# Does Beto O'Rourke have a chance to oust Ted Cruz? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 2, 2018, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987 "2018-02-02T00:12:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 41
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 7:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/801 "2018-10-31T07:43:21Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > As a former Texan, please expand on your expert opinion. How thin is too thin a margin? Hard to pass by such a warm and genial invitation. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2018, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/802 "2018-11-01T17:47:02Z")
[More on Texas early voting:](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/dems-see-some-good-signs-in-booming-early-vote-numbers) > [@](#): > > More than 200,000 first-time voters have already cast their ballots in Texas, nearly three times the raw number of new voters in the next-closest state, California, according to Bonier’s model. > > At this point in 2014, voters under age 40, who lean Democratic, made up just 11 percent of the Texas early vote, while those over age 65 made up fully 47 percent of the electorate. That’s shifted dramatically: Voters under 40 are currently accounting for 21 percent of the electorate, and voters over 65 are down to 34 percent of the electorate. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2018, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/803 "2018-11-01T18:17:32Z")
I still doubt it’ll be enough to do more than make things closer than expected in the Senate race on Tuesday night (I’d love to be wrong!), but the turnout numbers might help some Dem House and state legislature candidates to victory that otherwise wouldn’t have won. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2018, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/804 "2018-11-01T18:26:34Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I still doubt it’ll be enough to do more than make things closer than expected in the Senate race on Tuesday night (I’d love to be wrong!), but the turnout numbers might help some Dem House and state legislature candidates to victory that otherwise wouldn’t have won. I agree with you. I hope that we are both wrong. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2018, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/805 "2018-11-01T18:35:55Z")
Yeah, let us not have our optimism leavened with false hope, for when it lies crushed and bled out on Wednesday, the dismay will be all the more palpable. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2018, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/806 "2018-11-01T20:25:21Z")
If those turnout numbers hold on Tuesday, as well, then I’d actually say that O’Rourke is favored to win. But that’s a very big if. It might be, for instance, that a large number of young voters who would otherwise have shown up on Election Day are now voting early instead, in which case their election-day share would actually be decreased. If nothing else, a bunch of political science grad students are going to be able to get theses out of whatever happens. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2018, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/807 "2018-11-01T20:52:45Z")
Michael McDonald on Twitter is reporting that in Texas the early vote total so far in 2018 is larger than the total number of votes (early vote and election day) for 2014. > ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2018, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/808 "2018-11-01T20:54:31Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > Yeah, let us not have our optimism leavened with false hope, for when it lies crushed and bled out on Wednesday, the dismay will be all the more palpable. I was talking to my neighbor about this–the neighbor’s house where we watched the presidential election returns–and we both decided that we’re going to go to bed and read about it in the morning. We can’t take the “death by a thousand paper cuts” again. ---
**Author:** ![Grrr](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grrr/32/146_2.png) [@Grrr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grrr)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2018, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/809 "2018-11-01T21:00:05Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Michael McDonald on Twitter is reporting that in Texas the early vote total so far in 2018 is larger than the total number of votes (early vote and election day) for 2014. > > [https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1058089144470126594](https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1058089144470126594) The last graphic I looked at had the same numbers as 2016. Now THAT’s impressive! ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2018, 7:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/810 "2018-11-02T07:27:35Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Michael McDonald on Twitter is reporting that in Texas the early vote total so far in 2018 is larger than the total number of votes (early vote and election day) for 2014. > > [https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1058089144470126594](https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1058089144470126594) With the caveat that that’s ‘just’ the 30 largest counties, because they don’t report the early voting totals statewide, just in those 30 counties. BUT those 30 counties currently have 78.6% of the registered voters, and typically 75-80% of the statewide vote comes from those counties. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2018, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/811 "2018-11-06T16:40:28Z")
Triumph the Insult Comic Dog weighs in: [Triumph The Insult Comic Dog hits Sen. Ted Cruz with an absolutely savage burn](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2018/11/06/triumph-the-insult-comic-dog-hits-sen-ted-cruz-with-an-absolutely-savage-burn/23581608/) ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2018, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/812 "2018-11-06T16:44:05Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Triumph the Insult Comic Dog weighs in: [Triumph The Insult Comic Dog hits Sen. Ted Cruz with an absolutely savage burn](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2018/11/06/triumph-the-insult-comic-dog-hits-sen-ted-cruz-with-an-absolutely-savage-burn/23581608/) > [@](#): > > Triumph replied [to Cruz] with a burn that might’ve left a scar. > > “I support spaying and neutering, just like Trump did to you,” the puppet shot back. :eek: :D:p Wow. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2018, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/813 "2018-11-06T16:50:10Z")
That had to hurt. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2018, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/814 "2018-11-06T17:06:39Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Triumph the Insult Comic Dog weighs in: [Triumph The Insult Comic Dog hits Sen. Ted Cruz with an absolutely savage burn](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2018/11/06/triumph-the-insult-comic-dog-hits-sen-ted-cruz-with-an-absolutely-savage-burn/23581608/) Years from now, when the country lies in ruins, I’ll look back and say “[at least we got this out of the 2018 election](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJ8VV6TqeXI)” 😛 (that’s the video, eh) ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2018, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/815 "2018-11-06T17:09:37Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > With the caveat that that’s ‘just’ the 30 largest counties, because they don’t report the early voting totals statewide, just in those 30 counties. > > BUT those 30 counties currently have 78.6% of the registered voters, and typically 75-80% of the statewide vote comes from those counties. Texas has an impressively large number of counties. Many of them have very few residents, except for the owners of and workers on the ranch in that county. Not shocked at these stats. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2018, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/816 "2018-11-06T17:29:26Z")
And apparently ad-libbed, too, given that he was responding to a straight line Cruz himself fed him. Unless they arranged it beforehand, and Cruz was stupid enough to go along. Which, given his previous campaigning for O’Rourke, can’t be ruled out as a possibility. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2018, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/817 "2018-11-06T17:30:16Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Years from now, when the country lies in ruins, I’ll look back and say “[at least we got this out of the 2018 election](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJ8VV6TqeXI)” 😛 (that’s the video, eh) That “Lion of the Senate” bit at the end was most clever. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chockfullofheadygoodness/32/511_2.png) [@ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2018, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/818 "2018-11-06T17:32:12Z")
I saw my first Beto lawn sign this weekend… …in Southern California. (The same lawn also had several signs for local Democrats) ---
**Author:** ![Clawdio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d07c76/32.png) [@Clawdio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Clawdio)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2018, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/819 "2018-11-06T19:29:12Z")
I won’t believe higher turn-out until we have the final tally. There’s been a lot of talk about early voting numbers, but it seems to me that (where i live anyway) early voting is WAY more accessible than in years past, and I worry that we’ll end up with the same turn-out, just more voting early than before. I hope I’m wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Grrr](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grrr/32/146_2.png) [@Grrr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grrr)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2018, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/820 "2018-11-06T20:02:35Z")
> [@ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness](#): > > I saw my first Beto lawn sign this weekend… > > …in Southern California. > > (The same lawn also had several signs for local Democrats) A (Facebook)friend of mine in NC took a snapshot photo of her neighbor with a Beto sign on her lawn. Seriously, if this guy loses, he needs to run for President. He’s young, likable, and just what the Dem party needs. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=40) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=42)