# Does Magic Exist? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 28, 2001, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650 "2001-04-28T16:59:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![Fenris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fenris/32/498_2.png) [@Fenris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fenris)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2001, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650/261 "2001-05-18T00:35:22Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Svinlesha \* > \*\* > > 1. Scientific research still hasn’t covered all the bases yet. There could conceivable be phenomena out there that we haven’t encountered, or been able to think about in a useful way. For example, one day someone may discover that the randomness of bifurcation points referred to in chaos theory actually _can_ be influenced in some strange way by the will of a human agent. It would require a completel reevaluation of our metaphysical assumptions should we discover something like that, but I suppose it could happen. (Misunderstand me right here: I’m not holding my breath.)\*\* To steal a bit from SF great Larry Niven: aa great argument against psychic phenomena is that it’s allegedly so rare. It’s **too damned useful** evolutionarily speaking, for the species to possess the ability to teleport, or beat the snot out of cave bears by _force of mind_ or to start a fire by shooting fireballs out one’s ass for it to be so rare. If the trait works like _every. other. human. characteristic_. it’s got a genetic component. It has to be inheritable even as a recessive. And, inevitably, we’d have been breeding for it. Even if the ability is just [sub]barely[/sub] noticable, it’s still useful. Imagine an archer who, by force of mind or magic(k) can make his arrows 5% more accurate. A tracker who can use psychometery to trace an elk 5% better. Hell, soemeone who can make himself just a trifle luckier by thinking real hard and chanting. Those what got the trait are gonna outsurvive those what don’t by **huge** margins. I’m not pretending this’s “proof”, but to me, it’s certainly another datapoint Fenris ---
**Author:** ![SPOOFE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@SPOOFE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SPOOFE)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2001, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650/262 "2001-05-18T04:22:13Z")
> [@](#): > > by force of mind or magic(k) can make his arrows 5% more accurate. A tracker who can use psychometery to trace an elk 5% better. Hell, soemeone who can make himself just a trifle luckier by thinking real hard and chanting. I’m pretty sure there’s a D&D skill that allows this. Suddenly I’m envisioning people like _The Simpsons_’ Comic Book Guy sitting behind a computer, wearing a viking helmet, and mumbling things like, “Magic MAY exist!” and “Worst magic spell ever!” ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2001, 8:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650/263 "2001-05-18T08:46:57Z")
[QUOTE] \*Originally posted by Svinlesha \* **glee** sez: > [@](#): > > \*\*Believing in magic is not an equally valid opinion! \*\* My previous sentence read : 1. Magic - we have no physical evidence, despite the fact that people have been making claims for centuries and spending huge amounts of time and money trying to prove it. > [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Svinlesha \* > I hope I’m not talking out of my butt here (one tries to maintain the spirit of the thread), but I don’t think that that’s what **Kumquat** , myself, and a few others here are arguing. I, at least, agree completely that a belief in the sort of magic that **Czar** , et al, are referring to is not equally valid to, say, a belief in the existence of pizza. Or I could say that it certainly isn’t on the basis of my own experience. Or in the experience of everyone else in the world. As a mathematician, I really don’t think you should use the phrase ‘not equally valid’ to compare the likelihoods of pizza and magic! 😃 > [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Svinlesha \* > > 1. Scientific research still hasn’t covered all the bases yet. There could conceivable be phenomena out there that we haven’t encountered, or been able to think about in a useful way. For example, one day someone may discover that the randomness of bifurcation points referred to in chaos theory actually _can_ be influenced in some strange way by the will of a human agent. But there has been centuries of research into magic! If it exists, wouldn’t some evidence have come to light by now? You don’t need to be a scientist to discover something. > [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Svinlesha \* It would require a completel reevaluation of our metaphysical assumptions should we discover something like that, but I suppose it could happen. As soon as anything can be repeatedly demonstrated, science accepts it. It has nothing to do with metaphysical assumptions (my dictionary defines these as 'the study of the mind…which cannot be studied experimentally), since there would be no physical evidence of these. Do magic and science will form a hypothesis as to how it works. Instantly, magic becomes scientific. That’s how the scientific method works. Scientists aren’t a bunch of people like the Mediaeval Church: ‘So, Galileo, you think the Earth is not the centre of the Universe…’ > [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Svinlesha \* Starting threads entitled, “Stupid fucks who believe in magic…” makes one sound pompous, arrogant, all-knowing, and, well, rather like a jerk. Well I wouldn’t have used that title (as you can see from my polite postings). > [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Svinlesha \* It is easy to discern that although a lot of people here are saying things like “believing in magic is not equally valid,” what they actually mean is, “Anybody who believes in magic, or even argues for the possibility of its existence, is a natu-born idiot.” I certainly don’t imply that. Look at my last post. I believe in aliens (elsewhere in the Universe, because of mathematics, not the anecdotal UFO ones!!!). Probability about 99%. I don’t believe in the Loch Ness monster. Probability about 0.01% (only because I’m a romantic 😉 ) I don’t believe in magic, \*\*because we should have found some evidence by now, with all the people looking for it. \*\*Probability about 0.000001%. 0.000001% is based on a guess as to how many magical experiments have been done. It is not high; it is not an equally valid opinion that magic doesn’t exist (my figures are of course 99.999999% that it doesn’t). ---
**Author:** ![Gary\_Kumquat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/4491bb/32.png) [@Gary\_Kumquat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gary_Kumquat)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2001, 8:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650/264 "2001-05-18T08:49:46Z")
\*\* > [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by JayAndrewAllen \* > (1) You have two options:[ol] > [li]Give evidence that Gary is a serial rapist. I have not done this.[/li][li]Given evidence that Gary is not a serial rapist. Do we really have to go through the whole Hume/Popper argument again, or do you accept that you cannot prove you are not a demented sexual attacker?[/li][/ol] I absolutely agree\*\*. I accept that I cannot prove that I am not a demented sexual attacker. Neither can you for that matter. So, if someone were to post the GD topic of “Could Gary ever be a demented sexual attacker.” it would be impossible to prove that I am not, never have been or never will be one. I’d imagine that is why the courts apply the standard of reasonable doubt, rather than absolute certainty. \*\* > [@](#): > > (2) No one has denied that you cannot prove that something doesn’t exist. WE DON’T HAVE TO. We have tons of evidence which indicates magick does NOT work. In other words, the magickal proposition - in those cases where it is falsifiable, and thus is a scientific proposition - has been falsified repeatedly. \*\* Sorry, but here is where I must fundamentally disagree. What you have done through those cases is demonstrate that it is statistically extremely unlikely that anyone currently has some knowledge of magic, or magical ability, or whatever. Things change. We constantly have to revise our beliefs about the universe and physics. [ul] [li]“There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable.” Albert Einstein, 1932[/li][li]“Louis Pasteur’s theory of germs is ridiculous fiction.” Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872.[/li][li]“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895 [/ul][/li]\*\* > [@](#): > > (3) Stop using Hume and Popper as if they’re your epistemological bitches. THEY ARE NOT. Hume and Popper were both ultra-empirical skeptics. Right again\*\*. But that does not mean you should only apply their logic to support their beliefs. You apply it to both sides. Look at the OP: > [@](#): > > Does Magic Exist?..Can you, or anyone, defy how we think we know the world works? Do you really think you can give a 100%, no margin for error answer of “definitely not”? ---
**Author:** ![Gary\_Kumquat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/4491bb/32.png) [@Gary\_Kumquat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gary_Kumquat)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2001, 8:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650/265 "2001-05-18T08:53:35Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by jab1 \* > \*\* > > > [@](#): > > > > \*Originally posted by Gary Kumquat \* > > \*\*I’d like to fully agree with the formerly armoured one. \*\* > > You would. \*\* Something to say, Jab? May I recommend email or the pit. ---
**Author:** ![SPOOFE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@SPOOFE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SPOOFE)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2001, 9:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650/266 "2001-05-18T09:33:48Z")
> [@](#): > > So, if someone were to post the GD topic of “Could Gary ever be a demented sexual attacker.” If someone were to start such a thread, it would be entirely inappropriate for people to respond with “You can’t prove that he’s NOT!” :rolleyes: Unfortunately, some people just can’t seem to realize this, even after being told several times… > [@](#): > > Do you really think you can give a 100%, no margin for error answer of “definitely not”? No, but you can give an answer that most sane and sensible people would accept as being an almost-definitely. Common sense is not mathematics, Gary. ---
**Author:** ![Gary\_Kumquat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/4491bb/32.png) [@Gary\_Kumquat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gary_Kumquat)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2001, 10:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650/267 "2001-05-18T10:04:28Z")
\*\* > [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by SPOOFE \* > If someone were to start such a thread, it would be entirely inappropriate for people to respond with “You can’t prove that he’s NOT!” :rolleyes: **Let’s see, JAA gives an analogy. I agree with it. And you roll your eyes at me? Why didn’t you raise that concern when JAA first suggested it?** > [@](#): > > Unfortunately, some people just can’t seem to realize this, even after being told several times… **I’m sorry, I didn’t realise there was a rule that said anything repeated several times had to be accepted without further question.** > [@](#): > > you can give an answer that most sane and sensible people would accept as being an almost-definitely. Common sense is not mathematics, Gary. \*\* So from now on we only apply common sense rather than logic? This is the same common sense that at previous times has held the world to be flat and air travel to be impossible, right? If we’re no longer capable of making similar mistakes to those made in the past, when did we reach this level of omniscience? You’ll excuse me if I’m not won over by these points. ---
**Author:** ![SPOOFE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@SPOOFE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SPOOFE)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2001, 10:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650/268 "2001-05-18T10:44:40Z")
> [@](#): > > Let’s see, JAA gives an analogy. I agree with it. And you roll your eyes at me? Why didn’t you raise that concern when JAA first suggested it? JAA’s analogy was to point out that when someone asks for something to be proven, pointing out that it can’t be disproven does NOT necessarily indicate that the thing exists. You are being deliberately obtuse and you know it. > [@](#): > > I’m sorry, I didn’t realise there was a rule that said anything repeated several times had to be accepted without further question. Then why your continued insistance that “Magic may exist”? Just because you choose to ignore the statements that disregard your arguments, that doesn’t mean your arguments are valid. > [@](#): > > So from now on we only apply common sense rather than logic? I did NOT say that, and I will thank you to keep your ignorance out of my mouth. I said that where logic fails to come up with a definite answer, we rely on common sense. > [@](#): > > You’ll excuse me if I’m not won over by these points. This from the man who’s entire argument resides on the word “may”. ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2001, 10:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650/269 "2001-05-18T10:51:03Z")
> [@](#): > > Does Magic Exist?..Can you, or anyone, defy how we think we know the world works? > [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Gary Kumquat \* > Do you really think you can give a 100%, no margin for error answer of “definitely not”? Gary, how about my % estimate of the chance magic exists? ---
**Author:** ![Gary\_Kumquat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/4491bb/32.png) [@Gary\_Kumquat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gary_Kumquat)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2001, 11:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650/270 "2001-05-18T11:18:34Z")
Spoofe, I’ll try to make this as clear as I can > [@](#): > > \*\* > > > [@](#): > > > > \*Originally posted by JayAndrewAllen \* > > (1) You have two options:[ol] > > [li]Give evidence that Gary is a serial rapist. I have not done this.[/li][li]Given evidence that Gary is not a serial rapist. Do we really have to go through the whole Hume/Popper argument again, or do you accept that you cannot prove you are not a demented sexual attacker?[/li][/ol] > > I absolutely agree\*\*. I cannot make it any more plain that the analogy you took exception to was first raised by Jab. Furthermore, I agreed with his point. This, in some way, you claim to be me “being deliberately obtuse”? > [@](#): > > **Just because you choose to ignore the statements that disregard your arguments, that doesn’t mean your arguments are valid.** I have tried to answer every one of the arguments raised at me, and if I’ve missed one please let me know and I’ll address it. As I’m sure you don’t want to be guilty of disregarding arguments, I would be grateful if you could address some of my issues. For starters, can you explain to me why, when people as learned as those quoted above have been wrong on issues of what is and is not possible, we should now be able to address such an issue with absolute certainty. > [@](#): > > **where logic fails to come up with a definite answer, we rely on common sense** Why? If there’s no definite answer, surely the correct thing to do is keep an open mind to an issue. Spoofe, let’s be honest. This argument is likely to circle round and round, ad nauseum. Neither of us is likely to give in or change stance. Surely we should either agree to differ, or take it to email to save the boredom of others? ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2001, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650/271 "2001-05-18T12:59:39Z")
Gary, since you’re in the mood to answer questions, try these: 1. Can you perform magic as I have described in this thread? 2. If not, can you link us with someone who _can_? 3. If you can answer “Yes” to either question #1 or #2, can you or this other person show it to us, please? For the record, I am NOT asking for 100% proof of the existance of “Magic”. I am merely asking for some solid evidence. ANY solid evidence. Got Magic? ---
**Author:** ![Gary\_Kumquat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/4491bb/32.png) [@Gary\_Kumquat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gary_Kumquat)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2001, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650/272 "2001-05-18T13:19:37Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Czarcasm \* > \*\*Gary, since you’re in the mood to answer questions, try these: > > 1. Can you perform magic as I have described in this thread? > 2. If not, can you link us with someone who _can_? > 3. If you can answer “Yes” to either question #1 or #2, can you or this other person show it to us, please?\*\* Certainly Czar, although I believe I’ve answered these already. 1. No 2. No ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2001, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650/273 "2001-05-18T13:26:49Z")
Hey, has someone cast invisibility on me? :eek: Gary, what about my maths? ---
**Author:** ![SaxFace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@SaxFace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SaxFace)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2001, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650/274 "2001-05-18T13:46:37Z")
What better way to see if magic exists than by doing the spells yourself? I would feel like an idiot doing these, but if anyone else wants to… These are from a website linked on Portal of Evil: [To change your eye color](http://wicca.drak.net/snwflak028/ecc.html) (temporarily, of course) [To levitate](http://wicca.drak.net/snwflak028/levi.html) [Sleeping spell](http://wicca.drak.net/snwflak028/ss.html) (this one might turn you into a permanent sleeper since you’re expected to let the candle burn all the way down) ---
**Author:** ![Gary\_Kumquat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/4491bb/32.png) [@Gary\_Kumquat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gary_Kumquat)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2001, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650/275 "2001-05-18T14:24:02Z")
Hello glee, sorry for the delay. You give magic a 0.000001% probability, on the basis that “we should have found some evidence by now”. You then give alien life a 99% probability, even though Fermi’s paradox uses exactly the same underlying logic that you used to discount the likelihood of magic existing(or more precisely, it says the evidence should have found us by now). Do you not view that as contradictory? I do not think there’s any real way of calculating an accurate probability for this. Carl Jung said it well > [@](#): > > When facts are few, speculations are most likely to represent individual psychology ---
**Author:** ![jab1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ee7513/32.png) [@jab1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jab1)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2001, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650/276 "2001-05-18T21:31:11Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Gary Kumquat \* > \*\* > > > [@](#): > > > > (2)We have tons of evidence which indicates magick does NOT work. In other words, the magickal proposition - in those cases where it is falsifiable, and thus is a scientific proposition - has been falsified repeatedly. > > Sorry, but here is where I must fundamentally disagree.\*\* You disagree that magick has been repeatedly falsified? Are you serious? [quote] \*\*[ul] [li]“There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable.” Albert Einstein, 1932[/li][li]“Louis Pasteur’s theory of germs is ridiculous fiction.” Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872.[/li][li]“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895 [/ul][/li][/quote] \*\*You know why these guys were wrong? Because they lacked essential information that had yet to be discovered and verified experimentally. But the difference between these claims and the claim that magic is real is that these were NEW claims. Little, if any, experimentation had been done at the times these claims were made. OTOH, magic has been attempted time and time again for millennia and we still lack empirical evidence that magic exists. > [@](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > Does Magic Exist?..Can you, or anyone, defy how we think we know the world works? > > \*\*Do you really think you can give a 100%, no margin for error answer of “definitely not”? \*\* Can you (or anyone else) give a 100%, no margin for error answer of “definitely yes”? ---
**Author:** ![ExTank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/35a633/32.png) [@ExTank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ExTank)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2001, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650/277 "2001-05-18T22:26:43Z")
**Jab1:** thanks for the link to Cecil’s column. Very interesting. As to your response, you’re assuming that _I’m_ assuming a direct effect. I’m well aware of ISL, as well as basic physical principles that argue against a direct effect. But if I can _physically_ grab an object, say a sturdy pole, and move an otherwise unmovable (by myself alone) 400lb. boulder by utilizing the mechanical advantage of a lever, then I admit the possibilty of _mentally_ grabbing a preexisting natural energy and directing it to do my work (lift a boulder, start a fire) for me. This is not to say that I actually believe that this is currently being done, which brings me to **Czarcasm’s** reply. The reason I didn’t conduct any research into the subject is simple: I don’t believe that this phenomena is in use by human beings at this time. It _might_ be, but I seriously doubt it. Why? Because, as others have noted, somebody certainly would have sat up and taken notice by now, and there would have been some more research conducted on the subject. _If_ it is happening right now, a couple of plausible reasons why no one has come forward might be: **1.** Fear of persecution; either as a freak, a loon, a menace to society, or as a lab rat (made to “disappear” to be locked away at Groom Lake for the rest of your life). **2.** Conspiracy of silence by the International Brotherhood of Mages, Sages, Wizards and Sorcerers. To keep this powerful and arcane knowledge safe until mankind can deal with it responsibly (okay, so I’ve read some cheesy fiction. Sue me.) **3.** It’s a natural talent of only a small percentage of the population _and_ it requires some practice, some methodology, to develop into a working ability. Thus there might pass entire generations w/o anyone actually doing this stuff for real. IOW: we’re in a dry spell of magic-using types. **4.** The practice requires such a radically different mind-set that any practioners, or anyone close to becoming practioners, are idenified as “mentally unstable” and institutionalized. Admitting the possibility of the existence of currently undefined areas of knowledge, or of potential avenues of human development, is a far cry from saying that I actually believe that these areas or avenues will come to be. I’m not about to cash out my 401k and sink it into “Magitronics Research & Development”. And fiscal reluctance notwithstanding, I’d rather not assign “probabilities” to either of these areas; to my way of thinking, that may artificially limit us. Preclude us from fully realizing all of our potentials, or close off possibilities because someone thinks “that’s impossible”. As someone else noted, a lot of previously “impossible” things have come to pass and are accepted as routine. ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2001, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650/278 "2001-05-18T23:24:40Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Gary Kumquat \* > > You give magic a 0.000001% probability, on the basis that “we should have found some evidence by now”. You then give alien life a 99% probability, even though Fermi’s paradox uses exactly the same underlying logic that you used to discount the likelihood of magic existing (or more precisely, it says the evidence should have found us by now). What is Fermi’s paradox? People have been earnestly testing for magic for centuries. We haven’t explored much of our Solar System yet, let alone the rest of the Universe. > [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Gary Kumquat \* > I do not think there’s any real way of calculating an accurate probability for this. Well there probably isn’t. But you said earlier: ‘Give evidence that magic exists. No one has done this… Prove it doesn’t exist… Do you accept this? If you do, then all that’s left is individual opinions, **each with equal validity** …’ As a mathematician, I wanted to put that into context. OK, you object to a 0% probability of magic (I agree, we can’t usually prove a negative). But I strongly disagree that the existence of magic is a 50% chance. Isn’t my figure far more accurate than yours? ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2001, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650/279 "2001-05-19T00:39:36Z")
Gary: glee referred to life in the universe, while Fermi’s paradox applies mostly to life within the galaxy. Fermi’s paradox: Developed during the Manhattan Project, over dinner. It was the consensus that there had to be (non-terrestrial) life in the galaxy, given the shear number of stars. Fermi proposed a paradox: given that, where are the aliens? It’s been calculated that even at sublight speeds, it would take only about 50 million years to colonize the galaxy. Thus, if there were intelligent extraterrestrials, we would know about them. Distances between galaxies are much bigger though. glee: Do you think non-specialists should forgo assigning probabilities beyond, say, 95%? Absent my knowledge of Fermi’s paradox, I might be inclined to assign a 99% probability to the existence of extra-solar intelligent life in the Milky Way galaxy. And this assignment would be inappropriate. Gary: I think it might be simpler just to say that we don’t know anything with 100.00000000000000% probability. But this is really a fairly trivial observation. Loch Ness fans unite! Nessie rules at 0.01%!!! ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2001, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-magic-exist/63650/280 "2001-05-19T00:43:10Z")
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