Maybe it is all a bad coincidence, but in the past 3 months, our respective relationships with the powers in the Middle East (mainly the Arab side), China, and Russia, have all deteriorated from active diplomatic engagement to outright hostility. Also, there is renewed violence in the Balkans, with Bush all the while talking about withdrawal of peacekeeping forces.
While I don’t think that 3 months is long enough to make firm conclusions, I do think that Bush’s “hands off” policies towards these regions, and active military antagonism of China (through arms deals with Taiwan) has worsened these situations.
Add to this relations with some of our closest allies in Europe are being harmed by Bush’s stance on environmental issues. This at a time when relations are strained across the board while we attempt to isolate ourselves from foot and mouth and mad cow disease.
I keep closest watch on the Middle East. At first (dare I say) I may have even welcomed Bush’s standoffish policies, as I didn’t think forcing both sides into an agreement neither was ready for (Clinton’s 11th hour policy at the end) was productive. Now it is clear that the Palestinians (and perhaps the Israeli regime) have interpreted the American withdrawal from mediation as a sign that it is now time for “every man for himself.” The Americans withdrew, and now the parties are forced to directly confront. This happens at the most sensitive moment – neither side is equipped to give the other fair footing in negotiations. From the Israeli side, they cannot negotiate from a position of weakness without the guaranteed protection of the USA. They feel that with a country 3 miles wide at the narrowest, they cannot give up their own security for the right of self-determination of a hostile people in their backyards.
Granted, Bush is going to ask Mubarak this week for some help in reentering the fray. But, it looks like he is going to try to stick the majority of blame on the Palestinians, which won’t be helpful at getting the Palestinian people in a situation in which they are prepared to accept peace.
Both sides need to feel that they are negotiating from a position of strength. This can only happen if each side has a “big brother” to come and help them knock some heads if things get rough. IMHO Clinton tried to play it this way. Bush may not be.
The next 3 months will certainly be interesting if the trend continues.
Taking credit and responsibility for foreign events that happen during your presidency would be a refreshing change in American politics. WHen was the last time such noblesse was evident?
The divide between Powell and the other executives is significant. If it was not, it would not be so public. No one expects experts to agree all the time, but there does seem to be some divide here. I think Bush’s foreign policy to this point has been unnecessarily provocative. I agree Kyoto would not have passed, but disagree that the Palestinians were indeed offered everything they wanted by the Israelis.
Bush po’d the Brits so bad that the Deputy Prime Minister is talking about trade sanctions on “the world’s most polluting nation”. The DPM says he’s “against them”, but how much foreign relations savy does it show when you allow yourself to blunder into this sort of tiff with your closest ally ?
This statement is ridiculous. Do you mean that Dubya and friends are responsible for a submarine surfacing under a Japanese boat, the Navy bombing our own forces in Iraq, etc… How exactly does the White House control security at the Los Alamos Lab? Furthermore, the entire concept of Chinese spies running wild is an invention of the GOP that was used to smear Clinton with the help of an obedient press. Not only were they unable to convict Wen Ho Lee, but there was never any real evidence to use against him in the first place. Where have you found any stories about real, actual Chinese spies.
I’ll second that, although I’d say that while I oppose most of the content, I do think a lot of the problems have come with stupid execution. Unnecessarily tipping one’s hand.
Hoo boy, well, it has given the European press the opp to trot out their full panalopy of adjectives.
Yes, the Europeans are pissed.
Fall out? Trade negotiations.
Absolutely agreed (and of course for the obvious reasons also my area of closest watching…)
Edwino, we really are on the same page in this.
I can only hope that Colin gets control of the FP debate and starts putting the diplomacy back in the game.
And a lot of the British public (and the tabloid press, for what little it’s worth) are in agreement with the DPM.
Of course, neither Tony Blair nor Gordon Brown pay much attention to Prescott, and both can and frequently do overrule him. I’m guessing that the Brits will bluster, the US will offer some vague placating words, the British will decide not to rock the economic boat (especially as they’re desperate for American tourists these days), and nothing will come of it. France, on the other hand…
Yesiree! He made it all on his own. And if he speaks some Spanish and passable English and got C’s at university, that guarantees his team will produce good foreign policy, seeing as it is the strongest in decades, and all.