# Does it feel like there has been some sort of phase shift in the opinion on vaccines recently? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [January 31, 2015, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437 "2015-01-31T16:46:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/41 "2015-02-02T22:39:59Z")
Let us be clear about this - to the best of my knowledge only the Christian Scientists and the Amish actually are against vaccines (and most other medical stuff) on religious grounds. Maybe a few other extreme sects of fundamentalists be it Islamic or Christian too. But 99.99% (okay number pulled out of my ass, but if anything I’d bet it undercalls it) of those who claim a religious exemption are not one of those faiths; they are just saying “Faith!” and the schools accept it with a wink wink nudge nudge and have no power to do anything other than that. True deeply held religious beliefs should, I think, be deeply respected and cut a wide swath. That swath however does not get cut so wide that these believers’ children are placed at risk, does not include putting _others_ at risk, and does not justify extending that already unwarranted protection to the plethora of pathetic puerile parents prepared to prevaricate in preference to protecting their progeny from preventable pathology. ---
**Author:** ![RandMcnally](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b782af/32.png) [@RandMcnally](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RandMcnally)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2015, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/42 "2015-02-03T00:31:09Z")
I knew a girl who refused to get the flu vaccine. She didn’t “believe” in it. Then she got the flu that year and nearly died. This year she got the vaccine. ---
**Author:** ![Green\_Bean](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/green_bean/32/1760_2.png) [@Green\_Bean](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Green_Bean)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2015, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/43 "2015-02-03T00:58:39Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The simple reality is that no vaccine is 100% perfect, this one reputably lowers the risk of catching measles after exposure down to 5%. Yup. The person who exposed my kid to measles last year had been vaccinated. [Here’s the post where I described what happened.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17201160&postcount=48) > [@Simplicio](#): > > Stuff like measels isn’t particularly deadly if treated (something like one in a thousand) and despite the anti-vaxxers, immunization rates are high enough a widespread epidemic as occured in the late 80’s is probably impossible. So even one death from measels is fairly unlikely, and a “number” of them even more so. Death isn’t the only permanent problem that can be caused by measles. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2015, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/44 "2015-02-03T00:59:25Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > I keep reading snide ant-religious quips here, as if mostl anti-vaxxers are fundamentalist Christians and ignorant yahoos of some sort. > > It’s not true. In reality, the anti-vaxxers tend to be well educated, politically liberal and vaguely “spiritual but not religious.” Do you have a cite? See my earlier post, I think the “hippy-dippy” sort of anti-vaxxers tend to get used a lot in media reports, simply because they tend to be the people reporters (and for that matter, Dopers) are likely to have easy access to. But I’m not sure they actually make up that large a chunk of the non-vaccinated. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2015, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/45 "2015-02-03T01:15:52Z")
> [@grude](#): > > My wife was on some pregnancy and baby boards when she was going through that, and while she absolutely loved them for info she picked up she was totally baffled by the anti-vaxxer demo(she isn’t from the US and most of the board’s posters are). > > I can’t even explain it, she has been point blank why would someone hate vaccines?! Do they like measles? The government conspiracy angle makes no sense, I mean sure all governments are corrupt and venal but spending billions to what give some kids autism?! > > You basically have to look at it as a irrational cultural thing, nothing more nothing less. honestly, I think the biggest reason is that the people refusing to vaccinate their kids simply don’t appreciate how dangerous these diseases can be. past generations saw first-hand the crippling effects of polio, and/or the distress of pertussis, the long-term effects of measles (deafness,) and so on. they’ve been out of the public consciousness for so long that the average shithead (who thinks history began the day he/she was born) equates it to the flu. If ignorance is the lack of knowledge, then stupidity is the desire to remain ignorant. these people are stupid. ---
**Author:** ![TBG](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c89c15/32.png) [@TBG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TBG)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2015, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/46 "2015-02-03T01:20:08Z")
> [@RandMcnally](#): > > I knew a girl who refused to get the flu vaccine. She didn’t “believe” in it. Then she got the flu that year and nearly died. > > This year she got the vaccine. Yeah, well, this year my grandpa got the flu vaccine just like he’s done for years and years because he “believes” in it. Then he got the flu this year and nearly died. This year’s flu vaccine was pretty useless overall. _shrug_ (btw. I am not anti-vax, but I also don’t think the flu vaccine should be lumped in the same category as “real” vaccines against shit like measles or whatever when talking about this stuff) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2015, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/47 "2015-02-03T01:39:32Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > Do you have a cite? See my earlier post, I think the “hippy-dippy” sort of anti-vaxxers tend to get used a lot in media reports, simply because they tend to be the people reporters (and for that matter, Dopers) are likely to have easy access to. But I’m not sure they actually make up that large a chunk of the non-vaccinated. [From _Pediatrics_ 2004](http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15231927/) Not hippy dippy but well educated and mostly White. > [@](#): > > Unvaccinated children tended to be white, to have a mother who was married and had a college degree, to live in a household with an annual income exceeding 75,000 dollars, and to have parents who expressed concerns regarding the safety of vaccines and indicated that medical doctors have little influence over vaccination decisions for their children. Unvaccinated children were more likely to be male than female. Annually, approximately 17,000 children were unvaccinated. The largest numbers of unvaccinated children lived in counties in California, Illinois, New York, Washington, Pennsylvania, Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Utah, and Michigan. States that allowed philosophical exemptions to laws mandating vaccinations for children as they entered school had significantly higher estimated rates of unvaccinated children. [More from an article in 2013.](http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4162046/#R25) Still not hippy dippy but attracted to alternative medicine. And a bit more likely to trust a friend’s story about alleged harm from a vaccine, or a celebrity assessment. > [@](#): > > A case-control study of unvaccinated children claiming non-medical exemption reported significantly lower perceived vaccine safety (61% vs. 15%) and efficacy (54% vs. 17%), lower perceived disease susceptibility (58% vs. 15%) and severity (51% vs. 18%), and low trust in the government (40% vs. 23%) compared with vaccinated children.31 Reasons relating to perceived vaccine safety most often cited by parents were vaccines causing harm (69%) and overloading of the child’s immune system (49%). Further, parents of unvaccinated children were 4 times more likely to use services of alternative medicine providers such as a chiropractor or an acupuncturist.31 Other studies have reported similar findings on parental perceptions to routine childhood immunizations.29,31-36 … > > … To assess parent’s trust in vaccine information received from different sources, Freed et al. administered online surveys in a nationally representative sample of parents with children less than 18 y of age.33 The main outcome of the study was credibility in the source of vaccine safety information used by parents. Parents in the study reported that they most often trusted their child’s pediatrician for safety information (76%), followed by other healthcare providers (26%), government vaccine experts (23%), and family and friends (15%).33 At least 26% of the parents had placed some trust in celebrities. Seventy-three percent of the parents placed at least some trust in other parents who believed that their child was harmed by a vaccine. Further, there were gender differences among parents. Women were more likely than men to place at least some trust in parents claiming a vaccine hurt child, as well as celebrities, television shows, magazines and news articles for vaccine safety. … ---
**Author:** ![Jeff\_Lichtman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jeff_lichtman/32/1531_2.png) [@Jeff\_Lichtman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jeff_Lichtman)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2015, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/48 "2015-02-03T03:16:11Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > Measels might burn through one of those schools, and in doing so would cause much pain, discomfort and a considerable expense in both direct treatment and in perventative measures, but that’s not going to cause the hundreds or thousands of cases you’d need to make more than one death likely (note the size of the incoming classes in that article are in the teens). OK. I did some calculations and figured that with a death rate of 0.001 there would have to be around 1680 cases for the probability of at least two deaths to hit 50%. As of today, there have been about 100 cases in the U.S. There would have to be almost 17 times that number of cases for two deaths to become more likely than not. This isn’t likely to happen unless an epidemic gets started in a pocket of unvaccinated people. The vaccination rate in the U.S. as a whole is high enough to cause herd immunity. If measles took hold in, say, a community of several thousand people with only a 50% vaccination rate, there could be enough cases for multiple deaths to become likely. As I mentioned before, measles is a much worse disease for people with compromised immune systems. It will be a real shame if someone who is undergoing radiation treatment dies from the measles. ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2015, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/49 "2015-02-03T03:50:17Z")
> [@Jeff\_Lichtman](#): > > As I mentioned before, measles is a much worse disease for people with compromised immune systems. It will be a real shame if someone who is undergoing radiation treatment dies from the measles. Its also bad for infants. And the reason I think this is striking home is that every middle class American knows people who have taken either kids on a Make a Wish trip or an infant to Disney. The narrative simply writes itself - even if it doesn’t happen. Suddenly, the narrative features a kid without hair, their parents begging other parents to protect their kid via herd immunity. That wasn’t a prominent feature of the narrative before - and its a powerful one. (I’m one of those weird Disney fans whose other message board is for weird Disney fans. And lots and lot of people take their infants to Disney. I think its risky, myself, until your kid has been through their full vaccination cycle - too many people, too close a space, and who knows what the vaccination beliefs of the Mom on Dumbo before you are). ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2015, 6:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/50 "2015-02-03T06:10:42Z")
> [@jz78817](#): > > I think we have to get past this phase of “all opinions are equally valid and deserve equal consideration.” I hope for vaccinations and in general. It’s both the “precious snowflake” generation that my opinion is valid, dammit. And general acceptance of false equivalency. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2015, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/51 "2015-02-03T15:03:10Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > I keep reading snide ant-religious quips here, as if mostl anti-vaxxers are fundamentalist Christians and ignorant yahoos of some sort. > > It’s not true. In reality, the anti-vaxxers tend to be well educated, politically liberal and vaguely “spiritual but not religious.” > > The typical anti-vaxxer isn’t a Baptist roaring, “God will protect my child from measles.” It’s a granola-eating neo-hippie saying, “Vaccines are a plot by big Pharma to make money. I protect my child from disease by giving him bean sprouts and a gluten free diet.” > > It’s not a coincidence that there are more rabid anti-vaxxers in Marin County than in Broward County. I’m not talking about religious weirdos in my post; I’m talking about my peers in suburban Dallas. In general, they’re white, college-educated and professional, and for whatever reason, their risk-assessment circuitry has gone awry and they think there’s a bigger threat to their children becoming autistic or obese or whatever from vaccinations than there is from the diseases that are being vaccinated against. One guy 10 years ago seemed eccentric, but when it’s 1 in 3 of people you meet, it seems almost criminally irresponsible, because the very presence of herd immunity caused by very high vaccination rates is what makes it LOOK like the vaccines are a higher risk. I suspect that if the neo-hippies and others actually saw kids with whooping cough, TB, mumps, measles, tetanus, etc… like people did in the 1930s, they’d shut right up and march their kids to the doctors to get vaccinated tout suite. ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2015, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/52 "2015-02-03T15:22:49Z")
Unfortunately many of these people are too committed to their insanity to admit they’re wrong. If you really want to get pissed off, read [this article about the online reaction of anti-vaxxers to the Disney outbreak](http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/01/anti-vaccinators-react-to-measles-outbreak.html). These people are truly lost, and I fear that even the death of their own child would only strengthen their resolve. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2015, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/53 "2015-02-03T15:32:46Z")
Do I have a “cite” or stats showing the demographics of anti-vaxxers? No, I do not. But just for grins, let’s look at this graph from the New York Times, showing where measles outbreaks are now occurring: > **[Facts About the Measles Outbreak (Published 2015)](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/02/02/us/measles-facts.html)** > > A map of counties where cases have been reported so far this year, and a chart showing how the number of cases compares to previous years. Note well where the outbreaks AREN’T occurring! They AREN’T occurring in Alabama. Or Mississippi. Or Tennessee. Or Georgia. The Deep South, where you’d expect measles to be running rampant if the anti-vaxxers were largely the kinds of “fundies” mocked here on the SDMB, has been untouched by the measles. One thing I wonder about: what percentage of the unvaccinated kids in California are Mexican immigrants, be they legal or illegal. ---
**Author:** ![elmwood](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmwood/32/3060_2.png) [@elmwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elmwood)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2015, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/54 "2015-02-03T15:38:18Z")
I live in one of the most liberal/crunchy/hippie towns in the United States. My SO is a nurse at the local hospital, where she’s exposed on an almost daily basis to all kinds of nasties. I have a feeling that herd immunity will be almost nonexistent here. I had all my shots 30-40+ years ago, but I’m seriously considering re-vaccination. Thanks, hippies. ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2015, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/55 "2015-02-03T15:47:40Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > One thing I wonder about: what percentage of the unvaccinated kids in California are Mexican immigrants, be they legal or illegal. According to UNICEF, immunization rates in Mexico are [99% across the board](http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/mexico_statistics.html#115) (as of 2012). The US, by comparison, is in the [low 90s for all but DPT](http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/usa_statistics.html#115). . ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2015, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/56 "2015-02-03T17:11:40Z")
> [@DCnDC](#): > > According to UNICEF, immunization rates in Mexico are [99% across the board](http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/mexico_statistics.html#115) (as of 2012). > > The US, by comparison, is in the [low 90s for all but DPT](http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/usa_statistics.html#115). > > . Interesting. Thanks for the numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Hey\_Hey\_Paula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/85e7bf/32.png) [@Hey\_Hey\_Paula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hey_Hey_Paula)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2015, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/57 "2015-02-03T17:38:56Z")
Idle wondering that just occurred to me - do anti-vax parents who won’t vaccinate their children vaccinate their pets for rabies and such? ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2015, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/58 "2015-02-03T17:40:31Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > One thing I wonder about: what percentage of unvaccinated kids in California are Mexican immigrants, be they legal or illegal. It need not come in the backs of Mexicans, you know. Any state that sees a lot of overseas travelers is at exposure risk. Red states tend to not be these kind of states, so no big surprise measles isn’t turning up there. California has the double whammy of being both a travel hub and a state where anti-vaxxers are relatively common. ---
**Author:** ![Mithras](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f04885/32.png) [@Mithras](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mithras)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2015, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/59 "2015-02-03T17:52:02Z")
> [@Hey\_Hey\_Paula](#): > > Idle wondering that just occurred to me - do anti-vax parents who won’t vaccinate their children vaccinate their pets for rabies and such? A few days ago, I saw someone on Facebook make a couple ridiculous arguments to support their anti-vaccination stance along with a “the government has no right to tell me what to do with my family” claim. I don’t know why, as it wasn’t relevant to anything, but he made a point of mentioning that he gets his pets vaccinated. ---
**Author:** ![Count\_Blucher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c5a1d2/32.png) [@Count\_Blucher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Count_Blucher)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2015, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437/60 "2015-02-03T18:06:34Z")
Has anyone mentioned the [Christie waffle](http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/02/politics/chris-christie-vaccines/index.html) on vaccinations just this past week? Or the Rand Paul flat out endorsement of anti-vaxxers as of this morning? [“Vaccinations cause Profound Mental Disorders”](http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/02/politics/rand-paul-vaccine-effects/index.html) - CNN [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-feel-like-there-has-been-some-sort-of-phase-shift-in-the-opinion-on-vaccines-recently/711437.md?page=4)