# Does Beto O'Rourke have a chance to oust Ted Cruz? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 2, 2018, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987 "2018-02-02T00:12:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 25
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2018, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/481 "2018-09-18T14:11:27Z")
How wide of national coverage is the Botham Jean case getting? The short version is that it appears a cop at the end of a 15 hour shift went to the wrong apartment thinking it was hers, entered, and shot the young accountant living there, presumably in the dark (because if the lights were on, she would have noticed it wasn’t her apartment.) Young accountant happened to be black. It’s a holy mess and some key facts are disputed (like if the door was unlocked). Beto said he didn’t know all the facts but that at the very least, it was clear that the cop needed to be fired. Cruz characterized that as knee-jerk blame-the-cop thinking. I have no idea who votes for this guy. [https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/09/17/ted-cruz-sees-blame-police-officer-reflex-beto-orourke-after-botham-jean-killing](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/09/17/ted-cruz-sees-blame-police-officer-reflex-beto-orourke-after-botham-jean-killing) ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2018, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/482 "2018-09-18T14:21:52Z")
> [@MandaJo](#): > > … I have no idea who votes for this guy. You’ve not been to Texas, I take it? ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2018, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/483 "2018-09-18T14:28:54Z")
> [@MandaJo](#): > > How wide of national coverage is the Botham Jean case getting?.. CNN, for one, has been giving it pretty thorough coverage. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2018, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/484 "2018-09-18T16:11:40Z")
> [@MandaJo](#): > > it appears a cop at the end of a 15 hour shift went to the wrong apartment thinking it was hers Good thing she doesn’t have a job where going to the correct address in response to a summons could be a life-and-death matter… oh, wait… ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2018, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/485 "2018-09-18T16:46:48Z")
It’s all fine - they executed a search warrant on the victim’s apartment and found (or “found”) a bag of marijuana, so the home invasion and shooting was fully justified. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2018, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/486 "2018-09-18T16:50:39Z")
The guy who was sitting in his own home is suspected of drug use. \*Not \*the woman who couldn’t remember where her own damn apartment was. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2018, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/487 "2018-09-18T16:57:34Z")
Hey guys, maybe this sort of thing is legal in Texas. We just don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2018, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/488 "2018-09-18T17:13:54Z")
It _is_ the state where “But he NEEDED killin’ !” is an absolute legal defense. Not quite the same as Florida’s Stand Your Ground but close. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2018, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/489 "2018-09-18T17:36:21Z")
Even in Texas, it’s a pretty hard sell to accidentally go to the wrong apartment and shoot the guy “in self defense”. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2018, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/490 "2018-09-18T17:43:29Z")
But he was black. That made him scary. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2018, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/491 "2018-09-18T17:59:12Z")
Lawyer needed: What’s the legal status of black people in Texas these days? Can they sit on furniture inside their home with the reasonable expectation of not getting shot by an off-duty police officer who enters for no reason? Ted Cruz, who presumably knows stuff, seems to think this is grey area. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2018, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/492 "2018-09-18T19:21:41Z")
Cruz up nine according to Quinnipac in a “likely voter” pool: [Ted Cruz leads Beto O'Rourke 54 to 45, Quinnipiac poll says | The Texas Tribune](https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/18/ted-cruz-leads-beto-orourke-54-45-quinnipiac-poll-says/) ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2018, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/493 "2018-09-18T20:19:40Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Cruz up nine according to Quinnipac in a “likely voter” pool: [Ted Cruz leads Beto O'Rourke 54 to 45, Quinnipiac poll says | The Texas Tribune](https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/18/ted-cruz-leads-beto-orourke-54-45-quinnipiac-poll-says/) Quinnipiac is always an outlier favoring Republican candidates. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2018, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/494 "2018-09-18T21:14:23Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > Quinnipiac is always an outlier favoring Republican candidates. Who says? 538 gives them an A- rating with a +0.1 Dem lean. ---
**Author:** ![Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambrosio_Spinola)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2018, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/495 "2018-09-18T21:51:31Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Cruz up nine according to Quinnipac in a “likely voter” pool: [Ted Cruz leads Beto O'Rourke 54 to 45, Quinnipiac poll says | The Texas Tribune](https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/18/ted-cruz-leads-beto-orourke-54-45-quinnipiac-poll-says/) I am not an advocate of “unskewing” polls, but if Beto does pull off an unlikely win then it will be because he gets a bunch of _unlikely_ voters out. Anyway I’m glad I’m not the one having to put together likely voter screens in this environment. My gut feeling is that Cruz wins by a not especially close 4-7% at the end of the day. But considering that Abbott looks to be crushing Lupe Valdez by 20 points or more, that’s a pretty poor showing by Cruz. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2018, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/496 "2018-09-19T00:42:02Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > Quinnipiac is always an outlier favoring Republican candidates. Rasmussen. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2018, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/497 "2018-09-19T02:59:09Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > Rasmussen. Ah, yes, you’re right. Sorry. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2018, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/498 "2018-09-19T03:38:54Z")
CNN Politics says Beto had better not count on a big turnout: [Texas elections: Democrats may not get the big turnout they need | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/18/politics/texas-likely-registered-voters/index.html) Tofu rears its ugly head, and Cruz tweets, “If Beto wins, BBQ will be illegal”: [Cruz: 'if Beto wins, BBQ will be illegal' | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/18/politics/cruz-beto-bbq-ban-texas/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2018, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/499 "2018-09-19T05:14:54Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > CNN Politics says Beto had better not count on a big turnout … Of course he can’t _count_ on it. But he has to _hope_ for it. And it is as they stated in that article (oddly place comma and all)- > [@](#): > > Likely voter model and screens may, for whatever, reason not be picking up Betomania. There are lots of ways to build a likely voter screen or model, and the ones being chosen by these pollsters may not work this year. And there _have_ been polls that have not picked up the turnout of change voters. Capuano was polling 9 ahead of Pessley on an RV poll just before and 13 on an LV one for example, but Pressley won by something like 20 points. It’s not just D v R enthusiasm that is the factor. Incumbency is minimally not the big advantage it often has been. That said, the broad environment with a generic House ballot now at D+9 and Trump under water by 13.4 also helps Beto some. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2018, 11:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/500 "2018-09-19T11:36:06Z")
We shall be pleasantly surprised if Beto pulls the upset but it appears less likely. It’s all about turnout, if this is indeed a wave election then it could happen. Still a chance for Dem control, which would mean we’d no longer have to listen to Susan Collins pretend to waver before toeing the Republican line when the vote is called. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=24) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=26)