# Does it make sense to play the Powerball now? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [January 10, 2016, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692 "2016-01-10T16:26:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Horatio\_Hellpop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/e5b9ba/32.png) [@Horatio\_Hellpop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatio_Hellpop)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2016, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692/21 "2016-01-10T22:05:50Z")
For all the talk of impossible odds, _somebody_ wins these things. If you don’t play, your odds are _zero_ in three billion. ---
**Author:** ![panache45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/panache45/32/64_2.png) [@panache45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/panache45)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2016, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692/22 "2016-01-10T22:11:56Z")
It makes more sense to buy a ticket when the jackpot is 10 million. The jackpot is less, but the odds of winning are greater. And I can live as luxuriously as I want on 10 million, with greater odds of winning. ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2016, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692/23 "2016-01-10T22:28:38Z")
> [@panache45](#): > > It makes more sense to buy a ticket when the jackpot is 10 million. The jackpot is less, but the odds of winning are greater. I’m not sure I follow you. Can you explain why you think the odds of winning are greater when the jackpot is smaller. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2016, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692/24 "2016-01-10T22:47:21Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > Clearly you’ve never purchased an airplane. interiors and instruments can get expensive. [I know!](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18993231&postcount=115) In fact I’ve probably [del]spent[/del] wasted more time than any normal person ever would on the capital and operating costs of the Boeing Business Jet. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Arkcon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/96bed5/32.png) [@Arkcon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Arkcon)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2016, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692/25 "2016-01-10T22:57:55Z")
> [@KarlGauss](#): > > I’m not sure I follow you. Can you explain why you think the odds of winning are greater when the jackpot is smaller. Fewer people, so you’re less likely to have to share. Some internet geniuses suggest playing the local lottery now. You might win a couple of million, and no one would notice, as they see the endless Powerball publicity. As if the news wasn’t searchable and archived forever. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2016, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692/26 "2016-01-10T23:15:54Z")
> [@Horatio\_Hellpop](#): > > For all the talk of impossible odds, _somebody_ wins these things. If you don’t play, your odds are _zero_ in three billion. How can the odds possibly ever be zero? A winning ticket could be given to you, or come floating in on a breeze through your open car window. And since the odds of that happening are realistically about the same as the odds of buying a winning ticket, namely close enough to zero for practical decision-making, the zero cost makes it a terrific cost-benefit! 😃 In more practical terms the average person has terrifically better odds of making significant money and other tangibles through smart investments, job benefits like bonuses and award trips, and just plain hard work at growing a business. Most people I know who buy lottery tickets buy them for whimsical amusement. I’ve done it myself. But when I’m stuck in a checkout behind someone buying a vast pile of lottery tickets like it was a regular occupation, and then handing over a pretty fair wad of cash, I really have to feel sorry for them. At that level it really is a tax on stupid. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2016, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692/27 "2016-01-10T23:32:43Z")
> [@racer72](#): > > Somebody will win. Only way to win is play. > [@Horatio\_Hellpop](#): > > For all the talk of impossible odds, _somebody_ wins these things. If you don’t play, your odds are _zero_ in three billion. > [@panache45](#): > > It makes more sense to buy a ticket when the jackpot is 10 million. The jackpot is less, but the odds of winning are greater. No, nobody has to win, and the odds aren’t any better. It’s not like every Powerball ticket is thrown into a big drum, and then a winner chosen from them. The winning numbers are chosen randomly. The ping pong balls don’t care whether no one chose those exact numbers, or everyone chose them. That’s why sometimes the jackpots roll over, and sometimes they get won two or three times in a row. The only way more players mean more winners is if the computer picking numbers assigns every possible number combination once, and not assign any combination twice until all combinations are assigned. I don’t know whether that’s how it works, or doesn’t work, but in any case, everything starts fresh next time, so the chances don’t improve from week to week. But $2 is cheap for a fantasy. I’ve already bought my ticket (singular) for Tuesday night. ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2016, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692/28 "2016-01-11T00:05:20Z")
> [@Arkcon](#): > > Fewer people, so you’re less likely to have to share. Some internet geniuses suggest playing the local lottery now. You might win a couple of million, and no one would notice, as they see the endless Powerball publicity. As if the news wasn’t searchable and archived forever. Sure, you’re less likely to share when fewer people play (i.e. when fewer tickets are purchased) but the odds of you having the correct numbers are unchanged (and never do change). ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2016, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692/29 "2016-01-11T00:14:45Z")
Missed the edit window. With respect to being more to likely to have to share the jackpot if more tickets have been sold, I am not sure that it makes much difference. For example, if twice as many tickets are sold, I’m not sure it follows that the winner will be twice as likely to have to share (i.e. I don’t believe it’s linear like that). It may be reminiscent of the way the likelihood changes that at least two people in a room will have the same birthday. In that case, as the number of people in the room increase, the likelihood goes up in a most non-linear fashion. Hopefully, someone who actually remembers his/her permutations and combinations will come along and set me straight. ---
**Author:** ![opossum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/2bfe46/32.png) [@opossum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/opossum)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2016, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692/30 "2016-01-11T03:32:00Z")
> [@beowulff](#): > > Generally, lotteries are a tax on people who are bad at math. > Today, however, it seems like it might make sense to buy a ticket. The odds of winning are something like 1/300,000,000 but the jackpot is over 1 Billion dollars, so at $2/ticket, the expected return is greater than 1. > > So, should I play? It never makes financial sense to play the Powerball, but it also never makes financial sense to think too much about how to spend $2.00, unless you are in really dire straits. So go ahead and have fun with it. ---
**Author:** ![usedtobe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ec9cab/32.png) [@usedtobe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/usedtobe)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2016, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692/31 "2016-01-11T03:53:55Z")
I just saw another of the “but the money didn’t buy happiness” stories which surface every time a huge lottery is in the news. They had to go back 30 years to find examples of ‘blew it all on hookers and blow and died penniless in a crack house’ stories. I’d risk it. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Universe\_Lashes\_Out](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8797f3/32.png) [@The\_Universe\_Lashes\_Out](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Universe_Lashes_Out)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2016, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692/32 "2016-01-11T04:01:46Z")
According to this [Business Insider](http://www.businessinsider.com/powerball-lottery-expected-value-jan-9-draw-2016-1) article, the jackpot needs to be almost $1.6 billion before the expectation turns positive. And that’s without factoring in the chances of splitting the prize. I know it’s up over a billion, but still not quite at the level that would even come close to making sense, economically speaking. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2016, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692/33 "2016-01-11T04:22:02Z")
> [@usedtobe](#): > > I just saw another of the “but the money didn’t buy happiness” stories which surface every time a huge lottery is in the news. > > They had to go back 30 years to find examples of ‘blew it all on hookers and blow and died penniless in a crack house’ stories. > > I’d risk it. Well I’ve seen many examples of people who were overcome by instant wealth. It wasn’t a function of blowing it all. It was a function of not understand that you can’t buy happiness. That’s different than understanding you can enjoy the finer things in life. yes I’d like to drive a Tesla with the ridiculous upgrade. But I also find it satisfying when my 16 year old car shifts smoothly through the gears and has a good stereo, air conditioner and heater. It’s more satisfying if I’m hauling friends or dragging tools around to help someone. To me that’s living large. ---
**Author:** ![Sunspace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunspace/32/1250_2.png) [@Sunspace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunspace)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2016, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692/34 "2016-01-11T04:34:07Z")
I saw on the news tonight that the odds of winning are now 1 in 292 million. At those odds, it’s more likely that I will step out of the house and get hit by lightning, an Elvis impersonator, and a bus at the same time. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2016, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692/35 "2016-01-11T04:39:22Z")
Are there legit websites where you can buy a ticket for this online for a non-US citizen? I’m getting contradictory info on this when trying to search for it and loads of dodgy looking websites. yes I understand stats and know it doesn’t make sense, I want the cheap thrill. is this a legit site? > **[Play Powerball Online with Official USA Tickets | theLotter](https://www.thelotter.com/lottery-tickets/usa-powerball/)** > > Play Powerball online safely and securely for your chance to win huge prizes as high as the record-breaking $1.58 billion jackpot. Buy Powerball tickets now. ---
**Author:** ![opossum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/2bfe46/32.png) [@opossum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/opossum)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2016, 4:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692/36 "2016-01-11T04:52:00Z")
> [@The\_Universe\_Lashes\_Out](#): > > According to this [Business Insider](http://www.businessinsider.com/powerball-lottery-expected-value-jan-9-draw-2016-1) article, the jackpot needs to be almost $1.6 billion before the expectation turns positive. And that’s without factoring in the chances of splitting the prize. I know it’s up over a billion, but still not quite at the level that would even come close to making sense, economically speaking. That’s a great argument against pulling your life savings out of wherever it’s invested and buying powerball tickets with it, but not a very good argument against buying a single $2.00 ticket, or even a few. $2.00 is pretty cheap entertainment these days. ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2016, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692/37 "2016-01-11T04:55:29Z")
I don’t really get the idea of buying a lottery ticket being “entertainment.” How long does this keep one entertained? ---
**Author:** ![Hocus\_Pocus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/41988e/32.png) [@Hocus\_Pocus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hocus_Pocus)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2016, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692/38 "2016-01-11T05:01:07Z")
I know that if I win I certainly won’t be leaving briefcases full of hundreds of thousands of dollars in a vehicle parked at a strip joint. You can bet on that… ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2016, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692/39 "2016-01-11T05:13:13Z")
> [@beowulff](#): > > I don’t really get the idea of buying a lottery ticket being “entertainment.” > How long does this keep one entertained? until the drawing date. Its lets you play “what if” and give you something to look forward to. I can certainly understand the appeal especially for people stuck in dead end jobs with no real chance of advancement. Unfortunately people who end up in dead end jobs are also the people least likely to manage their new wealth successfully… shrug. ---
**Author:** ![Skald\_the\_Rhymer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Skald\_the\_Rhymer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skald_the_Rhymer)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2016, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692/40 "2016-01-11T05:27:55Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > You need to calculate based on the after-tax jackpot, first of all. Then you need to account for the possibility of multiple winners. And finally you should factor in the diminishing marginal utility of money. Based purely on numbers I suspect it’s still a bad wager. Oh, good Athena. You are over thinking. Buy ONE ticket. Worrying about other winners is silly. Even if there are a hundred other winners, you still come out rich from spending two bucks, and you’re not out a significant amount of money. But only by one ticket, because with 292 million to one odds, a hundred tickets don’t noticeably improve your odds, but $200 actually works. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-it-make-sense-to-play-the-powerball-now/742692.md?page=3)