# Does the Buffet Challenge debunk psychic powers once and for all? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 21, 2014, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244 "2014-03-21T20:14:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![kanicbird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/5f8ce5/32.png) [@kanicbird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kanicbird)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/61 "2014-03-22T02:57:52Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Do you actually believe this crap? Well it’s a round about way, I perfer the direct way that if the child (gifted person) steps outside the path of Love they lose the power of Love. But yes the connections and power we cede to others empowers them, it is the reason for the ‘popular’ people, which in high school seem to lead everyone else, it is the power of all their followers, it is the reason for fame also IMHO. ---
**Author:** ![buddha\_david](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ee7513/32.png) [@buddha\_david](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buddha_david)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/62 "2014-03-22T03:55:45Z")
> [@Amateur\_Barbarian](#): > > Like the patent office’s prima facie refusal to accept submission of any form of perpetual motion machine, I think it’s time the rational community stops wasting time even discussing psychic powers. Just to play Devil’s Advocate – “psychic powers”, depending on how you define the term, have never been thoroughly debunked. The likelihood of such powers existing is extremely small, of course…but until they are thoroughly debunked, there’s a non-zero chance they may exist. Again, it depends on how you define the term. Perpetual Motion machines, on the other hand, have been proven impossible via Newton’s Second Law (or is it Third? I forget…) which is why the patent office refuses to acknowledge them. > [@Czarcasm](#): > > Believe it or not, one of the excuses some woosters use to skip The Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge is that James Randi is actually a powerful psychic that deliberately blocks their abilities. Hahaha…never heard _that_ one before! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/63 "2014-03-22T04:36:22Z")
> [@kanicbird](#): > > Let’s leave God out if it. > > Does money buy happiness? > > Let’s put God back into it. > > If God needs His child to get money why would God need to submit to human terms to get it? Because money IS a human term. You think God would prefer to magically create cash than let a righteous man win a lottery? And no, money doesn’t buy happiness but it has utility. You build a house with a hammer and you buy a hammer with money. ---
**Author:** ![buddha\_david](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ee7513/32.png) [@buddha\_david](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buddha_david)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/64 "2014-03-22T04:46:44Z")
> [@kanicbird](#): > > Let’s leave God out if it. > > Does money buy happiness? > > Let’s put God back into it. _“You put your left God in, you put your right God out…you put your left God in, and you shake it all about…”_ ---
**Author:** ![marshmallow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@marshmallow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/marshmallow)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/65 "2014-03-22T04:56:21Z")
Even in fantasy fiction where psychics, spirits, and omens actually exist it’s unclear and full of metaphors and usually only obvious in hindsight. Who wins this game guys? “The crimson bird crows at midnight.” Wow, thanks a lot spirits. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Second\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@The\_Second\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Second_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/66 "2014-03-22T05:02:59Z")
> [@nevadaexile](#): > > There hasn’t been a psychic who accuracy rate has routinely surpassed 50%. If there was, that person is hiding their talents and living a low-key lifestyle. That level of ability would have been noticed if they were not. > > They certainly wouldn’t have shows on basic cable channels or doing traveling shows as simply investing in the stock market would easily make them millions or billions. And that is exactly what the point should be. The only person I know of who ever made billions and billions in the stock market starting from nothing is Warren Buffet. Everyone else either started with a lot and/or played it very safe or went with one or two companies that they hitched their stars to, like Bill Gates. What makes Warren Buffet “psychic”? Careful study of the companies he is investing in and knowing what he is doing. I don’t know of anyone else ever who has done what he has done, but even he is frequently wrong. But correct far more often. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 10:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/67 "2014-03-22T10:23:41Z")
> [@TonySinclair](#): > > You seem to be saying getting his shoes wrong is like picking only 50-ish of the 63 winners. I’m saying getting his shoes wrong is more like getting all 63 winners right, but being a couple points off in the score of one of the games. But what you keep doing is redefining what a psychic is so that Buffett’s challenge proves there are no psychics. Suppose my suggestion is right, and there are psychics, let’s say, who can get 90% of the brackets correct before the teams are even named. He circles the seed numbers of a blank bracket page. Does it consistently, year after year. That would be astounding, right? Well, he loses Buffett’s challenge. ---
**Author:** ![kanicbird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/5f8ce5/32.png) [@kanicbird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kanicbird)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/68 "2014-03-22T11:58:14Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > And no, money doesn’t buy happiness but it has utility. You build a house with a hammer and you buy a hammer with money. This is irrelevant to the workings of God through God’s children. Your are talking about God who needs nothing from humanity (except God’s children’s returned love but that is another issue), it is God who has decided where the money and value goes to, it is God who moves it from person to person at God’s will and at God’s command. Using a fishing analogy, A fisherman whats to catch a smart fish to prove that smart fish exist, well more like to prove that smart fish don’t, so it puts it’s bait down. The smart fish knows that it is a trap and won’t touch it, the stupid fish constantly goes for it and are caught again and again. The fisherman claims fish are not smart. The smart fish laugh at this, and how Randi wastes his time suckering gullible people into believing that his carnival act proves anything. While he as no concept at all of what he is doing or how to go about it, totally clueless bumbling fool and entertaining to watch in some ways. And as I stated before the carnival style card readers, ones who are not working with divine insight, but by trickery, go hand in hand with Randi’s challenge as they are just different aspect of the same thing. So in a strange way are co-dependent. - Randi needs stupid fish to catch for his act. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/69 "2014-03-22T13:08:30Z")
> [@kanicbird](#): > > And as I stated before the carnival style card readers, ones who are not working with divine insight, but by trickery, go hand in hand with Randi’s challenge as they are just different aspect of the same thing. Show us the real deal-Name just _one_ that actually has psychic powers through “divine insight”. _Just one_. ---
**Author:** ![Amateur\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/59ef9b/32.png) [@Amateur\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Amateur_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/70 "2014-03-22T13:32:15Z")
> [@buddha\_david](#): > > Just to play Devil’s Advocate – “psychic powers”, depending on how you define the term, have never been thoroughly debunked. The likelihood of such powers existing is extremely small, of course…but until they are thoroughly debunked, there’s a non-zero chance they may exist. Again, it depends on how you define the term. No, you can’t prove a negative, as every other psychic who stubbornly insists their power is real mutters. You can, however, look at a 200-year track record with _zero_ positives, despite some significant attempts to find one, and shove the entire burden back over on the claimants without a moment of guilt. Anyone who wants to make claims of paranormal powers without walking through some form of Randi’s gate should be no more given attention than someone who runs around in spandex claiming to be a superhero. ---
**Author:** ![buddha\_david](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ee7513/32.png) [@buddha\_david](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buddha_david)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/71 "2014-03-22T15:49:27Z")
Here, I have a question: Are the Randi/Buffet challenges open to mechanical inventions, or mental powers only? Let’s say, hypothetically, someone invents a machine that can reliably determine what will happen in the future, up to and including every NCAA playoff game. Since it’s a machine that does not rely on mental powers, would Randi/Buffet refuse to pay out, or would they agree? (I suppose the machine itself could predict the answer…) ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/72 "2014-03-22T17:06:41Z")
> [@kanicbird](#): > > Pan again, oh problem child :(:smack: I thought [he was dead.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan_%28god%29#The_.22Death.22_of_Pan) It was in all of the papers. > [@kanicbird](#): > > Is that the path God has for God’s child? How would God’s child know without trying? If he succeeds and some good comes of it, wouldn’t that mean that God has blessed the endeavor? It’s not like He has spelt out every contingency in that book of His. It’s long, but a lot (Lot?) of it is just filler. ---
**Author:** ![Amateur\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/59ef9b/32.png) [@Amateur\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Amateur_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/73 "2014-03-22T18:07:12Z")
> [@buddha\_david](#): > > Here, I have a question: Are the Randi/Buffet challenges open to mechanical inventions, or mental powers only? > > Let’s say, hypothetically, someone invents a machine that can reliably determine what will happen in the future, up to and including every NCAA playoff game. Since it’s a machine that does not rely on mental powers, would Randi/Buffet refuse to pay out, or would they agree? (I suppose the machine itself could predict the answer…) I am not sure how the challenge would be worded, but I’d say building a machine that can evince a talent not explicable within our known framework of science would qualify. The prizes would be truly insignificant compared to the value of the machine, though. That’s the real point, isn’t it? We have enough well-grounded, well-thought fiction about what true telepaths, telekinetics, clairvoyants and the like could do; there wouldn’t be enough money in the world to buy every hour of their service. Truly not interested in wealth? Fine, they’d be one of the most famous people in history. Not into fame? They’d be able to do “good” of an unprecedented scale for anyone they thought worthy. But no, they go on talk shows and perform magic tricks. Riiiiight. ---
**Author:** ![buddha\_david](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ee7513/32.png) [@buddha\_david](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buddha_david)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/74 "2014-03-22T19:15:54Z")
> [@Amateur\_Barbarian](#): > > The prizes would be truly insignificant compared to the value of the machine, though. That’s the real point, isn’t it? I dunno 'bout that – a billion dollars could buy a whole mess of whistle pops. ---
**Author:** ![TonySinclair](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/49beb7/32.png) [@TonySinclair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TonySinclair)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/75 "2014-03-22T19:48:37Z")
> [@Stratocaster](#): > > But what you keep doing is redefining what a psychic is so that Buffett’s challenge proves there are no psychics. Suppose my suggestion is right, and there are psychics, let’s say, who can get 90% of the brackets correct before the teams are even named. He circles the seed numbers of a blank bracket page. Does it consistently, year after year. That would be astounding, right? Well, he loses Buffett’s challenge. Yes, that particular psychic does. But you seem to be talking about a curse, rather than probability. Your Cassandra is doomed to always get 10% of her picks wrong each year. But in the real world, someone who averages 90% is going to have some years better than that, and some years worse. Again, the games are binary outcomes. They play until there’s a winner, even if it takes ten overtimes. So you can’t be 90% right about a game, you’re either 100% right, or 100% wrong. So the only way to make sense of a 90% success rate is to say she has a 90% chance of picking the winner in any given game. And that, I can work with. Flipping a coin, you have a 50% chance of picking the winner. Flip the coin 63 times to enter the contest, and your chance of getting all 63 right is one in 0.5^63, or about 1 in 9 quintillion. But if you’re a psychic, and you’re right 90% of the time, then your chance of getting all 63 right is 1 in 0.9^63, or about 1 in 763. So any _ **particular** _ psychic is still not likely to win. But if a thousand psychics enter, and their average success rate is 90%, then the odds are that at least of them will win. And the odds of the contest running several years without one of them winning are very low. That’s just for a thousand psychics. If one in a million people is psychic, there should be about seven thousand of them. And even if they live in Bongo Congo, they should know about this contest — if not through the spirits, at least from some acquaintance who knows of their powers and wants them to enter. Besides, let’s look at the actual results. The last person was eliminated after the 25th game. This is the first year of the billion dollar contest, but in the last few years of a similar contest run by CBS Sports, with millions of entrants, the results were similar — everybody had missed by the 25th game. Flipping a coin, 0.5^25 is one in about 33 million, so it’s not surprising that with only a few million entrants, 25 games is about the limit for non-psychics. But 0.9^25 is just one in 14. So even your single, particular, 90% psychic should be able to be the best in the contest (which pays $100K to the top 20 entrants) with just a dozen or so years of trying. And even if psychics are right just 75% of the time, 0.75^25 is just a little worse than one in a thousand. I think there are a thousand psychics on basic cable alone. No, this doesn’t provide absolute proof of anything. But IMO, a rational person would consider it sufficient evidence to consider psychics phony until very strong counter-evidence is presented. ---
**Author:** ![TonySinclair](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/49beb7/32.png) [@TonySinclair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TonySinclair)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/76 "2014-03-22T20:02:02Z")
I just noticed that in my last post, my sloppy editing resulted in conflated odds and probabilities a couple of times. For example, the probability of guessing the outcome of two games is 0.5^2, not one in 0.5^2. If you understand math, you knew what I meant, and if you don’t, you didn’t notice, and it doesn’t affect my argument, but I do want to acknowledge the error. ---
**Author:** ![TonySinclair](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/49beb7/32.png) [@TonySinclair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TonySinclair)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/77 "2014-03-22T20:13:17Z")
Shorter version: casinos ban card counters. They welcome psychics. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/78 "2014-03-22T20:18:58Z")
> [@DocCathode](#): > > This is the first I heard of the Buffet Challenge. Obviously, you’re not psychic. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/79 "2014-03-22T21:06:22Z")
> [@kanicbird](#): > > Well it’s a round about way, I perfer the direct way that if the child (gifted person) steps outside the path of Love they lose the power of Love. > > But yes the connections and power we cede to others empowers them, it is the reason for the ‘popular’ people, which in high school seem to lead everyone else, it is the power of all their followers, it is the reason for fame also IMHO. Unless they encounter unforeseen circumstances > **[Psychic cancels live show due to 'unforeseen circumstances'](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/weird-news/psychic-cancels-live-show-due-to-unforeseen-circumstances-9204812.html)** > > A second night was cancelled for the same reasons > [@](#): > > Psychic medium June Field’s powers of clairvoyance failed her when planning a performance at Darwen Theatre in Lancashire, when she failed to predict the ‘unforeseen circumstances’ that would cause its cancellation. … Wait a minute. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![kanicbird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/5f8ce5/32.png) [@kanicbird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kanicbird)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244/80 "2014-03-22T22:01:19Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Show us the real deal-Name just _one_ that actually has psychic powers through “divine insight”. > _Just one_. My real-deal answer, that ability for you to find the ‘real-deal’ name is inside of you. I can not tell you, not because I am hiding it from you, but because it doesn’t work that way. If I was able to tell you, then I have become a go between, getting in the way of God and you. I have become a priest, and that is not the way. That is not to say you are without human help, and humans are God’s children with God powers, so in fact you do get human help. But it is God who determines who and what they do. So it short it’s not you calling the shots here, it will not happen your way, no matter how much you want it to, you will need to get over this, because God is the one in control, we are the child, God is the parent. Once you find the way (hint, it will be someone like Jesus in your life regardless of their religion/non-religion, they will just care about you for reasons you can’t understand), it will bring you to the real deal. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-buffet-challenge-debunk-psychic-powers-once-and-for-all/684244.md?page=5)