# Does Beto O'Rourke have a chance to oust Ted Cruz?

**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Created:** [February 2, 2018, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987 "2018-02-02T00:12:31Z")
**Posts on this page:** 1
**Showing post:** 25

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### Author: ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)
#### Post date: [February 2, 2018, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-beto-orourke-have-a-chance-to-oust-ted-cruz/807987/25 "2018-02-02T23:06:58Z")

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> [@John\_Mace](#):
>
> It makes no sense to ignore the specifics when the specifics include “creepy old guy who chased after and molested teenage girls well into his 30s”. You’re not seeing the (rotten) tree for the forest.

No, that’s not the proper data-based stance. From an old thread:

> [@What all things were working in the democrats favor and against the GOP in Alabama in that election](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-all-things-were-working-in-the-democrats-favor-and-against-the-gop-in-alabama-in-that-election/804461/5):
>
> 538 nails the OP: [Republicans Shouldn’t Assume Roy Moore Was An Outlier | FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-shouldnt-assume-roy-moore-was-an-outlier/)
> 
> For a normal Senate election, the Republican would win by 28 or 29 points. But these aren’t normal times:
> 
> [ul]  
> [li]Subtract 10 points because of the national political environment.[/li][li]Subtract 10 points because of Moore’s problems _other_ than his alleged assault of girls.[/li][li]Lose 10 points due to swings and changes in voter turnout because of the Moore scandal.[/li][/ul] Jones needed all 3. He got them, courtesy of Steve Bannon and Moore’s other enablers.

So you can look use the Alabama race as a reminder of the importance of national environment. In this case it cost the GOP 10 points. Ted Cruz is a potentially weak candidate (though not as bad as Moore), so you can refer to the middle category for an absolute worst case scenario. Ted Cruz won the 2012 race by 16 percentage points. So we’ll need 6 out of those middle 10 points if The Oily One is to be defeated, if the national climate remains where it was. A tall order, but not impossible.

The last category must indeed be set aside.

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