# Does Beto O'Rourke have a chance to oust Ted Cruz? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 2, 2018, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987 "2018-02-02T00:12:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2018, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/101 "2018-02-17T01:51:02Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Actually, I was referring to boldly and loudly proclaiming an assertion, providing no evidence for it, and then coming up with some rationalization for not providing evidence when asked, a tactic that **Shodan** has used multiple times. You definitely Johnny Aced that moderator instruction. Johnny Aced it like crazy. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2018, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/102 "2018-02-17T02:41:27Z")
> [@Bone](#): > > What does this even mean? I’m going to assume when you say “pulled a Shodan” that you mean, respond with clarity and rapier wit. Otherwise this is just being a jerk. If you want to make an argument, do so. Cut out this tip toeing effort to see how much you can get away with. > > [/moderating] > [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Actually, I was referring to boldly and loudly proclaiming an assertion, providing no evidence for it, and then coming up with some rationalization for not providing evidence when asked, a tactic that **Shodan** has used multiple times. > [@CarnalK](#): > > You definitely Johnny Aced that moderator instruction. Johnny Aced it like crazy. All right, that was damned funny. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2018, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/103 "2018-02-17T03:50:16Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Actually, I was referring to boldly and loudly proclaiming an assertion, providing no evidence for it, and then coming up with some rationalization for not providing evidence when asked, a tactic that **Shodan** has used multiple times. Da Fuk? Who told you it is my job to provide evidence when you make an assertion? If you want to engage in insults, I’ll happily do that in the pit. I mentioned how Hillary got 600,000 more votes than Obama did in 2012. You said. > [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > You know what happens when you assume. You don’t think it might have had anything to do with the fact that Trump is a piece of shit who did just about everything he possibly could to insult the Hispanic community? I responded by pointing out that according to national exit polls. Hillary did worse among Latinos than Obama did. Your assumption that Trump energized the latino community against him is false. So no, latinos jumping on the Hillary bandwagon wasn’t why she gained 600,000 votes in Texas, assuming Texas followed national trends. I don’t know where the 600,000 extra votes in Texas came from. I know democrats have been trying to register voters there, that is probably part of it combined with growth in interstate immigrants and millennial voters. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2018, 8:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/104 "2018-02-17T08:11:32Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Da Fuk? Who told you it is my job to provide evidence when you make an assertion? > > If you want to engage in insults, I’ll happily do that in the pit. > > I mentioned how Hillary got 600,000 more votes than Obama did in 2012. You said. > > I responded by pointing out that according to national exit polls. Hillary did worse among Latinos than Obama did. Your assumption that Trump energized the latino community against him is false. So no, latinos jumping on the Hillary bandwagon wasn’t why she gained 600,000 votes in Texas, assuming Texas followed national trends. > > I don’t know where the 600,000 extra votes in Texas came from. I know democrats have been trying to register voters there, that is probably part of it combined with growth in interstate immigrants and millennial voters. Here is my exact quote, and my ONLY quote in response to you until you decided you needed to attack: [QUOTE=Johnny Ace] You know what happens when you assume. You don’t think it might have had anything to do with the fact that Trump is a piece of shit who did just about everything he possibly could to insult the Hispanic community? [/QUOTE] That’s it. Then you asked me to find out how many states there were with vote shifts that have large latino populations. To quote you, Da Fuk? Not my yob, senor. You want evidence to support your own point, find it yourself. I’m not your servant, whatever you appear to think. ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2018, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/105 "2018-02-17T18:19:54Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Actually, I was referring to boldly and loudly proclaiming an assertion, providing no evidence for it, and then coming up with some rationalization for not providing evidence when asked, a tactic that **Shodan** has used multiple times. Ok, then let me be clear. If you want to make a point, then make it. Do not do this or any variant of this name substitution again. [/moderating] ---
**Author:** ![Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambrosio_Spinola)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2018, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/106 "2018-02-18T16:34:49Z")
In a somewhat surprising move, the major Dallas newspaper [endorsed one of Cruz’s opponents in the Republican primary](https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/2018/02/16/recommend-stefano-de-stefano-ted-cruz-gop-primary-us-senate). (This paper is far from a liberal bastion - but they’re more Country Club Republican than Tea Party Republican.) This will do zilch to keep Cruz from winning the nomination, but it does illustrate that there are a lot of Cruz _voters_ who aren’t Cruz _supporters_ exactly. If enough of them stay home, anything could happen. Probably won’t, but it never hurts to try. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2018, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/107 "2018-02-18T22:06:32Z")
> [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](#): > > In a somewhat surprising move, the major Dallas newspaper [endorsed one of Cruz’s opponents in the Republican primary](https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/2018/02/16/recommend-stefano-de-stefano-ted-cruz-gop-primary-us-senate). (This paper is far from a liberal bastion - but they’re more Country Club Republican than Tea Party Republican.) > > This will do zilch to keep Cruz from winning the nomination, but it does illustrate that there are a lot of Cruz _voters_ who aren’t Cruz _supporters_ exactly. If enough of them stay home, anything could happen. Probably won’t, but it never hurts to try. Yeah, he’s the guy I mentioned last page. He looks like the only reasonable alternative on the GOP side. As I also mentioned he’s got an albatross around his neck as far as the GOP race, he was a registered Dem when he lived in New York. I guess that’s two albatrosses. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2018, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/108 "2018-02-18T23:55:54Z")
> [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](#): > > In a somewhat surprising move, the major Dallas newspaper [endorsed one of Cruz’s opponents in the Republican primary](https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/2018/02/16/recommend-stefano-de-stefano-ted-cruz-gop-primary-us-senate). (This paper is far from a liberal bastion - but they’re more Country Club Republican than Tea Party Republican.) > > This will do zilch to keep Cruz from winning the nomination, but it does illustrate that there are a lot of Cruz _voters_ who aren’t Cruz _supporters_ exactly. If enough of them stay home, anything could happen. Probably won’t, but it never hurts to try. Seems to be a regularity in the Republican party lately. They don’t have to like him, he just has to not have a (D) after his name. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2018, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/109 "2018-02-19T00:26:02Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Seems to be a regularity in the Republican party lately. They don’t have to like him, he just has to not have a (D) after his name. Insightful as always. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2018, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/110 "2018-02-19T02:43:57Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Insightful as always. :rolleyes: Enlightening as usual. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2018, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/111 "2018-02-20T20:56:41Z")
[University of Texas / Texas Tribune Poll](https://static.texastribune.org/media/documents/ut-tt-2018-02-summary-1.pdf) Not a head to head poll, but primary voting and some other questions put to Texas voters that may be of interest. I’ll summarize my thoughts here but complete data can found in the link. (Q19, Q20) Both O’Rourke (73%) and Cruz (91%!) are crushing it in the primary and both look to be avoiding a run-off with ease. Some races for other offices might be headed to run-off (i.e. D-governor), but the senate race seems to be playing out without any additional drama. (Q9a, Q9b) Ted Cruz is -1 in job approval, but he’s killing it compared to John Cornyn who is -9. (Q28, Q29) Ted Cruz is -1 in favorable rating compared to Beto O’Rourke checking in at +15. However, Ted Cruz is much more widely known and it is pretty likely that the people who know who Beto is have a pro-Beto bias. Thus, while this is promising, it’s probably not an apples to apples comparison at this point. (Q26a, Q26b) Generic house ballot and generic state legislature ballot are both R+3 which is closer than I would have guessed. Lots of no opinion in both. (Q30, Q31) The Republican Party has a net favorability of -2 in Texas while the Democratic Party is doing slightly better at -1. Surprising? Until a D wins a state wide race, blue Texas can’t be anything other than a stretch goal, but those last two questions make me think that it’s not impossible. **CarnalK** , has anyone asked you to hold your breath recently? ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2018, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/112 "2018-02-21T04:02:06Z")
The Lone Star Long Shot Who Wants to Topple Ted Cruz > **[The Lone Star Long Shot Who Wants to Topple Ted Cruz (Published 2018)](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/19/us/politics/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-election.html)** > > Representative Beto O’Rourke is making a long-shot bid to defeat Ted Cruz and become the first Democrat in Texas to win a statewide office since 1994. Beto O’Rourke in the New York Times- good article > [@](#): > > … > His theory of the case is that he can make the sale in rural Texas in part simply by showing up. If he can cut down Mr. Cruz’s margins there and generate energy in urban precincts and suburbs, he can become the first Democrat since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988 to win a Texas Senate seat. > > Democrats in Texas have long been saying that the demographic changes sweeping the state, fueled by a surge in the Latino population, would eventually make the state two-party competitive, but even some of the more optimistic forecasts don’t have that happening until 2024. Still, there are other factors at work that add to their hopes. The number of college-educated residents in the state increased by 20 percent from 2006 to 2016, according to Lloyd Potter, the Texas state demographer. Rural areas are losing population while urban and suburban areas are gaining. > > But President Trump, who carried the state by nine percentage points, is complicating conventional analysis. “All things being equal, if there wasn’t a Trump, it would be in the mid 2020s until the state would get competitive,” said Russ Tidwell, a Democratic consultant who has worked in the state for decades. “But Trump makes other things possible.” > > And Mr. O’Rourke’s campaign is all about a sense of the possible. > … ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2018, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/113 "2018-02-21T16:35:03Z")
I think the Times is right, it’s still too soon for a Dem to win a Senate seat in Texas, though far from too soon for Texas Republicans to start worrying about the increasing urbanity of the state’s electorate. Donald Trump is unquestionably toxic for Republicans but I don’t know if even he is toxic enough for a Beto win. Still, it’s a start and it would be nice to see campaign money start to flow into the state and see if the GOP’s biggest cornerstone can at least be turned purple in decades to come. I just realized that I don’t know if “urbanity” is really a word. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2018, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/114 "2018-02-21T16:44:35Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > I just realized that I don’t know if “urbanity” is really a word. Google submits: > [@](#): > > ur·ban·i·ty > ˌərˈbanədē/ > noun > noun: urbanity > > ``` > 1. > suavity, courteousness, and refinement of manner. > 2. > urban life. > > ``` ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2018, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/115 "2018-02-22T17:11:34Z")
It’s probably too early to succeed, but it’s certainly not too early to try earnestly. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2018, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/116 "2018-02-27T14:15:16Z")
The Dallas Morning News: [Fueled by a Democratic surge, Texans turn out in force on first day of early voting](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/02/21/fueled-democratic-surge-texans-turn-force-first-day-early-voting) > [@](#): > > AUSTIN — Of the 51,249 Texans who cast ballots Tuesday on the first day of early voting, more than half voted in the Democratic primary. > > \ > > Since the last midterm election, the party saw a 51 percent increase in first-day early voting turnout, while Republicans saw a 16 percent increase. I gave Beto a 5% chance earlier in this thread. Now I’d say more like 15-20%. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2018, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/117 "2018-02-27T14:40:22Z")
I was under the impression that primary turnout isn’t a useful predictor for the main election. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2018, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/118 "2018-02-27T15:35:11Z")
What does it fail to predict? ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2018, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/119 "2018-02-27T15:39:55Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > What does it fail to predict? About ~5 million people will vote for senate in Texas in 2018, so saying ‘democrats are doing well among the first 50,000 votes’ is premature. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2018, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/120 "2018-02-27T15:43:05Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > What does it fail to predict? 😕 The results of the election. Eta: am I missing something? This is early voting for the primaries, right? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=7)