# Does plane travel need to be this safe? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [February 11, 2018, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651 "2018-02-11T22:13:52Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651/1 "2018-02-11T22:13:52Z")
How much cost would be saved if we settled for the same level of safety as auto travel? Is plane travel just scarier such that two planes went down every week, that people would just stop flying? WHat does that say about the risk assessment abilities of the public? And should the government spend so much in resources to cater to public fears rather than rational policymaking? And a survey, sort of. If plane travel cost half what it does now but was only as safe as driving a car, would you fly more, less, or avoid planes entirely? ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651/2 "2018-02-11T22:17:54Z")
Considering the cost to replace crashed planes, I doubt air travel would be cheaper. And where to you find enough suicidal pilots and flight attendants? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651/3 "2018-02-11T22:19:11Z")
Doesn’t stop people from driving. That is a good point though. Airline fleets aren’t that big, if they were losing planes at the rate we lose people to car crashes, their fleets would be depleted pretty quickly. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651/4 "2018-02-11T22:20:55Z")
[From Wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year) > [@](#): > > The table below shows the motor vehicle fatality rate in the United States by year from 1988 through 2016. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) 2016 data shows 37,461 people were killed in **34,436 motor vehicle crashes** , an average of 102 per day Since aircraft accidents are almost always 100% fatal, I imagine no one would fly. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651/5 "2018-02-11T22:25:57Z")
[USAToday](https://www.usatoday.com/story/todayinthesky/2013/06/12/boeing-predicts-commercial-aircraft-will-double-by-2033/2416131/) > [@](#): > > The commercial fleet today stands at 20,310 aircraft, Boeing says. Counting the withdrawal of older planes, the fleet is forecast to grow to 41,240 by 2032. So the current world supply would all crash within roughly 7 months. Good business model. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651/6 "2018-02-11T22:28:53Z")
It does put into perspective just how unsafe it is to get into your car though, doesn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651/7 "2018-02-11T22:32:36Z")
But what percentage of people traveling around in cars is that? You have to adjust for the percentage of travel (distance) per person. It might work out to a comparable figure. ---
**Author:** ![jasg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f0a364/32.png) [@jasg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jasg)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651/8 "2018-02-11T22:37:43Z")
In 2016, there were ~37,000 automobile [fatalities](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year). So, as noted above, 100+ fatalities per day. Table 1 [here](https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/press_releases/bts017_17) gives an average of 95 passengers per flight (932M/0.9718M) So, we would lose at least a plane per day - and give Airbus/Boeing a real boost! ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651/9 "2018-02-11T22:40:50Z")
It’s a matter of control. People are willing to accept the risk of death when driving a car because they believe that it won’t happen to them. So long as they keep their own hands on the wheel, they think that they’re fast enough, smart enough and alert enough to avoid an accident. They’re mostly wrong, of course, but that doesn’t change the fact that people are willing to face death if it’s at their own terms. In a plane, or in a train for that matter, you’re completely at someone else’s mercy. You have absolutely no control over your own fate. For most people, that’s a terrifying prospect, and the only reason they’d be willing to accept it is if the safety standards are much, much higher than they’d be willing to accept if they were the ones in control. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651/10 "2018-02-11T22:41:12Z")
How is “safeness” intended to be expressed, per the OP? And that’s just for starters. Automobile safeness can be tweaked by fiddling around with collision survivability and and collision prevention. With aircraft, you’re pretty much limited to adjusting prevention. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651/11 "2018-02-11T22:43:21Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > It’s a matter of control. > > People are willing to accept the risk of death when driving a car because they believe that it won’t happen to them. So long as they keep their own hands on the wheel, they think that they’re fast enough, smart enough and alert enough to avoid an accident. They’re mostly wrong, of course, but that doesn’t change the fact that people are willing to face death if it’s at their own terms. > > In a plane, or in a train for that matter, you’re completely at someone else’s mercy. You have absolutely no control over your own fate. For most people, that’s a terrifying prospect, and the only reason they’d be willing to accept it is if the safety standards are much, much higher than they’d be willing to accept if they were the ones in control. I agree totally. If buses and trains had the same fatality rate as cars, people would be terrified to use them. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651/12 "2018-02-11T22:46:54Z")
[Aviation safety](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_safety) > [@](#): > > The number of deaths per passenger-mile on commercial airlines in the United States between 2000 and 2010 was about 0.2 deaths per 10 billion passenger-miles.[13][14] For driving, the rate was 150 per 10 billion vehicle-miles for 2000 : 750 times higher per mile than for flying in a commercial airplane. There were no fatalities on large scheduled commercial airlines in the United States in 2015 for the sixth year running. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651/13 "2018-02-11T22:53:52Z")
> [@Jacquernagy](#): > > I agree totally. If buses and trains had the same fatality rate as cars, people would be terrified to use them. And what about self-driving cars? The users of those are ceding a portion of personal control over the outcomes of their trips. How large (in perceived percentage) is that portion? And how closely does that map onto the perceived percentage of increased survivability of a bus or train trip? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651/14 "2018-02-11T22:56:47Z")
> [@Jacquernagy](#): > > I agree totally. If buses and trains had the same fatality rate as cars, people would be terrified to use them. I wonder if this is just status quo bias. When cars were a new thing, a lot of people actually were terrified of the carnage they caused. I found this out from reading old newspapers. When tens of thousands of people were dying who in the horse and buggy days weren’t dying, it was shocking and tons of people swore they would never get into one of those deathtraps, I’m sticking to my horse thankyouverymuch. But by the 1950s, people were just like, “Yeah, so this Memorial Day Weekend, 1000 people are going to die and it’s no big deal”. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651/15 "2018-02-11T22:58:51Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > And what about self-driving cars? The users of those are ceding a portion of personal control over the outcomes of their trips. How large (in perceived percentage) is that portion? And how closely does that map onto the perceived percentage of increased survivability of a bus or train trip? That’s why I suspect that if self driving cars aren’t held to nearly aviation standards of safety, a lot of people will freak out. And some will freak out even then. But this is one area where I put my foot down. The government should regulate self driving cars vs. people driven cars using cold, hard stats and risk assessment. Killing 10,000 more people per year so that people can “feel” safer and more in control is terrible policy. If self-driving cars kille 20,000 people per year whereas human driven cars kill 30,000, then self-driving cars are awesome! But I’m aware that people will consider that unacceptable carnage. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651/16 "2018-02-11T22:59:53Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > And what about self-driving cars? The users of those are ceding a portion of personal control over the outcomes of their trips. How large (in perceived percentage) is that portion? And how closely does that map onto the perceived percentage of increased survivability of a bus or train trip? Yes, I was wondering this. I tend to expect that we will demand an irrationally high safety standard for self-driving cars (and for pilotless aircraft) because of the perceived loss of control. ---
**Author:** ![rbroome](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/838e76/32.png) [@rbroome](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rbroome)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651/17 "2018-02-11T23:00:47Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > And what about self-driving cars? The users of those are ceding a portion of personal control over the outcomes of their trips. How large (in perceived percentage) is that portion? And how closely does that map onto the perceived percentage of increased survivability of a bus or train trip? And that is why self-driving cars will take a lot longer to become accepted than Silicon Valley thinks. I suspect that self-driving cars will become popular in limited circumstances-probably interstate highways and urban driving where speeds are so low that careless (as opposed to stupid) accidents are rarely fatal. For really tough driving like commuting, rural, and suburban driving, it will take a long time. ---
**Author:** ![Xema](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/9de053/32.png) [@Xema](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xema)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651/18 "2018-02-11T23:31:01Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > So the current world supply [of airliners] would all crash within roughly 7 months. The OP postulates air travel with “the same level of safety as auto travel”. It seems a very strange leap to suggest this means a number of fatal airline crashes per year equal to the number of fatal auto crashes. One way to put this into sensible perspective is to note that the number of registered autos in the US is around 264 million. 34,000 fatal crashes a year means around one car in 7,600. This is probably misleading, because the fatal road crash statistic likely includes truck crashes. If one airliner in 7,600 crashed annually, that would be a total of just under three fatal crashes a year. ---
**Author:** ![Xema](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/9de053/32.png) [@Xema](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xema)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651/19 "2018-02-11T23:43:13Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It does put into perspective just how unsafe it is to get into your car though, doesn’t it? Not really. An important reason is how much effect the actions and habits of the driver have on the auto accident rate. If you fasten your belts, don’t drink and drive, avoid excessive speed, adjust your driving to weather conditions, etc. your chance of being killed in a car crash can be dramatically lower than the national average. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651/20 "2018-02-11T23:50:33Z")
> [@Xema](#): > > Not really. > > An important reason is how much effect the actions and habits of the driver have on the auto accident rate. If you fasten your belts, don’t drink and drive, avoid excessive speed, adjust your driving to weather conditions, etc. your chance of being killed in a car crash can be dramatically lower than the national average. Yes. **adaher** ’s problem is to assume that the probability of getting into a car crash is the same for all people at all times. The probability of a plane crash is, assuming you stay away from Russian and Malaysian airlines, that is. Self driving cars make the situation more like the airplane situation than the current car situation, which should improve things a lot. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-plane-travel-need-to-be-this-safe/808651.md?page=2)