# Does Beto O'Rourke have a chance to oust Ted Cruz? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 2, 2018, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987 "2018-02-02T00:12:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 15
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2018, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/281 "2018-06-26T01:33:49Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > [Cruz lead shrinks to +5 in new University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll.](http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/393929-poll-cruz-leads-beto-orourke-by-5-points) This is a personal pet peeve of mine, but one poll does not tell us the state of the race. Cruz’s lead has not shrunk to five points. If this was the only recent poll maybe we could say that it is our best guess, but this wasn’t even the only poll released today. [CBS/YouGov poll.](https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByVu4fDHYJgVQlR4eDZDQlFnRFYtTHBmemFpUDVvS081Skc4/view) Of 1025 registered voters we have Cruz 44 O’Rourke 36 (Cruz +8). Of 821 likely voters we have Cruz 50 O’Rourke 40 (Cruz +10). The LV result includes only 7% not sure with 3% someone else which is not enough undecided voters to win even if Beto gets them all. Blah blah blah margin of error one poll etc. Together we have two polls today. One has bad news and the other has very bad news. I think we’re still in O’Rourke needs a game changer territory. There’s still a non-zero chance that Ted peels his face off and reveals his true reptilian nature and then eats a child separated from his or her parents at the border. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2018, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/282 "2018-07-25T21:41:46Z")
[Cruz proposes five debates with Beto O’Rourke.](https://www.texastribune.org/2018/07/25/ted-cruz-proposes-five-debates-beto-orourke-texas/amp/?__twitter_impression=true) Does an incumbent with a comfortable lead ask for debates? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2018, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/283 "2018-07-26T00:42:13Z")
It does make one wonder if here are some pocketed internal polls … ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2018, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/284 "2018-07-26T00:48:01Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > [Cruz proposes five debates with Beto O’Rourke.](https://www.texastribune.org/2018/07/25/ted-cruz-proposes-five-debates-beto-orourke-texas/amp/?__twitter_impression=true) > > Does an incumbent with a comfortable lead ask for debates? Wasn’t Cruz a debate champion at some point in undergrad? He might feel that working from a personal strength outweighs giving O’Rourke exposure, plus he may feel that not wanting to debate will make it look like he’s got something to hide. Realclearpolitics poll average shows Cruz +8.4. The CBS poll, which I found predictive in past Texas Senate contests, has the last one with Cruz +10. (EDIT: As **Lance Turbo** already noted above, with more detail.) My guess of Cruz +8 is right in the middle. Still, lots can happen between now and November. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2018, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/285 "2018-07-28T20:26:12Z")
Someone on Twitter: > [@](#): > > If Beto O’Rourke would simply falsely accuse Ted Cruz’s father of killing JFK, then Cruz would have no choice but to take up his cause and the race would be over. It’s all right there in the First Amendment. ---
**Author:** ![Enginerd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/bcef8e/32.png) [@Enginerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enginerd)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2018, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/286 "2018-07-28T20:56:26Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > Wasn’t Cruz a debate champion at some point in undergrad? He might feel that working from a personal strength outweighs giving O’Rourke exposure, plus he may feel that not wanting to debate will make it look like he’s got something to hide. O’Rourke should propose to hold the immigration debate in Spanish. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2018, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/287 "2018-07-28T23:29:02Z")
> [@Enginerd](#): > > O’Rourke should propose to hold the immigration debate in Spanish. Good plan. That’ll definitely convince undecided Texas voters to support the Democratic party. AIUI, Cruz speaks Spanish, a little anyway. Enough to smack down Marco Rubio in it during a debate joust: [Marco Rubio Says Ted Cruz Can't Speak Spanish, Cruz Responds In Spanish | Video | RealClearPolitics](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/02/13/marco_rubio_says_ted_cruz_cant_speak_spanish_cruz_responds_in_spanish.html) Doubt he’s fluent though. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2018, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/288 "2018-07-29T02:36:42Z")
Damn you Miss Molly for leaving too early. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2018, 10:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/289 "2018-07-31T10:10:06Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > [Cruz proposes five debates with Beto O’Rourke.](https://www.texastribune.org/2018/07/25/ted-cruz-proposes-five-debates-beto-orourke-texas/amp/?__twitter_impression=true) > > Does an incumbent with a comfortable lead ask for debates? Someone with Cruz’s arrogance about his intelligence, possibly. I suspect he thinks he can wipe the floor with O’Rourke and turn a high single digit lead into a double digit lead. If Cruz was thinking more strategically though, keeping O’Rourke fairly close but slightly out of reach draws in a lot of Democratic money that could better be used for races they could win. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2018, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/290 "2018-08-01T16:55:35Z")
Or his internal polling could have showed a shrinking lead. [Texas Lyceum poll](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2018/08/01/texas-senate-contest-nearly-dead-heat-ted-cruz-leading-beto-orourke-just-2-points-per-texas-lyceum-poll): Cruz 41, Beto 39, undecided 19 ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2018, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/291 "2018-08-01T17:10:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If Cruz was thinking more strategically though, keeping O’Rourke fairly close but slightly out of reach draws in a lot of Democratic money that could better be used for races they could win. Like this one? ---
**Author:** ![RickG](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rickg/32/5174_2.png) [@RickG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickG)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2018, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/292 "2018-08-01T17:11:50Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Or his internal polling could have showed a shrinking lead. > > [Texas Lyceum poll](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2018/08/01/texas-senate-contest-nearly-dead-heat-ted-cruz-leading-beto-orourke-just-2-points-per-texas-lyceum-poll): Cruz 41, Beto 39, undecided 19 This is an interesting poll. The result you quote is their likely voter number, where “likely” is defined as registered and voted in either the primary this year, or one of the two previous midterms. Even for the registered voters, Cruz is still only up by 2. The same poll has incumbent Governor Abbott (R) up by 16%. Given that he won by 19% in 2014, a very bad year for Democrats, that suggests to me that the poll is not ridiculously out of line with the electorate in Texas. My pessimism for November has Benn reduced by a hair. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2018, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/293 "2018-08-01T17:21:41Z")
Lyceum poll: [complete results](https://www.texaslyceum.org/resources/Poll%202018/Day%202/Day%202%202018%20Texas%20Lyceum%20Toplines%20(2).pdf) and [crosstabs](https://www.texaslyceum.org/resources/Poll%202018/Day%202/2018_Lyceum_Crosstabs.pdf). ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2018, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/294 "2018-08-01T19:16:03Z")
[Quinnipiac](https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2559) also shows a tightening race, though they have Cruz still up by 6, 49-43. It had been 50-39 in May. A big gulf in the number of undecideds between the two polls: 8 points for the Q-poll, 19 points for Lyceum. Big difference between Beto having to win slightly more than half of the undecideds to win (Lyceum) versus having to get practically all of them (Quinnipiac). ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2018, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/295 "2018-08-01T21:06:06Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If Cruz was thinking more strategically though, keeping O’Rourke fairly close but slightly out of reach draws in a lot of Democratic money that could better be used for races they could win. You’re going to have to explain how that would work. I think I got step 1: “annoy 49% of voters,” but steps 2 and 3 elude me. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/296 "2018-08-02T00:17:56Z")
Interesting in Quinnipiac poll that 43% of potential voters still don’t know enough about O’Rourke to have an opinion about him. If there is to be an upset (and if there is it would be a shocking upset) it rests on white males not bothering to come out so much while women, Blacks, and Hispanics (all of who favor O’Rourke) do. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/297 "2018-08-02T00:27:27Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Interesting in Quinnipiac poll that 43% of potential voters still don’t know enough about O’Rourke to have an opinion about him. > > If there is to be an upset (and if there is it would be a shocking upset) it rests on white males not bothering to come out so much while women, Blacks, and Hispanics (all of who favor O’Rourke) do. That large undecided number is weird. Oh well, we get the government we deserve to pay attention to. White males are probably not going to stay on the sidelines if O’Rourke continues to hammer a gun control message. Which is why I believe he’s going to soft-pedal that from now on. (EDIT: Is it soft-peddle? Or soft-pedal?) Lots of “Beto” signs out and about. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/298 "2018-08-02T01:14:44Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > … (EDIT: Is it soft-peddle? Or soft-pedal?) … “Soft pedal”. It comes from “the soft pedal of the piano” not from “to soft sell.” ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/299 "2018-08-05T16:15:53Z")
Beto aggressively courting the dog owners vote by rescuing two lost labs on his way to Del Rio: > Really, they should cut a quick ad showing Beto rescuing these two manly man’s dogs with Cruz’s little froo-froo dog. The message won’t be lost here in Tejas, that’s for sure. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/300 "2018-08-05T18:24:55Z")
“I got ninety-nine problems, but those two bitches aren’t any of them” - Ted Cruz (His staff is eagerly awaiting new polling numbers, expected to reflect a massive shift in his popularity among the Texas African American community…) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=14) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=16)