# Donald Trump and the Doomsday clock. What time will it be? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 29, 2016, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821 "2016-12-29T03:30:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2017, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/41 "2017-01-28T15:22:01Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Perhaps quoting a character whose humanity has all but disappeared isn’t the best way to go. But then, Trump does bear astonishing similarities to Dr. Manhattan ethically. And Trump’s wife is very good at using the works of other without crediting the same too. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2017, 11:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/42 "2017-08-09T11:40:58Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > This is one of those situations where developments have shown the Doomsday Clock to be nothing more than a silly exercise in bad marketing. > > By their calculations, and keeping the clock analogy with its implied 24hr day, we are already 1437/1440th away from nuclear obliteration. So what does it matter if the US gives the bomb to Donald Trump? What are they going to do…raise that percentage from the current likelihood of 99.7916% to, what, 99.8611%? Even as an analogy: what the hell does that even mean: N Korea, with its few weapons, gets us to a 99.79% chance of humanity’s doom, and DJT with his thousands of bombs, only increases this threat by 6/10th’s of 1%? How do those numbers make any damned sense? > > If this idea had any validity and was, in fact, a measure of this groups concern about the direction of current events, they wouldn’t keep the clock within the range of 98.81%-99.81% of “midnight”. So, yeah, replying to myself to note that events of the past day have merely reaffirmed just how silly and mismanaged this marketing trick is. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2017, 11:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/43 "2017-08-09T11:55:35Z")
**JohnT** : You seem to be making lots of silly assumptions of how to interpret the clock and then blaming those who manage the clock for your wacky interpretation. In particular, you seem to be assuming it is a linear scale of probability based on a 24-hour day. I don’t think that either of these assumptions is very good. I am not sure if those who manage the clock have ever tried to get very quantitative about what it represents but there is certainly no reason to believe that your quantitative interpretation is anything near what they have in mind. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2017, 12:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/44 "2017-08-09T12:10:56Z")
There is no “assuming” there is a 24-hour day… it is inherent within the analogy and the marketing. “2 minutes before midnight” is, in fact, a statement which only makes sense within a “24-hour day” context. If you\* don’t want people to take the clock analogy seriously, then don’t use a clock analogy. \*the royal you ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2017, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/45 "2017-08-09T16:35:08Z")
The average person thinks of 2 minutes of midnight as being pretty damn close to the end of the day. I don’t think he thinks of 1 minute before midnight as only fractionally closer than 2 minutes before, the thinks of it as being twice as close as two minutes was. As long as we don’t get hung up in the weeds about the length of the day and what fraction of a day has elapsed, it works fine. We’re close to the edge of the end if the species, and going from 11:56 to 11:57 is significant. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2017, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/46 "2017-08-09T16:50:42Z")
To mix our metaphors, a “doomsday clock” which is always crying wolf eventually means nothing and becomes irrelevant. Since I’m offering unsolicited opinions here, the thing should fluctuate, weekly, between 6pm and midnight. The fact that the election of Donald Trump moves it ahead by “30 seconds”, and this week doesn’t move it at all, again, to me, shows it is poorly thought out and handled. And, lastly (because I have enjoyed calling this thing dumb for 25+ years and will definitely be one of my “grandpa is ranting again” points in another 25+), if the clock doesn’t really measure anything in any sort of objective manner, then what’s the point? :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Superdude](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/superdude/32/13450_2.png) [@Superdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superdude)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2017, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/47 "2017-08-09T17:05:09Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > Break out the stopwatch. …And keep Doc Brown away from the clock tower. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2017, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/48 "2017-08-09T18:18:29Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > This is one of those situations where developments have shown the Doomsday Clock to be nothing more than a silly exercise in bad marketing. > > By their calculations, and keeping the clock analogy with its implied 24hr day, we are already 1437/1440th away from nuclear obliteration. So what does it matter if the US gives the bomb to Donald Trump? What are they going to do…raise that percentage from the current likelihood of 99.7916% to, what, 99.8611%? Even as an analogy: what the hell does that even mean: N Korea, with its few weapons, gets us to a 99.79% chance of humanity’s doom, and DJT with his thousands of bombs, only increases this threat by 6/10th’s of 1%? How do those numbers make any damned sense? > > If this idea had any validity and was, in fact, a measure of this groups concern about the direction of current events, they wouldn’t keep the clock within the range of 98.81%-99.81% of “midnight”. Yep. It’s “Wolf”, “\*Wolf” - “WOLF!!”, "Wolf. " ---
**Author:** ![Tatterdemalion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/43a26b/32.png) [@Tatterdemalion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tatterdemalion)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2017, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/49 "2017-08-09T18:26:37Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Yep. It’s “Wolf”, “\*Wolf” > > - “WOLF!!”, "Wolf. " Where wolf? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2017, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/50 "2017-08-09T18:37:25Z")
> [@Tatterdemalion](#): > > Where wolf? _There_ wolf. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2017, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/51 "2017-08-09T18:45:31Z")
They’re going to need to add a seconds hand pretty soon. ---
**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2017, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/52 "2017-08-09T18:58:11Z")
Tillerson: “Ignore POTUS.” Of course it might be better if Mattis had said it, but that would be a whole different problem. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2017, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/53 "2017-08-10T01:55:08Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > The average person thinks of 2 minutes of midnight as being pretty damn close to the end of the day. I don’t think he thinks of 1 minute before midnight as only fractionally closer than 2 minutes before, the thinks of it as being twice as close as two minutes was. Indeed. **JohnT** seems to be insistent that his wacky interpretation is the only logical one. However, he seems to be the only one who interprets it this way. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2017, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/54 "2017-08-10T05:22:24Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > This is one of those situations where developments have shown the Doomsday Clock to be nothing more than a silly exercise in bad marketing. Yes. The original Doomsday Clock was just a P.R. move to alert us to nuclear dangers. Since then, they move the hands now and then just to attract further publicity. Still, it is worthwhile to remind us of dangers. > [@BobLibDem](#): > > … the Pakistani defense minister [fell for a fake news story and threatened nuclear attacks on Israel.](http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/26/middleeast/israel-pakistan-fake-news-nuclear/) It might very well be a fake news story that sets off Armageddon. America’s new love for Orwellian fake news is a very unfortunate development. This shows another reason why. (Yes, AWDNews may not be American — who finances it?) > [@Morgenstern](#): > > You’re forgetting about the other idiot in the room. The orange one. > _“I’ll have to be very careful here,” Scarborough said. “Several months ago, a foreign policy expert on international level went to advise Donald Trump, and three times he asked about the use of nuclear weapons. Three times he asked, at one point, if we have them, why can’t we use them? That’s one of the reasons he just doesn’t have foreign policy experts around him. Three times, in an hour briefing, why can’t we use nuclear weapons.”_ > > [Joe Scarborough: Donald Trump Repeatedly Asked Why We Couldn't Use Nukes | HuffPost Latest News](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/scarborough-trump-nukes_us_57a1e47ae4b0693164c347d0) > > One leader is a enemy of the US, the other a complete buffoon. Both have access to nuclear weapons. What could possibly go wrong? Contrary to those worthy scientists who set hands on the Domesday Clock, I’ve always felt the collapse of the USSR _increased_, rather than decreased the danger of nuclear war. > [@running\_coach](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > Um, a lot, but the subject here was how high “destroy the U.S.” is on Putin’s to do list. I haven’t seen much to convince me it’s very high, if there at all. > > He outsourced the job. > [@Sherrerd](#): > > Yes. That, or a tweet from a belligerent thin-skinned lackwit… America has a real political dilemma on its hands. Soon, Pence will probably be President and he’ll complete the destruction of environmental protections, human rights, and the middle class that Trump is too incompetent to accomplish. OTOH, a military catastrophe will be much less likely under Pence. Personally, I’d want to gamble on Trump till at least the 2018 elections since turmoil within the GOP can only help the American electorate choose correctly. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2017, 10:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/55 "2017-08-10T10:54:47Z")
> [@jshore](#): > > Indeed. **JohnT** seems to be insistent that his wacky interpretation is the only logical one. However, he seems to be the only one who interprets it this way. If that was how clocks work, that would be OK. But nobody sees a clock go from 9:58 to 9:59, saying “wow, we’re 50% closer to 10:00!” That, literally, makes no sense and has happened in the history of never. Again, since you seem to not get my point, the DD clock is a _metaphor_. However, if, as you insist, it’s not supposed to represent time at all (or even represent a clock) then why use a clock as your metaphor? Sorry, but my “bizarre” interpretation is set firmly in how clocks and metaphors work. The DD clock, as it is currently.managed, fails miserably at both. And, lastly, a simple review of this thread will show I am not the only one who thinks the DD clock is worthless. Please, keep it real, JShore. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2017, 11:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/56 "2017-08-10T11:03:10Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > The average person thinks of 2 minutes of midnight as being pretty damn close to the end of the day. I don’t think he thinks of 1 minute before midnight as only fractionally closer than 2 minutes before, the thinks of it as being twice as close as two minutes was. > > As long as we don’t get hung up in the weeds about the length of the day and what fraction of a day has elapsed, it works fine. We’re close to the edge of the end if the species, and going from 11:56 to 11:57 is significant. Yeah, but the metaphor seems to fail if the only thing that can set the clock at any point before 11:50 or whatever is the total destruction of all nuclear weapons. And even then, as long as the knowledge exists, the clock can’t be set before, say, 11 pm. So what’s the point of having the clock be that fine? ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2017, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/57 "2017-08-10T11:09:01Z")
Exactly. The way they use this thing destroys its value as a metaphor and, therefore, gives us no valid information at all. Like I said: A marketing stunt, poorly thought out and badly handled. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2017, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/58 "2017-08-10T11:48:13Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Yeah, but the metaphor seems to fail if the only thing that can set the clock at any point before 11:50 or whatever is the total destruction of all nuclear weapons. And even then, as long as the knowledge exists, the clock can’t be set before, say, 11 pm. > > So what’s the point of having the clock be that fine? Because we’re currently only dealing with a very small portion of history since the clock started. The metaphor is that humanity’s 24 hours on Earth are almost up. Or, at least, that what I always thought. I’ve not looked into it or anything. As for the OP: given Trump’s response to North Korea, we are probably in more danger of a nuclear doomsday since at least 1990. And, what’s worse, this was fucking predictable, and exactly what we warned against before the election. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2017, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/59 "2017-08-10T12:14:51Z")
Does anyone even pay attention to the thing anymore? It’s a Cold War relic, at best. But now I think someone needs to publish the definitive _History of Never_. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2017, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/60 "2017-08-10T12:20:24Z")
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