# Does Beto O'Rourke have a chance to oust Ted Cruz? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 2, 2018, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987 "2018-02-02T00:12:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 21
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2018, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/401 "2018-09-02T00:03:27Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > “Trump tweeted Friday that he will headline “a major rally” for Cruz in October and is “picking the biggest stadium in Texas we can find.” He added, “Ted has my complete and total Endorsement (sic),” … > The tweet of support was a long way from Trump’s previous assessment of Cruz’ record. He once declared the senator “has accomplished absolutely nothing” for Texans. Cruz has labeled Trump “a sniveling coward.” But the promise of presidential assistance suggested Cruz — and his party — are feeling the heat.” > > [http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-ted-cruz-trump-campaign-20180901-story.html#](http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-ted-cruz-trump-campaign-20180901-story.html#) > And this story features a wonderful headline, indeed: > **‘Sniveling coward’ Trump to campaign for ‘Lyin’ Ted’ Cruz in Texas** The biggest stadium in Texas is at the University of Texas in Austin. That about as far as from Cruz Country as you can get in Texas. Again, Mr. Trump tweets without thinking. ---
**Author:** ![Anny\_Middon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/bc79bd/32.png) [@Anny\_Middon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anny_Middon)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2018, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/402 "2018-09-02T00:24:26Z")
The March for Our Live young people are working on funding for a billboard with one of DJT’s tweets: > [@](#): > > Why would the people of Texas support Ted Cruz when he has accomplished nothing for them. He is another all talk, no action pol! ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2018, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/403 "2018-09-02T00:25:22Z")
Well he did include the weasel phrase “that we can find”, so it could be the short track at a county fair. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2018, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/404 "2018-09-02T00:28:47Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > The biggest stadium in Texas is at the University of Texas in Austin. That about as far as from Cruz Country as you can get in Texas. Again, Mr. Trump tweets without thinking. And I am guilty of doing just the same thing, although I’m just a nobody on a message board. After doing some additional research, it appears that Kyle Field, in College Station, TX, is the largest. Of course, the rankings are going by football seating, I imagine it could vary for a political rally. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2018, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/405 "2018-09-02T00:48:20Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Does whining, begging and beseeching count? What is this? Prom Night? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2018, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/406 "2018-09-02T00:51:09Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > “Trump tweeted Friday that he will headline “a major rally” for Cruz in October and is “picking the biggest stadium in Texas we can find.” He added, “Ted has my complete and total Endorsement (sic),” … > The tweet of support was a long way from Trump’s previous assessment of Cruz’ record. He once declared the senator “has accomplished absolutely nothing” for Texans. Cruz has labeled Trump “a sniveling coward.” But the promise of presidential assistance suggested Cruz — and his party — are feeling the heat.” > > [http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-ted-cruz-trump-campaign-20180901-story.html#](http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-ted-cruz-trump-campaign-20180901-story.html#) > And this story features a wonderful headline, indeed: > **‘Sniveling coward’ Trump to campaign for ‘Lyin’ Ted’ Cruz in Texas** Why am I suddenly reminded of these cartoons? (Apologies for Godwinning the thread, but…damn). > **[File:StalinHitler.jpg](https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ficheiro:StalinHitler.jpg)** > > This work is in the public domain in its country of origin and other countries and areas where the copyright term is the author's life plus 70 years or fewer. > https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/PDMCreative Commons Public Domain Mark 1.0falsefalse Click on a date/time to view the file as it appeared at that time. > You cannot overwrite this file. [http://florenciaaraya.cumbresblogs.com/files/2014/05/nazisoviet-pact.png](http://florenciaaraya.cumbresblogs.com/files/2014/05/nazisoviet-pact.png) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2018, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/407 "2018-09-02T00:52:24Z")
> [@Anny\_Middon](#): > > The March for Our Live young people are working on funding for a billboard with one of DJT’s tweets: I came here to post about that. [GoFundMe](https://www.gofundme.com/texas-against-ted-cruz) to raise money to put an anti-Cruz Trump Tweet on a mobile billboard to troll the Trump/Cruz rally. This is quoted above, but I love it so much I’ll quote it again. Pearls of wisdom from the tiniest Twitter fingers… > [@](#): > > Why would the people of Texas support Ted Cruz when he has accomplished nothing for them. He is another all talk, no action pol! ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2018, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/408 "2018-09-02T03:15:21Z")
> [@Sam\_Lowry](#): > > …Trump recently tweeted that he’s going to hold a rally for Cruz in the biggest stadium they can find in Texas. I’m hoping that happens, partly because Texas has some very big stadiums and I’m guessing it would not be a full crowd at wherever they end up. But also **I’m hoping that maybe Obama or some other big name Democrat comes to do a rally for Beto.** The differences between a Trump/Cruz rally and a Obama/O’Rourke rally would be huge… The part I bolded above is a _really bad idea_ in my opinion. The smartest thing Beto can do is to continue running his campaign the way he has and keep national Democrats at arms length. He is the most charismatic Democrat to run in Texas since Anne Richards. He is very talented as well and has broader appeal than I would expect. But the math has to work out in a pretty spectacular fashion for him win. Sorry. Having a big name Democrat show up _a la_ Trump is likely a very bad idea. It could in fact be the death knell for him if Hillary or Nancy Pelosi even utter his name in front of a camera. For a Democrat to win a statewide race in Texas requires gently nudging independents and disaffected Republicans over the line toward the guy who isn’t the odious and weasely Ted Cruz. You can’t make any big sudden moves that might startle them and make them run. People get that he is part of the progressive left but he still keeps on looking like an independent and an insurgent to plenty of potential voters. Texans are drawn to those qualities because it makes them feel like they are TEXANS. If he catches all the breaks and plays it just right, it’s a possibility. If his opponent was anyone other than Cruz, he wouldn’t stand a chance in hell. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2018, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/409 "2018-09-02T04:51:04Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > The part I bolded above is a _really bad idea_ in my opinion. > > The smartest thing Beto can do is to continue running his campaign the way he has and keep national Democrats at arms length. He is the most charismatic Democrat to run in Texas since Anne Richards. He is very talented as well and has broader appeal than I would expect. But the math has to work out in a pretty spectacular fashion for him win. > > Sorry. > > Having a big name Democrat show up _a la_ Trump is likely a very bad idea. It could in fact be the death knell for him if Hillary or Nancy Pelosi even utter his name in front of a camera. > > For a Democrat to win a statewide race in Texas requires gently nudging independents and disaffected Republicans over the line toward the guy who isn’t the odious and weasely Ted Cruz. You can’t make any big sudden moves that might startle them and make them run. > > People get that he is part of the progressive left but he still keeps on looking like an independent and an insurgent to plenty of potential voters. Texans are drawn to those qualities because it makes them feel like they are TEXANS. > > If he catches all the breaks and plays it just right, it’s a possibility. If his opponent was anyone other than Cruz, he wouldn’t stand a chance in hell. And this goes triple for Bernie Sanders. The national Democratic Party needs to butt out. I’m not even sure I’d risk Joe Biden. This has to be handled just like Doug Jones. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2018, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/410 "2018-09-02T15:39:37Z")
Just a reminder of how important this Texas Senate race is: Not counting Texas, there are nine Senate races seriously in doubt: AZ, FL, IN, MO, MT, ND, NV, TN, WV. The D’s hold six of those nine seats at present, and must win six just to keep their present minority. If they win 7 out of 9, all they do is force Mike Pence to camp out at the dais and decide all votes. _ **The D’s must win 8 out of 9 of those races to run the Senate!** _ :eek: But if Cruz somehow falls to O’Rourke, the D’s need only 7 of the other 9 contested seats. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2018, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/411 "2018-09-02T15:50:42Z")
The importance of TX in team D getting to 51 senate seats was brought up on page 1 of this thread in this post and and a handful posts commenting on this one. > [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Which ones are ahead of Cruz’s seat? > > I’ve laid this out in other threads, but I’ll rehash it briefly here. The democrats can take the senate by winning all currently held dem seats and flipping two republican held seats. I’m sure all will agree that even holding all D seats is not an easy task. The most tenuous batch consists of MT (Tester), ND (Heitkamp), and WV (Manchin). The two easiest R held seats to go after are probably AZ (open) and NV (Heller). One could argue that there should be a couple more or fewer races added to these five, but my point is come election time if the winds are still favorable to the democratic party there will be a handful of races that the Dems must win to grab the senate. > > Now imagine one of those races looks like a lost cause. Maybe a scandal, maybe the R candidate is just running a great campaign and the race looks to be out of reach. Where do you look then for the one more seat you need to get to 51? > > In my opinion (based on Cook PVI) it has to be one of these three: TN (open), MS (Wicker), or… TX (Cruz). The alternative is to just throw up your hands and say we’ll get 'em next time. > > So while the D team can get to 51 without going after Cruz if everything goes smoothly, they have to go after Cruz or a similarly safe seat if there’s even one significant bump in the road. > > Of course, a lot can change in nine months and the Dems certainly have a track record of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. It’s less likely, but not impossible that by election day we’ll be discussing which race the Dems need to focus on to keep 41 seats in the senate. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2018, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/412 "2018-09-02T17:23:56Z")
Of course, if the Dems can get to 50-50, then there’s a chance of a repeat of 2000 when Jim Jeffords changed parties to put the Democrats in charge of the Senate. It’s hard to remember how badly the Bush presidency was floundering around in the first year, prior to 9/11. ---
**Author:** ![andros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e480ec/32.png) [@andros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/andros)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2018, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/413 "2018-09-02T18:00:35Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > Of course, if the Dems can get to 50-50, then there’s a chance of a repeat of 2000 when Jim Jeffords changed parties to put the Democrats in charge of the Senate. It’s hard to remember how badly the Bush presidency was floundering around in the first year, prior to 9/11. I feel like that’s more likely to be Manchin to the Pubbies rather than Collins to the Dems. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2018, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/414 "2018-09-02T18:09:08Z")
> [@andros](#): > > I feel like that’s more likely to be Manchin to the Pubbies rather than Collins to the Dems. I doubt that. It could have happened with an unpopular Hillary Clinton as president and Manchin needed to flip control to the GOP. Manchin is sitting pretty right now, as he can basically funnel unlimited money to West Virginia since both parties want to court that white working class ‘left behind’ demographic that dominates West Virginia and is believed by many to be the reason Trump won. I’d actually be most concerned about Angus King of Maine. King could demand a King’s ransom (pun intended) to flip sides in some sort of a 50/50 senate with a VP Tim Kaine. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2018, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/415 "2018-09-02T18:13:54Z")
The old saw is not true, winning is the main thing but it is not the only thing. A major blue surge in this election will arouse a new sense of centrism and compromise in those Republicans who can tie their own shoes and make their own oatmeal. A Democrat surge will be a big boost to the sane Republicans. Like in the movies, where you totally slap some guy and he says “Thanks, I needed that…” How many Republican Senators up in 2020? OF those, how many would respond to a Dem wave by giving Trump a public tongue bath for two years? ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2018, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/416 "2018-09-02T18:58:06Z")
The 2018 Senate map is about as bad as it could possibly be for the Democrats, several of these seats were pushed Democratic by Obama’s coattails in 2012 and idiotic Republican comments about abortion and rape. 2020 is a much better map for the Democrats, with only Doug Jones of Alabama in serious jeopardy as of today. [2020 United States Senate elections - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2020) So, even if the Democrats don’t take the Senate in 2018, keeping it as close to 50-50 as possible is critical. 2020 could end up with the Democrats having control of all 3 branches again. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Lowry](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Sam\_Lowry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Lowry)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2018, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/417 "2018-09-02T19:09:50Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > The part I bolded above is a _really bad idea_ in my opinion. > > The smartest thing Beto can do is to continue running his campaign the way he has and keep national Democrats at arms length. He is the most charismatic Democrat to run in Texas since Anne Richards. He is very talented as well and has broader appeal than I would expect. But the math has to work out in a pretty spectacular fashion for him win. > > Sorry. > > Having a big name Democrat show up _a la_ Trump is likely a very bad idea. It could in fact be the death knell for him if Hillary or Nancy Pelosi even utter his name in front of a camera. > > For a Democrat to win a statewide race in Texas requires gently nudging independents and disaffected Republicans over the line toward the guy who isn’t the odious and weasely Ted Cruz. You can’t make any big sudden moves that might startle them and make them run. > > People get that he is part of the progressive left but he still keeps on looking like an independent and an insurgent to plenty of potential voters. Texans are drawn to those qualities because it makes them feel like they are TEXANS. > > If he catches all the breaks and plays it just right, it’s a possibility. If his opponent was anyone other than Cruz, he wouldn’t stand a chance in hell. Valid point, I do know a lot of people who’d be excited about an Obama rally, but I know that some would be turned off by that. But even if Beto just has another big rally at the same time, the contrasts would be big between his rally and a Trump/Cruz one. Or maybe instead of getting a big Democrat for the rally, get someone that everyone in Texas loves, like Willie Nelson. He’s done a rally for Beto before. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2018, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/418 "2018-09-02T19:40:23Z")
> [@Sam\_Lowry](#): > > Valid point, I do know a lot of people who’d be excited about an Obama rally, but I know that some would be turned off by that. > > But even if Beto just has another big rally at the same time, the contrasts would be big between his rally and a Trump/Cruz one. Or maybe instead of getting a big Democrat for the rally, get someone that everyone in Texas loves, like Willie Nelson. He’s done a rally for Beto before. Yep, Willie Nelson would be a better idea. Better yet, some ex-military person who is a Democrat and a Texan like William McRaven might help. But I honestly feel any nationally known Democrat would do more harm than good and could be turned on Beto as him being a puppet of Hillary/Bernie/Obama/ The Deep State. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2018, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/419 "2018-09-03T00:02:04Z")
Of course, Michael Avenatti wants to lead the counter protest to the Trump/Cruz rally > ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2018, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/420 "2018-09-03T03:11:08Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > Of course, if the Dems can get to 50-50, then there’s a chance of a repeat of 2000 when Jim Jeffords changed parties to put the Democrats in charge of the Senate. It’s hard to remember how badly the Bush presidency was floundering around in the first year, prior to 9/11. I don’t know who would flip though. Susan Collins is not actually disgruntled and I can’t think of any other Republican who would even come close to being a Democrat. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=20) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=22)