# Does this US national debt chart look correct? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [October 4, 2016, 7:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619 "2016-10-04T07:41:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Sputnikkk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Sputnikkk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sputnikkk)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 7:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619/1 "2016-10-04T07:41:15Z")
I’m looking for a chart showing which presidents are responsible for national debt. Does this look fake, exaggerated, or incorrect? [http://goldsilverworlds.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/US\_national\_debts\_since\_1940\_presidents\_accountable.gif](http://goldsilverworlds.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/US_national_debts_since_1940_presidents_accountable.gif) (Why, because I wanted a chart to show someone that Obama isn’t the root cause of the national debt, and I found this and was actually quite shocked) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 7:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619/2 "2016-10-04T07:52:40Z")
It’s true, but misleading, since Congress appropriates money, plus there are policies implemented decades ago that control mandatory spending like Medicare and Social Security. ---
**Author:** ![lisiate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/f05b48/32.png) [@lisiate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lisiate)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 8:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619/3 "2016-10-04T08:26:47Z")
It’d be a lot more meaningful if it were adjusted for inflation as well. ---
**Author:** ![Sputnikkk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Sputnikkk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sputnikkk)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 8:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619/4 "2016-10-04T08:35:59Z")
Thanks, its probably good enough to show the person I’m ‘_debating_’ with in hopes they will understand not to just blame Obama, but sigh, that’s more depressing than I thought, even if it was half as bad as it looks in the chart, it makes me feel like we’re doomed. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 8:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619/5 "2016-10-04T08:38:30Z")
There’s a case for blaming Obama: he’s consistently requested $200 billion more than Congress has been willing to give him. To the extent the deficit has shrunk, it’s been entirely due to Congress since 2011. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 10:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619/6 "2016-10-04T10:13:27Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > There’s a case for blaming Obama: he’s consistently requested $200 billion more than Congress has been willing to give him. To the extent the deficit has shrunk, it’s been entirely due to Congress since 2011. Cite on Obama proposing to make the deficit $200 billion worse per year (and Congress rejecting such proposals)? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 10:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619/7 "2016-10-04T10:33:23Z")
> **[2011 United States federal budget](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_States_federal_budget)** > > The 2011 United States federal budget was the United States federal budget to fund government operations for the fiscal year 2011. The budget was the subject of a spending request by President Barack Obama. The actual appropriations for Fiscal Year 2011 had to be authorized by the full Congress before it could take effect, according to the U.S. budget process. > No budget was passed by the September 30 deadline, and the government was funded by a series of seven continuing resolutions continu... > **[2012 United States federal budget](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_federal_budget)** > > The 2012 United States federal budget was the budget to fund government operations for the fiscal year 2012, which lasted from October 1, 2011 through September 30, 2012. The original spending request was issued by President Barack Obama in February 2011. That April, the Republican-held House of Representatives announced a competing plan, The Path to Prosperity, emboldened by a major victory in the 2010 Congressional elections associated with the Tea Party movement. The budget plans were bot... > **[2013 United States federal budget](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_States_federal_budget)** > > The 2013 United States federal budget is the budget to fund government operations for the fiscal year 2013, which began on October 1, 2012, and ended on September 30, 2013. The original spending request was issued by President Barack Obama in February 2012. > The Budget Control Act of 2011 mandates caps on discretionary spending, which under current law will be lowered beginning in January 2013 to remove $1.2 trillion of spending over the following ten years. In addition, several temporary tax ... > **[2014 United States federal budget](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_States_federal_budget)** > > The 2014 United States federal budget is the budget to fund government operations for the fiscal year (FY) 2014, which began on October 1, 2013 and ended on September 30, 2014. > President Obama submitted the FY2014 budget proposal on April 10, 2013, two months past the February 4 legal deadline due to negotiations over the United States fiscal cliff and implementation of the sequester cuts mandated by the Budget Control Act of 2011. The House of Representatives passed its proposal, H.Con.Res 2... > **[2015 United States federal budget](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_States_federal_budget)** > > The 2015 United States federal budget was the federal budget for fiscal year 2015, which runs from October 1, 2014 to September 30, 2015. The budget takes the form of a budget resolution which must be agreed to by both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in order to become final, but never receives the signature or veto of the President of the United States and does not become law. Until both the House and the Senate pass the same concurrent resolution, no fina... See requested(Obama) vs. actual(Congress) ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 12:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619/8 "2016-10-04T12:10:42Z")
Ah, I see how you’re getting that, but you’re making a key assumption that results in an error. When the President submits his budget in February of each year, there’s about a trillion dollars worth of actual budget proposals, two and a half trillion dollars of estimates of costs of mandatory programs that Congress basically never touches, and maybe a few dozens of billions of proposed changes to mandatory programs. When you look on Wikipedia and see that one year’s proposed budget of, say, $3.5 trillion in spending actually ended up being $3.3 trillion when the fiscal year actually ended 18 months later, that does not mean that Congress cut the budget by $200 billion. I guarantee you they did not. What you’re seeing is that estimates for mandatory spending always, always, always err a little bit on the high side, plus the slowly improving economy over those years also reduced claims in mandatory programs (e.g., spending on unemployment programs and food stamps have gone down slightly faster than budget projections made 18-24 months earlier). In terms of discretionary spending, Congress and the President have agreed on spending levels just over $1 trillion annually for the past several years since the 2011 budget deal. In fact, spending under this deal has actually gone up by roughy $20 billion per year since the sea was struck, offset by cuts to mandatory programs in the 2020s. The clear facts are: 1. The budget deal in 2011 capped discretionary spending, and it was reduced by one year because of sequestration, but the caps are revised upwards by a couple dozen billion dollars that are offset. 2. The President’s budget proposals to increase mandatory spending on various things over the years have been fully paid for by proposing tax increases on the wealthy and closing various loopholes. None of these proposals have ever gone anywhere in Congress. 3. Congress has not reduced mandatory spending in any significant way. 4. The greatest discrepancy between estimated spending submitted in February of one year, and the actual spending calculated at the end of September in the following year, is economic changes (lower inflation, growing economy, etc) NOT any action by Congress. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619/9 "2016-10-04T13:10:48Z")
> [@lisiate](#): > > It’d be a lot more meaningful if it were adjusted for inflation as well. And if it pointed out that each successive president’s portion of the graph is affected by debt servicing prior presidents’ debts. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619/10 "2016-10-04T13:30:32Z")
The more useful graph would be of the deficit, anyway, not of the debt. If a President (really, the whole government) inherits a large debt, they can’t make it go away without many, many years of hard work, but if they inherit a large deficit, they can bring it to zero instantly if they so choose (of course, they almost never do, but they can). ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619/11 "2016-10-04T13:34:43Z")
It only goes to 2011 and he was stuck with both the two wars started by you know who and fighting what should really be called a depression, also a legacy. I’d like to see it carried forth to 2016. Also should be adjusted for inflation. Actually, what I would like to see is how it compares to the GDP. Notice that it went down in the last Clinton years. You probably don’t remember this, but 16 years ago there was a big discussion of how to deal with the budget surplus. Basically, reduce the debt or cut taxes. Bush adopted the second (but basically most of the cutting to the wealthiest) and started two wars. With the obvious result. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619/12 "2016-10-04T14:12:16Z")
As mentioned, the chart is a bit out of date - the national debt is currently a bit over $19.5 trillion. > [@](#): > > Actually, what I would like to see is how it compares to the GDP. That’s easily done. [Cite](http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/oct/06/barack-obama/barack-obama-says-deficit-now-below-its-40-year-av/). Thru almost all the Bush years, it was below the 40 year average. Thru almost all the Obama years, it was over. It is generally agreed that Congress has much more to do with the deficit than the President, which is why the budget was in surplus after the GOP took over Congress, even though the Democratic President at the time proposed $200 billion deficits as far as the eye could see. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619/13 "2016-10-04T14:30:09Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > It is generally agreed that Congress has much more to do with the deficit than the President, which is why the budget was in surplus after the GOP took over Congress, even though the Democratic President at the time proposed $200 billion deficits as far as the eye could see. Yes, Congress has the primary fiscal power under the Constitution. However, the idea that it was Republican Congresses that produced budget surpluses is a political opinion, not a factual conclusion. The prevailing opinion is actually that the high rates of economic growth from the mid-1990s resulted in the budget surpluses far more than any change in the government’s fiscal policies (regardless if you wish to attribute those policies to the Republican Congress or the Democratic President). Though I will clearly leave this as opinion, there are quite a few who credit the 1990 budget deal between the Democratic Congress and the first Presidnt Bush as setting the stage for the surpluses in the following years. But again, to distinguish opinion from fact in this forum, my positive view of that budget deal is not an assertion of political consensus on that matter. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619/14 "2016-10-04T14:47:41Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > There’s a case for blaming Obama: he’s consistently requested $200 billion more than Congress has been willing to give him. To the extent the deficit has shrunk, it’s been entirely due to Congress since 2011. You’re ignoring the fact that Obama has tried to increase revenue (taxes), which Congress has blocked. Getting back to the OP, debt as a dollar figure isn’t very meaningful. In addition to inflation, the size of our economy has grown considerably. It’s more useful to look at [debt as a percentage of GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States#/media/File:51129-land-summaryfigure1(1).png). ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619/15 "2016-10-04T14:51:31Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Yes, Congress has the primary fiscal power under the Constitution. However, the idea that it was Republican Congresses that produced budget surpluses is a political opinion, not a factual conclusion. Especially since the 2013 [Sequestration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_budget_sequestration_in_2013) was a bipartisan compromise, with Democrats demanding defense spending cuts in exchange for accepting non-defense spending cuts. ---
**Author:** ![Caldazar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Caldazar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Caldazar)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619/16 "2016-10-04T14:52:59Z")
> [@Sputnikkk](#): > > Thanks, its probably good enough to show the person I’m ‘_debating_’ with in hopes they will understand not to just blame Obama, but sigh, that’s more depressing than I thought, even if it was half as bad as it looks in the chart, it makes me feel like we’re doomed. The historical revenue and outlays data would probably be more useful to you than a simple debt chart. For example, from the Congressional Budget Office: [Budget and Economic Data | Congressional Budget Office](https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget_economic_data#2) While discretionary spending has certainly been increasing, mandatory spending has been increasing at an even faster rate and is a significant factor in the budget deficits seen over the past couple decades. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619/17 "2016-10-04T14:58:41Z")
Let’s not forget quantitative easing … $80 billion a month given to the large commercial banks for five years to keep them out of bankruptcy. But I digress, the statistics show that under both presidents the debt increased, perhaps we should look elsewhere for causation. ---
**Author:** ![sbunny8](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c77e96/32.png) [@sbunny8](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sbunny8)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619/18 "2016-10-04T15:07:20Z")
> [@lisiate](#): > > It’d be a lot more meaningful if it were adjusted for inflation as well. Yes, adjust for inflation, but also adjusted for population growth. We have nearly Americans now as when Nixon was President. Actually, percentage of GDP is probably a better metric because it not only accounts for inflation, and also population growth, but also increasing wealth. And, As others have pointed out, it’s not fair to blame the current government for interest being paid on debt racked up by previous governments. So, the ideal graph would be one that shows annual deficits, excluding interest on the debt, as a percentage of GDP. But remember that some programs, like Social Security, are mandated by law and not subject to budgeting. So maybe we should only include the discretionary spending. Also, the deficit is the difference between expenditures and revenue. You can argue that the former is something the government can directly control but the latter is not. So maybe it would be more fair to focus just on discretionary spending, as a percentage of GDP, without regard to how much it exceeds revenue. And, don’t forget, looking at graphs like this starts with the unspoken assumption “debt is bad”, which is only mostly true for individuals/families and might be mostly false for entire countries. I’m just saying there’s room for discussion and disagreement on this point so it’s a bit disingenuous to simply assume that it’s true at the beginning of your discussion. Anyway, to answer the OP, that graph sucks because it’s not even adjusted for inflation. But, in the bigger picture, anytime anyone makes a graph about anything, if there’s two ways to do it (one way which makes your side look good and one way which makes your side look bad), you can bet the person drawing the graph will choose the way which makes their own side look good. ---
**Author:** ![sbunny8](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c77e96/32.png) [@sbunny8](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sbunny8)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619/19 "2016-10-04T15:16:52Z")
> [@sbunny8](#): > > We have nearly Americans now as when Nixon was President. That should have read “nearly _ **twice as many** _ Americans now” ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619/20 "2016-10-04T15:29:23Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > Let’s not forget quantitative easing … $80 billion a month given to the large commercial banks for five years to keep them out of bankruptcy. But I digress, the statistics show that under both presidents the debt increased, perhaps we should look elsewhere for causation. This has literally nothing to do with the size of the national debt, at least for the purposes that the OP is inquiring about. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/does-this-us-national-debt-chart-look-correct/767619.md?page=2)