# Does Beto O'Rourke have a chance to oust Ted Cruz? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 2, 2018, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987 "2018-02-02T00:12:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/301 "2018-08-05T18:28:47Z")
… you lost me. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/302 "2018-08-05T18:38:16Z")
There’s a rap song that says “I’ve got 99 problems, but a bitch ain’t one”. It’s been parodied in many different forms. **elucidator** is saying that Cruz would attempt to parody it himself, in the hope that that would make him seem “hip” and “with it” to black voters. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/303 "2018-08-05T18:52:52Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Beto aggressively courting the dog owners vote by rescuing two lost labs on his way to Del Rio: > > [https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1026137340438294529?s=19](https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1026137340438294529?s=19)… Good on him. FWIW, those dogs don’t look like they were lost for very long: they look well-fed, if not fat; their fur doesn’t look matted or mangy. One looks like it has a collar on, but both of them look more like pets/hunting dogs, than the stray dogs you usually come across. At least in East Texas. If hunting dogs, hunters usually will have collars or harnesses on their animals, if not full blown GPS rigs. Oh well, it’s a great story. OTOH, I stopped and coaxed into my car from the middle of traffic, a very fat, very scared Lab that had run off sans collar. Thank God he had a chip with up to date owner info, and that the local vet hospital was able to read it. Still not sure how he managed to not get hit—he was pretty car-stupid. If he could talk, you would have seen him saying, “Oh God! Shit! Shit! Shit! I’ll never leave home again!” Just an old, confused dog. Owner was grateful. Latest Quinnipiac, which I think may already have been posted, but w/e: Cruz +6. [Poll Results | Quinnipiac University Poll](https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2559) RCP average Cruz +6.5 Not over yet by a long shot. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/304 "2018-08-05T18:56:40Z")
Beto now needs to rescue 2 Chihuahuas and two Pit Bulls and he’ll have the dog owner vote here in Texas locked and loaded. ---
**Author:** ![Tangent](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tangent/32/3098_2.png) [@Tangent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tangent)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/305 "2018-08-05T21:10:30Z")
Just made a donation to Beto’s campaign. It would be huge if we can oust that slimeball Cruz. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/306 "2018-08-05T21:24:58Z")
Still, going to border on miraculous, should it actually occur. Don’t believe in miracles, until they happen, and somebody explains to me why it wasn’t a miracle at all. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2018, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/307 "2018-08-07T13:40:00Z")
CNN Politics says O’Rourke isn’t doing as well among Latino voters as he would like (look about a third of the way down here): [Trump may not be enough to swing Latino turnout Democrats' way | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/07/politics/democrats-hispanics-midterm-elections-fault-lines/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2018, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/308 "2018-08-07T14:01:52Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Still, going to border on miraculous, should it actually occur. Don’t believe in miracles, until they happen, and somebody explains to me why it wasn’t a miracle at all. Beto needs a wave. Whenever wave elections happen, you see some results that were considered pretty unlikely. I think Beto wins if the national popular vote exceeds D+6. Generic ballot polls say 6.9, but there’s also a natural bias in those polls that goes 3 points against the GOP. That’s probably why Beto isn’t leading in the polls. So if the generic ballot goes to D+10 or higher, then Beto should start leading. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2018, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/309 "2018-08-07T20:42:51Z")
I wonder if a national D+10 would put them over 50%. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2018, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/310 "2018-08-07T22:08:57Z")
At +10 they’d win the House quite comfortably. At +3, maybe not. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2018, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/311 "2018-08-22T21:31:39Z")
[Beto trails by only 4, with a margin-of-error of just under 4%.](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-democrat-o-rourke-trails-ted-cruz-just-four-percentage-n902946) > [@](#): > > O’Rourke, a congressman from El Paso who has ignited Democratic hopes with his impressive fundraising, has 45 percent support among registered voters compared with Cruz’s 49 percent. Six percent of voters remain undecided. > > While both candidates have largely consolidated their bases — with O’Rourke capturing the support of 90 percent of Democrats and Cruz securing 91 percent of Republicans — independents in the state are equally split: Forty-six percent of them back O’Rourke, while 45 percent support Cruz. Independents are breaking toward Beto, with only 6% still undecided. This is gonna come down to which side has the more enthusiastic voters and better GOTV. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2018, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/312 "2018-08-22T21:32:39Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > [Beto trails by only 4, with a margin-of-error of just under 4%.](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-democrat-o-rourke-trails-ted-cruz-just-four-percentage-n902946) > > Independents are breaking toward Beto, with only 6% still undecided. This is gonna come down to which side has the more enthusiastic voters and better GOTV. It wold be hard to be enthusiastic about Cruz, I would think. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2018, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/313 "2018-08-22T22:05:20Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > It wold be hard to be enthusiastic about Cruz, I would think. I hear every morning he has to give himself a pep talk before looking in the mirror to shave. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2018, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/314 "2018-08-27T18:44:08Z")
[And now Beto’s only a point behind.](http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/403786-poll-cruz-leads-orourke-by-one-point-in-texas-senate-race) Margin of error: 4.4. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2018, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/315 "2018-08-27T19:47:54Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > [And now Beto’s only a point behind.](http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/403786-poll-cruz-leads-orourke-by-one-point-in-texas-senate-race) Margin of error: 4.4. Going out on a limb here. I predict Beto will be President one day.\* Not in 2020, but sometime after that. I predicted Obama would be President the first time I ever saw him on TV when he was just emerging into national consciousness. Beto has some of the same stuff-- the charisma, presence, integrity, charm, smarts-- that Obama had (and still has, frankly). \*You heard it here first. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2018, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/316 "2018-08-27T19:53:51Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Going out on a limb here. I predict Beto will be President one day.\* Not in 2020, but sometime after that. I predicted Obama would be President the first time I ever saw him on TV when he was just emerging into national consciousness. Beto has some of the same stuff-- the charisma, presence, integrity, charm, smarts-- that Obama had (and still has, frankly). > > \*You heard it here first. Can’t link to it now, but I just read an article that said that losing a squeaker in November may be what pushes Beto into the White House in 2020. Winning, on the other hand, pushes his ambitions of higher office to 2024 or 2028. If he won, and decided to turn around and run for president, he’d be doing the exact thing he’s slamming Cruz on. He also wouldn’t make a good Veep pick in 2020 because it would cede that hard-fight Senate seat right back to the gop. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2018, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/317 "2018-08-27T20:06:06Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Can’t link to it now, but I just read an article that said that losing a squeaker in November may be what pushes Beto into the White House in 2020. Winning, on the other hand, pushes his ambitions of higher office to 2024 or 2028. If he won, and decided to turn around and run for president, he’d be doing the exact thing he’s slamming Cruz on. He also wouldn’t make a good Veep pick in 2020 because it would cede that hard-fight Senate seat right back to the gop. I shouldn’t say pushes him into the White House, but rather a squeaker loss pushes him onto the Dem ticket, either as the presidential candidate or running mate. That was the gist of the article. ---
**Author:** ![PMIthica76](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@PMIthica76](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PMIthica76)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2018, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/318 "2018-08-27T20:18:24Z")
I don’t believe Beto stands a chance, and I hope Cruz levels him in the election. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2018, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/319 "2018-08-27T20:24:54Z")
He’s maybe got the right stuff to be President, but does he have a path? First he’s got to win significant office (governor or senator), and being in Texas makes that an uphill climb (he might do it this cycle, of course, but everyone acknowledges that it’s going to be tough). Then, even if he does secure that Senate seat, he’d better make darned sure that the Senate as a whole is secure before he leaves it: His replacement would almost certainly be a Republican. Unless he waits so long that changing demographics have finally turned Texas blue, but that world is beyond a political event horizon from here: Such a world would be so different that there’s no way we can possibly predict what politics would look like. ---
**Author:** ![andros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e480ec/32.png) [@andros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/andros)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2018, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/320 "2018-08-27T20:25:30Z")
> [@PMIthica76](#): > > I don’t believe Beto stands a chance, and I hope Cruz levels him in the election. Thanks for sharing. Care to elaborate? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=17)