# Does Pelosi have an October Surpise in the works? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 24, 2020, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453 "2020-02-24T21:11:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2020, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453/1 "2020-02-24T21:11:46Z")
I have no factual basis for wondering this, and it’s probably just lingering impeachment letdown. But still: [ol] [li]Throughout the fall, while the impeachment inquiry was building steam, we heard about financial (and other) revelations the Trump team was fighting in court[/li][li]Most of the early decisions went against Trump, whose team appealed further[/li][li]Rather than waiting out these appeals, House Democrats went ahead with impeachment on the relatively narrow scope of the Ukraine events[/li][li]Since impeachment failed to remove Trump we’ve heard next to nothing about his tax returns, the Deutsche Bank stuff, etc.[/li][/ol] Why didn’t the Dems wait? My theory: Pelosi knew there was absolutely nothing that could come out that would make 20 R senators vote to convict, and anything related to the impeachment would be old news by November. But she knows (or is fairly confident) that once the Trump teams runs out of appeals, there is nuclear material in those financial records – stuff that will reveal him as, if not an outright traitor, at least an unwttling dupe of Putin. Stuff that the Dem candidate can destroy him with. Not getting my hopes up, but still. I can’t believe with three-plus years of this administration Ukraine was the worst, most unlawful thing Trump has done. Am I delusional? ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2020, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453/2 "2020-02-24T21:17:39Z")
Yes. If anybody had a smoking gun, we’d have seen it already. There may be one out there somewhere, but if so, it remains undiscovered for now. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2020, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453/3 "2020-02-24T21:21:38Z")
> [@Oakminster](#): > > Yes. If anybody had a smoking gun, we’d have seen it already. There may be one out there somewhere, but if so, it remains undiscovered for now. Well, right, that’s my point. Maybe I should have simply asked: **Is there a smoking gun still tied up in court, and will we see it before November?** ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2020, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453/4 "2020-02-24T21:46:35Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > Well, right, that’s my point. Maybe I should have simply asked: **Is there a smoking gun still tied up in court, and will we see it before November?** Nope. The closer we get to the election, the more reluctant judges are likely to be to do something that would influence it. We’re only about 8 months away from the election. Those legal cans are getting kicked down the road until after all that is over. ---
**Author:** ![Icarus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icarus/32/72_2.png) [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2020, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453/5 "2020-02-24T22:04:22Z")
I am convinced that there is absolutely nothing that Trump could do, or that anyone (especially a Democrat!) could accuse him of that would make one damn bit of difference. ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2020, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453/6 "2020-02-24T22:08:50Z")
> [@Icarus](#): > > I am convinced that there is absolutely nothing that Trump could do, or that anyone (especially a Democrat!) could accuse him of that would make one damn bit of difference. At least in my state, Trump could rape a nun on the White House lawn, and his base–including my Senator and Congresscritter, would blame the nun for being in Trump’s reach. ---
**Author:** ![Icarus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icarus/32/72_2.png) [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2020, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453/7 "2020-02-24T22:11:59Z")
> [@Oakminster](#): > > At least in my state, Trump could rape a nun on the White House lawn, and his base–including my Senator and Congresscritter, would blame the nun for being in Trump’s reach. Oh I disagree, only Democrats rape. Rape doesn’t exist in the Republican world. (Did I go too far? I went too far, didn’t I?) ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2020, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453/8 "2020-02-24T22:16:18Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > there is nuclear material in those financial records – stuff that will reveal him as, if not an outright traitor, at least an unwttling dupe of Putin. Stuff that the Dem candidate can destroy him with. What is this “nuclear financial stuff” going to do that 13,000 Tweets, Ukraine Biden investigation, emoluments, Russia interference, firing Comey, Flynn resignation, Trump University, and other such things didn’t? We keep hearing this over and over again: “THIS is going to be what sinks Trump’s presidency!” And then, “No, no, THIS is what will do it!” ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2020, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453/9 "2020-02-24T22:41:14Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > What is this “nuclear financial stuff” going to do that 13,000 Tweets, Ukraine Biden investigation, emoluments, Russia interference, firing Comey, Flynn resignation, Trump University, and other such things didn’t? > We keep hearing this over and over again: “THIS is going to be what sinks Trump’s presidency!” And then, “No, no, THIS is what will do it!” I’ve said similar things myself – that Trump won’t self-destruct. But what if there’s, say, irrefutable evidence that he’s hundreds of millions in debt to Russian mobsters? That wouldn’t just be some blatant misbehavior. It would be evidence of a motivation for treason – maybe not enough to convict, but certainly enough to make millions of R voters suspect they’d been had. ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2020, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453/10 "2020-02-24T22:46:58Z")
> [@Icarus](#): > > I am convinced that there is absolutely nothing that Trump could do, or that anyone (especially a Democrat!) could accuse him of that would make one damn bit of difference. Yep. Because it worked so well last time (“grab 'em by the p\*ssy”). ---
**Author:** ![Icarus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icarus/32/72_2.png) [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2020, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453/11 "2020-02-24T22:53:39Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > I’ve said similar things myself – that Trump won’t self-destruct. But what if there’s, say, irrefutable evidence that he’s hundreds of millions in debt to Russian mobsters? That wouldn’t just be some blatant misbehavior. It would be evidence of a motivation for treason – maybe not enough to convict, but certainly enough to make millions of R voters suspect they’d been had. Fake news! Who, on this green earth, that would be considered a credible source, could present evidence in any form (including the infamous pee tape), that would move the needle for his supporters? There is nobody that they would believe. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2020, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453/12 "2020-02-24T22:57:02Z")
> [@Icarus](#): > > Fake news! Who, on this green earth, that would be considered a credible source, could present evidence in any form (including the infamous pee tape), that would move the needle for his supporters? There is nobody that they would believe. Okay, maybe not, but I’m not asking **Will Rs believe it?** I’m asking, **Is there even an “it” coming?** I’m really trying to grasp why they would have gone forward with the impeachment when it seemed like much more potent evidence of Trump misdeeds was a ruling away. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2020, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453/13 "2020-02-24T23:15:12Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > Not getting my hopes up, but still. I can’t believe with three-plus years of this administration Ukraine was the worst, most unlawful thing Trump has done. Am I delusional? It’s a judgment call. I’d say that having his family foundation closed by New York State last year, because of taking charity money for his own use, was marginally worse. ---
**Author:** ![ChickenLegs](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecc23a/32.png) [@ChickenLegs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ChickenLegs)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453/14 "2020-02-25T00:08:10Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > Not getting my hopes up, but still. I can’t believe with three-plus years of this administration Ukraine was the worst, most unlawful thing Trump has done. Am I delusional? This was worse: [https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-stole-pancakes-forgot-relative-was-dead-while-visiting-family-cousin-claims-1459388](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-stole-pancakes-forgot-relative-was-dead-while-visiting-family-cousin-claims-1459388) ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453/15 "2020-02-25T00:18:24Z")
1. No, Pelosi doesn’t have an October surprise up her sleeve. 2. What Trump and Barr are doing with DOJ right now certainly rivals the Ukraine extortion as possibly the worst thing Trump’s done. We’re moving into banana-republic territory here. 3. Kids in cages comes pretty close too: it’s child abuse on an industrial scale. Thousands of children separated from their parents, tens of thousands cooped up in cages. ---
**Author:** ![eenerms](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/cdc98d/32.png) [@eenerms](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eenerms)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453/16 "2020-02-25T00:24:30Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > 1. No, Pelosi doesn’t have an October surprise up her sleeve. > > 2. What Trump and Barr are doing with DOJ right now certainly rivals the Ukraine extortion as possibly the worst thing Trump’s done. We’re moving into banana-republic territory here. > > 3. Kids in cages comes pretty close too: it’s child abuse on an industrial scale. Thousands of children separated from their parents, tens of thousands cooped up in cages. Kids in cages is the Obama administration ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453/17 "2020-02-25T00:36:27Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > I’ve said similar things myself – that Trump won’t self-destruct. But what if there’s, say, irrefutable evidence that he’s hundreds of millions in debt to Russian mobsters? That wouldn’t just be some blatant misbehavior. It would be evidence of a motivation for treason – maybe not enough to convict, but certainly enough to make millions of R voters suspect they’d been had. This would be spun as a good business decision. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453/18 "2020-02-25T00:45:02Z")
If we all knew she had a surprise, it wouldn’t be a surprise. However if we all think she doesn’t have a surprise, then anything would be a surprise. So I guess we’ll be surprised. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453/19 "2020-02-25T01:00:25Z")
As others have said, I don’t think an October Surprise is possible with this administration. We’ve seen an ongoing series of scandals and incompetence. Why would one more upset anyone who hasn’t already been convinced? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453/20 "2020-02-25T01:59:22Z")
I think it depends on the DeutschBank case. I listened to a report on NPR last week, they probably have the data that has been subpoened ready to go if the courts order it released, so that is something that could blow up real fast–maybe not a surprise, but the Bank was where Trump did most of his business when U.S. banks wouldn’t make loans to him, and if there is going to be an “October surprise” it would come out of there. But I tend to agree with Oakminister above the courts will move quite deliberately indeed on this. We shall see. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-pelosi-have-an-october-surpise-in-the-works/848453.md?page=2)