For years, traditional public opinion polling has broken down ideology into three distinct groupings: liberal, moderate, and conservative. Based on this categorization, there has been remarkable stability in ideological orientation, with roughly one-fifth of Americans identifying themselves as “liberal” and about four in 10 classifying themselves as “moderate”
or ”conservative,” respectively, according to Gallup polling from 1992 to 2008.
In this study, however, the electorate is broken down using a more expansive five-point scale of political ideology that reflects the variety of approaches people ascribe to today. Employing this more calibrated measure, 34 percent of the country identifies as “conservative,” 29 percent as “moderate,” 15 percent as “liberal,” 16 percent as “progressive,” and 2 percent as “libertarian.” After moderates are asked which approach they lean toward, the overall ideological breakdown of the country divides into fairly neat left and right groupings, with 47 percent of Americans identifying as progressive or liberal and 48 percent as conservative or libertarian. The rest are unsure or scattered among moderate and other approaches.
Combining this five-point scale of political ideology with responses to the 40 specific ideological statements, the progressive leanings of the country become readily apparent. On the domestic front, after years of supply-side tax cuts, support for corporations (especially extractive oil and mining companies), and deregulation of the economy, large percentages of Americans increasingly favor progressive ideas centered on: sustainable lifestyles and green energy; public investment in education, infrastructure, and science; financial support for the poor, elderly, and sick; regulation of business to protect workers and consumers; and guaranteed affordable health coverage for every American. On the international front, the legacy of the Bush years has yielded to an American public far more interested in restoring the country’s image abroad, fighting climate change, and pursuing security through diplomacy, alliances, and international institutions than in the continued pursuit of national objectives through the sole projection of military might.
Approximately two-thirds of Americans—reaching to 70 percent to 80 percent on some measures—agree with progressive ideas in each of these domestic and global areas (see Table 1). Important cleavages emerge in the data, however, between non-college-educated Americans and college-educated elites. Non-college Americans are more populist and progressive than elites on some measures of government and economics and much more conservative on cultural and national security measures.
The rise of progressivism in America is reflected more starkly in direct ratings of various ideological approaches. Today, more than two-thirds of Americans rate a “progressive” approach to politics favorably, a 25-point increase in favorability over the last five years, with gains coming primarily from those who were previously unaware of the term. “Progressive” now equals ”conservative” in terms of overall public favorability (67 percent, respectively).
The continuing strength of the conservative brand—if not all of its constitutive ideas—reflects the long-term success of the conservative movement over decades. Despite electoral setbacks and larger proportions of Americans now adhering to progressive ideas about governance and society, the conservative worldview remains appealing to many Americans and creates important cleavages in the electorate, particularly on key cultural and national security beliefs. Conservative principles about markets, spending, national defense, and traditional values enjoy residual strength and could rise in prominence depending on shifts in the economic and political environment. Conservatives may be down but they are not out of the ideology game.
But unless and until conservatives recognize the depth of affinity between President Obama’s ideological approach and that of the American electorate, conservative ideas likely will remain in secondary status. According to this research, President Obama himself—and his ideas about governance outlined in his recent address to the joint session of Congress and his budget overview—best embodies in spirit, tone, and ideological and substantive content the emerging center spot in the American electorate today. The strong public support for President Obama reflects personal qualities and strengths that appeal broadly to Americans and genuine consensus among the public about the ideas and prescriptions necessary to navigate the country through turbulent waters.
Notably, the ideological areas of greatest consensus among Americans are all key priorities and investment targets of President Obama: renewable energy; education, science, and infrastructure; universal health care; financial support for the least well-off; public interest regulations; and reductions in inequality financed by increased taxes on the wealthy.
As the “New Progressive America” report by Ruy Teixeira for the Progressive Studies Program argues, these ideological trends are likely to grow over time as particular demographic groups increase in electoral importance. A companion youth survey by the Progressive Studies Program reveals that progressive attitudes about government and economics are particularly strong among those under the age of 30, suggesting the potential for further strengthening of progressivism within the electorate.