, well he had succeed at least once, eventually. ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/150 "2019-06-24T18:26:16Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > What on earth? The DJIA was 19,827 on Inauguration Day, and Friday’s close was 26,719. How is that _flat_? DJ was 26,616 on 1/26/18 and is 26, 719 on 6/21/19 If that’s not flat, I don’t know what is. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/151 "2019-06-24T18:28:38Z")
Did anyone vote based on the economy in 2016? I rather doubt many did and I think it’s even less likely this year. It’s going to be a referendum on Herr Donald and a personality contest between him and his opponent. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/152 "2019-06-24T18:36:56Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I’d say Donald’s a piker. The Dow was 7550 when Obama took office, more that doubling during his tenure. It’s up almost 35% since the Inauguration. That’s not flat by any reasonable definition of the word. ---
**Author:** ![Lightnin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lightnin/32/180_2.png) [@Lightnin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lightnin)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/153 "2019-06-24T19:00:46Z")
I voted “no”. The way I look at it, Trump hasn’t exactly gotten any new followers. His base will, of course, vote for him no matter what- he could literally shoot someone and not lose their support- but he really hasn’t been making inroads with anyone else. If anything, his non-base support has dropped. On the other hand, this last election was huge- and it was pretty crushing for the Republicans. Democrats were fired up- and that wasn’t a Presidential election. Democrats usually show a lackluster turnout… when it’s not for President. When it’s a Presidential election, Dems show up. Furthermore, Trump barely won last time. Can anyone argue that Trump will get \*more \*votes this time? 'Cause that’s the only way he’s going to do better than insert-Democratic-Politician-here. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/154 "2019-06-24T19:12:16Z")
But there are factors beyond our borders, too. I’m not one who believes Putin is pulling Trump’s strings, or that they even communicate all that much, but I _do_ believe that Putin is a clever operative making hay while the sun shines. Russia will do better under Trump than any opponent; therefore, Russia will be attempting to enable a Trump victory or, at the very least, cause disruption in such a way that the legitimacy of the Dem victory can be called into question among the debased base. That’s a pretty low bar. I suspect that China, for all the back-and-forth tariffing, is experiencing similar benefits. What better way to quell a restive Hong Kong and influence Taipei than to reduce American power and influence abroad? These can probably read polling data at least as well as Trump’s staff. Remember, they only have to target the swing states, and nudge the electoral college. Trump doesn’t have to win the hearts and minds of the American people. Also, a lot of the candidates are women. Remember last time? Misogyny, internalized, passive, or active, was just one of the many factors that tipped the election away from Clinton, but it was definitely a factor. I don’t think that is something the Dems should consider except in their strategy to get Warren, Harris, or whoever elected, but I certainly don’t think it should be discounted: society’s sexism can work in the favor of even an unremittingly idiotic asshole, as we have seen. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/155 "2019-06-24T22:10:12Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > …Given that Trump also had his first success on the job (by his own criteria), making Mexico mildly blink a few weeks ago, it is possible that he’s finally starting to sober up and do the job. > > … No, no. Don’t fall for that. Lucy/Football. Cheeseless tunnel. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Don’t go there. One apparently sensible thing doesn’t wipe away all the craziness. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2019, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/156 "2019-06-25T14:29:55Z")
[**An Electoral Time Machine Helps Republicans Keep Winning**](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/how-trump-could-win-2020/592354/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheAtlantic+%28The+Atlantic+-+Master+Feed%29http://) The upshot: “White Christians are no longer the majority in America, but they’re still driving election results.” > [@](#): > > …Much of the early punditry on Trump’s reelection prospects has focused on complex Electoral College scenarios—insights that, while valuable, shed little light on the bigger picture. I’ve come to answer the question this way: Yes, it is possible Trump gets reelected. While Democrats have the long-term demographic winds at their back, Republicans have a time machine: a consistent skew in ethnic and religious voter-turnout patterns that, in national elections, has the effect of turning back the demographic clock eight or more years. > > …\… > > While white Christians composed only 43 percent of the population in 2016, they constituted an estimated 55 percent of voters. And although white evangelical Protestants composed only 17 percent of the public in 2016, they were 26 percent of voters. In other words, in the electorate, white Christians overall were 12 percentage points overrepresented, and white evangelical Protestants were nine percentage points overrepresented. > > …\… > > What fuels the Republicans’ political strength, in other words, is not current white Christian population levels, but the fact that white Christians historically turn out to vote at higher rates than nonwhite and non-Christian Americans. **These higher turnout rates are driven by a number of factors.** > [ul] > [li]Voting is highly correlated with other forms of civic participation, such as church attendance. [/li][li]Voting is also highly correlated to education levels, and white Christians are more likely than nonwhite Christians to hold a four-year-college degree. [/li][li]Finally, voting is a habit that has been strongly emphasized in white Christian churches, especially among white evangelicals since the rise of the Christian right in the 1980s.[/li][/ul] > …\… > > According to current projections, 2024 will be the year that white Christians—already less than half the population—will be a minority in the electorate as well. Between now and then, on the one hand, Republicans will need to expand the base of their party if they want to continue to be competitive nationally. > > Democrats, on the other hand, need to take seriously the continued strength of this underappreciated Republican asset. > … I added bold and bullet points (to break up wall o’ text). In summary: GET OUT THE VOTE!! ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2019, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/157 "2019-06-27T12:39:53Z")
Though I remain scared shitless about the '20 election, I would like the people voting that Donald will win to explain where they see him getting votes that he didn’t get in '16. We know the newly eligible voters are going against him by 30+ points so who does he pick up? Voters from his demographic base who didn’t vote last time? Or Hilary and third party defectors? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2019, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/158 "2019-06-27T12:59:29Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > Though I remain scared shitless about the '20 election, I would like the people voting that Donald will win to explain where they see him getting votes that he didn’t get in '16. We know the newly eligible voters are going against him by 30+ points so who does he pick up? Voters from his demographic base who didn’t vote last time? Or Hilary and third party defectors? As I see it, there is basically one likely path to a Trump win: 1. Keep the economic numbers where they are 2. Preferably stay out of a foreign policy clusterfuck (Hello, Iran) 3. If you get into a possible clusterfuck with Iran, win convincingly at all costs 4. Keep giving your base the red meat that they crave 5. Number 4 will be an effective strategy if Biden’s the nominee because this could radicalize the Democrats and make Biden look weak by comparison; on the flip side, if it drives him to the left, then it potentially takes away his advantage of being a centrist or moderate with appeal to independents. 6. Encourage third party challenges to Biden’s left, or at least the talk of a 3rd party challenge 7. Suppress turnout 8. Win the electoral college outright, and if you don’t win it… 9. Contest the election in close states by taking the Democrats to court 10. Kick it to the House of Representatives, where Republicans controlling a majority of state caucuses will vote to re-elect him. It’s a complicated, tricky path, but it could happen. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2019, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/159 "2019-06-27T13:28:14Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > …6. Encourage third party challenges to Biden’s left, or at least the talk of a 3rd party challenge > > 1. Suppress turnout I see these two as the key to his reelection. > [@](#): > > 1. Win the electoral college outright, and if you don’t win it… > > 2. Contest the election in close states by taking the Democrats to court > > 3. Kick it to the House of Representatives, where Republicans controlling a majority of state caucuses will vote to re-elect him. > > … And these three as the _coup de grâce_/knockout punch. Even if he loses, he’s not going without a fight. ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2019, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/160 "2019-06-27T13:32:54Z")
In 2016 even the so-called Rs who disliked Trump voted for him because the Supreme Court was on the line. Ben Shapiro for example. With RBG’s situation it is quite possible a vacancy will arise soon and Trump will weaponise that to his benefit again while people on the Left are arguing about themselves about something that happened in 1995. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=9)