# Does Beto O'Rourke have a chance to oust Ted Cruz? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 2, 2018, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987 "2018-02-02T00:12:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2018, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/321 "2018-08-27T20:33:25Z")
Please, don’t feel obligated. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2018, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/322 "2018-08-27T20:43:00Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > He’s maybe got the right stuff to be President, but does he have a path? First he’s got to win significant office (governor or senator), and being in Texas makes that an uphill climb (he might do it this cycle, of course, but everyone acknowledges that it’s going to be tough). Then, even if he does secure that Senate seat, he’d better make darned sure that the Senate as a whole is secure before he leaves it: His replacement would almost certainly be a Republican. Unless he waits so long that changing demographics have finally turned Texas blue, but that world is beyond a political event horizon from here: Such a world would be so different that there’s no way we can possibly predict what politics would look like. His path is name recognition, charisma and a message that resonates. It’s not like he’s running as a nobody; he’s a sitting member of Congress. While I’d like to have someone with executive experience atop the ticket, or military service, the most important thing is charisma and a message that resonates. Ok, now I can post the link to the article I referenced: [Could Beto O’Rourke Become President?](https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/beto-orourke-become-president/) ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2018, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/323 "2018-08-27T20:50:32Z")
> [@PMIthica76](#): > > I don’t believe Beto stands a chance, and I hope Cruz levels him in the election. > [@andros](#): > > Thanks for sharing. Care to elaborate? > [@VinylTurnip](#): > > Please, don’t feel obligated. Ditto. Please consider yourself excused from elaborating. Please. > [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > …Ok, now I can post the link to the article I referenced: [Could Beto O’Rourke Become President?](https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/beto-orourke-become-president/) Thanks! ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2018, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/324 "2018-08-27T22:02:25Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > His path is name recognition, charisma and a message that resonates. It’s not like he’s running as a nobody; he’s a sitting member of Congress. Most sitting members of the House are nobodies outside their districts. If he really wants to be president, he should run for governor. Like Gavin Newsom is doing in CA. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2018, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/325 "2018-08-27T22:19:41Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Most sitting members of the House are nobodies outside their districts. If he really wants to be president, he should run for governor. Like Gavin Newsom is doing in CA. In this political environment, not having a lightning rod attached to you for years upon years may be a better way to run. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2018, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/326 "2018-08-27T22:30:23Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > At +10 they’d win the House quite comfortably. At +3, maybe not. According to the [FiveThirtyEight model](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo'), Democrats need a +5.3 popular vote win to have a 50% chance of a House majority. They don’t have a Senate model up yet. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 10:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/327 "2018-08-28T10:29:12Z")
Recent poll says Cruz is leading by 1%, which is margin of error zone. > **[Poll: Cruz leads O’Rourke by 1 point in Texas Senate race](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/403786-poll-cruz-leads-orourke-by-one-point-in-texas-senate-race/)** > > Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leads his Democratic challenger, Rep. Beto O’Rourke, by just 1 point in their Texas Senate race, well within the margin of error of a new poll from Emerson College.… ---
**Author:** ![Tangent](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tangent/32/3098_2.png) [@Tangent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tangent)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/328 "2018-08-28T14:35:34Z")
I saw that, and it’s heartening. However, I’ve seen critiques of that poll regarding it having a relatively high percentage of ‘undecideds’ (21 %) compared to other polls which give Cruz a larger lead with a smaller percentage of undecideds. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/329 "2018-08-28T16:26:12Z")
Its not simply the actual numbers of people who prefer Beto. This is Texas, and these are Republicans. They may be willing to do almost anything to keep Cruz from losing, but they _will_ do anything to keep Beto from winning! So, that adds another fudge factor to guesstimate. If there are political shenanigans, which are more common in Texas than pecan pie, then the Dems will go to court. The Republicans are already there. Beto cannot just win, he must win decisively if not overwhelming. If it gets to court cases and recounts, it is lost. It is nonetheless heartening to make the bastards nervous, to see them looking back over their shoulders as if worrying that maybe Jesus doesn’t love them \*that \*much! Sic 'em, Beto! ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/330 "2018-08-28T16:55:44Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Its not simply the actual numbers of people who prefer Beto. This is Texas, and these are Republicans. They may be willing to do almost anything to keep Cruz from losing, but they _will_ do anything to keep Beto from winning! > > So, that adds another fudge factor to guesstimate. If there are political shenanigans, which are more common in Texas than pecan pie, then the Dems will go to court. The Republicans are already there. > > Beto cannot just win, he must win decisively if not overwhelming. If it gets to court cases and recounts, it is lost. It is nonetheless heartening to make the bastards nervous, to see them looking back over their shoulders as if worrying that maybe Jesus doesn’t love them \*that \*much! > > Sic 'em, Beto! Since there’s no way he’s going to win overwhelmingly, I guess we should all just give up then? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/331 "2018-08-28T17:03:40Z")
Ooh. Snap. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/332 "2018-08-28T17:16:43Z")
It looks like you need to be within 10% of the other guy’s vote total to be allowed to request a recount. By my calculation, discounting 3rd party votes, that means a win with 52.6% of the vote. [https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/laws/recounts.shtml](https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/laws/recounts.shtml) ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/333 "2018-08-28T20:21:19Z")
Anecdotally, I’ll say that I see more Beto signs in the NE Dallas suburbs I live in than I do Ted Cruz signs. Only one Cruz sign to probably 5-10 Beto signs. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/334 "2018-08-28T21:06:14Z")
I sorta feel like at some point Beto may have already made the switch from running for Senate to running for president. His viral video has been retweeted by big name athletes and celebrities, and he’s gonna be on Ellen, neither of which really does him a lick of good in Texas (and might actually be hurting him), but totally raises his national profile and will help fill his coffers. I think he may have started out wanting to unseat Teddy Boy, but now may be licking his chops as he eyes the papa grande. ---
**Author:** ![Rhodes](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rhodes/32/273_2.png) [@Rhodes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhodes)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/335 "2018-08-28T21:13:22Z")
> [@bump](#): > > Anecdotally, I’ll say that I see more Beto signs in the NE Dallas suburbs I live in than I do Ted Cruz signs. Only one Cruz sign to probably 5-10 Beto signs. Also anecdotally, there’s Beto yard signs all over the Houston suburbs. I’ve only found one Cruz sign. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/336 "2018-08-28T21:21:09Z")
> [@bump](#): > > Anecdotally, I’ll say that I see more Beto signs in the NE Dallas suburbs I live in than I do Ted Cruz signs. Only one Cruz sign to probably 5-10 Beto signs. > [@Rhodes](#): > > Also anecdotally, there’s Beto yard signs all over the Houston suburbs. I’ve only found one Cruz sign. Also, many Beto signs all over San Antonio neighborhoods that you’d expect to be Republican. I’ve only seen one Ted Cruz sign. But remember that Austin, San Antonio, and all counties south of here went to Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/337 "2018-08-28T21:23:08Z")
[PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5313/Will-Ted-Cruz-be-re-elected-to-the-US-Senate-in-Texas-in-2018#data) market has moved from roughly three to one Cruz to two to one Cruz. I’m guessing due to the recent Emerson poll, but possibly also skateboarding, anthem, rainbows, unicorns, etc. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/338 "2018-08-28T22:29:41Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > I sorta feel like at some point Beto may have already made the switch from running for Senate to running for president. His viral video has been retweeted by big name athletes and celebrities, and he’s gonna be on Ellen, neither of which really does him a lick of good in Texas (and might actually be hurting him), but totally raises his national profile and will help fill his coffers. I think he may have started out wanting to unseat Teddy Boy, but now may be licking his chops as he eyes the papa grande. I don’t think I’ve seen a single thread about a rising Dem star without someone saying “Maybe he’s going to try for President!” It’s getting a little silly. As bad as when Trump got nominated and every Republican who got on board was declared angling for the VP slot. You all realize that the vast majority of politicians don’t run for the top job, right? ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/339 "2018-08-28T22:35:04Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I don’t think I’ve seen a single thread about a rising Dem star without someone saying “Maybe he’s going to try for President!” It’s getting a little silly. As bad as when Trump got nominated and every Republican who got on board was declared angling for the VP slot. You all realize that the vast majority of politicians don’t run for the top job, right? You do realize it’s going to be a large field of candidates this time around, right? And you do realize that because of the outsider in the WH right now, people on non-traditional paths to the WH are probably being looked at more. In additional to other criteria, politicians who have demonstrated some crossover/red state appeal are likely considering their options. And really, you’re getting bent over people speculating about who’s gonna run? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/340 "2018-08-28T23:38:43Z")
Yes, I am totally bent about it. That’s why I said it was silly. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=18)