# Does the Trump candidacy signal a paradigm shift in US politics? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [September 3, 2015, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-trump-candidacy-signal-a-paradigm-shift-in-us-politics/729861 "2015-09-03T21:42:52Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 9\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2015, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-trump-candidacy-signal-a-paradigm-shift-in-us-politics/729861/161 "2015-09-16T16:53:45Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > That MIGHT work. The Hispanic vote has been a sleeping giant for a long time, and every four years, the Democrats keep hoping THIS is the year the giant awakes. > > But I’m not at all convinced that a typical blue-collar Mexican-American from East LA or Brownsville, Texas is all that concerned about wetbacks. And he MAY even think Donald Trump seems like the kind of macho guy he can relate to. > > And if Donald Trump really could get 25% of the black vote, that would be a NIGHTMARE for the Democrats, who can usually count on at LEAST 85% of the black vote in EVERY election (and got much more than that the past two elections). What Donald says about illegal immigrants resonates, quite a bit, with the black community. So I wouldn’t be surprised if 25% is achievable. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2015, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-trump-candidacy-signal-a-paradigm-shift-in-us-politics/729861/162 "2015-09-16T17:07:08Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > What Donald says about illegal immigrants resonates, quite a bit, with the black community. So I wouldn’t be surprised if 25% is achievable. > **[Poll disputes Donald Trump claim on black voter support | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2015/08/27/politics/donald-trump-african-american-polls/)** > > Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump said Thursday that his plans to improve the economy for black Americans is why he is leading in the polls with black voters, though at least one recent poll disputes Trump’s claim. > [@](#): > > When asked “Would you say that Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?” 92% of black people said no. I know that is hard for conservatives to parse, as their base can be counted on to vote against their own self interest. But is really is a steep hill to climb for Trump to get 25% of the African-American vote. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2015, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-trump-candidacy-signal-a-paradigm-shift-in-us-politics/729861/163 "2015-09-16T17:14:34Z")
Unlikely. Ben Carson is touting his appeal among the black community by saying that he can win as much as 13% of the black vote. 13%! That’s actually pretty realistic though. Trump’s hopes to win 25%, not so much. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2015, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-trump-candidacy-signal-a-paradigm-shift-in-us-politics/729861/164 "2015-09-16T17:17:04Z")
In the case of both Hispanics and Blacks, actual voters are usually a pretty small percentage of eligible voters. IOW, there’s a lot more to be gained by causing those folk to vote at all than there is by appealing to the more sophisticated concept of self-interest. If a Trump or a Cruz could ignite a lot of band-wagon interest in simply bothering to vote for a name you recognize versus staying home they could carry a big chunk of these slumbering giants. Arguably a lot of the Blacks voting for Obama in 2008 did so not out of agreement with his policy proposals, but simply out of recognition of his name, once suitably advertised. Given that non-voters tend to be overwhelmingly under-informed as well, there’s plenty of room for a content-free campaign consisting of little more than “Vote for me; the name you know!!” I think Trump especially could excel at such a campaign. I’m not pleased that the world is this way, but I think my description is accurate enough. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2015, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-trump-candidacy-signal-a-paradigm-shift-in-us-politics/729861/165 "2015-09-16T17:18:32Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > [http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/27/politics/donald-trump-african-american-polls/I](http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/27/politics/donald-trump-african-american-polls/I) know that is hard for conservatives to parse, as their base can be counted on to vote against their own self interest. But is really is a steep hill to climb for Trump to get 25% of the African-American vote. Oh, I think it’s very likely that come November 2016, most black voters will flock back to whoever the Democrats nominate. But I also think that, as a celeb, Trump has a chance to appeal to a lot of minority voters who just like his persona, regardless of what he actually believes in. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2015, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-trump-candidacy-signal-a-paradigm-shift-in-us-politics/729861/166 "2015-09-16T17:19:55Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > But I’m not at all convinced that a typical blue-collar Mexican-American from East LA or Brownsville, Texas is all that concerned about wetbacks. And he MAY even think Donald Trump seems like the kind of macho guy he can relate to. Pretty sure that guy doesn’t refer to them as “wetbacks.” ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2015, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-trump-candidacy-signal-a-paradigm-shift-in-us-politics/729861/167 "2015-09-16T17:24:07Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Pretty sure that guy doesn’t refer to them as “wetbacks.” Think again. My father-in-law was a South Texas-born Hispanic who DID use the word “wetbacks.” Do not assume there’s tremendously love and kinship between working class Mexican-Americans and illegal immigrants. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2015, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-trump-candidacy-signal-a-paradigm-shift-in-us-politics/729861/168 "2015-09-16T19:24:27Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > Think again. My father-in-law was a South Texas-born Hispanic who DID use the word “wetbacks.” Do not assume there’s tremendously love and kinship between working class Mexican-Americans and illegal immigrants. Be that as it may, Trump is not making a fuss about illegal immigrants from China or Canada, just Latino ones. His objection to Jeb! talking Spanish ain’t going to help either. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2015, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-trump-candidacy-signal-a-paradigm-shift-in-us-politics/729861/169 "2015-09-16T19:29:04Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > Be that as it may, Trump is not making a fuss about illegal immigrants from China or Canada, just Latino ones. His objection to Jeb! talking Spanish ain’t going to help either. Then again, guys like my father-in-law don’t worry about Chinese or Canadian illegals coming over the border and undercutting their wages. Don’t assume racial or ethnic brotherhood where it doesn’t exist. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-the-trump-candidacy-signal-a-paradigm-shift-in-us-politics/729861.md?page=8)