# Does Beto O'Rourke have a chance to oust Ted Cruz? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 2, 2018, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987 "2018-02-02T00:12:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 38
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2018, 11:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/741 "2018-10-23T11:39:39Z")
Re attendance at thump’s [“I heart Ted” rally](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/10/trumps-rally-ted-cruz-houston/573667/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheAtlantic+%28The+Atlantic+-+Master+Feed%29): > [@](#): > > …Trump’s reelection campaign, which produces these rallies, said there had been 100,000 requests for tickets, but Houston Police Chief Art Acevedo said on Twitter that there were 18,000 to 19,000 attendees inside and 3,000 or so outside. Reporters inside the Toyota Center noted empty seats. Nonetheless, Trump boasted that the rally had broken a record. … He seriously cannot open his mouth without uttering a lie. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2018, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/742 "2018-10-23T14:15:37Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Gertrude Stein is alleged to have said that Houston has the attitude of Oakland and the climate of Calcutta. That’s not a bad line, so I kinda doubt it. Maj. Gen. Phil Sheridan, assigned to Reconstruction duties in Texas after the Civil War, is said to have remarked, “If I owned both Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2018, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/743 "2018-10-23T22:41:48Z")
[**Cruz jokes about locking up Beto O’Rourke in ‘double-occupancy cell’ with Clinton**](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/412826-cruz-jokes-about-locking-up-beto-orourke-in-double-occupancy-cell-with) > [@](#): > > Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) joked at a campaign rally that his opponent in the state’s Senate race, Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D), could join 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in a “double-occupancy” prison cell. > > The senator responded with the jab at Clinton to a rally audience member’s call to “lock him up!”, reportedly referring to O’Rourke, according to multiple reports. > > “Well, you know, there’s a double-occupancy cell with Hillary Clinton,” Cruz said at a rally in Georgetown, Texas, north of Austin, alongside fellow Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). > … I would vote for pond scum for Senator before I would vote for this piece of crap. And the people who are swallowing this… the word \*deplorable \*is too good for them. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2018, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/744 "2018-10-24T02:46:44Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Re attendance at thump’s [“I heart Ted” rally](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/10/trumps-rally-ted-cruz-houston/573667/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheAtlantic+%28The+Atlantic+-+Master+Feed%29): He seriously cannot open his mouth without uttering a lie. Probably could have chosen better than to hold it in a city that elected a lesbian mayor not too long ago. I would have recommended Dothan. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2018, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/745 "2018-10-24T03:10:33Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > Probably could have chosen better than to hold it in a city that elected a lesbian mayor not too long ago. I would have recommended Dothan. Geography is vewwy vewwy hard! From the article I cited (warning-the article might make you throw up): > [@](#): > > … There was a strange, and coolly received, riff about Hurricane Harvey. (The president continues to believe, for some reason, that people went out in pleasure craft to enjoy the storm; he also complained that the storm was expensive, and “I’m paying for it.”) … He’s paying for it?? WTF?? Doofus with a capital D. ETA: The seating capacity of the Toyota Center is !8,000-ish, so it was virtually full. Why didn’t he have the rally at Kyle Field, which seats 102,000? That way EVERYONE could have gotten in. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2018, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/746 "2018-10-24T03:49:52Z")
That would be "18,000-ish. " ---
**Author:** ![Grrr](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grrr/32/146_2.png) [@Grrr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grrr)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2018, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/747 "2018-10-24T04:06:51Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > That would be "18,000-ish. " Thanks for clearing that up, or else I would have never figured that out. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Tangent](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tangent/32/3098_2.png) [@Tangent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tangent)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2018, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/748 "2018-10-24T05:34:06Z")
I am seeing a ton of Cruz television ads attacking Beto, mostly scaremongering using the immigration issue. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2018, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/749 "2018-10-24T07:24:05Z")
> [@Grrr](#): > > Thanks for clearing that up, or else I would have never figured that out. 😃 I’m thinking of my Permanent Record Card. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2018, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/750 "2018-10-24T16:39:31Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Geography is vewwy vewwy hard! > > From the article I cited (warning-the article might make you throw up): He’s paying for it?? WTF?? Doofus with a capital D. > > ETA: The seating capacity of the Toyota Center is !8,000-ish, so it was virtually full. Why didn’t he have the rally at Kyle Field, which seats 102,000? That way EVERYONE could have gotten in. Well, he said he’d get the biggest stadium in Texas, not just in that part of it. It’s often forgotten, I guess because people don’t think of it as a stadium though it absolutely is, but the biggest stadium in Texas is actually the Texas Motor Speedway, which can seat 190,000 people for a race and, given that you could configure the track and infield with temporary seating, could probably host many more for one of his Nuremberg-style rallies. I wonder why he didn’t go there. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2018, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/751 "2018-10-24T16:55:38Z")
> [@Tangent](#): > > I am seeing a ton of Cruz television ads attacking Beto, mostly scaremongering using the immigration issue. Ted does realize that his father is from Cuba right? ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2018, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/752 "2018-10-24T16:59:27Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > [**Cruz jokes about locking up Beto O’Rourke in ‘double-occupancy cell’ with Clinton**](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/412826-cruz-jokes-about-locking-up-beto-orourke-in-double-occupancy-cell-with)I would vote for pond scum for Senator before I would vote for this piece of crap. > > And the people who are swallowing this… the word \*deplorable \*is too good for them. I read this yesterday, and initially blew it off as just another piece of shit thing a Republican says on the campaign trail. But it’s really sticking in my craw. I can’t shake the feeling that when a sitting Senator advocates for locking up his political enemies, well, that crosses a whole new line of fascist behavior from the GOP. I don’t care if it was just a political campaign rally. It goes too far, and I wish the media was calling this speech out more for its deplorableness. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2018, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/753 "2018-10-24T17:10:40Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Well, he said he’d get the biggest stadium in Texas, not just in that part of it. It’s often forgotten, I guess because people don’t think of it as a stadium though it absolutely is, but the biggest stadium in Texas is actually the Texas Motor Speedway, which can seat 190,000 people for a race and, given that you could configure the track and infield with temporary seating, could probably host many more for one of his Nuremberg-style rallies. > > I wonder why he didn’t go there. He’s afraid of losing support because the drivers tend to go left. ---
**Author:** ![Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambrosio_Spinola)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2018, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/754 "2018-10-24T17:17:43Z")
Gonna quote myself from way back in this thread: > [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](#): > > Yes, if the same number of Republicans voted in the general election for Senate as voted for John Cornyn in 2014, the Democrats would need to have almost twice as many votes as _they_ got in that election to win, which is . . . sort of difficult to imagine. Anyhow it turns out that I may need to adjust my imagination since the early voting numbers are [looking more like 2008/2012 than 2014](https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2018/general-election-early-voting/?_ga=2.154693232.99861813.1540392349-1422831228.1540392349) and as such Beto is likely to get those extra 1.5 million votes. But of course the increased turnout means more votes for Cruz as well. I still find it hard to believe that Beto can pull it out but if he’s going to have any chance at all he’s going to need the turnout we’re seeing in Texas’ big counties. ---
**Author:** ![CoolHandCox](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coolhandcox/32/16233_2.png) [@CoolHandCox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CoolHandCox)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2018, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/755 "2018-10-24T20:08:58Z")
Two thoughts, not sure what it means: 1. Anecdotally around Harris County (Houston and suburbs), the lines at the polls have been very long since early voting began a few days ago. Mon, Tue, Wed - long lines, all day. 2. This might show my ignorance on polling, but the poll has to assume the person being polled is telling the truth, right? For example, if I’m polled a month ago/yesterday, of course I’d say I’m a lock to go vote for person X. But then life, the Astros are playing, I don’t go vote (because I was never that committed, I just thought it sounded like something I should say); or I’m a secret Republican/Democrat so I say I’m a lock for X, but then secretly go vote for Y. Does the margin or error account for all that? ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2018, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/756 "2018-10-24T20:37:58Z")
> [@Tangent](#): > > I am seeing a ton of Cruz television ads attacking Beto, mostly scaremongering using the immigration issue. “There is no such thing as bad publicity”. In my area, we have a race for a vacated House seat, and we are getting buried in negative ads. I think the D side is being incredibly stupid to put the R’s name and face front-and-center (when _everyone in the whole fucking state has already heard of him_), because a lot of people will look at their ballots and see the name they have been seeing for months and mark that box. Beto is playing the right game, “_it’s about **me** , not about him_”, and it might, possibly, even work. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2018, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/757 "2018-10-24T20:38:47Z")
> [@CoolHandCox](#): > > 1. This might show my ignorance on polling, but the poll has to assume the person being polled is telling the truth, right? For example, if I’m polled a month ago/yesterday, of course I’d say I’m a lock to go vote for person X. But then life, the Astros are playing, I don’t go vote (because I was never that committed, I just thought it sounded like something I should say); or I’m a secret Republican/Democrat so I say I’m a lock for X, but then secretly go vote for Y. Does the margin or error account for all that? That’s two concepts. The first is about what they call “likely voter screening”, which is very much an art that varies between pollsters and the methods used can really change the accuracy of a poll. The last is more background noise like people who accidentally answered wrong which could contribute to any error but generally there’s no reason to assume one side would do it more than the other. But margin of error is pure stats math about sampling ie who you chose to give the poll to. How similar to the general population was your polling group. > **[5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls/)** > > Some statistical rules of thumb that smart consumers might think apply in polls are more nuanced than they seem. As is often true in life, it’s complicated. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/758 "2018-10-25T22:23:58Z")
> [@Tangent](#): > > I am seeing a ton of Cruz television ads attacking Beto, mostly scaremongering using the immigration issue. We need to send all those Canadians back to Calgary. ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/759 "2018-10-25T23:33:30Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > We need to send all those Canadians back to Calgary. No no no. You took him, you have to keep him!!! We should have made that a clause in NAFTA 2.0. Sent from my SM-G930W8 using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2018, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/760 "2018-10-26T01:16:00Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > No no no. You took him, you have to keep him!!! We should have made that a clause in NAFTA 2.0. They say that Alberta is the Texas of Canada. I would be more comfortable, though, if he ended up in YK. Or maybe Iqaluit. You know, far away from here. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=37) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=39)