# Donald Trump's 2016 General Election Campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 4, 2016, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901 "2016-05-04T02:37:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/201 "2016-05-07T17:57:44Z")
> [@truthSeeker2](#): > > 76% is held by public , rest is intragovernmental holdings (primarily composed of the Medicare Trust Fund, the Social Security Trust Fund, and Federal Financing Bank securities.) In other words, money the government owes itself. You used the term ‘public debt’ originally. I guess we’ll agree it’s 76% then. > [@](#): > > I am wrong about 10 times. It is ~4.9 times from 2007 till today: And if you choose 2010 as a starting point, or 1950, or some other arbitrary year, it’s considerably less. Why 2007, exactly? As another poster said, this looks very much like cherry-picking data to suit your purpose. > [@](#): > > I have talked many times about how Trump represents hope for a disruptive change. Devaluation of dollar etc. Look up my earlier posts. Pass. Given the poor quality of the information you’ve presented here, it would clearly be a waste of time. BTW, you seem to still be missing the point. My main question was, what would be the advantges of Mr. Trump’s ‘plan’ (more a notion, really)? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/202 "2016-05-07T18:20:00Z")
Simplicity itself. Pay off our debts at a discounted rate, and the result is we are debt free! Therefore, our standing with potential creditors will be enhanced, making us a much more desirable lendee! ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/203 "2016-05-07T18:23:44Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Simplicity itself. Pay off our debts at a discounted rate, and the result is we are debt free! Therefore, our standing with potential creditors will be enhanced, making us a much more desirable lendee! “Debt’s forgotten. Forget debt.” ---
**Author:** ![truthSeeker2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7cd45c/32.png) [@truthSeeker2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/truthSeeker2)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/204 "2016-05-07T18:24:47Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#): > > In other words, money the government owes itself. You used the term ‘public debt’ originally. I guess we’ll agree it’s 76% then. No. Public debt = government debt which is 106%. Intragovernmental agencies holding some govt. debt is of zero relevence. US government faces liabilities (through those intragovernmental agencies) for Social Security and other entitlement programs that exceed the funds in the various trust funds by $60 trillion. (Yes $60 trillion!! ) > [@](#): > > And if you choose 2010 as a starting point, or 1950, or some other arbitrary year, it’s considerably less. Why 2007, exactly? As another poster said, this looks very much like cherry-picking data to suit your purpose. No, the point is trajectory of debt growth vs. GDP growth is unsustainable. Let us say they decide to keep debt almost constant (meaning they don’t make the bubble even bigger) . say debt grows just by 0.01%. But GDP will fall in that case as economy certainly goes into recession. Then would you say that debt is growing infinite times faster than GDP? The point is there is a debt bubble. > [@](#): > > BTW, you seem to still be missing the point. My main question was, what would be the advantges of Mr. Trump’s ‘plan’ (more a notion, really)? I will provide links to earlier posts later on if you are fine with that. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/205 "2016-05-07T18:28:57Z")
About those debates. Gonna put down my nickel to say they won’t happen. Trump will refuse to lend his stature and credibility to Hillary deVille because of his unfair treatment by the media. He will harvest the same amount of media coverage without having to face being contradicted by facts. You know, this is still six months out, I’m beginning to think things could get kinda weird… ---
**Author:** ![truthSeeker2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7cd45c/32.png) [@truthSeeker2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/truthSeeker2)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/206 "2016-05-07T18:31:19Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Simplicity itself. Pay off our debts at a discounted rate, and the result is we are debt free! Therefore, our standing with potential creditors will be enhanced, making us a much more desirable lendee! People think this will somehow be catastrophic for the world. Honesty is catastrophic, lies are fine! ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/207 "2016-05-07T18:44:46Z")
> [@MandaJo](#): > > In an interview the other day, Trump [suggested](http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/05/07/us/politics/donald-trumps-idea-to-cut-national-debt-get-creditors-to-accept-less.html?referer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F)that the U.S. debt could be negotiated down, which I am pretty sure would destroy the world economy. I don’t even know what to do with that. Who does he think owns most U.S. debt? Because it’s mostly voters and the retirement funds of voters. Provided voters can be made to understand that, it seems like a poor strategy. … As I know you realize, Trump’s voters CANNOT be made to understand that. Full stop. Because it’s boring numbers stuff! Instead, how about some snappy nicknames for his political opponents–“Goofus” for Elizabeth Warren! It’s funny because it’s so specific! Hahahaha! There’s _nothing_ Trump can say about his economic plans–no matter how appallingly idiotic and dangerous those plans may be–that will bother his fans. They have faith that he will Bring Back The Factories With High-Paying Jobs, and nothing–_nothing_–can shake that faith. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/208 "2016-05-07T19:40:43Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > You know, this is still six months out, I’m beginning to think things could get kinda weird… You’re just now beginning? I’ve been looking at my TV for the _last_ six months saying, “Christ, what an imagination I’ve got!” ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/209 "2016-05-07T22:00:42Z")
> [@truthSeeker2](#): > > People think this will somehow be catastrophic for the world. Honesty is catastrophic, lies are fine! Are you playing devil’s advocate, or are you just not that much into economics? An inability to borrow on the part of the US would plunge the world into depression. Has zip to do with honesty or lying. And that’s no exaggeration. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2016, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/210 "2016-05-08T05:16:10Z")
> [@MandaJo](#): > > In an interview the other day, Trump [suggested](http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/05/07/us/politics/donald-trumps-idea-to-cut-national-debt-get-creditors-to-accept-less.html?referer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F)that the U.S. debt could be negotiated down, which I am pretty sure would destroy the world economy. I don’t even know what to do with that. Who does he think owns most U.S. debt? Because it’s mostly voters and the retirement funds of voters. Students and credit-card borrowers are expected to pay their debts 100 cents on the dollar. Homeowners were expected to pay in full even when their home equity was negative. _But Trump is a businessman who has built his career on stiffing bondholders.__ **That’s what he knows.** _ Give a kid a hammer and he’ll find a lot of things look like nails. I wouldn’t elect that kid to be President but many Americans feel differently. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2016, 5:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/211 "2016-05-08T05:35:15Z")
> [@truthSeeker2](#): > > Calculating CAGR (compounded annual rate of growth): > > Debt grew at 9.86% CAGR for 8 yrs from 2007 to 2015. > GDP grew at 2.66% CAGR for 8 yrs from 2007 to 2015. Congratulations on converting to annual rates. You do know a little math. Now try this: _If you wanted to measure the rate of Northern Hemisphere warming, would you compare January temperature with a summer temperature six months later_ **and then extrapolate?** No? But that’s similar to what you do by cherry-picking the aftermath of the greatest financial crisis in almost a century. The CBO estimates the current-year deficit as $534 billion. Debt is $19.2 trillion. This translates to an annual debt increase for 2016 of less than 2.8%. And [Here’s a chart which shows the debt-to-GDP ratio about the same as it was 3 years ago.](https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GFDEGDQ188S) I support sane, gradual moves to reduce public debt. But please let’s not muddy the waters by being gullible and grabbing numbers from clowns and gold peddlers on Youtube. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2016, 6:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/212 "2016-05-08T06:09:27Z")
Schiff is a joke. He’s been predicting an economic apocalypse since I can remember, and then of course claimed he knew the market crash of 2007-8 would happen. I trust his opinion about as much as I trust Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Starving\_Artist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Starving\_Artist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Starving_Artist)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2016, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/213 "2016-05-08T06:49:59Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Students and credit-card borrowers are expected to pay their debts 100 cents on the dollar. Homeowners were expected to pay in full even when their home equity was negative. _But Trump is a businessman who has built his career on stiffing bondholders.__ **That’s what he knows.** _ Give a kid a hammer and he’ll find a lot of things look like nails. I wouldn’t elect that kid to be President but many Americans feel differently. According to his filings with the Federal Election Commission, Trump is the owner or serves in an executive capacity some 515 businesses, of which 268 contain his name only, which implies full ownership of those businesses at least. Trump has taken exactly four of his businesses into bankruptcy, and even those aren’t the types of bankruptcy most people are familiar with where the slate is wiped clean and creditors lose everything. Trump’s organization took those four companies into Chapter 11 bankruptcy, which allows the the debtor to reorganize the business in an attempt to save it. In the event the debtor becomes insolvent, its creditors take over the reorganized business, whereupon they’re free to run it or sell it off themselves. Thus there’s at least some chance in a Chapter 11 bankruptcy that the businesses’ creditors may recover all or some of their original investment, with additional profits possible in the event the business’s creditors are able to operate the reorganized business successfully. So it’s utter nonsense to say Trump has ‘built his career on stiffing bondholders’, and in the interest of fighting ignorance people around here really need to wise up and stop making that claim. ---
**Author:** ![truthSeeker2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7cd45c/32.png) [@truthSeeker2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/truthSeeker2)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2016, 7:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/214 "2016-05-08T07:39:07Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Congratulations on converting to annual rates. You do know a little math. Now try this: > > _If you wanted to measure the rate of Northern Hemisphere warming, would you compare January temperature with a summer temperature six months later_ **and then extrapolate?** > No? But that’s similar to what you do by cherry-picking the aftermath of the greatest financial crisis in almost a century. > > The CBO estimates the current-year deficit as $534 billion. Debt is $19.2 trillion. This translates to an annual debt increase for 2016 of less than 2.8%. And [Here’s a chart which shows the debt-to-GDP ratio about the same as it was 3 years ago.](https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GFDEGDQ188S) > > I support sane, gradual moves to reduce public debt. But please let’s not muddy the waters by being gullible and grabbing numbers from clowns and gold peddlers on Youtube. As per the same agency (CBO) , the Govt. debt held by public will grow from 76% of GDP currently to [over a 100%](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/50250) in a couple of decades. Add to that the intragovernmental holdings which may be 40% after 20 years from 30% now at same pace. So total = 100+40=140% as per the estimates. I dont see the ‘reducing debt’. And these are just estimates which can easily be rendered way off target in case of economic downturn ( expected imo). ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2016, 10:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/215 "2016-05-08T10:28:51Z")
Huckabee came out strongly for party unity. [Blasting Ryan.](http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/279018-huckabee-to-ryan-lead-follow-or-get-the-heck-out-of-the) Huck has defended Trump several times.[Like in Feb](http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/02/mike-huckabee-donald-trump-kkk-219954) Huckabee might be considered for VP. Huckabee did a good job as my Governor and he knows the Clinton machine better than most outsiders. He’d be a good asset for Trump. > [@](#): > > The former Arkansas governor’s daughter and former campaign manager, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, has joined the Trump campaign. > > Read more: [http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/02/mike-huckabee-donald-trump-kkk-219954#ixzz483ijMlV2](http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/02/mike-huckabee-donald-trump-kkk-219954#ixzz483ijMlV2) > Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2016, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/216 "2016-05-08T10:43:58Z")
> [@truthSeeker2](#): > > I am wrong about 10 times. It is ~4.9 times from 2007 till today: > . “10 times.” “4.9 times.” See below. > [@truthSeeker2](#): > > As per the same agency (CBO) , the Govt. debt held by public will grow from 76% of GDP currently to [over a 100%](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/50250) in a couple of decades. I clicked your link just enough to see you abbreviated “25 years” to “a couple of decades.” :smack: But let’s not worry about economics yet. I’ll teach you some simple arithmetic. Start with this word problem: _ **็By how much must debt growth exceed GDP growth to change 76% into 100% in 25 years?** _ Solution: Start by writing x^25 = 1/.76. Rearrange terms and type “exp(ln(1/.76)/25)” into the Google calculator. Google will display “1.01103794737” 1.104% is therefore the growth you would need were GDP constant. But GDP growth won’t be zero. Suppose it is 2%, or more generally, u. Then by algebra you will find the ratio of debt growth to GDP growth, given the 1.104% net increase, to be _1.01104 + .01104/u_ or 1.56 when u = 2%. That’s right. 1.56 times. Not your scare figure of 4.9 times (let alone your initial gambit of “10 times” :eek: ). 1.56 times. I know what you’re thinking: “Ten times. … One and a half times … Who cares? It’s the _principle_ of the thing!!” Well, Peter Schiff may not care, and you may not care, but if you want to have an intelligent conversation with adults it really would be better not to just pull random numbers out of your ass. (Or Mr. Schiff’s ass as the case may be.) > [@truthSeeker2](#): > > Peter Schiff in my view is the most honest and smartest American economist. 😃 > [@running\_coach](#): > > He’s a flat taxer. He’s an idiot. It’s even worse than that. His preference is to abolish all corporate and personal income tax and raise all government revenue via a sales tax. ---
**Author:** ![truthSeeker2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7cd45c/32.png) [@truthSeeker2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/truthSeeker2)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2016, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/217 "2016-05-08T13:00:04Z")
1. Even a 1.56 reinforces my point. The trajectory of debt growth vs GDP growth is unsustainable. It should scare you. You seem to comfort yourself thinking debt is getting reduced. It is not. 2. USA rapidly increased its Federal Debt following the 2008 recession. My view is that GDP is still showing the 2% growth rate due to lag effect of that rapid debt expansion and that there could be a recession soon. GDP growth rate assumption of 2% is very optimistic. Japan started to age before USA. it has tried QEs, zero rate, high Federal debt (230% of GDP) already. So, I calculated average of GDP growth rates from 1996 to 2014 from [this](http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?page=3) source. It comes to around 0.8%. I know this is not accurate but using it for a rough estimate. More technology (more automation, more jobs redundant) than last 2 decades is also a headwind for jobs and GDP imo. If you take GDP growth rate as 0.8%, 1.56 will go up to 2.4 times. Anyhow, I think we are missing the point here. The point is, trajectory of debt growth vs GDP growth is unsustainable. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2016, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/218 "2016-05-08T13:18:25Z")
Then they better not elect Trump. He’s going to increase the defecit and make things even worse. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2016, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/219 "2016-05-08T18:32:48Z")
nm ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2016, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/220 "2016-05-08T18:44:33Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > I know what you’re thinking: “Ten times. … One and a half times … Who cares? It’s the _principle_ of the thing!!” > [@truthSeeker2](#): > > 1. Even a 1.56 reinforces my point. No. You miss my point which is that you lose all credibility with scare figures like “ten times” when simple arithmetic shows the correct number to be “less than two times.” If your reasoning were correct — it isn’t — you’d have no need to make up fake inflated numbers. If you want serious debate, start posting real facts instead of gibberish. How many chances do you expect to get? > [@truthSeeker2](#): > > You seem to comfort yourself thinking debt is getting reduced. Wrong again, as even the post to which you respond shows. :smack: In another previous post I said I favored rational and gradual debt reduction. > [@truthSeeker2](#): > > Anyhow, I think we are missing the point here. You support debt reduction by defaulting, and don’t seem to realize default has severe consequences similar to devaluation. In other posts you advocate policies that would lead to inflation. Yet, in still other posts you advocate a return to the gold standard. And the common thread which links all your “economics” posts is the short-term direction of gold or stock prices. :rolleyes: It is you who are missing many points. And you seem to have developed a philosophy based on several _ **mutually contradictory** _ YouTube bloggers. :smack: [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901.md?page=12)