# Does the existence of supervolcanoes put a hard limit on mankind's future development?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617
**Category:** In My Humble Opinion
**Created:** [December 18, 2010, 9:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617 "2010-12-18T09:44:35Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)
#### Post date: [December 18, 2010, 9:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617/1 "2010-12-18T09:44:35Z")
One of the posts in a MPSIMS thread mentioned the Yellowstone supervolcano, which, if it erupted, would cut down on the global population significantly and retard human progress amid cultural chaos for probable centuries.
[Cecil’s article on the subject](http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/2834/is-yellowstone-park-sitting-on-a-supervolcano-thats-about-to-blow) mentions others across the globe. Now, I realize that, per that article, the likelihood of this happening within the lifetime of anyone living today is rather slim (the [USGS itself](http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/2005/docudrama.html) wonders if there will be “ever” another eruption there). Further, I get the impression that the idea of anything being “overdue” in a geological sense is actually rather absurd.
Still, we have plenty of threads that talk about going to the stars and our future development as a race and such. So ignoring for now all the stuff about FTL and what have you that usually comes up in those threads, does the existence of supervolcanoes, by themselves, limit how far we can go as a race? Feel free to factor in the possibility of technological advances that would “defuse” them, and how long you think that’d take to develop.
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### Author:  [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)
#### Post date: [December 18, 2010, 11:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617/2 "2010-12-18T11:01:14Z")
I’m not so sure.
Humanity is too widely spread. Yellowstone blowing wouldn’t have too much an effect (relatively) on Brazil, for instance. Similarly, if Taupo in New Zealand blows, then NZ is pretty much toast. Yes, it will suck for a year or two, but super-eruptions are not extinction level events. And, as I understand it, Yellowstone blowing wouldn’t directly affect the West Coast of America. Further, after a few years, all that volcanic ash will make for super-fertile farming land.
However, as you indicate, there are the geopolitical implications. If we have a ‘year without a summer’ as in 1415 - or several - and China or India start to starve, will they see this as a benefit - reducing their populations to more manageable levels - or will they try to seize food?
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### Author:  [@Neidhart](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Neidhart)
#### Post date: [December 18, 2010, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617/3 "2010-12-18T13:22:02Z")
I don’t know. The entire North American continent covered with four inches of ash (no more crops, planes can’t fly, internal combustion engines would all choke up) and a thousand-year-long ice age – sounds like bye-bye civilization to me.
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### Author:  [@iamnotbatman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamnotbatman)
#### Post date: [December 18, 2010, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617/4 "2010-12-18T13:31:49Z")
We just need a strategic ice cube reserve. Ice cubes counteract lava… right? No? Okay then, we can blow up the volcanoes with atomic bombs. Wha? OK sdmarty pants, they contained chernoble, they can contain a volcano. Probly only needs to be twice the size of hoover damn. And I’m sure if we were all really in danger the duct tape company would pitch in, which kind of renders it all a moot point. OK OK bnut really, if civilization advanced enough, it’s not inconceivable we could detect pressure build-up and use strategic underground nuclear weapons to release the pressure before any catastrophic happens. That’s not so hard to believe, is it?
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### Author:  [@appleciders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/appleciders)
#### Post date: [December 18, 2010, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617/5 "2010-12-18T13:36:41Z")
> [@Neidhart](#):
>
> I don’t know. The entire North American continent covered with four inches of ash (no more crops, planes can’t fly, internal combustion engines would all choke up) and a thousand-year-long ice age – sounds like bye-bye civilization to me.
You know, there _is_ civilization outside North America. I realize we might be looking at the end of the NFL, but there is more to life than that.
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### Author:  [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)
#### Post date: [December 18, 2010, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617/6 "2010-12-18T13:38:24Z")
But as I said, even then, there would be widespread upheaval and death outside the Americas even so. That would certainly retard the progress of civilization everywhere. But would it be enough so that they wouldn’t get far enough to prevent the _next_ eruption? Or to get to the flying car (finally!) stage?
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### Author:  [@appleciders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/appleciders)
#### Post date: [December 18, 2010, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617/7 "2010-12-18T14:08:03Z")
No. All of mankind’s technological progress has come in a tiny fraction of time since the last supervolcano eruption. Given the entire interval between eruptions and the giant head start of whatever technology survives the eruption, we will certainly be able to exceed whatever we have created in this interval.
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### Author:  [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)
#### Post date: [December 18, 2010, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617/8 "2010-12-18T14:19:51Z")
> [@Quartz](#):
>
> I’m not so sure.
>
> Humanity is too widely spread. Yellowstone blowing wouldn’t have too much an effect (relatively) on Brazil, for instance. Similarly, if Taupo in New Zealand blows, then NZ is pretty much toast. Yes, it will suck for a year or two, but super-eruptions are not extinction level events. And, as I understand it, Yellowstone blowing wouldn’t directly affect the West Coast of America.
It’s my understanding that one of the larger Yellowstone eruptions would reach the entire west half of the country; basically draw a line through the nation up from the east edge of Texas up into Canada; everything west of that gets hit hard or outright devastated. And weather would be affected worldwide.
> [@Neidhart](#):
>
> I don’t know. The entire North American continent covered with four inches of ash (no more crops, planes can’t fly, internal combustion engines would all choke up) and a thousand-year-long ice age – sounds like bye-bye civilization to me.
Also, buildings collapse under the ash. Ash is _heavy_; it’s basically powdered rock.
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### Author:  [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)
#### Post date: [December 19, 2010, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617/9 "2010-12-19T02:19:26Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#):
>
> It’s my understanding that one of the larger Yellowstone eruptions would reach the entire west half of the country; basically draw a line through the nation up from the east edge of Texas up into Canada; everything west of that gets hit hard or outright devastated. And weather would be affected worldwide.
>
> Also, buildings collapse under the ash. Ash is _heavy_; it’s basically powdered rock.
What’s the density per square inch of ash vs wet snow? It usually takes 2-3 feet of ice and snow combined to collapse the roof of a home, so is ash _that_ much more dense that only a few inches would do the same?
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### Author:  [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)
#### Post date: [December 19, 2010, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617/10 "2010-12-19T02:57:36Z")
> [@elfkin477](#):
>
> What’s the density per square inch of ash vs wet snow? It usually takes 2-3 feet of ice and snow combined to collapse the roof of a home, so is ash _that_ much more dense that only a few inches would do the same?
I found a page on the subject [here](http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/ash/build/index.html). Also mentioned [here](http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/Imgs/Jpg/Rabaul/32923351-012_caption.html), I’ll quote it since it’s the same depth of four inches that was in the comment I was responding to:
> [@](#):
>
> For a dry layer of ash about 10 cm (4 in) thick, the extra load on a building can range 40-70 kg/m[sup]2[/sup] (120 to 200 lb/yd[sup]2[/sup]); a wet layer might reach 100-125 kg/m[sup]2[/sup] (300-350 lb/yd[sup]2[/sup]).
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### Author:  [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)
#### Post date: [December 19, 2010, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617/11 "2010-12-19T20:59:01Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#):
>
> I found a page on the subject [here](http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/ash/build/index.html). Also mentioned [here](http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/Imgs/Jpg/Rabaul/32923351-012_caption.html), I’ll quote it since it’s the same depth of four inches that was in the comment I was responding to:
Okay. I’m not great at math, so you might need to make corrections, but it looks like wet snow is ~50lbs/square foot (one cite said up to 62.5lbs, but let’s go with the figure [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=7137657&postcount=2) at 50lbs) and a square yard is the same as nine feet square - this is the part where I’m iffy. _Is_ that right? - so it’s 450lbs/square yard then?
But anyway, it looks like wet ash would be pretty damn bad for the roof too.
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### Author:  [@Sunspace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunspace)
#### Post date: [December 19, 2010, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617/12 "2010-12-19T22:01:11Z")
> [@elfkin477](#):
>
> Okay. I’m not great at math, so you might need to make corrections, but it looks like wet snow is ~50lbs/square foot (one cite said up to 62.5lbs, but let’s go with the figure [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=7137657&postcount=2) at 50lbs) and a square yard is the same as nine feet square - this is the part where I’m iffy. _Is_ that right? - so it’s 450lbs/square yard then?
A square yard is nine _square feet_ (a square one yard, or three feet, on a side; 3 x 3 = 9), not nine feet square (nine feet on a side, which is 81 square feet).
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### Author:  [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)
#### Post date: [December 19, 2010, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617/13 "2010-12-19T23:02:42Z")
Time to colonize Luna.
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### Author:  [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)
#### Post date: [December 19, 2010, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617/14 "2010-12-19T23:13:20Z")
> [@Neidhart](#):
>
> … internal combustion engines would all choke up..
As NASCAR goes, so goes the world.
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### Author:  [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)
#### Post date: [December 19, 2010, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617/15 "2010-12-19T23:30:29Z")
> [@Neidhart](#):
>
> I don’t know. The entire North American continent covered with four inches of ash (no more crops, planes can’t fly, internal combustion engines would all choke up) and a thousand-year-long ice age – sounds like bye-bye civilization to me.
From where do you get the thousand-year ice age?
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### Author:  [@PlainJain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PlainJain)
#### Post date: [December 20, 2010, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617/16 "2010-12-20T02:04:33Z")
This is why we should be terraforming Mars _right now!_
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### Author:  [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)
#### Post date: [December 20, 2010, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617/17 "2010-12-20T02:45:11Z")
> [@Sunspace](#):
>
> A square yard is nine _square feet_ (a square one yard, or three feet, on a side; 3 x 3 = 9), not nine feet square (nine feet on a side, which is 81 square feet).
So…what’s 50lbs/square foot in square yards then? I understand the distinction you’re making, but not how to fix the math.
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### Author:  [@DMark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMark)
#### Post date: [December 20, 2010, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617/18 "2010-12-20T03:00:38Z")
Call in British Petroleum - I hear they are fast and efficient and stopping things from spewing from the earth.
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### Author:  [@Mollie\_Magill](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mollie_Magill)
#### Post date: [December 20, 2010, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617/19 "2010-12-20T03:11:19Z")
North America would be toast if Yellowstone were to erupt. As someone one upthread pointed out: there’s more to civilization than North America.
The question everyone outside of North America must ask themselves is: with all that sulphur dioxide in the atmosphere, how well will we survive five or six years without a growing season?
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### Author:  [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)
#### Post date: [December 20, 2010, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-existence-of-supervolcanoes-put-a-hard-limit-on-mankinds-future-development/564617/20 "2010-12-20T03:18:01Z")
I’m sure there will be plenty of crunchy and nutritious frozen corpses around .
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