In Soviet times there was a policy of mass deportation to Siberia for anyone thought to be anti-Soviet.
I would look for signs that Russia is building large camps.
Rather than cattle trucks they may copy the current Chinese approach to dealing with dissent.
An invasion may result in masses of refugees flooding west into Poland.
I don’t know if they’ve supplied enough, but they have supplied some, at least:
ETA: might be on the order of 2,000 missiles:
On Jan. 19, British defense secretary Ben Wallace told the Daily Mail the U.K. had already delivered 2,000 NLAWs to Ukraine, a number he indicated might continue to rise. The missiles were London’s way of providing defensive aid to Kyiv as Russian forces deploying around Ukraine’s borders give the impression a new invasion may be imminent.
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I’ve read that article before and looked into the claim. It’s an interesting take and I would love to hear what Japanese WWII scholars say.
The traditional explanation is that the term 一億 ichioku (100 million) is used symbolically to represent a very large number.
Japanese numbering gives units for 1 (一), 10 (十), 100 (百), 1,000 (千), 10,000 (万), and 100,000 is 10 x 10,000 (十万), 1,000,000 is 100 x 10,000 (百万), 10 million is (千万). 100 million is next unit, 億. The idea then it that oku is a very large number.
There is a manga The Failed Swordsman Who Became the Strongest After Spamming the 100 Million Years Button’ (一億年ボタンを連打した俺は、気付いたら最強になっていた～落第剣士の学院無双
I haven’t actually read that series, but this is an example of 100 million being used for a large number.
The author of the quoted article, Hiroaki Sato, seems to be a well-informed Japanese poet and translator and the theory is interesting. The populations work out to about 100 million in total, with 70 million in Japan, 25 million in Korea and 6 million in Taiwan, all in very rough numbers.
While the considerable measures to force Japanization of Korea is well known, there was also similar measures in Taiwan, although apparently not as harshly imposed or with a lessor scale. I haven’t read that much about it the specifics in Taiwan. However, Taiwanese are generally positive about their experience as a colony of Japan.
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As far as the willingness of the Japanese population to commit suicide en masse, there is much debate on the question of how that would have actually played out. Thankfully, it didn’t come to that.
While poorly or untrained civilians are of dubious military utility, I don’t think the plebeians are quite as imbecilic as it’s fashionable to presume.
The expectation that individuals’ agendas and priorities align simply based on nationality is extremely naive. Not everyone (nor even a majority) of those given a gun is going to use it as an opportunity to support a military objective. Some will use it to subvert that objective. Some will use it to commit crimes. Some will use it to settle scores. Many will just sell them to feed their families during wartime food shortages. Without a strict chain of command and months of intense indoctrination by that command, an armed citizen is more likely a threat than an asset.
I was with you until this last line.
I think having the orcs at the gate has a tenandancy to unite people so I would wager that the majority of Ukrainians will use their weapons to try to help in some way. Or they’ll be kept as a last resort and never actually used.
But yeah, if even 10% are used for any other purpose then that’s a lot of potential chaos right there.
Plus, these people won’t be part of an offensive against the Russians.
Standing on the defensive is probably the easiest job to learn in the military. Make every neighborhood a fortress with roadblocks and the like, and then everyone just hunkers down and shoots at any Russians who get close.
There will be very little maneuvering done. Coordination will mostly be making sure at least some people show up to sit in the foxholes.
Ukraine has had conscription for men (barring but one year, 2013/14), for decades. I don’t think they have regular followup training a-la the Swiss, but I think most adult Ukrainian men know their way around an assault rifle.
The key word in universal conscription is universal, not conscription. The last time Ukraine had universal conscription was during the Cold War when it was a part of the Soviet Union.
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@TokyoBayer Thanks for that take. I was/am(?) sure that article wasn’t the first time I’ve seen the 100 million as an inclusion of the population of Japanese colonies but haven’t been able to figure out where. I know ichioku was a popular word to attach to the latest propaganda slogan in Imperial Japan, everything from 100 million advancing like a ball of flame (susume ichioku hinotama-da) to the much more final 100 million as a Special Attack (i.e., suicide) Force (ichioku Tokkō).
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Which was why I didn’t argue that point. My point about most of the men currently called up knowing how to use infantry weaponry stands.
Sure, as long as you define what their role will be. Civilians given weapons and limited training would be fine fighting from fixed or fortified positions, for instance. And on the defensive. It also helps if you put in some trained military personnel, preferably special forces types who are trained to work with just these kinds of people, know their limitations and what they can and can’t do, and how to best utilize them.
If your expectation is for them to be part of a maneuver force, or to do offensive operations, then they aren’t going to be very good at that…at least not most of them. From their ranks, however (at least the survivors) you will probably get some of the experienced cadres, eventually, to do some of what you mentioned…your ‘insurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan done by a small number of highly motivated and trained operatives’. Certainly, some of those folks were highly trained people with military or ex-military experience, but some of them would be the armed civilians who have the experience, survived long enough, and have the right motivation and mindset to do stuff like that.
Bottom line is that arming civilians isn’t pointless or worthless, especially in a defensive role from fixed positions. Especially if they are motivated to want to fight and know that they will be the ones taking the majority of the casualties. It’s kind of cold-blooded, but if people want to fight for their homes and know the score, they can certainly be effective in this role.
The government might be better off training the population in non-violent resistance, which has at least as much chance for success. But romanticized ideas about violence, often disguised as “hard-headed realism,” usually take that off the table, or more accurately, prevent it from even making it to the table.
Maybe because at this stage the Ukrainian military is still in the field, and they are still fighting to hold their cities. Your ideas might be helpful after a country loses and is being occupied…not while the fighting is still going on and this is all still in the balance.
I think it would be even more useful before war breaks outs. And in the face of superior odds (I’m speaking in general, not this war specifically) it might offer better chances than violent resistance. It also opens the door to more creative solutions, while organized violence from the top down shuts down ideas and locks us into the old patterns.
I think it is interesting that people, whatever their level of expertise and experience, are quick to weigh in with opinions on how different forms of violence might work but there are few serious investigations of non-violent alternatives. This seems to be the case on the sliding scale from interpersonal to state conflicts. Blaming “monkey brain” or “human nature” just dodges the issue, I think.
At this stage, with Russia starting to ramp up indiscriminent bombing of cities, I don’t see what non-violent solutions would help. It would be more either evacuation procedures or shelters and logistics to support and try and protect to the greatest extent the exposed and vulnerable population. For those who volunteer to help, certainly, they could be used in many different roles as assistance to first responders or the like. But those who want to be issued a gun and are willing to fight also have a role at this stage, especially as I said in a defensive role from fixed positions. They can free up regular soldiers who are better trained and suited to do more offensively oriented operations or be a force multiplier if they are used with those soldiers in defensive positions such as in a city or as a blocking force.
I’m not discounting what you say, and that has a role as well. But so does this and I think people are discounting it too easily and quickly. I know US special forces are specifically trained in this and have been for decades…and I’d be shocked if other country’s special forces aren’t as well. Including Ukraine’s. They are trained in it (i.e. in arming civilian volunteers, basic weapons training, and the tactical use of those people to be effective in what they can do) because it works and has proven effective in the past when used properly.
And there are a lot of Ukrainians doing just that. I’ve seen more than one video of crowds of unarmed civilians blocking roads in front of Russian convoys, basically offering them the choice to turn around, or drive through the crowd and crush them.
And then there’s the bad ass babushka we saw haranguing that one Russian, telling him to put sunflower seeds in his pocket, so flowers bloom when he dies. I’m pretty sure that killed his morale.
A few days ago, I met a Ukrainian at a wedding (he was the assistant photographer, or something like that). He hails from Kiev and his wife from Odessa (or perhaps it was the other way around, but I’m pretty sure I have it correct). He said his family all emigrated but his wife still has family & friends in Ukraine.
His opinion was basically that the Ukrainians are a bunch of horribly xenophobic people, and that they persecute anyone who is not exactly from the inner group, whether that be Russians, Jews, or anyone else. He thought that was a big part of why Putin wanted to invade, and seemed to think he had a point. He said his wife was speaking to a friend/family member back in Ukraine and that person was hoping for a Russian invasion.
The point of all of this is that you can’t assume that sentiment is as monolithic as might appear. Firstly, Western media will naturally emphasize those who agree with the Western position, but also, the people sympathetic to whoever is currently in control are going to be the most visible in expressing themselves. But that doesn’t necessarily capture the reality.
It’s very worth bearing in mind how this played out during the Iraq invasion. People who got their information from Western media tended to believe that Saddam Hussein was universally loathed by the Iraqi people and only kept in power by ruthless terror (policymakers tended to believe this too, which is why they miscalculated the aftermath so badly, but I digress). And the initial reaction of the visible public to the American “liberators” seemed to vindicate this. But that was all about media portrayals, and self-selection in the immediate wake of the invasion, and the reality was very different.
Imagine if the population had actually been trained and organized for such action. Failing that, issuing every adult an RPG could also work. Not saying it would be problem-free, but done right it could look like the Great Northfield Raid. Although I think the old Italian in Catch-22 had the right idea–welcome any conqueror’s parade by lining the streets with spectators and try to spear the victors with the rose or edelweiss you throw at them in celebration.
*Not actually serious re the RPGs
A civilian given an RPG is not a soldier. He’s a civilian with a rocket launcher, and is as much a danger to himself as the Russians.
But you don’t do that. You fight as guerrillas. The Cong forced us to the table, We pulled out of Afghanistan… and so did the Russians, the Resistance in WW2, etc.
Or to back up regulars in a defensive position.
I have some doubts, all the Ukrainians I know (and my family was from Carpathian, so) say exactly the opposite. Perhaps he was an ethnic Russian?