# Donald Trump's 2016 General Election Campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 4, 2016, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901 "2016-05-04T02:37:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 122
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2423 "2016-07-12T15:11:09Z")
This is going to be an epic disaster. I’m hoping Scott Baio gives the keynote. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2424 "2016-07-12T15:22:31Z")
Honestly, I can’t decide between watching it live or binge watching it afterwards. It’ll be the funniest comedy on television, the scariest thriller, and the second act of the most epic Shakespearian tragedy ever, all at the same time. Five years from now FX is going to have a ferocious internal debate over whether the Trump campaign should get a season on “American Horror Story” or “American Crime Story.” ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2425 "2016-07-12T15:47:45Z")
Expectations for the convention are so low that basic competence will be seen as #Winning! ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2426 "2016-07-12T15:57:12Z")
As much as I would like to see fisticuffs on the floor (nothing serious, mind you. Just some bloody noses) I don’t see it happening. There’ll be some chaos during the rules votes and some mixed reaction during the balloting, but they’ll quickly settle down and digest the shit sandwich that they’re going to choke down. There’ll be some speeches that will bomb, though perhaps not of Eastwoodian scale. Trump’s speech will make us wonder what anybody saw in him, and Pence’s will make the floor wonder why the ticket isn’t flipped. Then they’ll all go home and the place will be hosed down with disinfectant and holy water. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2427 "2016-07-12T16:49:26Z")
From [Guido Fawkes](http://order-order.com/2016/07/12/barriers-cops-labour-nec-meet/#disqus_thread) comes this [comment](http://disq.us/p/19yn1s5): > [@](#): > > Christ, looking at Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. She actually looks clinically insane. > > Trump could win this, the debates are likely to be wonderful for him. She’ll be brilliantly prepared and look like a mannequin with a disturbed grin. He’s batshit crazy but comes over as a real person. People tend to prefer humans for President. Style over substance? ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2428 "2016-07-12T16:59:00Z")
The debates are likely to be good TV that will change absolutely nobody’s minds. Trump will come out with his usual bullying and bluster, Clinton will counter with indisputable facts and refuse to be bullied, and Trump will do a phone interview on Fox News the next morning where he talks about how “everyone says I won the debate” and how Clinton, the moderator, and the Commission were all “very unfair to me”. Nobody who is supporting Trump is going to change their mind based on the facts, no one supporting Clinton is going to be bullied into supporting Trump, and the press will make hay about the opinions of a handful of low-information voters in Ohio who haven’t decided because they just don’t know what the candidates stand for yet. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2429 "2016-07-12T17:18:19Z")
Yeah. Close is 2000, where both candidates are pretty centrist, neither looks insane from sniper-fire range, and the country is on a fairly even keel. In that scenario, there are meaningful numbers of undecideds who _don’t_ stare at the Sun because they’re not sure where the burning sensation is coming from. Those elections are close, and make amazingly high ratings. CNN loves it almost as much as it loves random gunfire and prophecies of race war. This election is not going to be close. Trump has done too well in energizing the media, and everyone knows he’s spraypainted insanity in a bad comb-over. They either hate him or want to follow him into a racially-pure holy land, and most Americans consistently hate him, poll after poll, for the whole primary season. Listen to a single poll and you’re a traditional pundit, listen to a whole bunch of polls and do some math and you’re Nate Silver or, better, [Sam Wang](http://election.princeton.edu/2016/01/27/hey-may-i-just-sign-off-until-summer/). (Note the date on that one.) ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2430 "2016-07-12T17:20:21Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > The debates are likely to be good TV that will change absolutely nobody’s minds. Trump will come out with his usual bullying and bluster, Clinton will counter with indisputable facts and refuse to be bullied, and Trump will do a phone interview on Fox News the next morning where he talks about how “everyone says I won the debate” and how Clinton, the moderator, and the Commission were all “very unfair to me”. Strategy for Clinton: excuse herself to the bathroom every half hour or, when Trump starts talking about his penis, tell him she spoke to Ivana, Marla and Melania and they all agreed that Bill’s is bigger. _That_ would be good TV. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2431 "2016-07-12T17:40:29Z")
She’d do well to make some good, _funny_ jokes at Trump’s expense. Knock some wind out of his sails, and fight the perception she’s really here to find Sarah Connor. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2432 "2016-07-12T19:13:16Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > This election is not going to be close. Trump has done too well in energizing the media, and everyone knows he’s spraypainted insanity in a bad comb-over. They either hate him or want to follow him into a racially-pure holy land, and most Americans consistently hate him, poll after poll, for the whole primary season. Listen to a single poll and you’re a traditional pundit, listen to a whole bunch of polls and do some math and you’re Nate Silver or, better, [Sam Wang](http://election.princeton.edu/2016/01/27/hey-may-i-just-sign-off-until-summer/). (Note the date on that one.) Both Silver and Wang give Trump a non-insignificant chance of winning the election. (Silver more so.) I believe those guys. People keep saying Trump is hated by most Americans and, hell, I think that may be true. But the polls clearly say he has a chance, and that the election is close. If the metadata is right - and I believe Silver and Wang are right - then Clinton has a lead but not a safe one, and if the election were held today there is about a one in four chance Trump would win. If the polls go three percent towards Trump he is a 50-50 shot at worst, maybe even a bit better. If they go another 3% towards Clinton, his odds go from one in four to one in a zillion. That’s what swaying \*just one voter out of 33 \*does. We can tell each other on the SDMB all we want that Trump is a buffoon, but the fact is that this is a close race and he’s got a shot at winning. An honest-to-God chance. Yes, there’s a lot of time between now and November and Trump is an undisciplined loudmouth who has plenty of time to self-immolate. However… there’s also the danger of low expectations. if the GOP convention ISN’T a school bus fire, it’ll be considered a modest success. If Trump shows up for the televised debates with his underwear inside his pants and manages to stay on message without going apeshit, it’ll be considered a win. In 2008 Sarah Palin sounded like an idiot in her VP debate with Joe Biden, but she did not sound like a drooling imbecile or fly into a rage; she remained composed, friendly-looking, and kept on message, and afterwards people talked about how she did okay despite the fact that to my eyes as an outside observer she was clearly a fool. The expectations were lower than her performance, so the general response was positive. The same will be said of Trump. If he exceeds the bottom-of-the-barrel expectations, his poll numbers will tick up. And he is not far behind. I mean, let’s be honest, Smapti is probably right; the debates rarely change anyone’s mind, because by then people have decided and they see what they want to see. But it’s not impossible for the debates to change minds; Reagan-Carter was close until their debate; polls gave Reagan a lead of 2-3 points, and the debate turned it into a rout. So it’s not impossible the debate could change minds, especially given that Trump is… different. Were I to advise Clinton I would absolutely work on coming up with a strategy to enrage Trump and make him totally lose it on national TV. Were I to advise Trump, **I would assume Clinton’s advisers were doing exactly that** , and would prep him by having him practice against a Clinton stand-in trying every trick in the book to make him go gorillashit. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2433 "2016-07-12T19:22:36Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Expectations for the convention are so low that basic competence will be seen as #Winning! At this point, just getting through without a Ted Cruz suppoerter being murdered on camera by a neo-nazi will be seen as winning. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2434 "2016-07-12T20:14:35Z")
Gingrich futures on predicti have shot up to 72% in 24 hours. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2435 "2016-07-12T20:24:47Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Gingrich futures on predicti have shot up to 72% in 24 hours. Maybe insiders making a buck? ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2436 "2016-07-12T21:19:35Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Maybe insiders making a buck? Fox apparently just announced it was suspending his job as a contributer, which seems to make it all but certain he’s signing up with Trump. Between Trump, Newt and the Clintons. this election is turning into some sort of weird 90’s nostalgia tour. I predict Hillary will select Judge Ito as her running mate. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2437 "2016-07-12T21:28:11Z")
Gingrich makes a lot of sense for Trump. Perfect match if you like that sort of thing. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2438 "2016-07-12T21:34:31Z")
A person who hasn’t been in power in 17 years, with almost as many divorces as the Donald\*, was run out of DC, and makes Dick Cheney seem current and up-to-date? Perfect. \*Don’t forget, the Newt served one wife divorce papers while she was lying in a hospital bed. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2439 "2016-07-12T21:42:50Z")
How big does “number of divorces” usually figure into your voting choices? ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2440 "2016-07-12T21:51:21Z")
I guess it depends on how important “family values” are to you, like the Republicans constantly tell me they should be. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2441 "2016-07-12T21:57:38Z")
> [@Jack\_Batty](#): > > I guess it depends on how important “family values” are to you, like the Republicans constantly tell me they should be. Look how many families they’ve had. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2442 "2016-07-12T22:01:12Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > How big does “number of divorces” usually figure into your voting choices? To me? Not at all. [To others…?](http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/07/2016-donald-trump-religion-christian-conservatives-republican-party-gop-faith-voters-evangelicals-214037) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901.md?page=121) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901.md?page=123)