# Does Beto O'Rourke have a chance to oust Ted Cruz? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 2, 2018, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987 "2018-02-02T00:12:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/181 "2018-04-04T15:46:59Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > CA and NY. No chance either of those will go red in the foreseeable future. California happily elected Republicans when they weren’t all tools of the Christian extremists. They’d elect one again. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/182 "2018-04-04T15:56:05Z")
It’s not the Christian extremists who are in control. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/183 "2018-04-04T16:13:08Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > California happily elected Republicans when they weren’t all tools of the Christian extremists. They’d elect one again. For what? President - 30 years ago (Bush 41) Senator - 32 years ago (Pete Wilson) Governor - 12 years ago (Ahnult, who won because he was a celebrity, not because he was a Republican) and 24 years ago (Pete Wilson) Not exactly recent history. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/184 "2018-04-04T17:39:05Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > For what? > > President - 30 years ago (Bush 41) > Senator - 32 years ago (Pete Wilson) > Governor - 12 years ago (Ahnult, who won because he was a celebrity, not because he was a Republican) and 24 years ago (Pete Wilson) > > Not exactly recent history. I consider that all recent history, but then again I’m getting old ;). ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/185 "2018-04-04T18:02:44Z")
I can’t even really count Arnold. He won because of celebrity but also because of the anger over the rolling blackouts caused by Enron and voters recalled Democrat Gray Davis our of anger, not because of misconduct in office. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Miskatonic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr.miskatonic/32/310_2.png) [@Mr.Miskatonic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Miskatonic)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/186 "2018-04-04T21:23:34Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > I can’t even really count Arnold. He won because of celebrity but also because of the anger over the rolling blackouts caused by Enron and voters recalled Democrat Gray Davis our of anger, not because of misconduct in office. At the risk of sidetracking: Although many blame the Enron situation the straw that broke the camel’s back was thatDavis spent the election poo-pooing Bill Simon’s constant claims that the CA budget was going to have some serious shortfalls. Simon was a bit of a nutter and not a good candidate, having several scandals on his record\*. But once the election was finished Davis just right out and confirmed that there were budget shortfalls and that some taxes and fees would need to rise. The most irksome being the vehicle registration fee, which went up an alarm amount (500% IIRC). This is what ticked off the citizens of CA the most. - - There were also accusations that Davis had manipulated the GOP primary so that stronger, less scandalous and ‘wacky’ candidates would lose to Simon. Riordan would likely have crushed Davis had they gone to the gubernatorial election. Davis put out ads attacking Riordan for being soft on certain GOP issues like abortion during the primaries. It worked, but once it became clear what was done people got angry. You can argue that the GOP was dumb for being manipulated that way (and you’d have a point) but it also made Democrats angry as well - they felt that an Urban Moderate Republican might have been a good choice had he a chance. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/187 "2018-04-04T22:22:18Z")
[Constituent confronts the Albertan](https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/yes-no-question-watch-texas-woman-demand-ted-cruz-take-dna-test-prove-youre-human/): _“My question is: Will you pledge to submit to a DNA test, to prove that you’re human?” she asked._ Sad-clown amusing. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2018, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/188 "2018-04-11T02:38:16Z")
Campaign issue? [Beto O’Rourke: I Would Vote to Impeach Trump](https://www.thedailybeast.com/beto-orourke-i-would-vote-to-impeach-trump) ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2018, 6:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/189 "2018-04-11T06:11:09Z")
Then he should drop out of the race. He’s running for Senate and the Senate doesn’t vote to impeach. The House of Representatives votes to impeach and the Senate would try the president on the articles of impeachment with the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court presiding. I’d love to see Cruz voted out, but this is a silly mistake, unless the article linked is completely wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2018, 6:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/190 "2018-04-11T06:19:37Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Campaign issue? > > [Beto O’Rourke: I Would Vote to Impeach Trump](https://www.thedailybeast.com/beto-orourke-i-would-vote-to-impeach-trump) As much as I would enjoy seeing an anti-Trump wave in 2018 and as much as I relish the idea of Trump losing in 2020, this type of stupidity on the part of Democrats is _exactly_ why I’m more certain with each passing day that DJT will end his second term as POTUS on 01/20/25. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2018, 11:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/191 "2018-04-11T11:40:50Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > Then he should drop out of the race. He’s running for Senate and the Senate doesn’t vote to impeach. I got an Internet cookie here that says you didn’t read the article; if you had, you would have been reminded that O’Rourke is currently a representative. You would also have realized that he was answering a specific question about whether he’s already seen enough evidence that he would support a hypothetical impeachment. Now, sure, it can be twisted by operatives to fool the ignorant. But in this case, you didn’t even read the article. Let’s not do the operatives’ work for them! ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2018, 11:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/192 "2018-04-11T11:47:26Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Campaign issue? > > [Beto O’Rourke: I Would Vote to Impeach Trump](https://www.thedailybeast.com/beto-orourke-i-would-vote-to-impeach-trump) From the article: > [@](#): > > … > Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) was asked by host Chad Hasty of KFYO-AM in Lubbock whether he has seen enough evidence thus far to support a hypothetical impeachment of the president. > > O’Rourke initially responded: “The answer is yes.” Emphasis added. Key word: “hypothetical” ETA: Ninja’d (sort of). ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2018, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/193 "2018-04-11T19:26:35Z")
> [@dogecoindaryl](#): > > Ted skirted under the radar for many years. He was very much magnified during the 2016 run and now everyone has caught up to his ugly side. As Al Franken says, “Ted Cruz is the guy who microwaves fish at your office.” Heh. Franken also said, “'I like Ted Cruz probably more than my colleagues like Ted Cruz. And I hate Ted Cruz.” > [@dalej42](#): > > Then he should drop out of the race. He’s running for Senate and the Senate doesn’t vote to impeach. The House of Representatives votes to impeach and the Senate would try the president on the articles of impeachment with the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court presiding… A further nitpick: it’s “Chief Justice of the United States.” See 28 U.S.C. 1. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2018, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/194 "2018-04-11T21:07:44Z")
Beto O’Rourke = Wendy Davis with a penis but without pink sneakers. That is, liberals all over America fell in love with Wendy and sent her money, convinced Texas was ripe for the taking. It wasnt. She lost by 20 points. Beto will lose big too. And in the process, he’ll spend a fortune that could have helped Democrats with a real chance of winning. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2018, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/195 "2018-04-11T21:31:36Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > Beto O’Rourke = Wendy Davis with a penis but without pink sneakers. > > That is, liberals all over America fell in love with Wendy and sent her money, convinced Texas was ripe for the taking. It wasnt. She lost by 20 points. > > Beto will lose big too. And in the process, he’ll spend a fortune that could have helped Democrats with a real chance of winning. You already said that. > [@astorian](#): > > Short answer: No. Texas Monthly ALWAYS puts Democratic contenders on the cover and asserts that THIS is the year Texas turns blue. > > Unless Ted Cruz has an underage girlfriend somewhere (and Trump would have exposed that if there were even RUMORS), he’ll win handily. But if the Dems want to waste a fortune as they did on Wendy Davis, that’s their affair. See you in a couple months I guess. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2018, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/196 "2018-04-11T21:46:28Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > You already said that. > > See you in a couple months I guess. As long as this thread exists, someone has to keep raining on the parade. ---
**Author:** ![RickG](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rickg/32/5174_2.png) [@RickG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickG)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2018, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/197 "2018-04-11T22:38:29Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > Beto O’Rourke = Wendy Davis with a penis but without pink sneakers. > > That is, liberals all over America fell in love with Wendy and sent her money, convinced Texas was ripe for the taking. It wasnt. She lost by 20 points. > > Beto will lose big too. And in the process, he’ll spend a fortune that could have helped Democrats with a real chance of winning. This seems like an oversimplification. Wendy Davis lost big, to be sure, but 2014 was a pretty massive wave year for the GOP. Cruz won in 2012 ~56%-40% (with a relatively large 3% going to 3rd party candidates). Texas has a Cook PVI of R+8, but recent special elections have had Democrats outperforming by enough to overcome that kind of intrinsic deficit–Alabama is R+14, for example. You could argue that that was very specific to the unique problems of Roy Moore, but PA-18 was R+11 and the Republican in that race wasn’t alleged to be a child molester. Candidates do matter. I’ve heard O’Rourke interviewed, and he seems likable, which has never been a word I’ve heard used to describe Ted Cruz. It’s a heavy lift, but I don’t think O’Rourke will necessarily lose. If he does, I doubt it will be nearly as bad a loss as Davis had in 2014, and, in fact, will be much closer even than the Senate race in 2012. A big enough wave, with turnout in the big cities being higher and turnout in Republican strongholds being lower, could swamp Cruz. Not likely, but possible. Definitely a high enough possibility to be worth putting up a serious challenge. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2018, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/198 "2018-04-12T02:32:17Z")
I’d bet on Cruz winning … but not with any confidence and “handily”? No way. Just by the math assuming that Cruz is as strong of a candidate as he was in 2012 and that O’Rourke is no stronger a candidate than was Davis. As above he won by 16 in a year when the national popular vote went D+1 for the house. IF special elections in aggregate are as predictive as many claim their averaging swings of 17 would predict Cruz of 2012 vDavis 2012 and not O’Rourke to be damn close. Maybe though they aren’t. The Generic Congressional tracker is more like 7 to 8. But then of course is there is the fact that Cruz 2018 is very damaged goods compared to the 2012 version after the last election, even more than his baseline unlikeablity. His speech at the GOP convention won him no everlasting love from true Trump supporters, and it is hard to win a midterm without even them. And yeah O’Rourke seems to be a stronger candidate than Davis was. So splitting the difference between what the special elections aggregate would predict and what the tracker would to a D+12 might be enough with a Cruz weaker than in '12 and a stronger competitor. I’m guessing this will be a late night election. I’m also guessing that any “fortune” spent by Ds will be _more_ than matched by Rs. They cannot even remotely risk losing this seat that in any other time should be a gimme. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2018, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/199 "2018-04-18T17:59:08Z")
[4-18-18 Quinnipiac poll](https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2536). Cruz 47, O’Rourke 44, Net Cruz +3. We might have a race on our hands here. I’ll save someone some time… blah, blah, pink shoes, blah, blah waste of money, blah. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2018, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/200 "2018-04-18T18:11:41Z")
Based on the initial poll I see from January, the delta looks like Cruz -10 / Beto +1. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=11)