# Does it feel like there has been some sort of phase shift in the opinion on vaccines recently? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [January 31, 2015, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437 "2015-01-31T16:46:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![GrumpyBunny](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bc8723/32.png) [@GrumpyBunny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrumpyBunny)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2015, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/21 "2015-02-01T16:07:04Z")
> [@Jackmannii](#): > > There’s long been expectation among immunization advocates that serious preventable disease outbreaks would have to occur, in order to immunize parents against antivax foolishness and spur them to keep vaccination rates high. > > I still expect it’ll take a significant number of deaths before antivaxers truly achieve their deserved pariah status, and stop being treated by news media as holding an alternative view that deserves equal status with that of public health professionals.\* > > \*even with the current measles outbreak centered in the southwest U.S., some major media sources are falling back into the “equal time” trap with interviews of antivax pediatricians and spokespeople for antivax organizations. I may be more jaded than you are: I think there will need to be a number of deaths of anti-vaxxer’s children and family before there is a sea change among that group. And I feel horrible waiting for the deaths of children, but honestly, I’d rather it be the kids of parents who make crazy and selfish decisions than the children of parents who aren’t selfish and crazy. The “equal time” trap drives me mental. We don’t give “equal time” to flat-earthers or people who deny gravity. Why this group? ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2015, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/22 "2015-02-01T16:56:39Z")
> [@GrumpyBunny](#): > > I may be more jaded than you are: I think there will need to be a number of deaths of anti-vaxxer’s children and family before there is a sea change among that group. And I feel horrible waiting for the deaths of children, but honestly, I’d rather it be the kids of parents who make crazy and selfish decisions than the children of parents who aren’t selfish and crazy. no, because they’ll find something else to blame. it couldn’t have been their bad decision which killed their child. _It’s always someone else’s fault._ > [@](#): > > The “equal time” trap drives me mental. We don’t give “equal time” to flat-earthers or people who deny gravity. Why this group? because this one has had brainless celebrities take it up as their cause célèbre. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2015, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/23 "2015-02-01T17:44:40Z")
> [@GrumpyBunny](#): > > I may be more jaded than you are: I think there will need to be a number of deaths of anti-vaxxer’s children and family before there is a sea change among that group. And I feel horrible waiting for the deaths of children, but honestly, I’d rather it be the kids of parents who make crazy and selfish decisions than the children of parents who aren’t selfish and crazy. Stuff like measels isn’t particularly deadly if treated (something like one in a thousand) and despite the anti-vaxxers, immunization rates are high enough a widespread epidemic as occured in the late 80’s is probably impossible. So even one death from measels is fairly unlikely, and a “number” of them even more so. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Holdsworth\_Effect](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/848f3c/32.png) [@The\_Holdsworth\_Effect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Holdsworth_Effect)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2015, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/24 "2015-02-01T19:39:59Z")
> [@GrumpyBunny](#): > > I may be more jaded than you are: I think there will need to be a number of deaths of anti-vaxxer’s children and family before there is a sea change among that group. And I feel horrible waiting for the deaths of children, but honestly, I’d rather it be the kids of parents who make crazy and selfish decisions than the children of parents who aren’t selfish and crazy. > > The “equal time” trap drives me mental. We don’t give “equal time” to flat-earthers or people who deny gravity. Why this group? I do think GB is likely right. However, a prominent antivaxxer mom blooger (sp intended) declined to be on a TV show last week when she discovered she would be confronted. Jenny McCarthy cancelled a show locally in WA and I’m betting this outbreak was partially the reason. Kolga and LavenderBlue are on my desk at work 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Kolga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e56c9b/32.png) [@Kolga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolga)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2015, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/25 "2015-02-01T22:18:05Z")
> [@The\_Holdsworth\_Effect](#): > > Kolga and LavenderBlue are on my desk at work 😉 😃 ---
**Author:** ![lisiate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/f05b48/32.png) [@lisiate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lisiate)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2015, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/26 "2015-02-01T22:29:20Z")
> [@Dangerosa](#): > > In some public schools in California, the rate of personal belief exemptions can be higher than 5%. Private school data isn’t available but most people believe private schools are often a LOT higher. This blogger has got [comprehensive data](http://crookedtimber.org/2015/01/30/vaccination-exemptions-in-california-kindergartens/)for public and private schools. And the rate in private schools is indeed far higher (have a look at the third graph down). ---
**Author:** ![Guinastasia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guinastasia/32/5751_2.png) [@Guinastasia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guinastasia)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 6:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/27 "2015-02-02T06:57:23Z")
> [@Senegoid](#): > > Article in NYT just yesterday (Jan. 30, 2015): > > [Vaccine Critics Turn Defensive Over Measles](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/31/us/vaccine-critics-turn-defensive-over-measles.html), Jack Healy and Michael Paulson. > > So it looks like the anti-vaxxers are feeling the heat. That article made me want to vomit. The teenager who WANTED to get the vaccine so she wouldn’t miss any school, but whose mother wouldn’t let her. The kid whose mother wouldn’t even get him a tetanus shot after he cut himself on a fence. (My grandmother had a brother who _died_ of tetanus when he was only seven, after he cut his foot on a rusty nail. You dumb bitch.) That should be considered child abuse. ---
**Author:** ![GrumpyBunny](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bc8723/32.png) [@GrumpyBunny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrumpyBunny)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 7:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/28 "2015-02-02T07:53:26Z")
I just heard the statistic that 15% of kindergartners in Pennsylvania are not vaccinated for MMR. Remind me not to visit PA. **Guinastasia** – my grandmother had polio as a child and suffered its effects throughout her life (she lived to be 93). I’m old enough to remember kids who had lost their hearing as a side effect of measles. I can’t imagine any parent deciding that any vaccine preventable disease shouldn’t be avoided. ---
**Author:** ![Jeff\_Lichtman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jeff_lichtman/32/1531_2.png) [@Jeff\_Lichtman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jeff_Lichtman)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 9:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/29 "2015-02-02T09:01:45Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > Stuff like measels isn’t particularly deadly if treated (something like one in a thousand) and despite the anti-vaxxers, immunization rates are high enough a widespread epidemic as occured in the late 80’s is probably impossible. So even one death from measels is fairly unlikely, and a “number” of them even more so. The overall vaccination rate may be high, but if there are local clusters of unvaccinated people you could still get a lot of people infected. For example, there are schools in Marin County, California with a large proportion of unvaccinated children ([cite](http://www.marinij.com/marinnews/ci_23880569/number-marin-children-without-vaccinations-continues-grow-health)). The biggest danger is to people who are immunocompromised, such as people with AIDS or are undergoing cancer treatment. The Wikipedia page on measles says the death rate for such people is 30%. ---
**Author:** ![RandMcnally](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b782af/32.png) [@RandMcnally](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RandMcnally)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/30 "2015-02-02T12:45:07Z")
> [@Kolga](#): > > Second, parents who understand the science of vaccination, and know that vaccines are safe and effective, are starting to be more vocal. They are starting to realize that they’ve allowed the vaccine denialist cult to dominate the public narrative for too long. They are also realizing that they can no longer tolerate their friends and family members who are members of the vaccine denialist cult in the interest of being polite or not making waves. I think this is true. My wife has always been pro-common sense, talking about it, sharing articles, etc. But once this measles outbreak occurred she’s kicked it up a notch. Went from, “here’s an interesting article” to “look at the dangers these morons are!” ---
**Author:** ![grude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47774/32.png) [@grude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/grude)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/31 "2015-02-02T13:04:20Z")
My wife was on some pregnancy and baby boards when she was going through that, and while she absolutely loved them for info she picked up she was totally baffled by the anti-vaxxer demo(she isn’t from the US and most of the board’s posters are). I can’t even explain it, she has been point blank why would someone hate vaccines?! Do they like measles? The government conspiracy angle makes no sense, I mean sure all governments are corrupt and venal but spending billions to what give some kids autism?! You basically have to look at it as a irrational cultural thing, nothing more nothing less. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/32 "2015-02-02T15:46:28Z")
From my admittedly limited perspective as a parent of an infant and a preschooler, it seems to me that say… 5-10 years ago, if someone spouted off about being against vaccinations, people just chalked it up to them being a bit of an oddball. Sometime in 2012 or so, Andrew Wakefield’s research was shown to be fraudulent, and shortly thereafter there have been several outbreaks of diseases such as measles where either the patient zero, or the majority of the afflicted children were unvaccinated. Also, at about the same time, there’s been a grass-roots effort on the part of non-ignorant parents and media figures to try and educate the public about vaccinations (Penn & Teller, Neil deGrasse Tyson stand out) or if nothing else, show vaccinations as a normal part of infancy/early childhood (believe it or not, the Kardashians are who I’m talking about). And finally, in the past few years, there’s been a big resurgence in the thought that “Science is cool!”, and vaccinations are fundamentally a scientific thing, so I think that helps as well. So ultimately, antivaxxers went from being considered a bit eccentric and looking out for their children in their own silly, but harmless way, to being viewed as ignorant, pig-headed fools who are not only endangering their own children, but other children who are either too young to be immunized (\< 1 in the case of MMR), or who have weakened immune systems for whatever reason. This also tracks pretty clearly with my internal thoughts- if someone would have told me they weren’t vaccinating their kids in 2004, I’d have thought this person was definitely a weirdo, and probably pretty rare. I likely wouldn’t have said anything. But I had someone tell me and a buddy that they weren’t vaccinating their daughter in 2011, and my buddy and I proceeded to tell him what an dumbshit he was (exact term!), and how he’s endangering her, and how we thought he’s smarter than that, etc… all stuff we’d have NEVER said in 2004. ---
**Author:** ![Winston\_Smith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e95f7d/32.png) [@Winston\_Smith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Winston_Smith)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/33 "2015-02-02T20:55:23Z")
I certainly hope so. The anti-vaxxers are actively dangerous ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/34 "2015-02-02T21:06:31Z")
I think it’ll stick, but sadly, I think it’ll take a few kids dying of the measles before that happens. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/35 "2015-02-02T21:08:58Z")
> [@Jeff\_Lichtman](#): > > The overall vaccination rate may be high, but if there are local clusters of unvaccinated people you could still get a lot of people infected. For example, there are schools in Marin County, California with a large proportion of unvaccinated children ([cite](http://www.marinij.com/marinnews/ci_23880569/number-marin-children-without-vaccinations-continues-grow-health)). Sure, but thats sort of my point. Measels might burn through one of those schools, and in doing so would cause much pain, discomfort and a considerable expense in both direct treatment and in perventative measures, but that’s not going to cause the hundreds or thousands of cases you’d need to make more than one death likely (note the size of the incoming classes in that article are in the teens). And since the wider vaccination rate is still pretty high, its ulikely to become a wider epidemic. Obviously that’s not a reason to forgo the vaccine, which is almost rudiculously cheap and easy compared to the expense and pain caused by even a non-deadly case of the measels. I’m just saying that I don’t think we’re likely to see a large, or even small, number of deaths that **GrumpyBunny** was suggesting. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/36 "2015-02-02T21:16:31Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > My one hope is that maybe the states will actually [stop making it so easy](http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-mh-measles-how-legislators-can-end-personal-belief-exemptions-from-vaccination-20150129-column.html#page=1) for the refusers’ kids to attend public schools putting everyone else at risk. In the states that allow “religious exemptions” to the vaccine mandate (48 states) all a parent has to do is claim they belong to some trumped up religious belief interpretation, and 20 states don’t even require that the parent claim a religious belief - just a personal, philosophical, or “moral” one. > > I am highly respectful of religious freedom and cut a lot of slack for individual religious freedom. But religious freedom does not justify putting other people at medical risk and the religious exemption as implemented is doing that. > > If the tide turns such that states get rid of these (often complete bullshit) exemptions that make the mandate no mandate at all, then I will be thrilled. Yes, they need to get rid of those. Let us start slow with a requirement that you need a letter from the head of the Church. I dont thinks there’s as much of a swing as it looks to be. The child-killer “Jenny” McCarthy is still getting plenty of work despite her complete lack of talent and rapidly aging looks. ---
**Author:** ![friedo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/8edcca/32.png) [@friedo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/friedo)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/37 "2015-02-02T21:24:49Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Let us start slow with a requirement that you need a letter from the head of the Church. How about we start with a policy of “Your religion is stupid. Get the shot or exit civilized society.” ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/38 "2015-02-02T21:34:30Z")
> [@GrumpyBunny](#): > > I just heard the statistic that 15% of kindergartners in Pennsylvania are not vaccinated for MMR. Why are vaccination rates so low in Pennsylvania? [Here’s the state breakdown](http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6341a1.htm). Most states, including places that you usually associate with hippy-dippy anti-vaxxers like CA and VT are actually pretty high (90%+ is usually cited as what’s needed for herd immunity). The really low States are Colorado, Kansas, Penn and Arkansas (especially Colorado). I can sort of see a mixture of rural poverty and a lot of fringe Churches driving low rates in those states, but other States have those things to and yet still have high vaccination rates. Are there any studies of what acctually drives non-vaccination? Most reporting I’ve seen just gives a few anectodal cases, but I kind of think that ends up giving a picture of the types of non-vaccinated that are easy for reporters to reach and interview, rather than a representitive view. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/39 "2015-02-02T22:04:52Z")
I keep reading snide ant-religious quips here, as if mostl anti-vaxxers are fundamentalist Christians and ignorant yahoos of some sort. It’s not true. In reality, the anti-vaxxers tend to be well educated, politically liberal and vaguely “spiritual but not religious.” The typical anti-vaxxer isn’t a Baptist roaring, “God will protect my child from measles.” It’s a granola-eating neo-hippie saying, “Vaccines are a plot by big Pharma to make money. I protect my child from disease by giving him bean sprouts and a gluten free diet.” It’s not a coincidence that there are more rabid anti-vaxxers in Marin County than in Broward County. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/40 "2015-02-02T22:24:04Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > I keep reading snide ant-religious quips here, as if mostl anti-vaxxers are fundamentalist Christians and ignorant yahoos of some sort. > > It’s not true. In reality, the anti-vaxxers tend to be well educated, politically liberal and vaguely “spiritual but not religious.” > > The typical anti-vaxxer isn’t a Baptist roaring, “God will protect my child from measles.” It’s a granola-eating neo-hippie saying, “Vaccines are a plot by big Pharma to make money. I protect my child from disease by giving him bean sprouts and a gluten free diet.” > > It’s not a coincidence that there are more rabid anti-vaxxers in Marin County than in Broward County. Actually, it’s both groups. Check out [lisiate’s Crooked Timber link](http://crookedtimber.org/2015/01/30/vaccination-exemptions-in-california-kindergartens/). The top California counties for Kindergarten vaccine parental exemption are Nevada County (far away number 1), Mariposa and Humboldt. Marin doesn’t make the top 6. So yeah, neo-pot heads are a group, but let’s not count out ignorant yahoos. There was a measles epidemic among the insular [Amish](http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2014/06/24/323702892/measles-outbreak-in-ohio-leads-amish-to-reconsider-vaccines), which don’t fit easily into either category. (They have since changed their minds on the subject.) At any rate the problem is that there are pockets of anti-vax ignorance: in some (private) schools exemption rates appear to top 75%. Brrrrr. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437.md?page=3)