# Does Beto O'Rourke have a chance to oust Ted Cruz? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 2, 2018, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987 "2018-02-02T00:12:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2018, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/121 "2018-02-27T15:46:34Z")
šŸ˜• Iā€™m not getting the connection here. Iā€™m not saying Betoā€™s gonna win because more people voted in the Dem primary. If I were, what you say would be on point. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2018, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/122 "2018-02-27T15:47:34Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > About ~5 million people will vote for senate in Texas in 2018, so saying ā€˜democrats are doing well among the first 50,000 votesā€™ is premature. Premature for what? Premature for being a data point? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2018, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/123 "2018-02-27T15:48:27Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > šŸ˜• Iā€™m not getting the connection here. Iā€™m not saying Betoā€™s gonna win because more people voted in the Dem primary. If I were, what you say would be on point. You raised his odds because of it though is what it looked like. If you were just coincidentally mentioning the early voting and his odds changing in your post, ok then. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2018, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/124 "2018-02-27T15:55:40Z")
Just to be clear, what I _am_ saying is that this is an indication that the heightened intensity and increased willingness to actually vote that Dem voters have shown in other states in 2017 is present in Texas in early 2018 as well. Iā€™m saying thatā€™s a positive sign for a Democratic candidate in Texas. Iā€™m saying that, despite that, Cruz is still the overwhelming favorite, but more like an 80-85% favorite rather than a 95% favorite. So Iā€™m saying that the party that did **better** in first-day primary turnout is still a **huge underdog** in the general election, which is why Iā€™m puzzled by CarnalKā€™s implication that Iā€™m using it as a predictor of the general election outcome. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2018, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/125 "2018-02-27T16:10:26Z")
Saying that it changes your estimation of the odds is using it a predictor of the general election outcome. The fact that your estimation of the odds still favors Cruz means that itā€™s not the only predictor youā€™re using, but youā€™re still using it. **CarnalK** is saying that you shouldnā€™t be using it as a predictor at all. ---
**Author:** ![Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambrosio_Spinola)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2018, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/126 "2018-02-27T17:29:09Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Saying that it changes your estimation of the odds is using it a predictor of the general election outcome. The fact that your estimation of the odds still favors Cruz means that itā€™s not the only predictor youā€™re using, but youā€™re still using it. **CarnalK** is saying that you shouldnā€™t be using it as a predictor at all. Iā€™m not sure how much of a predictor primary voting is, but there is something interesting and unusual going on with the early voting patterns. The [Texas Tribune](https://apps.texastribune.org/texas-elections-2018-primary-early-voting/) has some graphs about percentage of voters who voted early in this cycle, 2016 and 2014. Democratic participation is up (occasionally way up) in every major county except Hidalgo County, which is a Democratic stronghold anyway. And, very surprisingly, there are [more Democrats casting primary ballots than Republicans](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/02/26/texas-democrats-early-voting-totals-shock-every-conservative-core-abbott-email-says) (which never happens). Considering that the only way Democrats can win an election in Texas is that they get excited and show up in large numbers while many Republicans stay home, indications that this may be happening are significant. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2018, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/127 "2018-02-27T17:38:57Z")
But that is precisely using primary turnout as a predictor. > **[Primary Turnout Means Nothing For The General Election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/)** > > Republican turnout is up and Democratic turnout is down in the 2016 primary contests so far. That has some Republicans giddy for the fall; hereā€™s an example, frā€¦ But I guess that is enough raining on the parade for me. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2018, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/128 "2018-02-27T19:19:40Z")
[Senate Key Race alert: Texas is no longer Solid Republican](https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/27/politics/texas-senate-race-rating-likely-republican/index.html) CNN has moved this race from the ā€˜solid Republicanā€™ column to the ā€˜likely Republicanā€™ column for a variety of reasons (fundraising, Trump job approval, more at the link). ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2018, 9:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/129 "2018-02-28T09:13:48Z")
[Gov. Greg Abbottā€™s campaign says ā€œearly voting numbers should shock every conservative to their core.'ā€](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/02/26/texas-democrats-early-voting-totals-shock-every-conservative-core-abbott-email-says) It appears the campaign of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott(R) agrees with what RTFirefly was pointing out. My takeaway is - they are alerting those on the right that this trend must be met with force or they have a big problem. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2018, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/130 "2018-02-28T13:24:31Z")
I almost posted about the Abbott fundraising email yesterday, but then I thought about it and came to the conclusion that it doesnā€™t tell us one way or the other about how Texas Republicans really feel. Theyā€™ll fund raise on anything. Plus sending fundraising material like, ā€œEverything is going great, send us money,ā€ must get boring. A little scare email to mix things up is just what the doctor ordered. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2018, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/131 "2018-02-28T14:50:53Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > [Gov. Greg Abbottā€™s campaign says ā€œearly voting numbers should shock every conservative to their core.'ā€](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/02/26/texas-democrats-early-voting-totals-shock-every-conservative-core-abbott-email-says) > > It appears the campaign of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott(R) agrees with what RTFirefly was pointing out. My takeaway is - they are alerting those on the right that this trend must be met with force or they have a big problem. FWIW, hereā€™s the blog of the U of H prof that article quotes as saying thereā€™s a primary-general turnout relationship: > **[Inside Texas Politics Blog](http://www.brandonrottinghaus.com/inside-texas-politics-blog)** > > ā€‹In his first (and only) session as Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives (1911), Sam Rayburn ā€“ who would go on to a legendary career as Speaker of the U.S. House ā€“ helped create the... > [@](#): > > Democrats will be happy to learn that there is a relatively high correlation between cumulative three day early voting and vote share of the top of the ticket candidate in the subsequent November election ā€“ a .660 correlation overall.\* The effect is strongest for senate elections (correlation is .712) and presidential elections (correlation is .624) but relatively strong for gubernatorial elections (.595). I donā€™t know. I am no statistics guy but istm that 2008 is skewing the line on his graph. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2018, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/132 "2018-02-28T18:02:28Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > FWIW, hereā€™s the blog of the U of H prof that article quotes as saying thereā€™s a primary-general turnout relationship: > [Links - Inside Texas Politics Blog](http://www.brandonrottinghaus.com/inside-texas-politics-blog) > > I donā€™t know. I am no statistics guy but istm that 2008 is skewing the line on his graph. Correlation is a measure of variance. Any skewing would only reduce it. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2018, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/133 "2018-02-28T18:09:30Z")
Wut? I am saying thereā€™s only 8 points on the graph and that 2008 seems such an outlier it is pulling the averaging line kinda high. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2018, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/134 "2018-03-04T11:31:34Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Saying that it changes your estimation of the odds is using it a predictor of the general election outcome. The fact that your estimation of the odds still favors Cruz means that itā€™s not the only predictor youā€™re using, but youā€™re still using it. **CarnalK** is saying that you shouldnā€™t be using it as a predictor at all. Well, whatā€™s his argument precisely? What I hear him saying is that _which party turns out the most voters in the primary doesnā€™t correlate with which party turns out the most voters in the general election._ And Iā€™m willing to concede that without even looking at the numbers. But thatā€™s a simple 2x2 box correlation, comparing the outcome of two Y/N questions _within each election_. Iā€™m not going there. Iā€™m comparing _across years_. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2018, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/135 "2018-03-04T11:34:25Z")
Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report [thinks somethingā€™s up in Texas](https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/968249710359216131): > [@](#): > > Iā€™ve spent my career downplaying Demsā€™ odds in Texas, but thereā€™s something different going on there this cycle. Whether TXā€™s surprisingly anti-Trump mood means itā€™s winnable for @BetoORourkeā€¦canā€™t say yet. But it explains why a few House seats that have always been GOP slam dunks might not be in 2018. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2018, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/136 "2018-03-04T11:48:20Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > But that is precisely using primary turnout as a predictor. > > [Primary Turnout Means Nothing For The General Election | FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/) > > But I guess that is enough raining on the parade for me. Harry Enten _was discussing Presidential elections at the national level_, and I totally agree with him. Itā€™s just that you canā€™t take that result and claim itā€™s dispositive with respect to off-year races at the state level. Comparing Presidential elections to off-year elections has always been comparing apples to zucchini. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2018, 11:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/137 "2018-03-04T11:53:57Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > FWIW, hereā€™s the blog of the U of H prof that article quotes as saying thereā€™s a primary-general turnout relationship: > [Links - Inside Texas Politics Blog](http://www.brandonrottinghaus.com/inside-texas-politics-blog) > > I donā€™t know. I am no statistics guy but istm that 2008 is skewing the line on his graph. And even harder to overlook is the clustering of years divisible by 4 at one end of the graph, and the years not so divisible at the other end. By the time you take that out by dealing with each group separately, you donā€™t have enough data points to bother with. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2018, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/138 "2018-03-04T13:12:59Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > And even harder to overlook is the clustering of years divisible by 4 at one end of the graph, and the years not so divisible at the other end. By the time you take that out by dealing with each group separately, you donā€™t have enough data points to bother with. I hadnā€™t even noticed that. Yeah, this guy is no number cruncher. Itā€™s crazy this election gets talked about in the ā€œanti-Trumpā€ context when Cruz himself is such a shit. ---
**Author:** ![Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambrosio_Spinola)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2018, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/139 "2018-03-04T17:06:34Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Itā€™s crazy this election gets talked about in the ā€œanti-Trumpā€ context when Cruz himself is such a shit. The really sad part is that Cruz is no higher than fourth place on the list of biggest assholes on the statewide ballot - Iā€™d rank Sid Miller, Ken Paxton and Dan Patrick as all worse than him and there are also other debatable candidates. With early primary voting complete, the Democratsā€™ participation [more than doubled in the largest 10 counties while the Republican vote increased less than 15 percent](https://apps.texastribune.org/texas-elections-2018-primary-early-voting/). This is the first time that the Democratic voters actually outnumbered Republican ones since the mid '90s. Itā€™s still a really tough challenge for any Democrat to actually win a statewide race in Texas, but if those numbers hold up through the general we may actually make a real race out of it - and thatā€™s significant in and of itself. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2018, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/140 "2018-03-06T14:06:32Z")
Bumping this because today is primary day in Texas. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=8)