# Donald Trump and the runup to the 2024 election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [August 3, 2024, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196 "2024-08-03T16:49:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2024, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196/201 "2024-09-01T16:23:28Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > “I’d never stand on a grave and pose with a big grin and a thumbs up. But if _he_ dies before me, it could happen.” I propose we crowd fund a giant statue of him doing the grin&thumb, and install it wherever he gets buried. We’ll need a team dedicated to replacing it every time it gets moved/destroyed. ---
**Author:** ![outlierrn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/outlierrn/32/3005_2.png) [@outlierrn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/outlierrn)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196/202 "2024-09-02T00:23:23Z")
Now that’s a trading card I could get behind. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196/203 "2024-09-02T00:58:56Z")
Checking his website for upcoming events, I see that there is nothing for Labor Day. Trump has a “policy tour” in Georgia and Arizona on Tuesday (it must be virtual, since both are at the same time), another one Thursday in Milwaukee, before he finally hosts another rally on Saturday at… Mosinee, Wisconsin. Population 4,500. At the airport. He’s really tearing up the campaign trail. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196/204 "2024-09-02T01:10:45Z")
In today’s email from Jeff Tiedrich, he [quotes this guy](https://x.com/maddenifico/status/1829945432472248675?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email): > _“so I’ve been noticing a troubling pattern. where Donald Trump has been holding his rallies the last few weeks has been egregious. Howell, Michigan. Lacrosse, Wisconsin. Johnstown, Pennsylvania — now what do these places have in common? they’re all sundown towns. this is where Donald Trump is choosing to hold his rallies. sundown towns. they want to go back to fuckin’ Dred Scott. make America great again. when was America ever great? you got a presidential candidate for the GOP doing a sundown town tour around the country. not looking for political gain. he’s fuckin’ rallying the troops. these crybaby bitches want nothing but a civil war again. make no mistake about it, folks, this is a real threat. these motherfuckers are domestic terrorists and they need to be treated accordingly.”_ ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196/205 "2024-09-02T01:15:15Z")
Gee. Sounds like he’s pretty sure he’s going to lose the election. Contingency plans in the pipeline, coming to life if he can rally 'em up. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196/206 "2024-09-02T01:22:28Z")
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > [quoting an email]…so I’ve been noticing a troubling pattern. where Donald Trump has been holding his rallies the last few weeks has been egregious. Howell, Michigan. Lacrosse, Wisconsin. Johnstown, Pennsylvania — now what do these places have in common? they’re all sundown towns… Interesting. What makes Mosinee, Wisconsin potentially notable? > [@](#): > > I had come to Mosinee in search of evidence of events that took place here nearly 70 years earlier. In 1950, just three months after Joseph McCarthy, the U.S. senator from Wisconsin, warned of “enemies from within” in his infamous speech in Wheeling, West Virginia, the residents of Mosinee decided to show the world the true horror of communism by staging a fake Communist takeover of their town. The event—featuring costumed citizens, fake concentration camps, and an all-too-real death toll of two—was envisioned as a representative “pageant,” a fear-driven demonstration of a possible future. > **[The Small, Midwestern Town Taken Over by Fake Communists](https://newrepublic.com/article/159873/small-midwestern-town-taken-fake-communists)** > > In the 1950s, the residents of Mosinee, Wisconsin, staged a coup to warn of the dangers of the red menace. The lessons of that historical footnote have never been more relevant. Ah, yet another quaint moment to reminisce. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196/207 "2024-09-02T01:37:39Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > Gee. Sounds like he’s pretty sure he’s going to lose the election. Contingency plans in the pipeline, coming to life if he can rally 'em up. I see nothing in the polls that should make anyone pretty sure he’s going to lose the election. And I see nothing in the books I’ve read about Trump telling me that he’s abnormally pessimistic. He usually likes speaking before adoring fans. But every time he does it, he risks saying something new that can be used against him. Plus he is liable to again flip-flop on abortion. Maybe Susie Wiles thinks the flip-flops are getting too numerous, and wants him to campaign as little as possible. She cannot dictate how he talks, but perhaps can influence whether he talks. Remember that when Trump won, he was outspent 2 - 1. The less he campaigns the better. Maybe he’s listening to that advice. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196/208 "2024-09-02T01:43:50Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I see nothing in the polls that should make anyone pretty sure he’s going to lose the election. The polls are useless. They’ve been heavily skewed against Democrats for at least several years now. If the “red tsunami” of 2022 that wasn’t didn’t prove that, then the polls from this time last year that had RFK Jr. at 25% in New Hampshire sure did. I fully expect the election results to be at LEAST 5 to 7 points more favorable to Democrats than the polls have been. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196/209 "2024-09-02T01:47:41Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I see nothing in the polls that should make anyone pretty sure he’s going to lose the election. You rely too much on polls. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196/210 "2024-09-02T01:57:09Z")
Maybe, but the post of yours I was responding to wasn’t about my ideas. The post states that it “sounds like” Trump is “pretty sure he’s going to lose the election.” And, from what I read, Donald is obsessed with polls. So if he’s pretty sure of how the election is going, polls would be central. And Trump was acting defeatist, his aides would spin the most positive polling results to buck him up. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196/211 "2024-09-02T01:59:09Z")
Your exact words were, “I see nothing in the polls that should make anyone pretty sure he’s going to lose the election.” I don’t know how anyone could understand that to mean anything _but_ your ideas. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196/212 "2024-09-02T02:04:28Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > The polls are useless. They’ve been heavily skewed against Democrats for at least several years now. If the “red tsunami” of 2022 that wasn’t didn’t prove that, The polls were historically accurate in 2022. The “red tsunami” was a narrative advanced by the media _in spite of_ the polls. > **[The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/)** > > Let’s give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever — and yet, the polling industry just had one of… ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196/213 "2024-09-02T02:10:34Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > Your exact words were, “I see nothing in the polls that should make anyone pretty sure he’s going to lose the election.” I don’t know how anyone could understand that to mean anything _but_ your ideas. It was in the context of what Trump thinks. He thinks polls are important and meaningful. It is certainly possible to think the polls are useless, or systematically biased against the Democrats. But is not possible to both respect them and be a Republican defeatist. And if Trump did think the polls were skewed, he would think they were skewed against him, as in 2016 and 2020. He wouldn’t be panicking over primary or off-year polls, but how much better he is doing today (against Harris) than he was doing four years aga today (against Biden). Trump has not given up, not publicly and not privately. If he acts depressed, it’s that his aides are telling him to stop saying stuff he loves to say. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196/214 "2024-09-02T02:20:28Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > It is certainly possible to think the polls are useless, or systematically biased against the Democrats. I did not say polls were useless. Please don’t put words in my mouth. I said you rely on them too much. I don’t know, claim to know or care what Trump thinks. > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > He wouldn’t be panicking over primary or off-year polls, but how much better he is doing today (against Harris) than he was doing four years aga today (against Biden). I did not say Trump is panicking. I said he has possibly concluded he can’t win this election by conventional means, same as he didn’t win 2020. > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Trump has not given up, not publicly and not privately. I don’t know this, and neither do you. I take polls with a big grain of salt. What I’m relying on is the 12 million people who have died since 2020, many of whom skewed MAGA and won’t be voting in 2024. I’m looking at the many new young voters who are registering to vote for the first time in 2024. They’re not being counted in any polls. I’m looking at the many women who, whether they will say so to a pollster or their significant other or not, understand that their very lives may depend on how they vote in this upcoming election. I’m looking at candidate quality. I’m looking at ground games that the Dems have mounted in battleground states that Republicans have not. I’m looking at how much better prepared we are to stop foreign interference in our elections than we were in 2016. And I’m looking at a rather massive and undeniable enthusiasm gap that favors Dems in 2024. I still believe it will be a close election. But I think Trump’s only efforts going forward, as evidenced by his choices of where he’s “campaigning,” are toward creating chaos, confusion and fear, in the hope of attempting another election steal. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196/215 "2024-09-02T02:21:48Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > Your exact words were, “I see nothing in the polls that should make anyone pretty sure he’s going to lose the election.” I don’t know how anyone could understand that to mean anything _but_ your ideas. If I may speak for PhillyGuy, that’s a figure of speech. He was being nice, and trying to let you Pollyannas down gently. He was saying “There is NOTHING in the polls that should make anyone pretty sure he’s going to lose the election.” PhillyGuy’s “ideas” don’t enter into this picture in any way, shape, or form. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196/216 "2024-09-02T02:22:30Z")
If that was my misunderstanding, I apologize. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196/217 "2024-09-02T02:27:40Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > The polls were historically accurate in 2022. …says the guy who gets paid to look at polls for a living and has a vested interest in selling the narrative that polls are more accurate than ever. How did RFK Jr.'s 25% in New Hampshire work out for him? > [@flurb](#): > > The “red tsunami” was a narrative advanced by the media _in spite of_ the polls. The media knows now that they can push a narrative in order to create the poll responses they want. That’s how they forced Biden out of the race. It backfired on them because they didn’t get the free-for-all blitz primary ratings bonanza with American Idol-style live TV appearances and judge panels with Taylor Swift and Mr. Beast that they were hoping for. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196/218 "2024-09-02T02:32:36Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > > [@flurb](#): > > > > The polls were historically accurate in 2022. > > …says the guy who gets paid to look at polls for a living and has a vested interest in selling the narrative that polls are more accurate than ever. Simon Rosenberg also agrees the polls were accurate, once you stripped out the partisan polls: > **[The guy who got the midterms right explains what the media got wrong](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/11/27/23475262/midterm-elections-2022-results-red-wave-democrats)** > > The media fell for a false “red wave” narrative. I also have a _New York Times_ article cite but I know that’ll give everyone the vapors. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196/219 "2024-09-02T02:42:52Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > If that was my misunderstanding, I apologize. I should have just talked about how Trump would look at the race given available data, period, not how anyone would. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196/220 "2024-09-02T02:45:16Z")
The one place where the polls have been consistently and wildly wrong is how they’ve predicted the outcomes for the many special elections that have been held since 2022 and _Roe_ was overturned. Almost none have gone as predicted. I think those are also a pretty good indicator of what we might expect in 2024. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/1005196.md?page=12)