# Does anyone believe Bush wont get re-elected? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 8, 2004, 6:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867 "2004-08-08T06:50:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2004, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867/21 "2004-08-08T20:33:31Z")
Kimstu, I always thought SDMB was about ‘fighting ignorance’. Its obvious the OP is, well, in need of some fighting (assuming he’s sincere). He’s also fairly new to SDMB by the fact he’s a guest (again, assuming). ALmost every response was ridiculing or sarcastic (as I said, dancing around the rules) instead of either ignoring the quesiton if it offends you or simply answering and maybe explaining WHY you think there are plenty of folks who think Bush won’t get elected. Get it? -XT ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2004, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867/22 "2004-08-08T21:06:38Z")
Heck, I’m not voting for Kerry[sup]\*[/sup] and I’ll bet Bush will lose. As der tag approaches, there will be more and more noise about history repeating itself and Bush being a one-termer, like his dad. Since Americans are suckers for historical patterns, Bush43 is likely going down, just for the symmetry of it. [sup]\*[/sup]Being Canadian, and all. My e-mail address is in my profile, by the way. ---
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2004, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867/23 "2004-08-08T21:16:42Z")
> [@Got Taste?](#): > > Educate yourself This phrase seems to be a recurring one with guests here. It means “waste tons of time reading kooky websites in the hope that you may be as gullible as me”. No thanks. ---
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2004, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867/24 "2004-08-08T21:21:16Z")
BTW I’ve a horrible feeling he _will_ win. But not for the reasons obliquely hinted at in the OP. ---
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2004, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867/25 "2004-08-08T21:49:38Z")
I think Bush will probably win (although I personally will be voting for Kerry), because even though the polls are close, Bush has an advantage if you look at the electoral votes (taking “undecided” states out of the picture.) So Kerry would have to win most of the undecideds to win the election, which, while not impossible, gives him a tougher hill to climb. I my opinion, Bush’s victory will probably not be due to stupid conspiracy theories. (I am allowed to call theories stupid, right?) ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2004, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867/26 "2004-08-08T22:13:08Z")
> [@Got Taste?](#): > > Does anyone seriously believe this? Answered for your edification: Yes, **Got Taste** , scores of millions of Americans genuinely (genuinely is akin to seriously I suppose) believe that Bush will be defeated by Kerry. > [@Got Taste?](#): > > With either Osama Bin Laden being found and/or another attack on the US leading up to the election, how can Bush lose? I don’t think that even the capture of UbL is enough at this point to cause the tide against Bush to ebb. It’s not a tide for Kerry so much as it is a tide against Bush. Too many Americans realize how the Bush Admin is playing political monkey games with our national security and foreign policy. Too many americans realize how many persons of bad character the Bush Admin has put into sensitive positions. The Bush Admin has fucked us as nation (and not in a good way). While one can fool some of the people all of the time (these are who GWB said he was going to focus on\*), you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. Enough people have realized that Lady Liberty’s nether regions haven’t even been greased while the Bush Admin’s been banging her. I think that you may be right that a sufficiently tragic event, like another 9-11 or another Pearl Harbor might be enough to disorient the electorate and produce a Bush victory. Many (not my humble self) would point to the recent Spanish election as an example of how an electorate can be so disoriented by such a horrific and tragic event as to vote for the greater of two evils. If they are right, then another large scale terrorist attack may be enough to propel GWB et al back into office and insure easy, fruitful times al Qaeda recruiters and their ilk. > [@Got Taste?](#): > > He cant. Why not? You do realize that the Bush Admin’s a far piece from traditional American Conservatism don’t you? - No kidding, he really said this. At least according to The Weekly Standard in their editorial defending the oxymoronic ‘big-government-conservatism’ foisted on the nation by this presidential admin. ---
**Author:** ![JonScribe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/3be4f8/32.png) [@JonScribe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JonScribe)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2004, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867/27 "2004-08-09T00:42:00Z")
> [@tim314](#): > > … Bush has an advantage if you look at the electoral votes (taking “undecided” states out of the picture.) … Not according to this [LA Times](http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage.htmlstory) site. (Yes, you have to register, but it’s fun playing with the map.) Right now, not counting states (many of them battleground states) where the gap between the candidates is less than the margin of error, Kerry is leading in “safe” states 165-147. Try out a few plausible scenarios and you’ll see Kerry wouldn’t even have to take Florida to win. And right now, he trails Bush by only one point in Florida. Is it any wonder Condi, Colin and Rummy are updating their resumes? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2004, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867/28 "2004-08-09T00:59:07Z")
> [@tim314](#): > > I think Bush will probably win (although I personally will be voting for Kerry), because even though the polls are close, Bush has an advantage if you look at the electoral votes (taking “undecided” states out of the picture.) According to this site – [http://www.electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com) – which tracks the states by the latest polls and is updated every time a new poll in a given state comes in, Kerry now leads Bush by 307 electoral votes to 231. I have been monitoring this site for several weeks and have seen the figures change several times (a week ago Florida was classed as “Barely Bush” and now it’s classed as “Weak Kerry”), but always the total count favored Kerry. You can put your mouse pointer on any state and a box will pop up showing the date, source and results of the latest poll in that state. ---
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2004, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867/29 "2004-08-09T02:12:11Z")
I think that [this](http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1177835/posts) is the AP story I saw that said Bush is ahead. > [@](#): > > Kerry has 14 states and the District of Columbia in his column for 193 electoral votes. Bush has 25 states for 217 votes, according to an Associated Press analysis of state polls as well as interviews with strategists across the country. Do you ( **JonScribe** and **BrainGlutton** ) think it’s inaccurate? (I personally have no idea whether the AP, the LA Times, or [www.electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com) is more likely to be accurate about something like this). ---
**Author:** ![JonScribe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/3be4f8/32.png) [@JonScribe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JonScribe)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2004, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867/30 "2004-08-09T02:18:47Z")
Listen, we’re talking polls here. And there are discrepancies among polls. That’s why I like the L.A. Time’s site, because it considers for the margin of error in awarding states to Kerry or Bush based on current polls. Also, the source you site may not be inaccurate, but it is more than two weeks old. The only polls that will count will be those we go to on Nov. 2, but for the purposes of this “debate,” as to whether anyone can imagine Bush losing, the current polls allow me to comfortably believe that yes, yes, he can lose. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2004, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867/31 "2004-08-09T02:50:56Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Kimstu, I always thought SDMB was about ‘fighting ignorance’. Its obvious the OP is, well, in need of some fighting (assuming he’s sincere). He’s also fairly new to SDMB by the fact he’s a guest (again, assuming). ALmost every response was ridiculing or sarcastic (as I said, dancing around the rules) instead of either ignoring the quesiton if it offends you or simply answering and maybe explaining WHY you think there are plenty of folks who think Bush won’t get elected. Get it? > > -XT It would seem your assumptions may be incorrect. Or maybe the time zones have caused him to disappear (since he cited two UK sites). ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_One](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/45deac/32.png) [@Evil\_One](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_One)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2004, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867/32 "2004-08-09T03:49:19Z")
Bush will win with about 52 percent of the popular vote. “How do you know, Evil One?” It’s an educated guess based on the polarization of the electorate and the current climate. There are quite a few Bush supporters going about their daily lives without bashing Kerry at the top of their lungs. But come election day, they’ll head to the polls. Kerry is doing an excellent job being the “anti-Bush”…but I don’t think it’s enough to be “not that guy”. So far, Kerry hasn’t shown me anything that would make me think people will make an active choice to vote for him. The only ones making noise are the party hacks with a vested interest and those who are rabidly anti-Bush. Plus, there is plenty of “John Kerry war protester at large” fodder out there. If I were the Republicans, I would sit quietly while he does silly things like “report for duty” at the convention…and then bring out the guns about mid-October. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2004, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867/33 "2004-08-09T04:24:41Z")
> [@Evil One](#): > > There are quite a few Bush supporters going about their daily lives without bashing Kerry at the top of their lungs. But come election day, they’ll head to the polls. The “silent majority,” eh? No, I think they’ll stay home. That’s the decisive factor in this election: Bush has done too much to alienate his conservative base. Fiscal conservatives don’t like his deficits; isolationist conservatives don’t like the war; nativist conservatives don’t like his immigration policies; libertarian conservatives don’t like the USA PATRIOT Act, DHS, etc., etc.; and even religious conservatives are disappointed at how little Bush has actually delivered for them – it’s no harder to get an abortion now than it was in 2000, school prayer is no closer to being revived, and some of that “faith-based initiatives” money is going to **mosques!** A lot of conservatives of various kinds, if they can’t bring themselves to vote for Kerry, probably won’t vote at all. Or they’ll listen to Pat Buchanan, and vote for Ralph Nader! > [@Evil One](#): > > Plus, there is plenty of “John Kerry war protester at large” fodder out there. Under the circumstances – i.e., Kerry being both a war hero **and** an anti-war hero – I expect that will pick him up a lot more votes than it loses him. That is, **nobody** who was against the Vietnam war back then is going to vote against Kerry now because of his military record, because his later anti-war actions outweigh that; and **some** people who were for the war back then will not vote against Kerry because of his war-protest record, because his earlier military record outweighs that. It’s a win-win situation. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2004, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867/34 "2004-08-09T04:30:53Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > According to this site – [http://www.electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com) – which tracks the states by the latest polls and is updated every time a new poll in a given state comes in, Kerry now leads Bush by 307 electoral votes to 231. I have been monitoring this site for several weeks and have seen the figures change several times (a week ago Florida was classed as “Barely Bush” and now it’s classed as “Weak Kerry”), but always the total count favored Kerry. You can put your mouse pointer on any state and a box will pop up showing the date, source and results of the latest poll in that state. Awesome link! Thanks! ---
**Author:** ![Starving\_Artist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Starving\_Artist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Starving_Artist)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2004, 5:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867/35 "2004-08-09T05:28:48Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > To specifically answer the OP, who is apparently just trying to stir the shit pot: > > Yes, according to the most recent poll results I saw, something like 52% of Americans seriously believe that Georgie boy is an incompetant asshole who can be defeated in '04. Sorry, no cite. I would really like to see that poll. Where, oh, where is the question posed and answered that “Georgie boy is an incompetant[sic] asshole who can be defeated in '04”? Sounds like a little bit of poster imbellishment there, if you ask me (or even if you don’t 😃 ). Remember, we’re _fighting_ ignorance here, not _propagating_ it! ---
**Author:** ![Mockingbird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c68b51/32.png) [@Mockingbird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mockingbird)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2004, 6:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867/36 "2004-08-09T06:32:32Z")
As long as George is consistently using his mouth as a shoe, I think he’ll talk his way out of being reelected. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2004, 7:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867/37 "2004-08-09T07:29:48Z")
I believe it’s _possible_ for Bush to lose. I think it’ll depend on who makes fewer political mistakes up to November - and both sides are making, or have made, disturbing numbers of them, so we’ll see what happens… ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_One](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/45deac/32.png) [@Evil\_One](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_One)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2004, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867/38 "2004-08-09T12:21:47Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > A lot of conservatives of various kinds, if they can’t bring themselves to vote for Kerry, probably won’t vote at all. > > I don’t think so. Any politically aware conservative is going to hold his nose and vote for Bush over Kerry. That’s because he or she knows that not voting will increase the chances of Kerry being elected. I don’t agree with everything GWB has done…but I’d rather have him than Kerry. > [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Under the circumstances – i.e., Kerry being both a war hero **and** an anti-war hero – I expect that will pick him up a lot more votes than it loses him. That is, **nobody** who was against the Vietnam war back then is going to vote against Kerry now because of his military record, because his later anti-war actions outweigh that; and **some** people who were for the war back then will not vote against Kerry because of his war-protest record, because his earlier military record outweighs that. It’s a win-win situation. Or perhaps it’s lose-lose. Conservatives are rolling their eyes at Kerry basing an entire political campaign on four months of service nearly 30 years ago. If the Democrats didn’t have a guilty conscience about thier record on defense, he wouldn’t have to. “Pay no attention to that liberal behind the curtain! I am the great and powerful war hero!” You didn’t hear John McCain banging that drum when he was running…and his Vietnam “hero” resume is a lot longer than Kerrys. Plus, the “we committed atrocities” Senate testimony is leaving a bad taste in a lot of mouths. From the left it gets a little muddier. Will they overlook the fact that he served and embrace his protesting as the “real” John Kerry? Perhaps. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2004, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867/39 "2004-08-09T12:42:42Z")
> [@Starving Artist](#): > > I would really like to see that poll. Where, oh, where is the question posed and answered that “Georgie boy is an incompetant[sic] asshole who can be defeated in '04”? …Remember, we’re _fighting_ ignorance here, not _propagating_ it! [Ignorance Fighting R Us:](http://slate.msn.com/id/2104745/) > [@](#): > > In a CBS poll before the convention, the percentage of voters who were uneasy about Kerry’s ability to handle an international crisis was 19 points higher than the percentage who were confident in his ability to handle such a crisis. After the convention, that margin of unease has shrunk to 11 points. Bush’s negative margin on the same question is 12 points. > … > In a CNN poll before the convention, voters agreed by a 12-point margin that Kerry had “the personality and leadership qualities a president should have.” After the convention, the margin is 20—eight points higher than the margin for Bush on the same question. Before the convention, by a 51-43 margin, voters trusted Bush rather than Kerry “to handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief of the military.” Now the candidates are even. Before the convention, more voters trusted Bush than Kerry “to protect U.S. citizens from future acts of terrorism.” Now more voters trust Kerry than trust Bush. > … > Look at the data going back to February. Over that period, Bush’s top score in the ABC trial heat is 48. In the CBS and ARG polls, it’s 46. During that time, Newsweek has repeatedly asked respondents, “Would you like to see George W. Bush re-elected to another term as president, or not?” The percentage saying Bush deserves re-election hasn’t risen above 46. The percentage saying he doesn’t deserve re-election hasn’t fallen below 50. During the same period, Zogby surveys have repeatedly asked voters, “Do you think George W. Bush deserves to be re-elected as president of the United States, or is it time for someone new?” The percentage saying Bush deserves to be re-elected hasn’t risen above 45. The percentage saying it’s time for someone new hasn’t fallen below 51. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2004, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867/40 "2004-08-09T13:23:00Z")
Speaking as a Republican who’s going to vote, unenthusiastically, for Bush this November: I have no idea who’s going to win. I’ve believed for over two years that the coming election is going to be as close and as nerve-racking as the last one. Almost all the red states from 2000 will stay red, almost all the blue states will stay blue, and a handful of key states (yes, including Florida again) will make all the difference. At this point, anyone who’s sure who’s going to win is out of his mind! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-anyone-believe-bush-wont-get-re-elected/258867.md?page=3)