# Does Beto O'Rourke have a chance to oust Ted Cruz? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 2, 2018, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987 "2018-02-02T00:12:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/221 "2018-04-19T13:41:49Z")
Way back in 2016 or earlier, when discussing Republican efforts to woo Hispanic voters, I said that an Irish Catholic would have a lot more appeal to most Hispanic voters than a Cuban Baptist. I still think that’s true, but we’re going to see an empirical test of it soon. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/222 "2018-04-19T13:48:37Z")
Yeah, that’s an excellent point because race is not everything. Religion matters a lot too, as well as where you grew up. O’Rourke is Irish, but he also grew up in the most Hispanic part of Texas, whereas Cruz spent a lot of time in Canada and whiter parts of Texas. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/223 "2018-04-19T14:32:44Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Yeah, that’s an excellent point because race is not everything. Religion matters a lot too, as well as where you grew up. O’Rourke is Irish, but he also grew up in the most Hispanic part of Texas, whereas Cruz spent a lot of time in Canada and whiter parts of Texas. And held joint Canadian citizenship (not to his liking) until rather recently. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/224 "2018-04-19T17:21:09Z")
Ted Cruz wrote a brief [hagiography of Donald Trump](http://time.com/collection/most-influential-people-2018/5217621/donald-trump-2) for Time Magazine where he praises Trump. The same Trump who accused Cruz’s father of [being involved in the Kennedy assassination](https://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/trump-ted-cruz-jfk-assassination-226020) and who [called Cruz’s wife ugly](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/712850174838771712?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fnews%2Fthe-fix%2Fwp%2F2016%2F09%2F23%2F9-truly-awful-things-that-were-said-between-ted-cruz-and-the-man-hell-now-support-donald-trump%2F&tfw_creator=aaronblake&tfw_site=WashingtonPost). Regardless of how Texans feel about Trump or Cruz, I have to imagine that the manly men of Texas aren’t proud of their senator sniveling before the man who insulted his family. A campaign ad portraying Cruz as a sniveling weasel willing to kneel down before the guy who insulted his wife would probably be effective. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/225 "2018-04-19T18:55:19Z")
> [@](#): > > Ted Cruz wrote a brief hagiography of Donald Trump for Time Magazine where he praises Trump. The same Trump who accused Cruz’s father of being involved in the Kennedy assassination and who called Cruz’s wife ugly. > > Regardless of how Texans feel about Trump or Cruz, I have to imagine that the manly men of Texas aren’t proud of their senator sniveling before the man who insulted his family. It’s called being in a political party. Like defensive backs in American football, the job requires that politicians often have short memories for how the last play went. Or, how many diatribes against Robert Byrd, a former KKK ‘Exalted Cyclops’, did Democrat politicians write when Byrd was Senate Majority Leader? It’s just business. My question is, how was Wendy Davis, AKA “Abortion Barbie,” polling during her Texas Governor’s bid seven months out? I seem to also recall media at the time making her the mascot for a Blue wave that was going to sweep over Texas. And she ended up losing by nearly 20 points. We’ll see what happens with Robert O’Rourke’s campaign. **John T** ’s 5%-10 chance of victory seems about right. Or, I think Cruz will be still in his seat after Trump gets tossed from his. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/226 "2018-04-19T18:57:31Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > IOr, how many diatribes against Robert Byrd, a former KKK ‘Exalted Cyclops’, did Democrat politicians write when Byrd was Senate Majority Leader? Byrd explicitly renounced and apologized for his KKK involvement, IIRC. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/227 "2018-04-19T19:12:48Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Byrd explicitly renounced and apologized for his KKK involvement, IIRC. Oh well, that makes it all better. He apologized. Just a misunderstanding, being such a virulent racist that you started your own KKK chapter. Did he “take full responsibility” too? Again, what politicians say and do in the course of their job is just business. The voters must not have had a problem with it, or he’d be gone. If the voters in TX have a problem with Cruz, he’ll be gone too, and Cruz’s reaction or lack thereof to Trump’s hilariously slanderous comments about Cruz’s wife and father will have very little to do with it. OTOH, going back to Byrd, if he were to have left his seat, even if it were going to be replaced by another Dem, it would’ve caused WV to lose the benefits of his tenure, committee chairs, knowing where the bodies are buried, etc… Not that keeping a person in power long after they’ve proven they were wholly unsuitable for the job is the exclusive province of one political party, right Senator Thurmond? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/228 "2018-04-19T19:17:34Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Byrd explicitly renounced and apologized for his KKK involvement, IIRC. The real issue with Gray Ghost’s statement is that it’s not really very closely related to the point he was trying to make. Byrd’s apology doesn’t really hold much weight, IMO, given that he never learned anything from it. Byrd was decades late to every civil rights fight, especially gay rights. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/229 "2018-04-19T19:29:43Z")
I’m going to declare the Byrd thing a distraction. It’s useful for a few posts but it would be harmful to become a long part of this thread. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/230 "2018-04-19T20:20:13Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > … **John T** ’s 5%-10 chance of victory seems about right. … Which were similar to how the CFSG was being rated ahead of the election. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/231 "2018-04-19T20:42:31Z")
Posting this mostly because I like the title… [Ted Cruz’s embarrassing ode to Donald Trump is why people hate politicians](https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/19/politics/ted-cruz-donald-trump-time-magazine/index.html) > [@](#): > > People already believe that politicians will say and do anything to get (or stay) elected. That they have no backbones. That all they care about is winning. > This Cruz love letter to Trump will – and should – only reinforce that view. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/232 "2018-04-19T20:48:27Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > Which were similar to how the CFSG was being rated ahead of the election. China Fire and Security Group? Community Financial Services Group is the first link that pops up when I google that acronym. I confess to being at a loss. Leaving aside the honorable gentleman from West Virginia, [I found the polling data for Wendy Davis that I was looking for.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_gubernatorial_election,_2014) Quinnipiac isn’t cited as having taking a poll for this contest, but Emerson College did, in the first week of March 2014. They had Abbott ahead 49.3 to 41.8, with 9 undecided, and 494 people polled. Most polls around that period had Abbott ahead by pretty close to his eventual margin. PPP had Abbott +14, TTU had Abbott +29, the Texas Tribune had Abbott anywhere from +10-12 around that point in the campaign. CBS did especially well throughout that campaign. Then again, they were polling 5-10x the numbers the other polls were using. I’m surprised the Quinnipiac is is the only poll I can find on the Senate race so far. Though looking at [the last Senate race in Texas, 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_2014), it looks like the second week of April is when the first polls come out. In that race, Cornyn ended up winning by 27 points, and the first polls PPP, Texas Tribune, CBS, had Cornyn up by 17, 11 (with a giant chunk of Undecided), and 17 respectively. When [Cruz beat Sadler in 2012](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_2012) by 16, the first polls had Cruz up +10 for both. Accordingly, I expect polling for this race to initially undersample voting for the Republican candidate. Polls later on in the prior campaigns did get closer to the eventual result, and for the Governor’s race, CBS did really well. I’m interested to see what their poll looks like for this Senate race. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/233 "2018-04-19T20:54:08Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > China Fire and Security Group? Community Financial Services Group is the first link that pops up when I google that acronym. I confess to being at a loss. Cheeto-Faced S(omething) G(uy) ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/234 "2018-04-19T20:58:57Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > It’s called being in a political party. Like defensive backs in American football, the job requires that politicians often have short memories for how the last play went. . The job does not require that. At all. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/235 "2018-04-19T21:03:52Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > Cheeto-Faced S(omething) G(uy) Shit gibbon? ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/236 "2018-04-19T21:04:44Z")
shit gibbon. Cheeto faced shit gibbon. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/237 "2018-04-19T21:13:19Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > It’ > > My question is, how was Wendy Davis, AKA “Abortion Barbie,” polling during her Texas Governor’s bid seven months out? I seem to also recall media at the time making her the mascot for a Blue wave that was going to sweep over Texas. And she ended up losing by nearly 20 points… In the April and May polling she was down by 11-12%. Do you think that makes some kind of point? > **[2014 Texas Governor - Abbott vs. Davis | RealClearPolling](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/governor/general/2014/texas/abbott-vs-davis)** > > 2014 Texas Governor - Abbott vs. Davis | RealClearPolling ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/238 "2018-04-19T21:40:37Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > In the April and May polling she was down by 11-12%. Do you think that makes some kind of point? > > [2014 Texas Governor - Abbott vs. Davis | RealClearPolling](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/tx/texas_governor_abbott_vs_davis-3596.html#polls) Yes, that most of these polls understate the Republican candidate’s support. See my post at 3:48 today upthread. Which doesn’t stop a delighted media from proclaiming that This Election Will Be The One That Turns Texas Blue! You guys can think that O’Rourke has a chance. I don’t see it. Not with [gems like](https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/983481280573538305), > [@](#): > > “There is no reason AR-15s—weapons of war designed for the sole purpose of taking lives—should be sold to civilians to be used in our schools, in our churches, in our concerts, in public life in this country.” Per a comment to that Tweet, he knows he’s running for a political office broader than just Austin, right? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/239 "2018-04-19T22:24:45Z")
The fact remains that Davis was never remotely this close in the polls so your comparison is pretty lame. Seems more like a “liberal media” rant than anything else. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2018, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/240 "2018-04-20T01:20:56Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > The fact remains that Davis was never remotely this close in the polls so your comparison is pretty lame. Seems more like a “liberal media” rant than anything else. “Lame,” LOL. I cited the last three statewide polls. All show that the initial polls understated the Republican candidate’s eventual margin of victory by about 2-2.5x. Now, it’s true that a bunch of people have moved to Texas in the last 5-10 years, usually from the Coasts and NE, and they usually brought their voting habits along with them. It’s also true that someone or something is plowing a galactic amount of money into ‘contested’ political races across the country this season, and accordingly, O’Rourke has raised about 2x the money Cruz has. It’s also true that O’Rourke is light years more telegenic than Cruz. Unfortunately, that matters. I like Cruz, and even I admit he’s kinda creepy from time to time. On the flip side, ever since Ann Richards, most Texas politicians have been clever enough to not go full gun ban—and O’Rourke is[proud as can be about his F grade from the NRA](https://twitter.com/betoorourke/status/967881688817729542?lang=en), along with the Tweet about his desire to ban all AR-15s that I cited above. Guess we’ll find out if Texas is as Blue as many of you would like to think. I do think this election will be closer than any of the three I cited. Call it Cruz +8 when it’s all said and done. That would fit within the 2-2.5x early poll margin I noted. As I said above, I’d like to see some more polls, and I’d really like to see CBS’s. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=13)