# Do you think we'll have terror alerts soon? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [September 19, 2008, 7:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-well-have-terror-alerts-soon/464278 "2008-09-19T07:09:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2008, 7:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-well-have-terror-alerts-soon/464278/1 "2008-09-19T07:09:13Z")
My wife and I were watching CNN today and they mentioned that Obama currently has a slight lead in the polls. She wondered aloud if the Bush administration would start issuing terror alerts as the election neared. I had kind of forgot about our rainbow of terror in 2004. What do y’al think. Will they dare do it this time around? ---
**Author:** ![Sublight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@Sublight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sublight)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2008, 9:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-well-have-terror-alerts-soon/464278/2 "2008-09-19T09:05:39Z")
On the one hand, I’d say it’s way too late in the race and too long since the last alert (have there even been any since the last election?) to appear to be anything other than a pathetically transparent attempt to manipulate voters through scare tactics. On the other hand, it would work. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2008, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-well-have-terror-alerts-soon/464278/3 "2008-09-19T15:19:46Z")
There is an orange chance of a red alert. ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2008, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-well-have-terror-alerts-soon/464278/4 "2008-09-19T15:22:59Z")
If they issue a terror alert and don’t catch any actual terrorists, I would wager that would not look so good for them. The Boy who Cried Wolf is a story well-known to most Americans. If they issue a terror alert and do catch some terrorists, I would wager the Obama camp could spin that into “Hey, look, Bush’s government has had eight years to get this locked down… time to try a new approach.” ---
**Author:** ![5-HT](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/5/f19dbf/32.png) [@5-HT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/5-HT)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2008, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-well-have-terror-alerts-soon/464278/5 "2008-09-19T15:26:11Z")
> [@Ethilrist](#): > > If they issue a terror alert and don’t catch any actual terrorists, I would wager that would not look so good for them. The Boy who Cried Wolf is a story well-known to most Americans. > > If they issue a terror alert and do catch some terrorists, I would wager the Obama camp could spin that into “Hey, look, Bush’s government has had eight years to get this locked down… time to try a new approach.” It’s been awhile since I last paid any attention to the terror level, but as I remember it, their M.O. before was to raise it for a time and then lower it again whilst insinuating that there were threats they couldn’t talk about that had somehow been defeated in the meantime. ---
**Author:** ![NurseCarmen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5daacb/32.png) [@NurseCarmen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NurseCarmen)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2008, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-well-have-terror-alerts-soon/464278/6 "2008-09-19T15:29:09Z")
> [@5-HT](#): > > It’s been awhile since I last paid any attention to the terror level, but as I remember it, their M.O. before was to raise it for a time and then lower it again whilst insinuating that there were threats they couldn’t talk about that had somehow been defeated in the meantime. You forget that there would be a vague mention of a locale. And maybe a police presence at a locale. I would think the mention of a “Suburban shopping mall” this time around would be vague enough to get a rube’s tits in a ringer. ---
**Author:** ![ratatoskK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ratatoskk/32/2987_2.png) [@ratatoskK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ratatoskK)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2008, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-well-have-terror-alerts-soon/464278/7 "2008-09-19T15:50:06Z")
Normally their modus operandi would be to have one around now. But given the financial crisis, I don’t think they’d risk it. ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2008, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-well-have-terror-alerts-soon/464278/8 "2008-09-19T17:03:14Z")
> [@5-HT](#): > > It’s been awhile since I last paid any attention to the terror level, but as I remember it, their M.O. before was to raise it for a time and then lower it again whilst insinuating that there were threats they couldn’t talk about that had somehow been defeated in the meantime. I drive past the airport every day on my way to work. There’s a big LED sign with the current terror level listed on it. It hasn’t changed in three years. For all I know, it has no other settings. If it did change, I wouldn’t know what to do to change my habits appropriately; if they lower it, is it okay for me to bring weapons to the airport with me? If they raise it, do I need to lock myself in my house and hide in the closet? Also, it might take me a few days to notice that it’s changed; it’d probably make the news, but not right away. ---
**Author:** ![5-HT](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/5/f19dbf/32.png) [@5-HT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/5-HT)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2008, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-well-have-terror-alerts-soon/464278/9 "2008-09-19T17:10:48Z")
Here’s the history: > [@](#): > > High (Orange) > > On a blanket, nationwide level, it has been raised to High five times: > > ``` > * September 10 - September 24, 2002, around the first anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks. > * February 7 - February 27, 2003, near the end of the Muslim religious holiday Hajj. Intelligence reports suggested the possibility of terrorist attacks against "apartment buildings, hotels, and other soft or lightly secured targets." > * March 17 - April 16, 2003, around the beginning of U.S. and Coalition military action in Iraq. > * May 20 - May 30, 2003, after the Riyadh compound bombings and the Casablanca bombings. According to Tom Ridge: "The U.S. Intelligence Community believes that Al Qaeda has entered an operational period worldwide, and this may include terrorist attacks in the United States." > * December 21, 2003 - January 9, 2004, citing intelligence information suggesting large-scale attacks around the holiday season. > > ``` > > In addition, the alert has been raised to High on a select or partial basis three times: > > ``` > * August 1 - November 10, 2004, for specific financial institutions in northern New Jersey, New York, and Washington, D.C., citing intelligence pointing to the possibility of a car or truck bomb attack, naming specific buildings as possible targets. > * July 7, 2005 - August 12, 2005, for mass transit systems only. The DHS secretary announced the level after the 7 July 2005 London bombings despite the absence of "specific, credible information suggesting imminent attack" in the United States. > * August 10, 2006 - Present, for all domestic airline flights and all international flights to or from the United States, with the exception of flights from the United Kingdom to the United States. Flights from the United Kingdom to the United States had been under a severe alert, but were downgraded to a high alert on August 14, 2006. > > ``` [terror threat levels](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terror_threat_level#Threat_level_changes) ---
**Author:** ![The\_Devil\_s\_Grandmother](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/74df32/32.png) [@The\_Devil\_s\_Grandmother](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Devil_s_Grandmother)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2008, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-well-have-terror-alerts-soon/464278/10 "2008-09-19T19:33:52Z")
> [@ratatoskK](#): > > Normally their modus operandi would be to have one around now. But given the financial crisis, I don’t think they’d risk it. I’m inclined to agree with this. But then, I’m also tin-foil-hatty enough to be watching to see if the price of gas drops 50 cents or so before the elections as I predicted it would last summer. It’s on it’s way down a little, but there’s still time for me to win the bet. ---
**Author:** ![Necros](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/necros/32/11086_2.png) [@Necros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Necros)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2008, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-well-have-terror-alerts-soon/464278/11 "2008-09-19T21:20:48Z")
If we look at the list **5-HT** has posted, it would appear that the threat level has not been raised to orange on intangible threats, and never during an election cycle in order to scare people. Hmm… So, my vote is with “No, they won’t dare do it this time around [as they have also not dared before]”. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Gala\_Matrix\_Fire](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/4da419/32.png) [@Gala\_Matrix\_Fire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gala_Matrix_Fire)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2008, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-well-have-terror-alerts-soon/464278/12 "2008-09-19T22:32:03Z")
This is a bit of a tangent, but while perusing the [National Counterterrorism Center’s 2008 calendar](http://www.nctc.gov/site/index.html)one day, I saw that even the government freely admits that they’ve killed or captured al-Qaeda’s number three guy five times already! (Unfortunately, I can’t find the exact page anymore) It’s not just a funny [Uncyclopedia page](http://uncyclopedia.org/wiki/Al_qaeda_number_three). ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2008, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-well-have-terror-alerts-soon/464278/13 "2008-09-20T00:14:24Z")
> [@Necros](#): > > So, my vote is with “No, they won’t dare do it this time around [as they have also not dared before]”. 🙂 Exactly. The idea they it is raised to get votes is just something people believe with no evidence. And I’m not a Republican or George W. Bush supporter. Sigh. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2008, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-well-have-terror-alerts-soon/464278/14 "2008-09-20T02:56:19Z")
> [@Necros](#): > > If we look at the list **5-HT** has posted, it would appear that the threat level has not been raised to orange on intangible threats, and never during an election cycle in order to scare people. Hmm… > > So, my vote is with “No, they won’t dare do it this time around [as they have also not dared before]”. 🙂 Tom Ridge the former Homeland Security head disagrees with you. He felt that the administration often wanted to raise the alerts with little justification. [http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2005-05-10-ridge-alerts\_x.htm](http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2005-05-10-ridge-alerts_x.htm) and the alerts during the 2004 election often coincided with campaign events [http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1211369,00.html](http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1211369,00.html)