# Does the "Mars One" project have a shot in hell of working? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [January 14, 2013, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-mars-one-project-have-a-shot-in-hell-of-working/647226 "2013-01-14T22:59:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2013, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-mars-one-project-have-a-shot-in-hell-of-working/647226/1 "2013-01-14T22:59:20Z")
[Found this online yesterday after reading an article in the paper.](http://mars-one.com/en/) Basically, it’s a non-profit organization based out of the Netherlands, with one simple goal - establish a permanent manned colony on Mars within the next ten years. According to their FAQ, they intend to recruit the first four colonists this year, spend the next nine years training them while they launch a series of unmanned ships to Mars to drop supplies and living facilities, and then in 2022 the four colonists themselves will travel to Mars on a privately-built ship, with the expectation that it’s a one-way trip and they will never return to Earth. Once there, they’ll assemble the already-there living module and prepare for the arrival of an additional group of colonists every four years. They intend to fund this with donations and by producing an elaborate reality show about the colonist selection process and training. I can’t blame them for thinking big, and they seem to have a keen grasp of the science of such an attempt, but I can’t imagine any way that they could raise enough money to do this all in just one decade (their first private space launch to Mars is supposed to take place in 2016!), and I can foresee about a million ways that things could go wrong and result in these colonists dying horribly. Space-minded Dopers, I ask of you; is there a chance in hell of this being a viable endeavor? ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2013, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-mars-one-project-have-a-shot-in-hell-of-working/647226/2 "2013-01-14T23:02:05Z")
Ten years? Ha, ha, ha, ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. Ten ha, ha, haaaah yea - hah, hah, hah - rs? Ha, hah, ha, ha, ha, hah. Tee hee. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2013, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-mars-one-project-have-a-shot-in-hell-of-working/647226/3 "2013-01-14T23:09:04Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > is there a chance in hell of this being a viable endeavor? what defines viable? Suppose the first four colonists die after 1 or 2 years, but do enough work so that the next batch can survive for 3-10 years, then the next batch can live out their lives there. Human nature being what it is a can see them still getting volunteers even if the first four die after a year or two. 8 man-years is exponentially more than the amount of time spent on other planned expeditions, the potential amount of infrastructure they could create for future colonist attempts is immense. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2013, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-mars-one-project-have-a-shot-in-hell-of-working/647226/4 "2013-01-14T23:15:52Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > According to their FAQ, they intend to recruit the first four colonists this year, spend the next nine years training them while they launch a series of unmanned ships to Mars to drop supplies and living facilities… So have they got the rockets ready? Bwcause to have a working base in ten years, they’re going to have to start launching the first unmanned ships soon. Given the likelihood of loss, the need for planning, and all the other complexities, if you had fifty trillion dollars to do this you still couldn’t do it in ten years from nothing. They’re planning on a first launch in 2016. That’s just three years away. Where is the rocket? What Mars One WILL accomplish, though, is getting donations from fools - who, as we know, are easily parted from their money. And, of course, that’s their real mission. One of their stated goals is to build a replica base in a cold, hostile environment on Earth for training purposes. Do you know how expensive \*just doing that \*would be? ---
**Author:** ![WotNot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e19b73/32.png) [@WotNot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WotNot)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2013, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-mars-one-project-have-a-shot-in-hell-of-working/647226/5 "2013-01-14T23:17:29Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > [URL=“[http://mars-one.com/en/](http://mars-one.com/en/)”]Space-minded Dopers, I ask of you; is there a chance in hell of this being a viable endeavor? As a serious interplanetary mission? I seriously doubt it. As a set-up for a reality TV show? Absolutely. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2013, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-mars-one-project-have-a-shot-in-hell-of-working/647226/6 "2013-01-14T23:38:13Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > what defines viable? Suppose the first four colonists die after 1 or 2 years, but do enough work so that the next batch can survive for 3-10 years, then the next batch can live out their lives there. At least on Mars, there are huge tracts of land. ---
**Author:** ![Earl\_Snake-Hips\_Tucker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/earl_snake-hips_tucker/32/3269_2.png) [@Earl\_Snake-Hips\_Tucker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Earl_Snake-Hips_Tucker)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2013, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-mars-one-project-have-a-shot-in-hell-of-working/647226/7 "2013-01-15T20:12:56Z")
Personally, I’d like to see a soil sample return mission. But when you see what all it took to land Curiosity, it would appear that landing a launch vehicle–even if it were only to rendezvous with an orbiting return vehicle–would seem to be a pretty dicey propsition. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2013, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-mars-one-project-have-a-shot-in-hell-of-working/647226/8 "2013-01-15T20:25:47Z")
They have a better chance of establishing a colony on the sun for one night. ---
**Author:** ![tdn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/94ad74/32.png) [@tdn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tdn)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2013, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-mars-one-project-have-a-shot-in-hell-of-working/647226/9 "2013-01-15T20:31:33Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > At least on Mars, there are huge tracts of land. And they want _our_ women?!? ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2013, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-mars-one-project-have-a-shot-in-hell-of-working/647226/10 "2013-01-15T20:45:31Z")
No ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2013, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-mars-one-project-have-a-shot-in-hell-of-working/647226/11 "2013-01-15T20:48:46Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > Dopers, I ask of you; is there a chance in hell of this being a viable endeavor? I would say it’s a real long-shot, based on the fact that nobody has even come close to winning the Google Lunar X prize over the past few years. Even though the goal for the Google Lunar X prize is much more modest and many of the teams are reasonably well-funded and organized. Putting men permanently on Mars strikes me as much much harder than putting a small machine on the moon. Of course that’s if you define “viable endeavor” as actually succeeding in starting a Mars colony in the next 10 years. Probably their real goal is to generate some attention and revenue.