# Does the Buffet Challenge debunk psychic powers once and for all? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 21, 2014, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244 "2014-03-21T20:14:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![The\_Second\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@The\_Second\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Second_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2014, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/21 "2014-03-21T22:03:39Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > You happen to know of one? I know of people who are wrong far more than 50 percent of the time, such that you could use their predictions and go the other way and be right by more than just chance. ---
**Author:** ![nevadaexile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/eb8c5e/32.png) [@nevadaexile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nevadaexile)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2014, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/22 "2014-03-21T22:16:48Z")
No, it doesn’t. Psychic’s powers only work when you believe in them and they aren’t under any pressure or around skeptics. They also work far less than 50% of the time and they often involve asking numerous questions until their “abilities” start to kick into gear. So the Buffett Challenge was a poor test of their abilities. They’d do better with a television series and during readings given to people with more money than brains. Or better still, with desperate people seeking comfort. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2014, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/23 "2014-03-21T22:59:50Z")
> [@The\_Second\_Stone](#): > > You are assuming that psychics don’t have an error rate, and are 100 percent correct. A 60 percent correct psychic would be quite useful for most gambling purposes. “Well folks, when you are right 52% of the time that means you are wrong 48% of the time.” -Smooth Jimmy Apollo ---
**Author:** ![buddha\_david](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ee7513/32.png) [@buddha\_david](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buddha_david)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2014, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/24 "2014-03-21T23:19:02Z")
> [@lesh17](#): > > Who wouldn’t want to score a cool billion the easy way, via flux capacitor? With inflation, a billion dollars can only buy 10 whistle pops in the year time travel was invented. Trust me, I’ve already gone there to check. ---
**Author:** ![TonySinclair](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/49beb7/32.png) [@TonySinclair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TonySinclair)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2014, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/25 "2014-03-21T23:38:59Z")
> [@The\_Second\_Stone](#): > > You are assuming that psychics don’t have an error rate, and are 100 percent correct. No, I’m not. I’m only asking for one of them to be right, and just on this one occasion. If only a small percentage of claimed psychics were real, and even that small percentage were only right once a month, they would still have to split the prize a thousand ways (which would still be a million bucks each). This is not a situation where the psychic is forced to produce an answer on the spot, where she may be tired, upset, or just not in the mood. This contest was announced several weeks in advance, and was probably being planned for at least several months before that. And to an Arisian (or other truly competent thinker), it could have been predicted millions of years ago. It’s kid stuff compared to what most psychics claim they can do. You’re looking at it like 63 separate events. But no, turning in the winning bracket is just one event, which happens to depend on 63 binary choices. 63 components is infinitesimal compared to the number of things that contribute to almost any everyday event. Whether you scratch your nose in the next ten seconds or not might depend on way more than 63 things, with way more than two possible outcomes each. Suppose a kid went missing last week, and in desperation, the cops call in a psychic who claims she knows where he is. How many thousands of variables go into her knowledge of that? He could have run off and joined the circus, or just hitched a ride with a random passing car. Could be literally anywhere in the country by now. Or he could have been kidnapped, and the villains have had plenty of time to take him anywhere in the world, or to kill him and hide his body anywhere. There are zillions of variables that determine just whether he’s still alive or not, let alone where in the world he is. It may come down to an extra ten seconds he spent tying his shoe that determines whether he catches a ride with an off-duty cop who promptly returns him to his parents, or Jeffrey Dahmer. And yet, missing kids seems to be a specialty of psychics. By the way, in this and future posts, I acknowledge that psychic powers include more than precognition, but I’ll continue to use the term “psychic” for convenience. I think the context makes it clear what we mean, although I remember an episode of _Smallville_ where a gambler used telekinesis to make athletes stumble so he could win his bets. ---
**Author:** ![cmosdes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@cmosdes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmosdes)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2014, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/26 "2014-03-21T23:50:01Z")
> [@TonySinclair](#): > > 2^63, which is 9.22\*10^18. If you entered 20 times a second, every second since the big bang, you would just about make it. > > Unfortunately, they allowed only one entry per contestant. That is true only if every game is truly a coin flip chance for each time. If you take the very simple step of using the rankings to weigh the odds for each team, the number would go WAY down. Into the billions, I think. Not that I believe in psychics in any way, but they do NOT have to be right more than 50% of the time to be psychic. They just need to be right more than random chance. A psychic that leads investigators to the remains of missing person 5% of the time is probably going to be very interesting to the police. ---
**Author:** ![Amateur\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/59ef9b/32.png) [@Amateur\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Amateur_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2014, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/27 "2014-03-21T23:55:21Z")
There isn’t any need to debunk claims of psychic powers, since 200 years of research and testing hasn’t found even a trace of any such thing existing. Like the patent office’s prima facie refusal to accept submission of any form of perpetual motion machine, I think it’s time the rational community stops wasting time even discussing psychic powers. Show us one - power or PMM - and we’ll pick up the thread. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/28 "2014-03-22T00:05:42Z")
> [@TonySinclair](#): > > There are zillions of variables that determine just whether he’s still alive or not, let alone where in the world he is. It may come down to an extra ten seconds he spent tying his shoe that determines whether he catches a ride with an off-duty cop who promptly returns him to his parents, or Jeffrey Dahmer. > > And yet, missing kids seems to be a specialty of psychics. > > By the way, in this and future posts, I acknowledge that psychic powers include more than precognition, but I’ll continue to use the term “psychic” for convenience. I think the context makes it clear what we mean, although I remember an episode of _Smallville_ where a gambler used telekinesis to make athletes stumble so he could win his bets. Finding missing kids is sensing their aura or some shit not making a prediction. ---
**Author:** ![TonySinclair](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/49beb7/32.png) [@TonySinclair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TonySinclair)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/29 "2014-03-22T00:12:44Z")
> [@cmosdes](#): > > That is true only if every game is truly a coin flip chance for each time. If you take the very simple step of using the rankings to weigh the odds for each team, the number would go WAY down. Into the billions, I think. The question asked how many entries would be needed to cover all possible outcomes. And as today’s results showed, that’s exactly what you need to do. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/30 "2014-03-22T00:12:38Z")
> [@TonySinclair](#): > > If only a small percentage of claimed psychics were real, and even that small percentage were only right once a month, they would still have to split the prize a thousand ways (which would still be a million bucks each). What if there are psychics who have only somewhat hazy perceptions that are mostly right, but with individual details wrong? He predicts what the next person who turns the corner will look like, and he’s always mostly right–gender, height, facial composition, build, his clothes–but the guy turning the corner doesn’t have a tattoo on his right bicep, like the psychic said he would, and he’s wearing sandals instead of sneakers. That would be pretty impressive psychic powers if he could do it consistently, even with some of the details wrong. But if he applied it to brackets, he might only get 75% right. Buffett keeps his billion, but the guy’s still a psychic. ---
**Author:** ![kanicbird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/5f8ce5/32.png) [@kanicbird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kanicbird)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/31 "2014-03-22T00:42:42Z")
Supernatural gifts is God acting through God’s children using God powers. My question to the OP is what does God need with the billion, which is already God’s, and for all the good it can do, why does God need that particular billion, which again is already God’s? In the context you use it, along with Randi’s million dollar challenge, it boils down to will God submit to the will of a person offering enough money, or other worldly things? You may not agree with me, but it is my explanation as to why these things don’t debunk any such thing. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/32 "2014-03-22T00:47:15Z")
> [@kanicbird](#): > > My question to the OP is what does God need with the billion, which is already God’s, and for all the good it can do, why does God need that particular billion, which again is already God’s? > > In the context you use it, along with Rani’s million dollar challenge, it boils down to will God submit to the will of a person offering enough money, or other worldly things. In the same line as this post, I hypothesize that the goat god Pan already has submitted the billion dollar-winning entry, but will win only in secrecy on pain of eternal damnation, so Buffet and Quicken will keep their filthy mouths shut. And Pan will spend the whole damn billion on hookers and blow, which will result in a roughly 300 year boom for Vegas hookers. Or psychics and gods aren’t real. ---
**Author:** ![AClockworkMelon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aclockworkmelon/32/10803_2.png) [@AClockworkMelon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AClockworkMelon)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/33 "2014-03-22T00:50:05Z")
> [@kanicbird](#): > > Supernatural gifts is God acting through God’s children using God powers. > > My question to the OP is what does God need with the billion, which is already God’s, and for all the good it can do, why does God need that particular billion, which again is already God’s? > > In the context you use it, along with Randi’s million dollar challenge, it boils down to will God submit to the will of a person offering enough money, or other worldly things? > > You may not agree with me, but it is my explanation as to why these things don’t debunk any such thing. Too right. A far more interesting question is “What does God need with the twenty bucks his servant charges to tell you what your lucky color is gonna be today?” ---
**Author:** ![kanicbird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/5f8ce5/32.png) [@kanicbird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kanicbird)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/34 "2014-03-22T00:52:28Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > In the same line as this post, I hypothesize that the goat god Pan already has submitted the billion dollar-winning entry, but will win only in secrecy on pain of eternal damnation, so Buffet and Quicken will keep their filthy mouths shut. And Pan will spend the whole damn billion on hookers and blow, which will result in a roughly 300 year boom for Vegas hookers. > > Or psychics and gods aren’t real. Pan again, oh problem child :(:smack: ---
**Author:** ![kanicbird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/5f8ce5/32.png) [@kanicbird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kanicbird)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/35 "2014-03-22T01:00:44Z")
> [@AClockworkMelon](#): > > Too right. > > A far more interesting question is “What does God need with the twenty bucks his servant charges to tell you what your lucky color is gonna be today?” I believe there is much corruption of gifts. In a related thread I believe many people, who can do such things, are given the gift of teacher. Their ‘divine’ purpose is telling the person what they themselves are perceiving and capable of perceiving. The ‘medium’ (for lack of a better word), has taken the gifting that they are the ones who can perceive it directly, IMHO they are deceived and only partially using their gifting, and can make some serious money in the process. I suspect it is allowed to continue because though they are taking God’s glory by glorifying themselves, they are helping God’s children (their ‘clients’) by revealing what God was trying to tell them directly. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/36 "2014-03-22T01:05:21Z")
Well kanicbird, why should anybody use any of their talents to help the world then? Why doesn’t God just do stuff himself instead of giving gifts to his children and expecting them to do it? ---
**Author:** ![kanicbird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/5f8ce5/32.png) [@kanicbird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kanicbird)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/37 "2014-03-22T01:14:38Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Well kanicbird, why should anybody use any of their talents to help the world then? Because God’s children (all of us) have it in our heart to do so by our divine nature. > [@](#): > > Why doesn’t God just do stuff himself instead of giving gifts to his children and expecting them to do it? Because we are God’s children and we need to learn how to inherent all God has for us and to use the ‘God powers’ in appropriate and good ways as we will one day command such powers in far excess of the Long Island Medium. Your question I relate to this why do parents not do everything for their child and thereby keep that child a eternal baby. Why should the parents teach anything to their child, or give them any responsibility if the parents can provide all the child’s need’s? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/38 "2014-03-22T01:19:39Z")
> [@kanicbird](#): > > Because we are God’s children and we need to learn how to inherent all God has for us and to use the ‘God powers’ in appropriate and good ways as we will one day command such powers in far excess of the Long Island Medium. What would be inappropriate about using your gift to win a million dollars and eliminate malaria with the money? ---
**Author:** ![Maeglin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8baadc/32.png) [@Maeglin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maeglin)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/39 "2014-03-22T01:21:59Z")
I can’t pick basketball, I can only speak with the dead. Your dead aunt didn’t say shit about brackets. ---
**Author:** ![nevadaexile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/eb8c5e/32.png) [@nevadaexile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nevadaexile)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/40 "2014-03-22T01:23:52Z")
> [@The\_Second\_Stone](#): > > You are assuming that psychics don’t have an error rate, and are 100 percent correct. A 60 percent correct psychic would be quite useful for most gambling purposes. There hasn’t been a psychic who accuracy rate has routinely surpassed 50%. If there was, that person is hiding their talents and living a low-key lifestyle. That level of ability would have been noticed if they were not. They certainly wouldn’t have shows on basic cable channels or doing traveling shows as simply investing in the stock market would easily make them millions or billions. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244.md?page=3)