# Does Beto O'Rourke have a chance to oust Ted Cruz? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 2, 2018, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987 "2018-02-02T00:12:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2018, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/161 "2018-03-24T16:16:45Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Don’t suppose you have a cite for that. > > Regards, > Shodan You side used the bad guys, but you want **Chronos** to “prove it” that the Dems didn’t? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2018, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/162 "2018-03-24T16:22:14Z")
[Respect](https://twitter.com/LazyyMillennial/status/977267940796936192?s=19). ---
**Author:** ![naita](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naita/32/5862_2.png) [@naita](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/naita)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2018, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/163 "2018-03-24T20:28:25Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > [Respect](https://twitter.com/LazyyMillennial/status/977267940796936192?s=19). So many good replies to that tweet! ---
**Author:** ![Chisquirrel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6bbea6/32.png) [@Chisquirrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chisquirrel)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2018, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/164 "2018-03-24T20:33:30Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Don’t suppose you have a cite for that. > > Regards, > Shodan Requiring the proof of a negative? Surely you jest! ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2018, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/165 "2018-03-24T21:30:39Z")
The sun did not explode yesterday. The proof? Today. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2018, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/166 "2018-03-25T12:40:39Z")
[Snopes says False.](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/obama-campaign-use-tactics-cambridge-analytica/) The question is why someone would believe it to be True. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2018, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/167 "2018-03-25T13:26:32Z")
> [@Chimera](#): > > You side used the bad guys, but you want **Chronos** to “prove it” that the Dems didn’t? :dubious: He claimed they did independent checking - I would like to see a cite for that. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2018, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/168 "2018-03-25T16:35:55Z")
Actually I said that maybe they did that. It’s certainly one explanation for why the Republicans keep ending up cozying up to James Bond villains and the Democrats don’t. But if you have some other explanation for how that keeps on happening, I’d be happy to hear it. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2018, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/169 "2018-03-25T17:37:15Z")
Will say that, looking at that picture, now there appears to be even more of Ted Cruz to hate, at least 20-30 pounds more. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/170 "2018-03-27T18:32:48Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > [Respect](https://twitter.com/LazyyMillennial/status/977267940796936192?s=19). Houston radio host Michael Berry does not appreciate the woman who trolled Ted Cruz, calls her a “[little tramp](https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/texas/article/Michael-Berry-Cruz-tweet-troll-picture-Orourke-12784410.php).” ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2018, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/171 "2018-03-28T18:59:36Z")
Big movement toward Cruz in [this race on PredictIt today](https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5313/Will-Ted-Cruz-be-re-elected-to-the-US-Senate-in-Texas-in-2018). A quick Google news search didn’t reveal anything. Anyone have any idea why? ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2018, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/172 "2018-03-28T19:09:03Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Not the same really. > > [PolitiFact | Comparing Facebook data use by Obama, Cambridge Analytica](http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2018/mar/22/meghan-mccain/comparing-facebook-data-use-obama-cambridge-analyt/) These are the money statements: > [@](#): > > The people signing up knew the data they were handing over would be used to support a political campaign. Their friends, however, did not. > > The people who downloaded the app used by Cambridge Analytica did not know their data would be used to aid any political campaigns. The app was billed as a personality quiz that would be used by Cambridge University researchers ---
**Author:** ![dogecoindaryl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/59ef9b/32.png) [@dogecoindaryl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dogecoindaryl)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2018, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/173 "2018-04-03T22:19:18Z")
Ted skirted under the radar for many years. He was very much magnified during the 2016 run and now everyone has caught up to his ugly side. As Al Franken says, “Ted Cruz is the guy who microwaves fish at your office.” ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2018, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/174 "2018-04-03T22:48:53Z")
[Beto O’Rourke says he raised staggering $6.7M in first quarter of 2018](https://www.texastribune.org/2018/04/03/orourke-says-he-raised-staggering-67m-first-quarter-2018/) > [@](#): > > Cruz has not released his first-quarter fundraising numbers yet, but O’Rourke’s $6.7 million total is on a different level than his previous hauls, which ranged from $1.7 million to $2.4 million. Those alone were good enough to outraise Cruz for three of the last four reporting periods. > > Furthermore, the $6.7 million total came from more than 141,000 contributions — another record-busting number for O’Rourke. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2018, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/175 "2018-04-03T23:11:50Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > [Beto O’Rourke says he raised staggering $6.7M in first quarter of 2018](https://www.texastribune.org/2018/04/03/orourke-says-he-raised-staggering-67m-first-quarter-2018/) O’Rourke is someone to keep an eye on. He could rise quickly. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2018, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/176 "2018-04-03T23:22:50Z")
More on fundraising… [5 things Beto O’Rourke’s eye-popping fundraising reveals](https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/03/politics/beto-orourke-ted-cruz-fundraising-texas/index.html) Here are the five reasons. Details at the link. 1. Democratic donors hate Cruz 2. O’Rourke has a much higher $$$ ceiling 3. PAC money is overrated 4. O’Rourke isn’t a creation of the national Democratic Party 5. This is a real race ---
**Author:** ![Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambrosio_Spinola)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/177 "2018-04-04T02:28:46Z")
The whole red state / blue state thing makes people act like there’s no Republicans in California and no Democrats in Texas - but of course that’s nonsense. There’s lots of Democrats in Texas, we’re just outnumbered, and lots of other politicians get Texas Democratic money. Beto is the first chance we’ve had in decades to make a real race out of it, so it makes sense that he’s getting donations. That’s still a hell of a lot of money though. I still figure he’s got maybe a 5% chance at best to win - but the Democratic candidate has had about a 0% chance in a Senate race for decades now so it’s the best game in town. People are talking about it a little differently, too. I think that Doug Jones’ victory in Alabama may prove enormously important in the long run - I hear many people bringing that up around here. Knowing that a thing is possible is important in any political race. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/178 "2018-04-04T03:56:18Z")
Yeah, engagement counts for a lot, and knowing that a thing is possible will lead to more engagement. I suspect that there’s no state in the country that couldn’t be flipped, if the minority party (including leaners) managed to get 100% turnout. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 4:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/179 "2018-04-04T04:52:13Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Yeah, engagement counts for a lot, and knowing that a thing is possible will lead to more engagement. I suspect that there’s no state in the country that couldn’t be flipped, if the minority party (including leaners) managed to get 100% turnout. CA and NY. No chance either of those will go red in the foreseeable future. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/180 "2018-04-04T14:21:15Z")
Hm, you appear to be correct, at least about California (I didn’t check New York). I was expecting California (being a solid-colored state) to have low turnout, but it looks like they got 58.73% in 2016. That wouldn’t be enough to overcome the nearly 2 to 1 advantage Democrats have. It still could, though, in a midterm year, when turnout is lower. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987.md?page=10)