# Does Beto O'Rourke have a chance to oust Ted Cruz? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 2, 2018, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987 "2018-02-02T00:12:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 42
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2018, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/821 "2018-11-06T22:16:27Z")
> [@Clawdio](#): > > I won’t believe higher turn-out until we have the final tally. There’s been a lot of talk about early voting numbers, but it seems to me that (where i live anyway) early voting is WAY more accessible than in years past, and I worry that we’ll end up with the same turn-out, just more voting early than before. I hope I’m wrong. I believe the Texas early vote in 2018 has already surpassed the total vote (early and election day) from 2014. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/822 "2018-11-07T01:30:41Z")
It’s looking good for Beto so far. According to the CNN map the votes in Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and El Paso haven’t even started to be counted, and Beto is still ahead. Cruz areas that are still outstanding and of larger population are mainly in east Texas and the hill country. Beto areas that have already come in are in Dallas and parts of the Rio Grande Valley, while Cruz areas that have come in are in the panhandle and the areas between Houston and Austin such as College Station. It’s going to be a long night, but things still look pretty good for Beto IMHO. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/823 "2018-11-07T01:49:16Z")
Ex-Canadian trailing! Those Texans. They turn on the foreign-born. 😉 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/824 "2018-11-07T03:14:46Z")
NBC called Texas for Cruz while their reporter was telling everyone O’Rourke’s campaign was optimistic about the vote from Harris County. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/825 "2018-11-07T03:21:15Z")
Beto 2020! ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/826 "2018-11-07T03:22:24Z")
CNN hasn’t called it yet which is what I am watching. What a shame. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/827 "2018-11-07T03:23:04Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > NBC called Texas for Cruz while their reporter was telling everyone O’Rourke’s campaign was optimistic about the vote from Harris County. CNN has Harris county at only 16% reporting, but that is obviously not correct based on the total number of votes already counted. As I noted earlier this will be a roller coaster night and at this point the train is on the low part of the tracks :(. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/828 "2018-11-07T03:26:08Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > CNN hasn’t called it yet which is what I am watching. What a shame. > [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > CNN has Harris county at only 16% reporting, but that is obviously not correct based on the total number of votes already counted. As I noted earlier this will be a roller coaster night and at this point the train is on the low part of the tracks :(. Yeah, I’m not really understanding why NBC made the call for Cruz. There must be an issue with the updates of the vote available on line because the most of the Harris County vote I can find is 26% and NBC/MSNBC are saying something like 82% of the statewide vote is in. Doesn’t really make sense to me. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/829 "2018-11-07T03:29:20Z")
CNN calls it for Cruz. And that makes it 50 minimum for sure GOP Senators. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/830 "2018-11-07T03:36:05Z")
The GOP is going to gain a couple of seats. That means that the couple of moderates can’t use their vote to try to force a change of any kind. We better pray for the health of all of the liberal Supreme Court Justices. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/831 "2018-11-07T03:45:14Z")
How can they call it so early when only 30% of the vote is in? ---
**Author:** ![jasg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f0a364/32.png) [@jasg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jasg)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/832 "2018-11-07T04:00:33Z")
PopeHat just tweeted “Ted Cruz will continue to be the least liked Senator for six years.” ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/833 "2018-11-07T14:41:53Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > The GOP is going to gain a couple of seats. That means that the couple of moderates can’t use their vote to try to force a change of any kind. We better pray for the health of all of the liberal Supreme Court Justices. The biggest winner of the night is probably Susan Collins. She doesn’t have to play Hamlet anymore over every contentious nominee. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/834 "2018-11-07T14:48:58Z")
The Beto loss may sting, but there is good news for Democrats in Texas. Aside of taking out Sessions and Culberson, Dems flipped a couple of state Senate seats and will pick up about a dozen state House seats. Still very comfortable Republican majorities, but progress. The result does make the Democratic bungling in the SD-19 special election more painful, since if they had won that they would be able to deny state Senate Republicans the 3/5 majority they need to bring legislation to the floor. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/835 "2018-11-07T15:13:36Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > How can they call it so early when only 30% of the vote is in? Because that is a huge data sample. As long as you know the mix of precincts reporting, the odds that millions of votes will be dissimilar from other millions of votes is basically zero. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/836 "2018-11-07T15:39:16Z")
Beto certainly gave Cruz a run for his money. The difference in the final totals was only 217,000 votes. Cruz 4,233,301 Beto 4,016,244 ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/837 "2018-11-07T15:45:05Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Because that is a huge data sample. As long as you know the mix of precincts reporting, the odds that millions of votes will be dissimilar from other millions of votes is basically zero. Yes but this race was known to be close. I think it would be good for there to be an unofficial rule that no close race should be called until at least 90% is in, no matter what the sample mix may show. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/838 "2018-11-07T15:47:24Z")
Yeah, and CNN made much of the fact that the Beto Factor boosted Dem turnout across the state and helped in a number of races. He ran a good race, raised a truckload of cash and did much better than anyone remotely expected when he began his campaign. Let the presidential buzz begin! ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/839 "2018-11-07T16:49:08Z")
Since the final totals were so close, any chance of a recount? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/840 "2018-11-07T17:10:18Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Since the final totals were so close, any chance of a recount? From what I looked up before it’s in legal recount territory: > [@CarnalK](#): > > It looks like you need to be within 10% of the other guy’s vote total to be allowed to request a recount. By my calculation, discounting 3rd party votes, that means a win with 52.6% of the vote. > [Procedures to Request and Conduct a Recount](https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/laws/recounts.shtml) But, imho, it’s not within a realistic window of flipping the result so I doubt Beto goes for it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=41) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=43)