# Does China want a united Korea? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 9, 2018, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-china-want-a-united-korea/815785 "2018-06-09T23:00:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-china-want-a-united-korea/815785/21 "2018-06-12T02:20:35Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > I think we are seeing China becoming a state that wishes mostly for wealth-building through trade. To that end, a unified – and stable – Korea would be the best thing for it. Not to divert the thread, but while trade is important, China is building up their navy and has laid claim to a section of the South China Sea also claimed by other nations, so they do want to be able to flex their military muscles, at least in the SE Asia region. As for North Korea, I would note that Kim visited China before his meeting with Trump, and my guess is that China is getting up-to-date information on the meeting from ‘sources’ almost as fast as things are happening. And that they’ve given Kim certain limits and talking points. As to the OP question, China wants to be the dominant power in the region; to do so the United States military needs to be removed from the region, first from Korea, then from Japan. Korea being re-united is only a concern in how it helps China achieve it’s goal. Like someone above noted, China is playing a long game…something democracies can have problems doing. IMHO as always. YMMV. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 6:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-china-want-a-united-korea/815785/22 "2018-06-12T06:04:52Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Certainly unifying the two Koreas would be a stress for South Korea same as you mentioned it was with Germany. > > But like Germany I think it is something all would like to see done and probably something you just kinda have to do given the chance. There would be short term stress (at a guess a decade or two) but long term benefits having the peninsula united. From a [post of mine](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=16162351&postcount=171)five years ago. > [@](#): > > At the time of the German reunification, the East German population was only 26% of the West German population and its per capita GDP was 63% than that of West Germany. In contrast, North Korea is about half the population of the ROK, and its per capita GDP is a mere 8% of that of South Korea. > > Rough calculations show that the average resultant per capita of Germany post unification was 92% of the pre-unification economy whereas it would be 69% for South Korea. That doesn’t include the cost of upgrading infrastructure, which was very costly in the case of Germany but would be insane in Korea. According to a documentary about the German reunification, one typical job in the former East Germany was a bicycle messenger, as there were not enough phones, even for businesses. East Germany was doing the best of the East Block countries. Yet reunification was difficult because of the huge differences in business culture. North Korea is so far behind South Korea, that it would be an absolute nightmare. There isn’t any infrastructure, much less so than with East Germany. The former East Germany may have needed to expand their phone network, but they would have to completely build North Korea. ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 9:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-china-want-a-united-korea/815785/23 "2018-06-12T09:51:37Z")
> [@TokyoBayer](#): > > From a [post of mine](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=16162351&postcount=171)five years ago.That doesn’t include the cost of upgrading infrastructure, which was very costly in the case of Germany but would be insane in Korea. > > According to a documentary about the German reunification, one typical job in the former East Germany was a bicycle messenger, as there were not enough phones, even for businesses. East Germany was doing the best of the East Block countries. Yet reunification was difficult because of the huge differences in business culture. > > North Korea is so far behind South Korea, that it would be an absolute nightmare. There isn’t any infrastructure, much less so than with East Germany. The former East Germany may have needed to expand their phone network, but they would have to completely build North Korea. On phones - times have changed. Their is no longer the need to build miles of telephone lines. Now we have cell towers which can handle phones. I read how Somalia, even with all their warlords and civil war problems, managed to put in cell phone service. As for other NK infrastructure, they have sewage treatment plants and paved roads and such. ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 9:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-china-want-a-united-korea/815785/24 "2018-06-12T09:55:00Z")
> [@bob\_2](#): > > That would also have been true for East Germany. After unification however a great many older ‘Ossis’ changed their minds and longed for the security and simplicity of the old regime. Many still do to this day. This is why to unite the Koreas I’m seeing the need for some sort of amnesty and retirement system needed for all the people in power in NK. All the prison guards, all the party leadership, basically all the people who befitted from NK being what it was. Also why it might take 20 years or more to work those people out of the system. ---
**Author:** ![Kropotkin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kropotkin/32/18045_2.png) [@Kropotkin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kropotkin)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-china-want-a-united-korea/815785/26 "2018-06-12T17:04:48Z")
Nitpick: as the military historian Gwynne Dyer pointed out years ago, if you want to talk about a small country being more or less captive to a much larger neighbour in terms of domestic, military, and foreign policy, it is more accurate to speak of “Canadianization” than “Finlandization.” ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-china-want-a-united-korea/815785/27 "2018-06-12T17:33:35Z")
> [@Kropotkin](#): > > Nitpick: as the military historian Gwynne Dyer pointed out years ago, if you want to talk about a small country being more or less captive to a much larger neighbour in terms of domestic, military, and foreign policy, it is more accurate to speak of “Canadianization” than “Finlandization.” It’s a basic reality that a small and weak country that neighbors a large and powerful country is going to find itself being dominated by that larger country. This is true for Canada in its relations with the United States. But people in places like Finland, Belgium, Korea, and Poland must roll their eyes every time Canadians claim that they’re the primary sufferers from this. ---
**Author:** ![Kropotkin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kropotkin/32/18045_2.png) [@Kropotkin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kropotkin)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-china-want-a-united-korea/815785/28 "2018-06-12T23:33:42Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > It’s a basic reality that a small and weak country that neighbors a large and powerful country is going to find itself being dominated by that larger country. This is true for Canada in its relations with the United States. > > But people in places like Finland, Belgium, Korea, and Poland must roll their eyes every time Canadians claim that they’re the primary sufferers from this. It’s not about suffering or military occupation, it’s about the acquiescence, and Dyer’s point was Canada’s foreign, military, and domestic policy was much more in line with that of the US than Finland’s ever was with the USSR. ---
**Author:** ![voltaire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voltaire/32/313_2.png) [@voltaire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/voltaire)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2018, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-china-want-a-united-korea/815785/29 "2018-06-13T15:37:10Z")
Tangentially relevant is whether their other opinionated neighbor and occasional patron, Russia, wants a united Korea. The answer would seem to be yes, since they’ve been keen on providing a pipeline straight to SK. They have also been (at least outwardly) pretty tough on NK with the nuclear issue and related UN sanctions. Maybe their stance there is their way of spurring on reunification so they have the chance to build their pipeline. Prediction: They’ll soon be interjecting themselves and their pipeline deal into any disarmament/reunification talks. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2018, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-china-want-a-united-korea/815785/30 "2018-06-13T17:19:08Z")
> [@Kropotkin](#): > > It’s not about suffering or military occupation, it’s about the acquiescence, and Dyer’s point was Canada’s foreign, military, and domestic policy was much more in line with that of the US than Finland’s ever was with the USSR. How much of that was due to American influence and how much of that was due to the two countries sharing common interests? If anything, it was America that moved to the Canadian position in foreign and military policy. Canada has always looked outwards due to its history as part of the British Empire/Commonwealth. Canada was part of the Allied coalition from the start of both world wars. It was the United States that had to be dragged out of isolationism before finally getting an interest in world affairs in the years after World War II. As for domestic policy, Canada seems much closer to the British model than the American one. ---
**Author:** ![Kropotkin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kropotkin/32/18045_2.png) [@Kropotkin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kropotkin)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2018, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-china-want-a-united-korea/815785/31 "2018-06-14T18:53:32Z")
Dyer’s comment was made in the context of the Cold War. He was comparing Finland’s relationship with the USSR with Canada’s relationship to the US, to suggest that Canada was much more connected to its big neighbour than Finland was to its big neighbour, citing things like NORAD and NATO, support for various invasions, military purchases and bases, and the like. I think, but may be misremembering, he found that Canada voted more often with the US in the UN than Finland did with the USSR. In his view, the derogatory term “Finlandization” might well be applied to Canada. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2018, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-china-want-a-united-korea/815785/32 "2018-06-14T20:13:12Z")
I think the only way a reunification happens anytime in the next 100 years would be for North Korea to establish itself as a relatively autonomous and functional state in its own right. Merging the two countries together also requires having a shared system of values. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be differences - two regions can live with different attitudes, but South Koreans wouldn’t want to absorb 22 million people without who are brainwashed into sacrificing many of their human rights. I’d think there would need to be a period of reeducation. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2018, 8:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-china-want-a-united-korea/815785/33 "2018-06-15T08:40:03Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > On phones - times have changed. Their is no longer the need to build miles of telephone lines. Now we have cell towers which can handle phones. I read how Somalia, even with all their warlords and civil war problems, managed to put in cell phone service. > > As for other NK infrastructure, they have sewage treatment plants and paved roads and such. If you’ve never been outside of the US then probably not easy to understand the differences in qualities of infrastructure between richer and poorer nations. There can’t be very many people on the planet who haven’t see the [night photos](https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/north-korea-hermit-country-space-photos/) showing the difference between North and South Korea. That’s not simple because a few people forgot to turn on the lights. And yes, they have roads. Oh, but not paved ones. > [@](#): > > Satellite imagery nowadays reveals a dark North Korea surrounded by vibrantly lit South Korea and China (a widely seen image on the Internet.) Frequent blackouts are a regular part of North Korean life. > > Transportation is hardly better. The total length of all paved roads in North Korea outside major metropolitan centers is just under 800 km. To put this in perspective, South Korea, with a slightly smaller land area, has at present about 80,000 km of paved road outside the major metro areas. > > North Korean railway technology has remained virtually unchanged since the 1930s. Until just a few years ago, one could frequently encounter a Japanese steam engine locomotive manufactured in the 1930s but still puffing along at a North Korean railway station. A Chinese-based tourist company even sold travel packages to railway history buffs willing to make the long trek into the North in order to see the last functional 1930’s era locomotive. > > This is not the case anymore, but even the best North Korean railways rarely exceed speeds of 50km an hour while most branch lines are limited to 15-20 km an hour. > > Unfortunately, these problems are unlikely to be solved by North Korea on its own. High-speed railways and roads cost billions to build. Further complicating things, the payoff is long-term, and is thus not always attractive for local entrepreneurs looking for a quick buck. This is just looking at a few of the problems. Other things include poor port facilities, inadequate airports, etc. > [@asahi](#): > > I think the only way a reunification happens anytime in the next 100 years would be for North Korea to establish itself as a relatively autonomous and functional state in its own right. Merging the two countries together also requires having a shared system of values. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be differences - two regions can live with different attitudes, but South Koreans wouldn’t want to absorb 22 million people without who are brainwashed into sacrificing many of their human rights. I’d think there would need to be a period of reeducation. Everyone talks about how difficult it was for the Germanies to mesh together, and that was with two relatively successful countries. German workers were just not ready for a capitalist society and the change in thinking. I just can’t imagine what it would be like to attempt to integrate North Korean workers into a modern society. ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2018, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-china-want-a-united-korea/815785/34 "2018-06-16T14:47:39Z")
I agree with the references to polls saying younger South Koreans are less likely to view North Korea(ns) as ‘us’ than older people. Also I agree with the obvious fact of how much relatively larger in population and poorer relative to its ‘western’ counterpart the DPRK is relative to the ROK when compared to German reunification. And in addition to being a huge economic burden, it would be a one person one vote system where ~1/3 of the voters were conditioned from earliest education (almost all of them by now) by perhaps the most bizarre political system on earth. How would that work, even assuming outside entities somehow paid the $ cost? (though of course outsiders would not pay for it, not mainly at least) The point which might not have emphasized enough is that IME ordinary South Koreans just don’t think very much about the practical aspects of reunification. The older generation more uniformly accepts the theory that unification is the inevitable goal of the Korean nation. The younger generation is more skeptical of that, but seems to me not intensely focused on the practicalities either. Again more like just ‘those weird people are not us, why should we unify with them?’ I’m not saying educated and thinking ROK’ans are unaware of the huge practical issues. It just seems they aren’t as central to pro and con views of unification as one might assume, particularly the cost. Although ‘those are weird people’ is arguably an expression of the practical problem of how a democracy would work with such a big difference in prior political climate for 1/3 of the population, also goes well beyond the E/W German difference. Back to China, China wouldn’t necessarily be harmed significantly by a reunification on reasonable terms from China’s POV. But there are at least two downsides to China even in a reunification that’s smooth and peaceful. 1. It removes the DPRK as a thorn in the side of China’s No.1 strategic rival 2. Chinese Koreans aren’t a big group and in many cases assimilated, but it is still an issue of potential separatism in the Korean Autonomous Region that doesn’t exist as long as the adjacent Korean entity is a hell hole. And China hasn’t reached its future ‘dream country’ state where everyone wants to be part of China. China obviously worries very seriously about ethnic separatism in general, and tolerating it among Chinese Koreans would not be acceptable as a precedent. Not a huge issue, but not a non-issue, IMO. China would want to be compensated for these changes, as by a reduction/dissolution of US-Korean alliance, etc. It’s not impossible to imagine a deal that could satisfy the US and China in that regard though. The main problem is all the risk of really bad stuff if/when the DPRK regime collapses. And China doesn’t necessarily think the basic existing situation is unsustainable. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-china-want-a-united-korea/815785.md?page=1)