# Does anybody understand how Mexico will pay for the wall? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [January 25, 2017, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144 "2017-01-25T14:59:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2017, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144/121 "2017-01-26T19:33:29Z")
> [@slash2k](#): > > Carlos goes to the local Envio Dinero establishment, pays them their fee, and tells them he wants to send $300 to Miguel in Guanajuato. Does Carlos know or care of the local money broker sends it by way of Gujarat? > > (As noted above, there are 30,000 registered money transfer businesses and plenty that aren’t. Monitoring, investigating, and shutting down all the ones that evade regulations costs money and time.) We could build walls around them. ---
**Author:** ![Majestic\_Lee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e5b9ba/32.png) [@Majestic\_Lee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Majestic_Lee)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2017, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144/122 "2017-01-26T20:25:11Z")
It’ll be interesting to see if the TV viewing figures will be greater when the Mexican Wall comes down than when the Berlin Wall came down. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![CurtC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ce73a5/32.png) [@CurtC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CurtC)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2017, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144/123 "2017-01-26T20:41:49Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > But Trump _can_ **start** his wall. He _will_ be able to\* say\* “Mexico is paying for it”. … because, as we’ve seen, he doesn’t care if what he _says_ has any relation to the truth at all. ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2017, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144/124 "2017-01-26T21:12:52Z")
> [@rbroome](#): > > Sigh. > I am another person who have always thought the wall and especially having Mexico pay for it was crude political theater and the whole thing would go away if Trump won. > As has happened every time I concluded something about Trump-I am wrong. > > Well, it is crude political theater, I got that right. > > But he is going to build his wall and “Mexico”, through a tax on remittances, will pay for it. We will complain and describe obstacles to the idea, but we will be ignored and the wall will get built, paid for by Mexicans in the US. > > The wall won’t be impenetrable, it won’t be continuous, the construction will take a long time, and the remittances won’t pay for the entire thing. But it will get built. And he will be bragging about it in 4 years. And it doesn’t have to limited to remittances. If the GOP passes a corporate tax reform including a ‘border adjusted cash flow tax’, he can say the non-deductibility of the cost of imports from Mexico is effectively Mexico paying for the wall. Even though that non-deductibility would apply to imports from everywhere else too. Even though it’s not money physically collected from foreign countries or nationals. But I took one of his recent statements to actually hint at defining it that way. Anyway it’s definitely not limited to remittances. And I think it’s part of the ‘method to the madness’ of Trump generally if political opponents think they will get the best of him by future ‘expose pieces’ in media explaining how Mexico didn’t _really_ pay for the ‘wall’, or that it’s not _really_ a wall, or it’s not _really_ completely effective. If he builds up border security, there’s some semi-plausible accounting by which he can say the money came from Mexico, and in the context of a generally good economy (not saying that has much to do with Mexico Wall either way, but Trump needs a decent economy to get reelected), it’s a win for him. The change in politics by Trump is winning a national election, though barely, on an explicit platform of cracking down on illegal immigration. A good chunk of voters who approve of that were afraid for their candidates to openly advocate it because they thought it would make those candidates lose. Now that it’s proven non-fatal, the basic policy itself is fairly popular. Illegal immigration, or the belief there shouldn’t be any such thing (just come on in!) is not broadly popular. For a lot of the rest, it’s the old problem of Trump critics tending to take him literally but not seriously where his supporters take him seriously but not literally. Which isn’t to say it’s _sure_ win. If Trump creates disproportionate economic problem with Mexico, or the ‘wall’ goes way over budget, or some external events in Latin America (the big land flow is people crossing Mexico, no longer necessarily from Mexico, besides many coming in other ways) increase the migrant flow despite his efforts, then it could be negative for him. I’m just arguing against the idea that ‘proving’ Mexico didn’t really pay etc. is going to be a killer political app v Trump, it won’t be IMO. ---
**Author:** ![Drunky\_Smurf](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drunky_smurf/32/449_2.png) [@Drunky\_Smurf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drunky_Smurf)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2017, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144/125 "2017-01-26T21:19:51Z")
> [@Darren\_Garrison](#): > > And the wall will represent the same thing–the last gasps of a dying civilization. This. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2017, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144/126 "2017-01-26T21:23:22Z")
Looks like [the plan](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/26/us/politics/mexico-wall-tax-trump.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news) is to charge a 20% tariff on all goods coming here from Mexico. Imports amount to about $300 billion/year. Hard to say what the downside impact will be at this point. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2017, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144/127 "2017-01-26T21:34:22Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > Looks like [the plan](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/26/us/politics/mexico-wall-tax-trump.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news) is to charge a 20% tariff on all goods coming here from Mexico. Imports amount to about $300 billion/year. Hard to say what the downside impact will be at this point. A common response to a tariff is to put a tariff on our exports to them. Mexico accounts for about 15% of US exports, about $235 billion a year. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2017, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144/128 "2017-01-26T21:43:56Z")
> [@scr4](#): > > A common response to a tariff is to put a tariff on our exports to them. Mexico accounts for about 15% of US exports, about $235 billion a year. Which means they could pay for the wall with the money they get from us-win/win all around! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2017, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144/129 "2017-01-26T21:45:41Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > Looks like [the plan](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/26/us/politics/mexico-wall-tax-trump.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news) is to charge a 20% tariff on all goods coming here from Mexico. Imports amount to about $300 billion/year. Hard to say what the downside impact will be at this point. Like I said, reading the various sentences there about ‘Congressional GOP plan’ and ‘eventually’ apply to all imports, what that could turn out meaning is simply the non-deductibility of the cost of imports under a corporate tax plan with a ‘border adjusted cash flow tax’ and a rate of 20%, the GOP Congressional starting proposal, which also makes revenue from exports not subject to corporate tax. That mimics what almost every country with a VAT does: applies it to imports, rebates it on exports. Trump was also recently quoted saying that the ‘border adjustment’ of the GOP plan is ‘too complicated’, but it amounts to essentially the same thing as he’s being quoted saying he’d do here. If so (either way actually) does that mean Mexico is really paying? Like any tax, there’s the question of incidence. For example, do stores pay a sales tax or people buying things at stores? And with either an explicit import tax or the semi-equivalent border adjusted cash flow tax, there’s the additional complication that it should in theory cause the US$ to strengthen against foreign currencies, offsetting some of the tax effect on both buyers and sellers. But would Trump’s political undoing be for some media story or politic opponents to ‘reveal’ Mexico wasn’t ‘really’ paying? Again I don’t think so. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2017, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144/130 "2017-01-26T21:53:52Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > Looks like [the plan](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/26/us/politics/mexico-wall-tax-trump.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news) is to charge a 20% tariff on all goods coming here from Mexico. Imports amount to about $300 billion/year. Hard to say what the downside impact will be at this point. The downside impact is that it will be the American consumers paying for the wall. ---
**Author:** ![wguy123](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wguy123/32/3161_2.png) [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2017, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144/131 "2017-01-26T22:06:59Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > The downside impact is that it will be the American consumers paying for the wall. Paying for it twice: Once when the government builds it and the second time when goods increase in cost due to the tariff. Actually, three times: Illegal immigration will go up due to the economic slowdown in Mexico. ---
**Author:** ![Vicsage](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/e68b1a/32.png) [@Vicsage](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Vicsage)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2017, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144/132 "2017-01-26T22:28:18Z")
They should just rent out space on the wall for ads. A Billboard border. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2017, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144/133 "2017-01-26T22:32:33Z")
> [@Vicsage](#): > > They should just rent out space on the wall for ads. A Billboard border. A chain of bookstores on the border. Any suggestions for a name? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2017, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144/134 "2017-01-26T22:38:43Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > The downside impact is that it will be the American consumers paying for the wall. And possibly violate NAFTA. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2017, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144/135 "2017-01-26T23:30:21Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > The downside impact is that it will be the American consumers paying for the wall. And American manufacturers will suffer when Mexico imposes a retaliatory tariff on imports from the US. ---
**Author:** ![rbroome](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/838e76/32.png) [@rbroome](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rbroome)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2017, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144/136 "2017-01-27T00:10:50Z")
> [@slash2k](#): > > The point is the remittances WON’T pay for the wall. They can’t–the math just doesn’t work. > > Assume for the moment that the costs of the wall don’t go up, the amount of remittances don’t go down, none of the remittances are driven underground, and the levy is 5%, all of which is available for the wall. $24 billion in remittances per year \* 5% = $1.2 billion. That means that it will take at least twenty years of levies to pay for the wall, by which time the wall will already have needed repairs and replacements and maintenance, which aren’t free. > \ > > Further, the amount gained from the levy isn’t entirely available for other purposes, because collecting the levy has costs. Whoever upthread said, “will rely on the wire service companies to collect the tax and forward it to the Government. It won’t take any extra people or detailed investigations”–um, I presume you do know that it takes people working for the government to process these tax receipts, and these people expect to be paid. It’s not just one or two wire service companies–there are nearly 30,000 money service businesses registered with FinCen. Those are just the ones who are registered–God Himself probably couldn’t tell how many informal and unregistered agencies are out there. > > \ Thanks! I appreciate the feedback. You have a better understanding of the mechanisms than I do. I certainly agree that in a normal sense a 5% tax on 24B/yr won’t pay for a 15B project. I had thought the remittences were higher than that. However, I don’t think such a detail will stop Trump and the Reps in congress. The promise of 1.2B/yr is enough for congress to vote in a lot of spending. As usual in Washington, the budget is one thing and the actual expenditures are another. The administration will claim they can build what they want with 1B/yr, the relevant committees will agree and the actual contracts will be signed with unfunded options. Options that will be deemed necessary and part of normal cost growth. The Gov’t buys things that way all the time. There could be plenty of photo-ops built with that funding stream. We aren’t talking about a moonshot here where it actually has to work. Looks are all that is important. As for the collection costs, I had no idea there are so many wire transfer services out there. I know about Western Union and I assumed there were a couple of competitors. Still, I don’t think the actual costs of collecting these funds will be that great. Surely the bulk of the transfers go through a few big services, and all of the services will have to file something. The ones that try to slip by will do so and the actual amount raised will be less than anticipated but remember, what is important is the budget estimate congress uses to pass the legislation. Once they predict a certain amount, the actual $ raised aren’t important. ---
**Author:** ![rbroome](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/838e76/32.png) [@rbroome](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rbroome)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2017, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144/137 "2017-01-27T00:44:43Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > In California, at least, don’t there have to be environmental impact statements done, or is the federal government above all that? Congress took care of that in 2008 (6?). They passed a law exempting a border wall from all environmental, state, and local regulations. That is not going to be a problem. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2017, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144/138 "2017-01-27T02:05:05Z")
Senator Lindsey Graham tweeted that raising taxes on Corona, tequila, and margaritas is… wait for it… “Mucho sad.” This is not a joke. ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2017, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144/139 "2017-01-27T14:15:49Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > And possibly violate NAFTA. NAFTA was implemented by a legislative act, the North American Free Trade Agreement Implementation Act, in the US and thus the US could withdraw by the same. NAFTA was not ratified as a treaty by the US Senate, merely garnering a 61 vote majority in the Senate on the implementation act. That is short of the 67 Senate votes needed to approve a resolution of ratification (the typical means of the Senate granting Advice and Consent per Constitutional requirements). So if Trump can get the Republicans in Congress to pass a bill modifying NAFTA he could sign it. Of course Mexico and/or Canada could do the same from their ends. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2017, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144/140 "2017-01-27T19:36:35Z")
Come on, he’s going to fianance this the same way he did all his other construction projects. Hire Mexican contractors to build the wall and then stiff them on the payment. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anybody-understand-how-mexico-will-pay-for-the-wall/778144.md?page=6)