# Does Beto O'Rourke have a chance to oust Ted Cruz? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 2, 2018, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987 "2018-02-02T00:12:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/41 "2018-02-06T01:40:32Z")
I think in 2018, the Democrat has at least a fair to middling chance against the Republican in almost every race, and that includes this one. But I’m not convinced that it’s high on the list of Democratic pickup opportunities. The way I see it, the races that matter the most would be the ones (if any) that put Democrats at 51 seats, 60 seats, and 67 seats. There’s no chance for 60 or 67 this cycle, so it’s the 51st seat that matters. And I don’t think that O’Rourke is likely to be that 51st seat, because in an environment where he wins, probably so do others ahead of him. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/42 "2018-02-06T02:01:42Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > It would seem more logical that California _Republicans_ move to Texas than their Dems. > > However, if enough California D’s leave to make Texas blue, all that does is make California red. So it’s literally a lose-win strategy. ISTM, all those guesses would require a little more demographic analysis and number crunching to be meaningful. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/43 "2018-02-06T02:06:23Z")
2016 Election Results California H. Clinton 61.6% 7,362,490 D. Trump 32.8% 3,916,209 Texas D. Trump 52.2% 4,685,047 H. Clinton 43.2% 3,877,868 So 810,000 Democrats added to Texas sways it, but that number makes very little difference to California. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/44 "2018-02-06T02:21:50Z")
> [@Chimera](#): > > 2016 Election Results > > California > > H. Clinton 61.6% 7,362,490 > D. Trump 32.8% 3,916,209 > > Texas > > D. Trump 52.2% 4,685,047 > H. Clinton 43.2% 3,877,868 > > So 810,000 Democrats added to Texas sways it, but that number makes very little difference to California. I assume you are actually answering JohnT here and I snuck in the middle. How reasonable is it to guess 800k California/NY Dems or Repubs will move to Texas because of the idiosyncrasies of the new tax cuts is what I’m asking. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/45 "2018-02-06T02:28:35Z")
The Texas population grew 7 million people (@20 to @27) between 2010 and 2016, a rather impressive rate of growth. California grew slightly over 5 million in the same time period. (34 to 39) The Texas population is getting less and less white and more and more blue. So even if Beto doesn’t win this time, the trend is in that direction. Especially if Republicans keep driving away minority votes. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/46 "2018-02-06T03:04:08Z")
The Dems have been crowing about the demographics going their way for a while now. Excuse me if I don’t hold my breath. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/47 "2018-02-06T03:47:42Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I think in 2018, the Democrat has at least a fair to middling chance against the Republican in almost every race, and that includes this one. But I’m not convinced that it’s high on the list of Democratic pickup opportunities. > > The way I see it, the races that matter the most would be the ones (if any) that put Democrats at 51 seats, 60 seats, and 67 seats. There’s no chance for 60 or 67 this cycle, so it’s the 51st seat that matters. And I don’t think that O’Rourke is likely to be that 51st seat, because in an environment where he wins, probably so do others ahead of him. Which ones are ahead of Cruz’s seat? I’ve laid this out in other threads, but I’ll rehash it briefly here. The democrats can take the senate by winning all currently held dem seats and flipping two republican held seats. I’m sure all will agree that even holding all D seats is not an easy task. The most tenuous batch consists of MT (Tester), ND (Heitkamp), and WV (Manchin). The two easiest R held seats to go after are probably AZ (open) and NV (Heller). One could argue that there should be a couple more or fewer races added to these five, but my point is come election time if the winds are still favorable to the democratic party there will be a handful of races that the Dems must win to grab the senate. Now imagine one of those races looks like a lost cause. Maybe a scandal, maybe the R candidate is just running a great campaign and the race looks to be out of reach. Where do you look then for the one more seat you need to get to 51? In my opinion (based on Cook PVI) it has to be one of these three: TN (open), MS (Wicker), or… TX (Cruz). The alternative is to just throw up your hands and say we’ll get 'em next time. So while the D team can get to 51 without going after Cruz if everything goes smoothly, they have to go after Cruz or a similarly safe seat if there’s even one significant bump in the road. Of course, a lot can change in nine months and the Dems certainly have a track record of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. It’s less likely, but not impossible that by election day we’ll be discussing which race the Dems need to focus on to keep 41 seats in the senate. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/48 "2018-02-06T03:50:29Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > … > I’ve laid this out in other threads, but I’ll rehash it briefly here. \… Thanks for that summary. I’ve been wanting something like that. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/49 "2018-02-06T04:01:31Z")
I felt like I was forgetting something… IN (Donnelly) should also probably be added to my list of tough seats to get on the ‘easiest’ path to 51. ---
**Author:** ![Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambrosio_Spinola)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/50 "2018-02-06T04:19:49Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > I felt like I was forgetting something… > > IN (Donnelly) should also probably be added to my list of tough seats to get on the ‘easiest’ path to 51. I think Claire McCaskill (MO) probably has a tougher race than either Heitkamp or Tester. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/51 "2018-02-06T13:22:37Z")
> [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](#): > > I think Claire McCaskill (MO) probably has a tougher race than either Heitkamp or Tester. You may well be right. I don’t think we can say anything for certain until after the primaries in all those states are over at the earliest. As I recall both McCaskill and Donnelly both owe a goodly portion of their 2012 wins to their opponent’s shooting themselves in the foot (legitimate rape and pregnancy from rape is a gift from God respectively). I don’t recall how Heitkamp and Tester won in 2012 or know anything about who their challengers might be this time around. None of that changes the underlying point I’m making. The ‘easy’ path to 51 includes all of them. If it looks like one one of them is doomed to failure then the Dems have to look for a ‘hard’ path and that ‘hard’ path may very well go through Texas. Apart from that point, on general principle, for as long as Ted Cruz is in the senate, I think someone should travel the length and breadth of Texas knocking on doors to tell people what a piece of shit Ted Cruz is at least once every six years. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/52 "2018-02-06T15:38:52Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > The Dems have been crowing about the demographics going their way for a while now. Excuse me if I don’t hold my breath. If the Dems are wrong about this, where do you think the demographics are trending? ---
**Author:** ![Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambrosio_Spinola)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/53 "2018-02-06T16:00:24Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > None of that changes the underlying point I’m making. The ‘easy’ path to 51 includes all of them. If it looks like one one of them is doomed to failure then the Dems have to look for a ‘hard’ path and that ‘hard’ path may very well go through Texas. Indeed so - it’s a nightmare map from a Democratic perspective. In addition to having to hold on to seats in states like Indiana, West Virginia, Missouri and so on, they’ve only got a few seats to even challenge, and those are New Mexico (actually favorable), Arizona (doable, I guess), Tennessee (with the new open seat and a solid Democrat, not entirely unfeasible), Texas (. . . maybe), Mississipi, Nebraska, Utah and Wyoming (not outside of Roy Moore deciding to make a change of residence). Texas is one of the only four I see as even outside chances so they’ve got to at least make a stab at it. Beto may be facing an uphill battle here but he’s a serious contender, not like some of the lightweights and vanity candidates we often get for statewide office. > [@](#): > > Apart from that point, on general principle, for as long as Ted Cruz is in the senate, I think someone should travel the length and breadth of Texas knocking on doors to tell people what a piece of shit Ted Cruz is at least once every six years. Hell yeah. There’s plenty of Cruz voters that aren’t Cruz supporters, him being the POS you describe. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/54 "2018-02-06T17:00:59Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > If the Dems are wrong about this, where do you think the demographics are trending? It’s not so much demographic trends, which are pretty straightforward and mostly agreed upon census numbers, but the assumptions made about how the different demographics will vote into the future. And I didn’t say they were necessarily wrong but Dems have been gloating about the coming Permanent Democratic Majority for a while now, so I’m not holding my breath. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/55 "2018-02-11T22:25:01Z")
> [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](#): > > The primary’s next month and the filing deadlines for candidates was last December, so neither could decide to enter the race now. > > Texas doesn’t allow people to run for multiple offices, so if Joaquin decided to throw in for the Senate seat he’d have to give up his seat in the House like Beto did. I guess Julian could have made a run for it, but it doesn’t make sense for multiple Democrats to tear each other up in the primary and open up a seats for what is a long-shot bid in the first place. I don’t know if O’Rourke coordinated with anybody, but he decided to go for it and that basically cleared the field of other serious contenders after that. Julian actually looks poised to run for President, which is just nuts. > **[Julián Castro says he has 'every interest' in running for president in 2020](https://www.khou.com/article/news/politics/julian-castro-says-he-has-every-interest-in-running-for-president-in-2020/285-515584528)** > > In an interview this week, former San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro gave the strongest indication yet that he's interested in running for president in 2020. He literally has no accomplishments. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2018, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/56 "2018-02-12T02:17:20Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Julian actually looks poised to run for President, which is just nuts. > > [Julián Castro says he has 'every interest' in running for president in 2020 | khou.com](http://www.khou.com/article/news/politics/julian-castro-says-he-has-every-interest-in-running-for-president-in-2020/285-515584528) > > He literally has no accomplishments. Hard to believe he “literally has no accomplishments”. His wikipedia page seems to say otherwise. In any case, how cool would it be for the US to have a President Castro? ---
**Author:** ![Tangent](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tangent/32/3098_2.png) [@Tangent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tangent)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2018, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/57 "2018-02-12T03:37:50Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Julian actually looks poised to run for President, which is just nuts. > > [Julián Castro says he has 'every interest' in running for president in 2020 | khou.com](http://www.khou.com/article/news/politics/julian-castro-says-he-has-every-interest-in-running-for-president-in-2020/285-515584528) > > He literally has no accomplishments. You know who else had no accomplishments when they ran for President? Hitl–er, I mean Trump. And anyway, Castro does have some government experience. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2018, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/58 "2018-02-12T03:37:51Z")
His wikipedia page cites that he asked citizens for ideas on their aspirations. Oh, and he served time as mayor and HUD Secretary. Which are not accomplishments relevant to running for President. The Democratic field resembles a beauty pageant where youth and attractiveness matter more than substance. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2018, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/59 "2018-02-12T03:39:32Z")
> [@Tangent](#): > > You know who else had no accomplishments when they ran for President? Hitl–er, I mean Trump. > > And anyway, Castro does have some government experience. Are Democrats shooting for a failed Presidency that will result in a huge Republican wave? You’d think the party might actually want to govern for more than two years at a time every generation or so. ---
**Author:** ![Tangent](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tangent/32/3098_2.png) [@Tangent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tangent)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2018, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/60 "2018-02-12T03:43:41Z")
I’m not saying he should be President. I would like someone with more experience. I certainly hope the Democratic Party runs someone with a better resume in 2020. I’m just saying that Trump sets the bar pretty low–like under ground. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=4)