# Does Beto O'Rourke have a chance to oust Ted Cruz? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 2, 2018, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987 "2018-02-02T00:12:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 35
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 12:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/681 "2018-10-10T12:05:20Z")
> [@Chisquirrel](#): > > Uh huh. Quick, which side called for a “Second Amendment solution” or threatens violence in the streets if one or both houses of Congress flips, again? Wingnut chatter about a “second Civil War” is also definitely a thing. (Of course, it would be something that conservatives would **have** to start, because of something liberals or the ‘deep state’ did, like impeaching Trump, or winning the Presidency in 2020 in a manner similar to how the Repubs won in 2000 or 2016. ‘Look what you made me do.’) ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/682 "2018-10-10T13:45:45Z")
To get back on track, Cruz is pretty clearly going to win unless something unexpected happens in the next four weeks. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/683 "2018-10-10T14:50:16Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > Probably because it’s not a debate, but an ambush with two hours of, “Senator, do you think Beto is great, or really, really great? Oh, and why are you so awful?” You forgot the hard-hitting question. “Senator, why are you so hated that even your fellow Republican senators want you to lose?” Speaking as a Republican: Go Beto!!! ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2018, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/684 "2018-10-11T00:02:35Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **RickJay** : > > To get back on track, Cruz is pretty clearly going to win unless something unexpected happens in the next four weeks. Plenty of unexpected things will happen in the next four weeks. Cruz will win unless the unexpected things that happen in O’Rourke’s favor significantly outweigh the unexpected things that happen in Cruz’s favor. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2018, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/685 "2018-10-11T00:28:21Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Speaking as a Republican: Go Beto!!! I’d love to be a fly on the wall that could see Paul Ryan’s private reaction if Cruz loses. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2018, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/686 "2018-10-12T15:22:19Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > It’s actually by the Fire Ted PAC, which isn’t connected to Beto. it’s directed by Richard Linklater and is a reference to his movie _Bernie_. See it [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRYYqEgT9uI). Best political ad all year! ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2018, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/687 "2018-10-12T15:30:31Z")
Lagging in the polls, alas, but \*great \*fundraising results for Beto: [O'Rourke smashes record, raises $38.1 million in three months | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/12/politics/beto-orourke-fundraising-record-third-quarter/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Mdm.President](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@Mdm.President](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mdm.President)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2018, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/688 "2018-10-12T17:10:03Z")
They’re reporting a huge surge in new registered voters specifically in suburban areas surrounding Liberal cities. 1.6 Million more than usual. A new record. Wouldn’t that most likely be a positive for Beto? ---
**Author:** ![filmore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7993a0/32.png) [@filmore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmore)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2018, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/689 "2018-10-12T18:01:20Z")
> [@Mdm.President](#): > > They’re reporting a huge surge in new registered voters specifically in suburban areas surrounding Liberal cities. 1.6 Million more than usual. A new record. Wouldn’t that most likely be a positive for Beto? I would think so. But it could also be the case that there is more word getting out about registering to vote because of enthusiasm for Beto. A lot of people are joining his campaign to volunteer, and some of them will be doing voter registration. So I think there are abnormally more people collecting registrations because of Beto’s campaign. No doubt they assign them to areas they think lean D, but there will likely be a big mix anywhere they are doing signups. ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2018, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/690 "2018-10-13T14:27:26Z")
I will never understand how in the world anybody could cast a ballot for Ted Cruz. The fact that he’s leading just confirms every negative stereotype in my head that I have about Texas. IMHO, the way that Beto wins this is by getting a disproportionate amount of _unlikely_ voters to turn out and vote for him. I.e., Beto needs people who do not show up in a LV poll, probably coupled with a reduced amount of traditional GOP voters who show up for Cruz. Not impossible, but unlikely. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2018, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/691 "2018-10-13T14:39:45Z")
Some Democrats are [pissy](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/12/us/politics/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-poll.html)about Beto’s fundraising success and they’re saying Beto should share some of his candy with Dems running in states where the trick-or-treating has been bad. Even though Beto went to every county in the state (there are 254) and raised that money from individual donations. Oh yeah? I say he should hang on to the money-- he will need it when he runs for president. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2018, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/692 "2018-10-13T14:54:42Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Some Democrats are [pissy](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/12/us/politics/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-poll.html)about Beto’s fundraising success and they’re saying Beto should share some of his candy with Dems running in states where the trick-or-treating has been bad. Even though Beto went to every county in the state (there are 254) and raised that money from individual donations. Oh yeah? I say he should hang on to the money-- he will need it when he runs for president. Okay. That was bitchy. It’s in everyone’s interest to get Democrats elected. So he probably should share some. I guess. As long as it doesn’t hurt his chances in Texas. I asked in a thread somewhere if money is THE deciding factor in getting elected, and the consensus was that it wasn’t THE one thing, but it is certainly the score card. Next to the most important score card: votes. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2018, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/693 "2018-10-13T16:52:25Z")
It’s his money, Texas is a big, expensive state to run in, and he has a real chance of dislodging the odious TC. I don’t begrudge him a penny. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2018, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/694 "2018-10-13T18:49:30Z")
IF Beto was **way** ahead and had no need for the dollars then sure - spread the largesse. Passing money donated to the cause of helping HIM beat CRUZ to others who the donors had no specific intent to help instead of helping fund the possibility of his upset win, long shot though it may be? Damn I’d be pissed if I had donated specifically to that cause and he did that. ---
**Author:** ![filmore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7993a0/32.png) [@filmore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmore)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2018, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/695 "2018-10-13T18:51:07Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Okay. That was bitchy. It’s in everyone’s interest to get Democrats elected. So he probably should share some. I guess. As long as it doesn’t hurt his chances in Texas. There’s a fair chance he won’t win. The polling is not going in his favor. If he shared the money and lost, there would always be doubts he could have used the money to win. One reason he could be doing poorly in the polls is because the young, energized supporters he has don’t answer calls from unknown numbers to take the polls in the first place. Of course, the young voters often don’t show up, so maybe it evens out. I sure hope they decide to show up this year (and all the years from now on). ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2018, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/696 "2018-10-13T22:54:30Z")
> [@filmore](#): > > There’s a fair chance he won’t win. The polling is not going in his favor. If he shared the money and lost, there would always be doubts he could have used the money to win. > > One reason he could be doing poorly in the polls is because the young, energized supporters he has don’t answer calls from unknown numbers to take the polls in the first place. Of course, the young voters often don’t show up, so maybe it evens out. I sure hope they decide to show up this year (and all the years from now on). Don’t pollsters often rely on landline phones when they call to do their surveys? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2018, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/697 "2018-10-14T01:12:41Z")
> [@filmore](#): > > … One reason he could be doing poorly in the polls is because the young, energized supporters he has don’t answer calls from unknown numbers to take the polls in the first place. Of course, the young voters often don’t show up, so maybe it evens out. I sure hope they decide to show up this year (and all the years from now on). The general technique is to normalize the responses to offset those who don’t answer, to more properly weight the totals. But of course that does not help if there is a selection bias within the demographic being weighted. > [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > Don’t pollsters often rely on landline phones when they call to do their surveys? Many now do combination of landline and cell and some also internet. The recent [Qunnipiac](https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2578) poll of the race used both landline and cell for example. ---
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2018, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/698 "2018-10-14T01:16:33Z")
Another reason to spend the money in Texas is that he’s going to help flip the house. Even if he doesn’t drum up enough enthusiasm to win, I feel like there’s a good change that mid-term turnout for Democratic voters is going to be higher than it would be usually–and that’s critical. For instance, Pete Sessions (Texas-32) didn’t even face a challenger in 2016, and now he’s neck-and-neck with Colin Allred. Texas-32 has been trending bluer for some time, and Allred has also been running a good campaign (and is a good candidate) but if he wins, it won’t be by much, and it’s not going to hurt at all to have Beto fanning general enthusiasm. ---
**Author:** ![romansperson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/romansperson/32/17100_2.png) [@romansperson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/romansperson)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2018, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/699 "2018-10-14T01:48:41Z")
I heard an analyst on BBC America a couple of days ago say that Beto’s campaign hasn’t made much inroads with Latinos in Texas. At this point it’s probably too late to do anything differently, but does anyone in Texas know anything about this issue? I know in places like Florida, Latinos are split between Cuban-Americans (who tend to be conservative) and others from Mexico and Central America, which makes things a bit more complicated … what is the picture for Latinos in Texas (I would assume those folks would mainly be Mexicans and Central Americans, but I don’t know where they fall in the political spectrum or how many of them vote). ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2018, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/700 "2018-10-14T01:55:44Z")
Define “made inroads”. Are we comparing how well he’s doing with them now to how well he was doing with them before, or to how well other Democrats were doing with them before, or to how well Democrats do in Texas in general? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=34) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=36)